Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Headshot

dancingwith wrote: »

Beth Rigby
(@BethRigby)
NEW: Am told by govt source that Johnson will tell EU leaders that it’s this deal or no deal - but no delays.
He will not ask for a extension and will not accept one if offered

:pac:

That is for home consumption

He wants to force the UK Parliament to accept the deal

It's his deal or they leave without a deal

LuckyLloyd

SF have allowed the Irish government to represent and champion their concerns throughout the entire process. That is very much in keeping with Republican political tenants. Why do anything different?

Varta

farmchoice wrote: »

well if there are only a handful (3) of them voted for the last brexit deal so unless another 12/15 at least are now going to appear it make no difference

The thing is, all MPs in the HoC knew that their backs weren't really to the wall when May was trying to get her deal through. Now, it's different. I'm not saying that they will come out and support this deal, I'm saying that it is impossible to predict what they will do. Unless of course he already has confirmation from them.

darem93

dancingwith wrote: »

Beth Rigby
(@BethRigby)
NEW: Am told by govt source that Johnson will tell EU leaders that it’s this deal or no deal - but no delays.
He will not ask for a extension and will not accept one if offered

:pac:

Every time he opens his mouth with this sort of stuff he backs himself further into a corner. It's going to look even worse when he has to go back on his word when he's faced with the reality of the situation.

ToBeFrank123

Joe_ Public wrote: »

The Labour leavers have consistently said they'd back a deal that included the concessions suggested in the cross party talks last march/April so they would be seriously compromisising themselves if they caved now.

He would need at least 10 Labour leavers and all of the Conservatives, current and former, to back it. Not sure even that would be enough. 326 is the magic number they say. He'd probably need 20 Labour Leavers to be certain, if there is that many.

Kermit.de.frog

Michael Gove says it's a great deal.

https://twitter.com/jrmaidment/status/1184789613854019584

It is indeed Michael.

LeinsterDub

Jeremy Corbyn has adopted his latest flavour of the week position on brexit. He's now calling for it to be put to a referendum

trellheim

Any analysis of the text from our side yet ?

Varta

It's senior hurling now and the DUP is about to be threatened with a border poll.

Mr.Nice Guy

https://twitter.com/TomMcTague/status/1184733217905168384

my understanding is there’s *not* an incentive for Sinn Fein to collapse Stormont—if there’s no Stormont the UK govt will convene MLAs *anyway* and count a majority of those who vote. Incentive to vote
***Very important***

This sounds worrying from our point of view. Has this been confirmed?

Joe_ Public

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

He would need at least 10 Labour leavers and all of the Conservatives, current and former, to back it. Not sure even that would be enough. 326 is the magic number they say. He'd probably need 20 Labour Leavers to be certain, if there is that many.

I think that would be enough but it's fantasy to think he'll get that. Dominic Grieve won't back it without a sec vote and I suspect there'll be as many rebel tories as Labour leavers.

Rjd2

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Jeremy Corbyn has adopted his latest flavour of the week position on brexit. He's now calling for it to be put to a referendum

A Lib Dem suggested to Boris last month that any deal Boris brought back she vote for it if she could get a guarantee of a referendum on it in a few months.

I actually thought that was a fair compromise,,if Corbyn was to adopt such a policy rather than I'd say fair play.

Varta

darem93 wrote: »

Every time he opens his mouth with this sort of stuff he backs himself further into a corner. It's going to look even worse when he has to go back on his word when he's faced with the reality of the situation.

It's also possible that he's playing a blinder. Who knows really?

Joe_ Public

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Jeremy Corbyn has adopted his latest flavour of the week position on brexit. He's now calling for it to be put to a referendum

In fairness hasn't that always been the basic position? Only tweak now is they'll be pushing for an amendment to get it on the bill.

LeinsterDub

Rjd2 wrote: »

A Lib Dem suggested to Boris last month that any deal Boris brought back she vote for it if she could get a guarantee of a referendum on it in a few months.

I actually thought that was a fair compromise,,if Corbyn was to adopt such a policy rather than I'd say fair play.

Fair play for now. He'll have a new position after tea

Varta

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

He would need at least 10 Labour leavers and all of the Conservatives, current and former, to back it. Not sure even that would be enough. 326 is the magic number they say. He'd probably need 20 Labour Leavers to be certain, if there is that many.

There are certainly way more than twenty Labour Leave constituencies and that might be what counts.

Zubeneschamali

Joe_ Public wrote: »

On what basis should he support it?

Based on Labour policies, he shouldn't. This is a terrrible deal for the UK, worse than May's, and comprehensively fails Labours 6 tests.

Of course, so will every other imaginable Brexit deal, but this particular one is worse than May's deal from a Labour perspective.

LeinsterDub

Joe_ Public wrote: »

In fairness hasn't that always been the basic position? Only tweak now is they'll be pushing for an amendment to get it on the bill.

His position or at least one of them was no to Tory brexit. Labour brexit deal and referendum.

dancingwith

Nigel Farage
(@Nigel_Farage)
The commitment to regulatory alignment in this agreement means that the “new deal” is not Brexit, despite improvements on the customs union.

