Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

An Ciarraioch

RobMc59 wrote: »

He appears to be remaining fairly tight lipped, I would prefer to remain in the EU and totally disagree with the behaviour of johnson and co but I believe there is a growing suspicion that the EU is making concessions behind closed doors-despite the official EU line a no deal brexit would`nt unduly concern them the "tunnel"negotiations are`nt just for the UK`s benefit imo..

Except it hasn't even got as far as the tunnel yet - still at the technical stage, and seeing if what has been outlined to date is practical.

briany

Tippex wrote: »

an extension is the only thing that will work now there is not enough time

I expect Johnson to argue that there is enough time within the current extension to get the deal agreed and voted upon. I also expect that this is a play for time. If he can successfully wriggle out of requesting the extension somehow, the ball is in his opponents' court. How would Labour, the Lib Dems and the SNP explain themselves being so against no-deal that they voted for no-deal?

Tippex

briany wrote: »

I expect Johnson to argue that there is enough time within the current extension to get the deal agreed and voted upon. I also expect that this is a play for time. If he can successfully wriggle out of requesting the extension somehow, the ball is in his opponents' court. How would Labour, the Lib Dems and the SNP explain themselves being so against no-deal that they voted for no-deal?

I expect the EU to force his hand by saying they have to ask for an extension

RobMc59

briany wrote: »

I expect Johnson to argue that there is enough time within the current extension to get the deal agreed and voted upon. I also expect that this is a play for time. If he can successfully wriggle out of requesting the extension somehow, the ball is in his opponents' court. How would Labour, the Lib Dems and the SNP explain themselves being so against no-deal that they voted for no-deal?

As you say,that would put the onus and pressure firmly on the EU-I hope they call his bluff as it appears his recklessness will take it to the wire or even over the precipice.

threeball

Strazdas wrote: »

threeball wrote: »

Apologies, misread the tweet. Johnson's deal would mean a 7% contraction. God knows what a no deal would do in that case. You'd have to imagine it would be in excess of 10%.

7% represents a massive blow to the economy, these are recession type figures. No wonder Remainers are totally against this.

It shows you how toxic and warped Brexit has become that a Govt is thinking of voluntarily inflicting this type of damage onto its economy, knowing that this will be the outcome.

30% deeper than the last recession and they haven't even fully recovered from that one. It's like playing Russian roulette with a weapon with a magazine rather than a barrel

Sam Russell

Am I right in thinking that if BJ does not ask for an extension, the opposition can get a VONC and then install a caretaker Gov, ask for the extension, and then set up a 2nd ref, and when it is done, call a GE.

They would not require a huge amount of time to do all of that if they get the extension. I would think a May GE might be ironic.

CelticRambler

RobMc59 wrote: »

He appears to be remaining fairly tight lipped ... I believe there is a growing suspicion that the EU is making concessions behind closed doors

I'm more inclined to think that the "Merkel leak" was yet another spectacular backfire, and the EU are putting the Johnson-Cummings machine to the test: the meeting with Varadkar, those preliminary talks immediately afterwards, now these discussions - not a peep from Downing Street.

After that leak and that poster, someone in the EU sat Johnson down and said Listen Boris, you can go all out Trump if you want, but remember we hold the keys to all the Channel Ports, so get your house in order or you'll get your Battle of Britain alright, but without all the Allies that helped you win the the last one.

RobMc59

CelticRambler wrote: »

I'm more inclined to think that the "Merkel leak" was yet another spectacular backfire, and the EU are putting the Johnson-Cummings machine to the test: the meeting with Varadkar, those preliminary talks immediately afterwards, now these discussions - not a peep from Downing Street.

After that leak and that poster, someone in the EU sat Johnson down and said Listen Boris, you can go all out Trump if you want, but remember we hold the keys to all the Channel Ports, so get your house in order or you'll get your Battle of Britain alright, but without all the Allies that helped you win the the last one.

Cummings is a thoroughly odious character and johnson thinks if he stamps his feet he`ll get his own way(must have been a spoilt brat as a child!)-the sooner he is resigned to history the better-only problem is though there`s no outstanding candidate to lead the UK out of this self inflicted dystopian situation imo.

