Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

hometruths

A Shropshire Lad wrote: »

The British Home Secretary said this morning that NI should be treated no differently than the rest of the UK in any deal

If Boris's proposal does propose some divergence for NI then clearly his cabinet arent fully behind it !

That's interesting. I wonder is that down to interpretation - i.e NI will be treated the same as UK in that they have all the advantages of participating in future UK trade deals, but will have the added advantage of frictionless trade with EU.

An English Home Secretary could conceivably think it is not a problem if NI is treated the same or better than the rest of the UK.

That would be to misunderstand the DUP though!!

Rjd2

https://twitter.com/PhilipHammondUK/status/1183151171365720066

He's probably peaked in politics as he has a very dour sort of persona which these days is suicide for politicians, but that's so ****ing spot on.

I can understand a lot of the annoyance from the likes of Stewart, Soames etc who constantly are told they are not Brexity enough by people who voted against leaving 3 ****ing times. :rolleyes:

Strazdas

Whilst Johnson's proposals are theoretically 'good' for NI, many Remain supporters and analysts are suggesting it would be a terrible outcome for GB, an ultra hard right wing Brexit.

Igotadose

Strazdas wrote: »

Whilst Johnson's proposals are theoretically 'good' for NI, many Remain supporters and analysts are suggesting it would be a terrible outcome for GB, an ultra hard right wing Brexit.

The UDF and UVF are saying if NI is in some different part of the UK post-Brexit, still in the EU if not in name, they're going to start protesting, as did the TUV(?) pol McAllister yesterday on LBC. So, if the 'down the Irish Sea border' happens, what next if the Loyalist types start throwing bombs? HMG policing Belfast to restrain Unionists?

The UVF/UDFstatements were in today's Times (I don't have it in front of me unfortunately. They also quoted some local Pol with 'knowledge' of the UVF that said they were contemplating protesting and it would make the 'Protests of 2013' look small.)


The TUV guy said the DUP didn't represent all of the NI Unionist community, not extreme enough I suppose.

ancapailldorcha

Rjd2 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/PhilipHammondUK/status/1183151171365720066

He's probably peaked in politics as he has a very dour sort of persona which these days is suicide for politicians, but that's so ****ing spot on.

I can understand a lot of the annoyance from the likes of Stewart, Soames etc who constantly are told they are not Brexity enough by people who voted against leaving 3 ****ing times. :rolleyes:

He has no incentive to play the game any more so he probably feels that he can be more forthright now. His nickname, "Spreadsheet Phil" is probably based on his tendency to focus on details as well as his dry demeanour.

To be honest, I'll always remember Goldsmith as the man who made a fuss about how much of a Bollywood fan he is but couldn't name a single actor/actress or film.

lawred2

threeball wrote: »

The UK economy is predicted to retract by 7% after brexit. The recession only brought a 4.9% drop. And not all cuts have been removed since so it will be 7% coming off a lower base. There was no red bus with vote for eternal recession on the side. A referendum based on emotion and hate.

Is that a Johnson deal Brexit? Or a no deal Brexit.

Strazdas

Igotadose wrote: »

The UDF and UVF are saying if NI is in some different part of the UK post-Brexit, still in the EU if not in name, they're going to start protesting, as did the TUV(?) pol McAllister yesterday on LBC. So, if the 'down the Irish Sea border' happens, what next if the Loyalist types start throwing bombs? HMG policing Belfast to restrain Unionists?

The UVF/UDFstatements were in today's Times (I don't have it in front of me unfortunately. They also quoted some local Pol with 'knowledge' of the UVF that said they were contemplating protesting and it would make the 'Protests of 2013' look small.)


The TUV guy said the DUP didn't represent all of the NI Unionist community, not extreme enough I suppose.

Yes, I saw that on Twitter. Threats of Loyalist paramilitary action if there is a border down the Irish Sea.

The Sunday Times too has a piece saying that Johnson has been privately warned by security experts that No Deal will set off violence in NI for certain.

Charles Babbage

Strazdas wrote: »

Yes, I saw that on Twitter. Threats of Loyalist paramilitary action if there is a border down the Irish Sea.

The Sunday Times too has a piece saying that Johnson has been privately warned by security experts that No Deal will set off violence in NI for certain.

