Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Imreoir2

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

You are I'm afraid incredibly naïve. In fact most of you are naïve if you think the British have to play nice. They don't.

Again, most of you just ignore the HoC votes. This just goes round and round.

The UK cannot inflict anywhere near as much damage on the EU as the atempt would inflict upon themselves. No-deal is a hollow threat as in reality it would only weaken the UK position and make them even more desperate for a deal. The balence of power is already heavily on the EU side and no-deal would only make this worse for the UK.

The Brexit negiotiations are not being carried out between two equal powers. Britain is by far the weaker party and any British threat to "not play nice" will only backfire on them as they have far more to lose than the EU does.

ToBeFrank123

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It's how you described it:

Without the threat of No Deal, there was nothing to bring the EU to the table. We've seen that in recent weeks. When the EU thought Boris was serious about No Deal, they also got serious about negotiations. Its about the only bargaining chip the UK has.

Therefore it is your description.

The EU must deal with the British government, not the HoC. The fact that British democracy has been shown to be a shambles has nothing to do with the EU in negotiations. They must negotiate with the government's representatives.

Do you have any idea how ridiculous Britain looks today? Any idea how much credibility and goodwill they've squandered?

Jesus, can't believe I have to explain this to you.

Let me use a simple analogy.

Hitler made a threat to invade the UK in 1940. Well known fact. Now if I point that out, does that mean I made a threat to invade the UK?

That's literally what you are saying.

I can sense anger on this thread, but making sh*t up like No Deal is your bargaining chip just doesn't wash. Johnson and the ERG have repeatedly said its their bargaining chip. You know this.

Imreoir2

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Without a proper WA, we revert to WTA rules. That's tariffs on our products going into the UK, one of our biggest markets. Its also tarrifs coming the other way, that means an increase in the prices of goods that come from the UK.

The UK is not so important to Ireland anymore. It is only a handful of sectors that have any significant exposure to the British market. A no-deal Brexit would be bad for Ireland, but we do have another 26 nations in our single market and trade deals with half the world to fall back on, the UK will have nothing.

ToBeFrank123

Leroy42 wrote: »

No Deal will of course have a major impact on RoI, not just economically but politically aswell.

But in overall terms it won't have that big effect for the EU. It is like the 39bn. UK seem to think that isca bargaining chip that can be held over the EUs head, but in terms of EU budget it is relatively small. And the price they wanted for it was far too high.

I'm not interested in the impact on continental Europe. I am interested on the impact on Ireland. But at the same time, Ireland is part of Europe.

So to say as Vinlieger said, No Deal will have no impact on Europe simply isn't true. And he knows it. It will have a serious impact on Ireland.

The No Deal threat used by Johnson could have a serious impact on Ireland. We all know that.

Of course he shouldn't use it and I despise the ERG and Johnson as much as the next person. But they have cited it as their main weapon for weeks now. It is why Johnson hate the Benn Act.

Jim2007

fash wrote: »

I want no deal if the alternative is a bad deal - and what I'm seeing right now is lots of bad deal. So that means no deal.

And what do yo actually do the day after No Deal? How are you going to deal with the fact that you have lost trade agreements covering 92% of your exports, preferential access to a wealthy market covering 48% of your exports, loss of passporting of financial services, a failure to get trade schedules agreed at the WTO, No US trade deal, no EU trade deal, no deals with Canada and Japan, no tariffs on imports thus exposing you economy to unrestricted imports from low cost countries such as China etc???

How much pain are you willing to take - tax increases, job losses etc... and more importantly how much do you think the great British public will accept?

Imreoir2

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Johnson and the ERG have repeatedly said its their bargaining chip. You know this.

It's not much of a bargaining chip when using it does more harm to you than your opponent.

Imreoir2

Jim2007 wrote: »

And what do yo actually do the day after No Deal? How are you going to deal with the fact that you have lost trade agreements covering 92% of your exports, preferential access to a wealthy market covering 48% of your exports, loss of passporting of financial services, a failure to get trade schedules agreed at the WTO, No US trade deal, no EU trade deal, no deals with Canada and Japan, no tariffs on imports thus exposing you economy to unrestricted imports from low cost countries such as China etc???

How much pain are you willing to take - tax increases, job losses etc... and more importantly how much do you think the great British public will accept?

I think fash is speaking from an Irish perspective, if the alternative to no-deal is a deal along the lines Johnson has previously proposed, then no-deal is preferable for us.

ToBeFrank123

Imreoir2 wrote: »

The UK is not so important to Ireland anymore. It is only a handful of sectors that have any significant exposure to the British market. A no-deal Brexit would be bad for Ireland, but we do have another 26 nations in our single market and trade deals with half the world to fall back on, the UK will have nothing.

Our Central Bank would appear to disagree. And in these matters I will take on board their views even if I am in the minority about that. I will always listen to the experts.

Joe_ Public

Jim2007 wrote: »

And what do yo actually do the day after No Deal? How are you going to deal with the fact that you have lost trade agreements covering 92% of your exports, preferential access to a wealthy market covering 48% of your exports, loss of passporting of financial services, a failure to get trade schedules agreed at the WTO, No US trade deal, no EU trade deal, no deals with Canada and Japan, no tariffs on imports thus exposing you economy to unrestricted imports from low cost countries such as China etc???

How much pain are you willing to take - tax increases, job losses etc... and more importantly how much do you think the great British public will accept?

Whatever slim notions i had about them being truly serious about all the new great trading opportunities that would open up on the global market, they were blown to smithereens when Liz Truss was appointed the trade secretary. She is probably the worst and least impressive politician i've ever witnessed and there is massive competition for that title. When i hear her going on about trading pork to china or whatever other delusional rubbish she comes out with, i just cant believe they're serious about the whole thing, it just has to be a con doesn't it?

ToBeFrank123

Varta wrote: »

Are you sure you aren't living in Westminster and being paid by Cummings?

Nope. And for that lie, you've earned yourself ignore.

VinLieger

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

I can sense anger on this thread, but making sh*t up like No Deal is your bargaining chip just doesn't wash. Johnson and the ERG have repeatedly said its their bargaining chip. You know this.

Im so confused as to where youve gotten this from, No Deal isnt a bargainging chip for either side.... Nobody has ever claimed it was an EU bargaining chip.

trellheim

Calm down folks FGS.

Ireland will have serious problems in a No Deal scenario. But as I think someone said earlier the alternative is worse if it means we fall even farther back in NI so hung for a sheep etc .


To answer a recent point : with TM's deal, if it hadnt been the backstop the ERG didn't like, it would have been something else , level playing field and what not would have been the rock on which it foundered.


Also : never seen such quiet out of Brussels - must be something going on.

Imreoir2

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Our Central Bank would appear to disagree. And in these matters I will take on board their views even if I am in the minority about that. I will always listen to the experts.

Perhaps I am wrong, but the central bank are suggesting that the impact of Brexit on the Irish economey would be to reduce our growth rate to being in line with the EU average, with the posibility that we might enter a slight recession in a worst case scenario?

It's not great, but its not the negative 12-16% devestation that some parts of the UK, including NI are projected to suffer.

VinLieger

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Our Central Bank would appear to disagree. And in these matters I will take on board their views even if I am in the minority about that. I will always listen to the experts.

Great straw man post, not addressing the point at all and switching to the only thing you seem to have in your arsenal.

Yes the central banks predictions arent great but they aren't ad bad as they would have been say 10 years ago due to our reducing reliance on the UK and with the EU behind us it is absolutely recoverable from whereas the UK will have nobody to lean on.

Joe_ Public

trellheim wrote: »

Calm down folks FGS.

Ireland will have serious problems in a No Deal scenario. But as I think someone said earlier the alternative is worse if it means we fall even farther back in NI so hung for a sheep etc .


To answer a recent point : with TM's deal, if it hadnt been the backstop the ERG didn't like, it would have been something else , level playing field and what not would have been the rock on which it foundered.


Also : never seen such quiet out of Brussels - must be something going on.

Or nothing going on which is my, possibly losing, bet. Everything about the EU is too big and too unwieldy to avoid leaks, so if there was anything concrete coming out i think we'd know about it or at least know that there was something afoot. Like i said, i could be wrong, but my money still on no news to report.

ToBeFrank123

VinLieger wrote: »

Yes the central banks predictions arent great but they aren't ad bad as they would have been say 10 years ago due to our reducing reliance on the UK and with the EU behind us it is absolutely recoverable from whereas the UK will have nobody to lean on.

Wow, you finally concede I was right. Took you long enough and only after you threw plenty of insults out.

There will be a serious short and medium term impact to Ireland.

Varta

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Nope. And for that lie, you've earned yourself ignore.

It was a question. Questions should always be welcome as they help to clarify things.

ToBeFrank123

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Perhaps I am wrong, but the central bank are suggesting that the impact of Brexit on the Irish economey would be to reduce our growth rate to being in line with the EU average, with the posibility that we might enter a slight recession in a worst case scenario?

It's not great, but its not the negative 12-16% devestation that some parts of the UK, including NI are projected to suffer.

Our growth is 4.5% this year. A 6% decline would push us into recession. That means cutbacks.

Yes agreed, the UK may have it worse. But it will also have a serious impact here.

jm08

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Our Central Bank would appear to disagree. And in these matters I will take on board their views even if I am in the minority about that. I will always listen to the experts.

The Central Bank is saying that 2020 will be bad, but will start recovering in 2021. (Economic growth forecast -

GDP - No Deal: 2020 0.8%; 2021: +1.9%.

GDP - With Deal: 2020: 4.3; 2021: 3.9%.
https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2019/1011/1082492-central-bank-forecast/

NotToScale

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Perhaps I am wrong, but the central bank are suggesting that the impact of Brexit on the Irish economey would be to reduce our growth rate to being in line with the EU average, with the posibility that we might enter a slight recession in a worst case scenario?

It's not great, but its not the negative 12-16% devestation that some parts of the UK, including NI are projected to suffer.

You're not wrong. The Central Bank models predict a slowing of growth and an opportunity cost in terms of lost growth, rather than some kind of dramatic contraction.

Personally, I think it's going to hit different aspects of the economy very differently.

For example it could have quite a strongly negative impact on agrifood, as that is the area that is most impacted by potential tariffs. A lot of Irish services sector stuff will be relatively unimpacted as there are no likely tariffs or at least small ones, at least assuming that the UK at most mirrors the general EU external tariffs. For a lot of businesses the slide in the value of £ vs € could be a lot more significant than tariffs - i.e. loss of UK spending power in real terms. You've also a lot of potential issues (both directions) with certification of goods, services, standards, qualifications and so on. Although, between the UK and Ireland there probably not as bad as between the UK and some other countries in the EU.

There's likely to be a positive impact in some areas of the Irish economy where businesses have refocused investment here to escape Brexit and maintain access to the EU market. There's a lot of that in finance, tech and even some areas of manufacturing and those are the areas that tend to drive our growth figures.

I don't see UK supply chains being able to switch away from EU food imports very quickly anyway, so I would suspect you're going to see a UK desperate deal to avoid tariffs either at the last minute or a month or so after Brexit.

In the medium term, Irish agriculture and agrifood can find other markets. There are some products very exposed to the UK, but it's far from all of them and we have successfully developed other markets. Also a lot of the products are quite bulk and generic, e.g. beef and unbranded dairy - predominantly butter, milk, food ingredients and so on.

A lot of branded Irish consumer agrifood products will probably end up seeing significantly increased domestic demand if UK competitors are effectively tarrifed out of the Irish market, and that could actually save quite a lot of them. We are actually the UK's #1 food export market by a country mile. So there's a vast amount of UK product potentially going to be becoming quite uncompetitive here and it's mostly highly branded stuff.

There'll undoubtedly be an impact here, but I think compared to what could happen in the UK, it will be hitting a few speed bumps as opposed to driving off a cliff.

It definitely won't be pleasant and there will be disruption, but I would also caution against the rather extreme view that keeps getting put across that this will mean complete cut off from the UK market. It won't. It will just add some hurdles and extra costs, but for a lot of businesses I would suspect there will be relatively small impacts. It's the areas where there are traditionally very high tariffs i.e. food and agriculture that will face most problems. It's potentially quite seriously disruptive. We need to prepare and be realistic - it'll be rough but not fatal.

Imreoir2

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Our growth is 4.5% this year. A 6% decline would push us into recession. That means cutbacks.

Yes agreed, the UK may have it worse. But it will also have a serious impact here.

A short lived recession that does not have to mean cutbacks, government could easily cover the shortfall with borrowing.

The reality is that while Ireland will be impacted, we are in a good position to weather the storm and come out the other side without any serious damage, unlike the UK.

VinLieger

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Wow, you finally concede I was right. Took you long enough and only after you threw plenty of insults out.

There will be a serious short and medium term impact to Ireland.

:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

Our growth shrinks but does not go negative for long in any central bank forecasts for no deal. That is not serious and is completely recoverable from thanks tonhaving 26 other countries supporting us.

Varta

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

I'm not interested in the impact on continental Europe. I am interested on the impact on Ireland. But at the same time, Ireland is part of Europe.

So to say as Vinlieger said, No Deal will have no impact on Europe simply isn't true. And he knows it. It will have a serious impact on Ireland.

The No Deal threat used by Johnson could have a serious impact on Ireland. We all know that.

Of course he shouldn't use it and I despise the ERG and Johnson as much as the next person. But they have cited it as their main weapon for weeks now. It is why Johnson hate the Benn Act.

But it is only a weapon in their heads. It doesn't actually exist because, as has been said many times, if they crash out they will be back pronto looking for a deal. The EU knows this and therefore is not bothered by Johnson's threats of 'No Deal'.
At this point I would like the UK to just saddle up their fastest unicorn and ride into the sunlit uplands. They do not belong in the EU. In fact, they do not even belong in Europe. It's a pity Mother Earth wouldn't just squeeze Britain and eject it like a blackhead and thus move us closer to the mainland.
And I don't want to hear from remainers either, because most remainers I know talk about staying in the EU but making radical changes! The UK just doesn't belong in the EU and never did.

jimmycrackcorm

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

You know well that No Deal will do as much damage to Ireland as anywhere.