NotToScale

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Apparently consent will now not be a rolling issue. Instead it will be a 'one off event', source retweeted by Peter Foster. 'Single market and Customs Union, in or out'.

I am smelling a referendum here...

They're going to have to have an extension though! I mean it's entirely impossible to have a referendum setup and complete by Halloween. This should have been organised 6+ months ago.

The whole thing is a complete and utter farce and it's endangering stability in the UK both economic and political as well as undermining all sorts of long term planning in the UK, EU and beyond.

How anyone would ever trust the UK as a destination for investment again for a very long time is beyond me. The words "political instability" tend to frighten a lot of people off, particularly when that instability related to the regulation of things that impact business and investment.

At a whim they've basically pulled the rug out from under vast numbers of business both multinational and domestic and we've someone installed in No. 10 who has said "f### business".

It's looking more like Russia - a place where business can be pulled apart by political manoeuvring, rather than the great trading nation they imagine themselves to be.

Edgware

CelticRambler wrote: »

I'm more inclined to think that the "Merkel leak" was yet another spectacular backfire, and the EU are putting the Johnson-Cummings machine to the test: the meeting with Varadkar, those preliminary talks immediately afterwards, now these discussions - not a peep from Downing Street.

After that leak and that poster, someone in the EU sat Johnson down and said Listen Boris, you can go all out Trump if you want, but remember we hold the keys to all the Channel Ports, so get your house in order or you'll get your Battle of Britain alright, but without all the Allies that helped you win the the last one.

History has shown us that we cannot trust the British, ( as the D.U.P. will learn) But we make a big mistake if we think that we can trust the French, Germans etc.

Capt'n Midnight

Strazdas wrote: »

7% represents a massive blow to the economy, these are recession type figures. No wonder Remainers are totally against this.

It shows you how toxic and warped Brexit has become that a Govt is thinking of voluntarily inflicting this type of damage onto its economy, knowing that this will be the outcome.

The huge difference is that our economy is growing at 6% a year while theirs isn't.

For us is a one year hiatus in growth and new job creation, it won't be fun but it won' t be a disaster.

For the UK it's at three to four years of growth wiped out, and years of the enormity to sink in as people realise just what's gone.

For NI it's even worse as it's a decade of growth gone and the light at the end of tunnel has gotten a lot dimmer.


Brexit uncertainty is death by 1,000 cuts for every industry where uncertainty means capital investment is being delayed. Most of the big companies are multinational so if there's a hard Brexit then sterling will drop so redundancy payments would be cheaper. Really, really sneaky companies might even decide that EU rules and European courts won't apply and just walk away.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-50027523

A march has been held over the proposed closure of the Orb steelworks in Newport with 380 jobs at risk.
...
Tata said it would have cost £50m to upgrade the Orb site to make it competitive.

threeball

Edgware wrote: »

CelticRambler wrote: »

I'm more inclined to think that the "Merkel leak" was yet another spectacular backfire, and the EU are putting the Johnson-Cummings machine to the test: the meeting with Varadkar, those preliminary talks immediately afterwards, now these discussions - not a peep from Downing Street.

After that leak and that poster, someone in the EU sat Johnson down and said Listen Boris, you can go all out Trump if you want, but remember we hold the keys to all the Channel Ports, so get your house in order or you'll get your Battle of Britain alright, but without all the Allies that helped you win the the last one.

History has shown us that we cannot trust the British, ( as the D.U.P. will learn) But we make a big mistake if we think that we can trust the French, Germans etc.

If the countries of Europe can't rely on one another the project is doomed. Rampant nationalism is setting the world back significantly and unless we integrate further we're only heading for conflict and our ultimate downfall.

Professor Moriarty

NotToScale wrote: »

They're going to have to have an extension though! I mean it's entirely impossible to have a referendum setup and complete by Halloween. This should have been organised 6+ months ago.

The whole thing is a complete and utter farce and it's endangering stability in the UK both economic and political as well as undermining all sorts of long term planning in the UK, EU and beyond.

How anyone would ever trust the UK as a destination for investment again for a very long time is beyond me. The words "political instability" tend to frighten a lot of people off, particularly when that instability related to the regulation of things that impact business and investment.

At a whim they've basically pulled the rug out from under vast numbers of business both multinational and domestic and we've someone installed in No. 10 who has said "f### business".