PSNI Chief Constable Simon Byrne spoke directly to Boris Johnson last week and you can be sure that he was quite clear that there was a problem. Unfortunately, some other elements like DUP would have been spinning a false prospect in this respect.

RobMc59

Strazdas wrote: »

Whilst Johnson's proposals are theoretically 'good' for NI, many Remain supporters and analysts are suggesting it would be a terrible outcome for GB, an ultra hard right wing Brexit.

Johnson is making concessions if this is true that the proposal is a border in the Irish sea. But if the EU waters down the backstop this is a major concession however it is dressed up by EU hardliners.

LeinsterDub

RobMc59 wrote: »

Johnson is making concessions if this is true that the proposal is a border in the Irish sea. But if the EU waters down the backstop this is a major concession however it is dressed up by EU hardliners.

The backstop is the backstop. There is no way to water it down.

RobMc59

LeinsterDub wrote: »

RobMc59 wrote: »

Johnson is making concessions if this is true that the proposal is a border in the Irish sea. But if the EU waters down the backstop this is a major concession however it is dressed up by EU hardliners.

The backstop is the backstop. There is no way to water it down.

Surely if anyone has the option to vote whether they wish to continue in the backstop in future,then that is a concession to the UK.

LeinsterDub

RobMc59 wrote: »

Surely if anyone has the option to vote whether they wish to continue in the backstop in future,then that is a concession to the UK.

And then it's not a backstop, it's the same as saying a time limited backstop

trellheim

Reminders :

1. Tusk has given till close of business Tuesday to see if an agreement can be forged.
2. No-one has seen ANY paperwork on this ( as the UK is refusing to share ) outside the tunnel

3. Gay marriage and abortion comes to NI on the 21st if the assembly isnt up and running so thats extra pressure on the DUP

Kermit.de.frog

EU ambassadors to be briefed by Barnier on talks this evening at 5 pm.

Might get a few leaks after on the state of play.

Kermit.de.frog

Strazdas wrote: »

Yes, I saw that on Twitter. Threats of Loyalist paramilitary action if there is a border down the Irish Sea.

The Sunday Times too has a piece saying that Johnson has been privately warned by security experts that No Deal will set off violence in NI for certain.

I don't buy this. The world has changed radically in 20 years.

People have much better quality of life and, frankly, I think most are more interested in their smartphones than getting involved in stuff like violence and protest.

You might get a few idiots but life has changed hugely in Ireland north/south.

54and56

schmittel wrote: »

That's interesting. I wonder is that down to interpretation - i.e NI will be treated the same as UK in that they have all the advantages of participating in future UK trade deals, but will have the added advantage of frictionless trade with EU.

An English Home Secretary could conceivably think it is not a problem if NI is treated the same or better than the rest of the UK.

That would be to misunderstand the DUP though!!

Exactly this. The proposed arrangement will be sold as NI getting a UK+ type deal. They will have all the advantages of exiting the EU and remain in UK customs etc but in addition will also be in the EU SM and CU so best of both worlds.

Instead of using their infamous Constructive Ambiguity to promise something to the EU/RoI in the Dec 2017 political declaration which they never intended to adhere to be have inconveniently been held to by EU/RoI they will now have to use that same skill to sell the proposed deal to the DUP so they can climb down from their isolated position and claim it as a victory they helped deliver in partnership with BoJo. Not sure Sammy and Nigel will toe the line but if the DUP are masters at anything it is self preservation so selling a 180 degree U-Turn as what they had been aiming for all along in the interests of the whole of NI will be a walk in the park for them so long as they can bring themselves to actually do it.

Kermit.de.frog

DUP are going to go mental though when they see the actual legal text which will explicitly detail the range of checks at ports to protect the single market.

Can't sugar coat legal text...

jimmycrackcorm

Strazdas wrote: »

Yes, I saw that on Twitter. Threats of Loyalist paramilitary action if there is a border down the Irish Sea.

The Sunday Times too has a piece saying that Johnson has been privately warned by security experts that No Deal will set off violence in NI for certain.

But what exactly are the loyalists going to priest against? There won't be any visible targets such as customs posts at the border.

Quite frankly, life in NI continues on as it is now. They are still under British rule.