LuckyLloyd

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

https://twitter.com/TomMcTague/status/1184733217905168384



This sounds worrying from our point of view. Has this been confirmed?

I do not see that in the text

Zubeneschamali

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

So this deal makes it crystal clear that brexit is an English Brexit. From that perspective its a better deal as it gets England out of the EU, solves the NI issue and is way better than no deal.

No, this deal is almost as bad as No Deal long term for Britain. Less disruption in the short term, but a long term disaster. Lots of costings out there, suggesting this one will cost the UK about 7% of GDP vs No Deal at 8.5%.

https://www.ft.com/content/a6f991ba-eda8-11e9-bfa4-b25f11f42901

farmchoice

Varta wrote: »

The thing is, all MPs in the HoC knew that their backs weren't really to the wall when May was trying to get her deal through. Now, it's different. I'm not saying that they will come out and support this deal, I'm saying that it is impossible to predict what they will do. Unless of course he already has confirmation from them.

in fairness its fairly easy to predict want they will do as we have a long list of there previous votes on this matter

obivioulsy until they cast their vote or actually say what they are going to do its just that a prediction.
but based on all previous votes and the political dynamic as it stands a i predict no more then 5 labour votes against and perhaps another 3/5 abstentions.

Joe_ Public

LeinsterDub wrote: »

His position or at least one of them was no to Tory brexit. Labour brexit deal and referendum.

Yes that is correct. But with a referendum amendment that changes things. His cabinet are pushing heavily for the public vote so I think it's reasonable he compromises to that position. Don't see the problem if he does.

Rjd2

dancingwith wrote: »

Nigel Farage
(@Nigel_Farage)
The commitment to regulatory alignment in this agreement means that the “new deal” is not Brexit, despite improvements on the customs union.

Nigel does not want Brexit as without it he becomes irrelevant. He needs this to drag on and he can shout betrayal and promise ponies for all if was in charge of Brexit.

dancingwith

I just cant see how this gets passed without the DUP. Not only their ten votes but also several ERG who say they are taking their lead from the DUP. It would take quite a few Labour votes to get there

LeinsterDub

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Yes that is correct. But with a referendum amendment that changes things. His cabinet are pushing heavily for the public vote so I think it's reasonable he compromises to that position. Don't see the problem if he does.

I've no problem with his position in fact I think it's very reasonable. My issue is that it's taken him 3 and a half years to get to this point via several detours. How are we to know if this is the final destination or just the latest detour?

Varta

farmchoice wrote: »

in fairness its fairly easy to predict want they will do as we have a long list of there previous votes on this matter

obivioulsy until they cast their vote or actually say what they are going to do its just that a prediction.
but based on all previous votes and the political dynamic as it stands a i predict no more then 5 labour votes against and perhaps another 3/5 abstentions.

I really believe it's different this time. Their backs are to the wall. Brexit is rolling. It was stuck in the mud under May, the one thing Johnson has done is to give it momentum. It's a bit like protesters blocking the path of a stopped truck compared to trying to block the path of a moving truck. As silly and juvenile as his cajoling and enthusiasm sounded, it does seem to have worked. It's end game now and resistance in the HoC could collapse.

Joe_ Public

LeinsterDub wrote: »

I've no problem with his position in fact I think it's very reasonable. My issue is that it's taken him 3 and a half years to get to this point via several detours. How are we to know if this is the final destination or just the latest detour?

I don't personally have a huge issue with the clarity of his position but others differ on that. But where I think it might be at is it would be more difficult now to be thinking of even more negotiations down the line so maybe better to have a referendum now instead of election. Maybe he realises that now, not sure. Things change in politics and I think that's how it's shifting, the old Macmillan events dear boy line.

Akrasia

Rjd2 wrote: »

Nigel does not want Brexit as without it he becomes irrelevant. He needs this to drag on and he can shout betrayal and promise ponies for all if was in charge of Brexit.

Nigel and his buddies stand to make an absolute fortune if they know they have means to scupper this deal at the last minute

The GBP has increased in value on the hopes of a deal, and if Farage knows (with insider information) that the deal won't be passed by the HOC, then he and his financial backers can short the GBP and make a killing.

All of this ERG yoyoing saying that the deal is agreed followed by them saying that the ERG won't back the deal is perfect for currency traders to capitalise on a very jittery trading environment (given that they have full control over when these announcements are made to the press)

farmchoice

Varta wrote: »

I really believe it's different this time. Their backs are to the wall. Brexit is rolling. It was stuck in the mud under May, the one thing Johnson has done is to give it momentum. It's a bit like protesters blocking the path of a stopped truck compared to trying to block the path of a moving truck. As silly and juvenile as his cajoling and enthusiasm sounded, it does seem to have worked. It's end game now and resistance in the HoC could collapse.

the only resistance that might have collapsed was the DUP's and it hasn't, this repeated claim by the right wing media that there are a load of labour mp's about to defect to supporting boris johnson's deal is based on nothing only wishful thinking there is zero evidence for it.