It's looking more like Russia - a place where business can be pulled apart by political manoeuvring, rather than the great trading nation they imagine themselves to be.

Johnson will end up dead in a ditch if there is an extension.

Professor Moriarty

Edgware wrote: »

History has shown us that we cannot trust the British, ( as the D.U.P. will learn) But we make a big mistake if we think that we can trust the French, Germans etc.

The DUP are British.

Capt'n Midnight

threeball wrote: »

30% deeper than the last recession and they haven't even fully recovered from that one. It's like playing Russian roulette with a weapon with a magazine rather than a barrel

Also everyone was in recession last time except maybe Canada and Norway.

This time it will be just the UK.

Anything worth salvaging will be bought up and probably asset stripped by foreign investors once the £ drops enough.

Professor Moriarty

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Also everyone was in recession last time except maybe Canada and Norway.

This time it will be just the UK.

Anything worth salvaging will be bought up and probably asset stripped by foreign investors once the £ drops enough.

Not all will be foreign though.

An Ciarraioch

Tony Connelly highlighting the EU reservations with the proposal - rebates wouldn't be agreed even by the end of the transition period, rules of origin would be incredibly complex, and there are also fraud concerns:

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1183452490752286722

Ludo

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The DUP are British.

Yawn...They are not "real" British in the eyes of the Tories and never will be. They are Irish who are part of the UK...not British.

Strazdas

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Tony Connelly highlighting the EU reservations with the proposal - rebates wouldn't be agreed even by the end of the transition period, rules of origin would be incredibly complex, and there are also fraud concerns:

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1183452490752286722

It all sounds rather messy and 'cake and eat it'. The British trying to design their own WA by cherry picking bits and pieces from all over the place.

I'd hazard a guess this won't end in agreement.

An Ciarraioch

Strazdas wrote: »

It all sounds rather messy and 'cake and eat it'. The British trying to design their own WA by cherry picking bits and pieces from all over the place.

I'd hazard a guess this won't end in agreement.

The bigger question being, why was Leo so desperate to go for this now, when he dismissed similar ideas before?

gooch2k9

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

The bigger question being, why was Leo so desperate to go for this now, when he dismissed similar ideas before?

I wonder has another EU leader ruled out any more extensions. They'd be within their rights.

Professor Moriarty

Ludo wrote: »

Yawn...They are not "real" British in the eyes of the Tories and never will be. They are Irish who are part of the UK...not British.

They are British nonetheless. They're entitled to their identity, especially as they are British citizens.

Professor Moriarty

gooch2k9 wrote: »

I wonder has another EU leader ruled out any more extensions. They'd be within their rights.

Why would they do that?

VinLieger

Edgware wrote: »

History has shown us that we cannot trust the British, ( as the D.U.P. will learn) But we make a big mistake if we think that we can trust the French, Germans etc.

Ahh your a believer in that bus so many people have said is coming to run us over? Yet 3 years later theres still no sign

ancapailldorcha

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

They are British nonetheless. They're entitled to their identity, especially as they are British citizens.

I disagree. There is definitely a specific Northern Irish Unionist identity and culture. I've never met a Unionist who thinks that they are British or English. They want to stay in the Union but they know full well that they are not British.

Professor Moriarty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I disagree. There is definitely a specific Northern Irish Unionist identity and culture. I've never met a Unionist who thinks that they are British or English. They want to stay in the Union but they know full well that they are not British.

So what is their nationality?

Leroy42

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

The bigger question being, why was Leo so desperate to go for this now, when he dismissed similar ideas before?

And why are the EU putting up with any of this? It appears that the UK want to completely restart of the entire backstop issue, something that was agreed back in Dec 17, without having any actual details of how they would achieve it.

We are basically back to 'alternative arrangements' and 'trust us it will all work out before the transition is over'. The UK have done nothing over the last 6 months to actually resolve any of these issues.

griffdaddy

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

So what is their nationality?

Northern Irish

Professor Moriarty

griffdaddy wrote: »

Northern Irish

Is that what it says on their passports? I thought they were British citizens, loyal to their monarch and attending their parliament in London.

Kermit.de.frog

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

So what is their nationality?

Brirish? :cool: