Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Capt'n Midnight

Just an aside of how core values are being abandoned

Traditionally the Conservatives would label Labour as tax and spend.

For this election Tories are going on a full on spending spree , to be met by borrowing , because it sure won't be from increased tax revenue.

While the Tories are claiming that Labour will privatise everything take a wild guess at who is thinking of privatising Northern rail the North of England's largest rail commuter service currently owned by Arriva ?

Throw an automatic border poll on in the case of Stormont voting to bring back a border, or at least a referendum to confirm the return of a border.

BonnieSituation

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Much like Mayo in an All Ireland final I'll not get my hopes up. The odds are something will go wrong with this before Sunday.

Don't let BonnieDog read such tomfoolery.

Ribs1234

Water John wrote: »

I have thought about it, why and when Johnson changed his approach and focus. Yes, there are reports that a detail on possible violence in NI affected him but I'm wondering was it something more personal.
I'm thinking of the public bollicking he got from his sister Rachel. Most men would actually be quite affected by how a sister would view their actions.

I thought it was a few weeks ago when he confidently flew to Europe with his ERG mates and then had to sit through their ideas being torn to shreds (followed by the no show press conference). Until then he probably did believe that his experts had a workable solution. Reports at the time suggested he sank lower and lower into his chair as he learned the reasons why the rest of the world called it unicorns. Kudos if he does bounce back with something more realistic though. Being PM must be a steep learning curve for him.

J Mysterio

Im surprised the negotiations have got so far. My feeling was Johnson wanted the extension and a GE to find a majority.

I'm more surprised about EU concessions though. Therenis movement from the UK, but it was/is much more important for them to find a deal. EU seem to have gone farther than could be expected to try accomodate UK's stated position.

Imreoir2

RobMc59 wrote: »

If this touted deal goes through I see no call from NI for a UI in the foreseeable future,-there will be more chance of Scottish independence imo.

If this deal goes through then there is a very good chance that Scotland goes for independance within the next two years. Should that happen, then there is no telling how soon a UI might take place.

Strazdas

RobMc59 wrote: »

If this touted deal goes through I see no call from NI for a UI in the foreseeable future,-there will be more chance of Scottish independence imo.

I've seen commentators from NI say exactly the opposite though......they could see NI drift out of the UK's orbit in the next decade and into the EU's (which would be disastrous for the union).

kowloon

Where does the divorce bill figure in this deal?

Mr.Nice Guy

Tony Connelly update:

Ok, here, late in the day, is what @rtenews understands EU and UK negotiators have agreed as the revised backstop. Bear with me...I’ll break it down into Customs and Consent.

1/ Customs: Northern Ireland is legally in the UK’s customs territory, but would it would apply the EU’s rules and procedures on tariffs.

2/ Northern Ireland would also be aligned with the rules of the single market for industrial goods and agri-food products, meaning both regulatory and customs checks and controls on the Irish Sea for goods going from Great Britain to Northern Ireland.

3/ However, the extent of the controls would be reduced thanks to a series of tariff exemptions.

4/ There would be an automatic exemption for personal goods and possessions carried by those travelling back and forth between Northern Ireland and Great Britain, or, for example, if an individual was moving house.

5/ However, there would potentially be a broader category of goods and tradable products that could be exempt from tariffs and controls if there was no risk whatsoever of such goods entering EU’s single market across the land border.

6/ These categories of goods would be decided on in the future by the Joint Committee of EU and UK officials by consensus.

7/ The Joint Committee was established in the original Withdrawal Agreement as a way for both sides to manage the new arrangements.

8/ The intensity and scope of Irish Sea checks would be limited by a risk-analysis. However, the EU would, through the Joint Committee, have a veto over which kinds of goods would enjoy an exemption from tariffs and controls.

9/ There would also be a system of rebates for goods shipped from Great Britain to Northern Ireland if those goods attracted an EU tariff that was higher than the UK tariff.

10/ Consent: The mechanism essentially provides a qualified opt-out of the revised backstop arrangements via the NI Assembly

11/ Northern Ireland would take on the new customs and regulatory regime for four years after the end of the transition period, which is due to conclude at the end of 2020.

12/ At that point Stormont would have to take a view as to whether or not to opt out of the new arrangements

13/ If Stormont voted to opt out, then there would be a two year cooling off period, during which all sides would have to find an alternative way of complying with the Good Friday Agreement and avoiding a hard border.

14/ If at the end of the two years no alternative was found, then the Protocol would lapse, meaning Ireland would be back to a hard border scenario.

15/ However, if the Stormont Assembly were to collapse during that period, then the default would be that the Protocol arrangements would continue to apply (ie, the revised backstop)

16/ But there will be also be important variations on how Stormont votes for a potential exit.

17/ If Stormont decides to use a simple majority vote, which is seen as less favourable to the DUP, then if that vote to opt out does not succeed, then Stormont would vote again four years on an opt out.

18/ However, if Stormont decided to go for a cross-community majority vote, which is seen as more favourable to the DUP, and the vote did not pass, then Stormont would have to wait another eight years before having another opt-out vote.

19/ Complex, convoluted, politically fraught, but does it square the circle? It’s a weighted approach that gives the DUP cover but the opt out might never take effect because if a hard border looms Sinn Fein could just collapse the assembly and the default is the revised backstop.

On consent this looks good for Sinn Fein, not so much for the DUP. Don't think the business community will be thrilled either. Would be worried what it will mean for cross-community relations.

Seems to be the way it's going though.

Tell me how

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Just an aside of how core values are being abandoned

Traditionally the Conservatives would label Labour as tax and spend.

For this election Tories are going on a full on spending spree , to be met by borrowing , because it sure won't be from increased tax revenue.

While the Tories are claiming that Labour will privatise everything take a wild guess at who is thinking of privatising Northern rail the North of England's largest rail commuter service currently owned by Arriva ?

Do election promises mean anything any more? They are to try to create an impression ahead of the ballot, not a yardstick for use throughout the following government.

Also, given recent Tory announcements on policing (new police numbers announced is simply replacing those numbers cut in recent years) and funding for the NHS (money announced was money trusts had been told to save previously), I don't think anyone is going to place any bets on their promises.

Joe_ Public

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Apparently the UK has now signed up to level playing field conditions on regulations etc with the EU (amazingly) which means that is likely to attract Labour votes.

Possibly. Though if Labour whips its mps to vote against, as they surely must despite what Corbyn has said, any mp breaking it will be automatically deselect from the next GE which is an extremely powerful stimulus to stay in line I'd have thought.

Joe_ Public

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Just an aside of how core values are being abandoned

Traditionally the Conservatives would label Labour as tax and spend.

For this election Tories are going on a full on spending spree , to be met by borrowing , because it sure won't be from increased tax revenue.

While the Tories are claiming that Labour will privatise everything take a wild guess at who is thinking of privatising Northern rail the North of England's largest rail commuter service currently owned by Arriva ?

Fair observation. Ms Thatcher will be spinning in her grave right at this point. I suspect this is a populism thing, an attempt to court the working class which is the battle ground where GE will ultimately be won and lost. Right wing populists will steal the cloak of the left to further their aims, cynical but effective in how it can neuter the opposition. For a party who opposed the introduction of the minimum wage, tories now propose to raise it to an all time high of 10.50. How on earth can that square with the likely hard brexit outcome of reduced workers' rights? Does it even matter? Do trump rust belt voters imagine he'll actually make their lives better? I don't trust sajid javid any more than I trust the pm, looks like another power hungry tory zealot to me, will do whatever it takes to get there.

fash

Enzokk wrote: »

It seems James O'Brien may be right, Johnson has looked over the edge of no-deal and like May before him he has read, or been read, the reports on security and the very real chance of people losing their lives due to Brexit. He has decided he cannot and will not do that and has gone for the option most likely to pass through parliament.

Frankly I don't find that credible: it implies that Johnson has a conscience/is not a sociopath. Johnson only cares about Johnson- the idea that a few dead Irish would worry him is just not believable.

boggerman1

So the dupper loopers issue new tweet stating they can't/won't support Johnson.how predictable.

Hurrache

boggerman1 wrote: »

So the dupper loopers issue new tweet stating they can't/won't support Johnson.how predictable.

I think Johnson may call them out and plough ahead, he may get the numbers without them , hopefully. Either way, they're never getting into 'mainland' government again.

May's nightmarish decision to get into bed with them after an ill-advised election is eating the UK alive.

Hurrache

Hurrache wrote: »

I think Johnson may call them out and plough ahead, he may get the numbers without them , hopefully. Either way, they're never getting into 'mainland' government again.

May's nightmarish decision to get into bed with them after an ill-advised election is eating the UK alive.

I hope he doesn't go with what was proposed if he doesn't need the DUP. That four-year running consent stuff is bad for everyone.

Hurrache

Hurrache wrote: »

I think Johnson may call them out and plough ahead, he may get the numbers without them ,.

Not sure if McDonagh posted this knowing what the DUP just said, but he gets the impression they may be going ahead anyway and continue to try to convince the DUP
[url]

https://twitter.com/BobbyMcDonagh1/status/1184710663274414080?s=19[/url]

It also looks like the DUP are basing their policies on what Tony Connelly tweets a few minutes earlier. For the second time they post just after he posts something hopeful.
[url]

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1184707343835160576?s=19[/url][url][/url]

lawred2

boggerman1 wrote: »

So the dupper loopers issue new tweet stating they can't/won't support Johnson.how predictable.

Fine. Then pull all that consent nonsense out then.

Change it to the only way the NI arrangement can come to an end is through a re-unification vote.

Bent over backwards enough for the DUP.

FrancieBrady

Deleted User wrote: »

I hope he doesn't go with what was proposed if he doesn't need the DUP. That four-year running consent stuff is bad for everyone.

Has that 'rolling consent' thing not been ruled out now according to Tony Connelly and this from Nardelli

https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1184713488016592896

devnull

DUP not on board. Won't be supporting deal as no agreement on consent or customs. Also on VAT.

This just reported on Sky.

lola85

The DUP have been given a free reign to do whatever they want in the north.

Both them and SF are the pathetic.

McMurphy

The DUP say no according to the papers. (There's a surprise)

Boris potentially will go it alone without them, as many here predicted would happen from the start, I can't see the hardliners on "the mainland" being too impressed if a delay/revoke/or no deal ultimately comes around due to the DUP - who are viewed as little else than an "Irish irrelevance" by many in Britain anyway.

I wouldn't be betting too much that this is a done deal, and over the line by a long shot.

cml387

Nigel Evans (ERG) on Today this morning most certainly confirmed that he would vote for the deal and "hoped" that the DUP would come along.

Signs possibly that the DUP/ERG coalition is fracturing?

The high horse brigade

I can't see the DUP getting on board with any deal, they're just electioneering and want to be seen as important. Under the bus with them!

Fr Tod Umptious

Does Johnson need the DUP in the HOC on Saturday ?

Or if he doesn't have the DUP does that mean that he may not have the ERG also ?

I'm sorry I've lost track of the numbers at this point.

Joe_ Public

Remainers won't be complaining about dup this week as them saying no is exactly what they need. Very unlikely the numbers are there without them.

Dyr

The GFA was an agreement between the Irish and British governments at the highest strand level, what this proposal does is allow stormont (that's petition of concern stormont, cash for ash stormont, mars bars on heads stormont) to nullify those strands.

Its the Irish equivalent of Cameron agreeing to an EU referendum in the first place, thinking surely it would never pass.

FG finally reverted to form

Joe_ Public

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Does Johnson need the DUP in the HOC on Saturday ?

Or if he doesn't have the DUP does that mean that he may not have the ERG also ?

I'm sorry I've lost track of the numbers at this point.

Definitely needs them I would think. Also Tory rebels like Dominic grieve and others likely to vote no without at least confirmatory ref. Unless Labour votes could swing it but don't think so.

DOCARCH

Somebody said last night on Newsnight that the DUP don't like solutions, they only like saying no!

Tacitus Kilgore

Correct me if I'm wrong but does this proposal not just kick a potential hard border down the road? Repeatedly?