Tell us what other bargaining chip they had to try to get a deal which can get past the HoC? We've seen a permanent backstop won't get far.

No deal isn't a bargaining chip as the EU knows parliment stint allow that.
They've been very consistent in saying that they are open to discussions that are in line with the WA which is exactly what is happening.

As for Ireland, we'll recover quicker from no deal than we will if we're go back to opening up the troubles via imposition of a border.

NotToScale

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

No deal isn't a bargaining chip as the EU knows parliment stint allow that.
They've been very consistent in saying that they are open to discussions that are in line with the WA which is exactly what is happening.

As for Ireland, we'll recover quicker from no deal than we will if we're go back to opening up the troubles via imposition of a border.

No deal is a bargaining chip in the sense of:"If you don't give me what I want, I will just walk away with nothing!"

There's a huge issue in the sense that the UK side is largely driven by notions of nationalism and sentiment. The EU side is driven by technocratic, facts based analysis and has been rational the whole time.

The EU side knows that the UK can't just storm off in a huff without any deal. So, they have no reason to enter into a discussion with a soon to be ex-member that's basically just throwing a tantrum and threatening to destroy its own economy if it doesn't get its way.

All the EU has to do is just sit calmly and wait for the tantrum to eventually subside - and I guarantee you it will, eventually.

We have a bit of a close focus here due to proximity and access to the UK media. When you get beyond the UK and beyond Ireland, the whole thing is seen in a much more harsh reality of cold daylight.

Igotadose

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

As for Ireland, we'll recover quicker from no deal than we will if we're go back to opening up the troubles via imposition of a border.

Terminology really matters. How do you do 'no deal' without a border? You have to have a border, if NI is outside the EU.

20silkcut

Varta wrote: »

But it is only a weapon in their heads. It doesn't actually exist because, as has been said many times, if they crash out they will be back pronto looking for a deal. The EU knows this and therefore is not bothered by Johnson's threats of 'No Deal'.
At this point I would like the UK to just saddle up their fastest unicorn and ride into the sunlit uplands. They do not belong in the EU. In fact, they do not even belong in Europe. It's a pity Mother Earth wouldn't just squeeze Britain and eject it like a blackhead and thus move us closer to the mainland.
And I don't want to hear from remainers either, because most remainers I know talk about staying in the EU but making radical changes! The UK just doesn't belong in the EU and never did.

The further this goes on the more I think Fintan o toole is right. The fact they were never invaded in any kind of recent history had led to this unbelievable unwarranted hubris.
Every other European country has been humiliated and subjugated at some point in their recent history. Which surely has contributed to the spirit of Co-operation upon which the European Union was founded.
Every other European country has a sense of pragmatism and vulnerability that encourages the spirit of better together.
It’s completely absent in the UK. Even as you highlighted , amongst a lot of remainers. There is this stupefying concept of if it’s not British it’s not right.

Muahahaha

Was listening to Drivetime and they were discussing the threat of loyalists over the weekend when one of them said "we'll see how hard the border is when bombs go off in Limerick". Some unionist was on basically saying that if Boris shafts them then loyalists are going to hit the streets and it would put the flegs protests in the ha'penny place. He seemed to be insinuating that if they dont get what they want then loyalists are going back to terrorism and that it would be our fault. Its not up on Drivetime yet but worth a listen back when it is, I couldnt believe my ears. Also got me thinking they could follow though on the threat and bomb an Irish city within the first few weeks of a deal.

NotToScale

That's the problem with the UK Government and English far right having just jumped onto a Northern Ireland political issue, without any notion of the kinds of problems they are causing.

Whatever about stirring up problems in England, they are literally playing with fire in Northern Ireland and they either don't understand, or more likely don't care about the consequences in terms of whipping up various psychos.

The rhetoric has, arguably, already caused a death in England - Jo Cox.

At the end of this, the entire UK might need the Northern Ireland peace process psychology applied to undo all this damage.

BonnieSituation

Muahahaha wrote: »

Was listening to Drivetime and they were discussing the threat of loyalists over the weekend when one of them said "we'll see how hard the border is when bombs go off in Limerick". Some unionist was on basically saying that if Boris shafts them then loyalists are going to hit the streets and it would put the flegs protests in the ha'penny place. He seemed to be insinuating that if they dont get what they want then loyalists are going back to terrorism and that it would be our fault. Its not up on Drivetime yet but worth a listen back when it is, I couldnt believe my ears. Also got me thinking they could follow though on the threat and bomb an Irish city within the first few weeks of a deal.

There is no hope of Loyalists mustering up the wherewithal for this.

What are they protesting, NI's place in the union?

To take these threats seriously and to back down will be a scar.