It's laughable when you think that they might need to protest with placards that say "We want 10% tariffs now!"

trellheim

Even if they get a deal I cant see this getting done before Oct 31, the only thing that might happen is a confirmatory vote in Parliament to show Johnson has the numbers on it . We are looking at a six month extension Id say

threeball

lawred2 wrote: »

threeball wrote: »

The UK economy is predicted to retract by 7% after brexit. The recession only brought a 4.9% drop. And not all cuts have been removed since so it will be 7% coming off a lower base. There was no red bus with vote for eternal recession on the side. A referendum based on emotion and hate.

Is that a Johnson deal Brexit? Or a no deal Brexit.

No Deal but still a big contraction in the event of a deal as they're denying themselves access to markets they currently have deals with through the EU

threeball

threeball wrote: »

lawred2 wrote: »

threeball wrote: »

The UK economy is predicted to retract by 7% after brexit. The recession only brought a 4.9% drop. And not all cuts have been removed since so it will be 7% coming off a lower base. There was no red bus with vote for eternal recession on the side. A referendum based on emotion and hate.

Is that a Johnson deal Brexit? Or a no deal Brexit.

No Deal but still a big contraction in the event of a deal as they're denying themselves access to markets they currently have deals with through the EU

Apologies, misread the tweet. Johnson's deal would mean a 7% contraction. God knows what a no deal would do in that case. You'd have to imagine it would be in excess of 10%.

Kermit.de.frog

Apparently consent will now not be a rolling issue. Instead it will be a 'one off event', source retweeted by Peter Foster. 'Single market and Customs Union, in or out'.

I am smelling a referendum here...

gooch2k9

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Apparently consent will now not be a rolling issue. Instead it will be a 'one off event', source retweeted by Peter Foster. 'Single market and Customs Union, in or out'.

I am smelling a referendum here...

If that's the way it is going it needs to be spelled out very clearly that it is not a border poll, otherwise the vote will be poisoned by lies regarding a United Ireland.

Strazdas

threeball wrote: »

Apologies, misread the tweet. Johnson's deal would mean a 7% contraction. God knows what a no deal would do in that case. You'd have to imagine it would be in excess of 10%.

7% represents a massive blow to the economy, these are recession type figures. No wonder Remainers are totally against this.

It shows you how toxic and warped Brexit has become that a Govt is thinking of voluntarily inflicting this type of damage onto its economy, knowing that this will be the outcome.

CrabRevolution

Joe_ Public wrote: »

That is the paradox that has always confronted Johnson and still trying to figure out how he's dealing with it - the line he sells to his own party and the British public that no deal is fine and opens up all these new exciting trading opportunities for them against the line he peddles to the EU that no deal will be such an unmitigated disaster for everybody that they really need to stop their bullying and offer us more concessions before it's too late. His entire position and strategy based on that fundamental dishonesty, i dont believe any good can come of it.

I've always thought this strange too. How can they simultaneously:

-Threaten the EU with no deal, saying it will be such a catastrophe that the EU are morally obliged to give in to the UK's demands.

-Tell the UK public that not only is no deal not a problem, but that any issues which do arise can be made disappear by simply planning for them

An Ciarraioch

The Commission has released a statement, unfortunately it tells us precisely nothing:

https://twitter.com/DanielFerrie/status/1183411987180670976

fash

lawred2 wrote: »

threeball wrote: »

The UK economy is predicted to retract by 7% after brexit. The recession only brought a 4.9% drop. And not all cuts have been removed since so it will be 7% coming off a lower base. There was no red bus with vote for eternal recession on the side. A referendum based on emotion and hate.

Is that a Johnson deal Brexit? Or a no deal Brexit.

Johnson's is -7%, no deal Is -8%:
Tweet

An Ciarraioch

James Crisp slightly more informative - looks unlikely for the Johnson plan to be debated on Thursday:

https://twitter.com/JamesCrisp6/status/1183411208759775232

Tippex

an extension is the only thing that will work now there is not enough time

RobMc59

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

EU ambassadors to be briefed by Barnier on talks this evening at 5 pm.

Might get a few leaks after on the state of play.

He appears to be remaining fairly tight lipped, I would prefer to remain in the EU and totally disagree with the behaviour of johnson and co but I believe there is a growing suspicion that the EU is making concessions behind closed doors-despite the official EU line a no deal brexit would`nt unduly concern them the "tunnel"negotiations are`nt just for the UK`s benefit imo..