Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Akrasia

It's kind of funny that they were so opposed to the backstop, and now it has been removed, and turned into a 'frontstop'

The word 'Frontstop' is already an active hashtag on twitter

VinLieger

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Can't see the DUP ever being happy this. After all, the majority of NI were happy with the GFA and that didn't matter a jot to them. And I wouldn't be confident the UUP will differ substantially to them if the majority of unionists indicate strong opposition to this, which is looking likely.

I don't see this as a good thing at all. It plunges NI into a continuing cycle of arguments about the EU, borders and regulations. It will exacerbate the differences between unionism and nationalism.

Perhaps it won't matter in the long run as a border poll might not be far off.

I disagree if anything this gives moderates on both sides the badly needed middle ground of something they can both agree on to finally shift NI politics away from the extremes of both sides.



That is part of why the DUP hate it it loosens their grips on the protestant vote pool because people simply will not want to vote for a party that is pro a hard border when voting them in very possibly could lead to one.

Varta

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Why didn't they pass May's deal, which was a better deal than this one?

1st meaningful vote on 15th January 2018, 3 Labour MPs voted for it.

2nd meaningful vote on 12th March, again 3 Labour votes.

3rd meaningful vote on 29th March, 5 Labour votes.

Again, it's down to how people react when they feel that their backs are to the wall. I'm not predicting a raft of Labour support for Johnson, I'm saying he is going to get some and it will be considerably more than 3 to 5.

j8wk2feszrnpao

Varta wrote: »

Take a moment to review the behaviour of the opposition Government over the past year or so. They have been all over the place, squabbling amongst themselves.

Corrected your post.
Not denying that the opposition has been poor, but this has been a government led farce.

Water John

Even if he loses the vote on Saturday, it will be by a smallish margin. He has the fall back position of taking it into a GE.
Do 18Lb MPs vote for it?

Igotadose

golfball37 wrote: »

I hope this gets passed in the HOC. Whilst Brexit is bad for Ireland it would be ridiculous and make a laugh of democracy if Britain didn't leave the EU after the result in 2016.

A slight majority voted on a non-binding referendum. Now, an enormous portion of the population wants a confirmatory vote on what's being proposed. Democracy at its finest.

The gaslighting is amazing. Brexit in ANY form is BAD for all involved. Bad for Ireland, NI, UK, Europe and the rest of the world.

Mr.Nice Guy

VinLieger wrote: »

I disagree if anything this gives moderates on both sides the badly needed middle ground of something they can both agree on to finally shift NI politics away from the extremes of both sides.



That is part of why the DUP hate it it loosens their grips on the protestant vote pool because people simply will not want to vote for a party that is pro a hard border when voting them in very possibly could lead to one.

The extremes of both sides will be the ones who gain from this as it brings constitutional issues to the fore, and will sideline issues like health, education, housing etc.

You've a lot of faith in the pragmatism of a body that isn't in place at the moment because unionists can't stomach a basic Irish language act.

Varta

funkey_monkey wrote: »

This dropping of the backstop and replacement with a vote is an awful idea - I'm not sure how Leo and the EU agreed to it.
Apart from the instability it causes for business - which they stated the first time this proposal was mooted - I just can't see it being a good idea.

It gives unionist business people a few years out of the heat of battle to make the point clear to their representatives that they want to stay close to the EU.

Dyr

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

On the ground, the situation has gone from "Hard border in Ireland on 1st November until the UK are so humiliated in trade talks that they concede some sort of backstop, which might take 10 years or never happen" to "No hard border in Ireland for 7 years, and then only if MLAs take leave of their senses".

Thats some Mark Francois level dissembling right there. You can spin all you like but the Irish Government just ran straight over its main red line to get this deal done, that it would not agree to anything that could create a hard border on this Island.

They've basically handed responsibilty for the GFA over to Stormont.

Imreoir2

Bambi wrote: »

Highly unlikely doesn't cut it when it comes the putting a hard border on this Island

If an informed majority in NI want a hard border, and the abandonment of the GFA, then the peace process is effectivly dead anyway. No point trying to hang on to a peace agreement that the people no longer support.

Varta

Bambi wrote: »

It was highly unlikely that UK would leave the EU
It was highly unlikely that Boris would be PM
It was highly unlikely that Dominic Cummings would be spearheading the UK governments withdrawal negotiations
It was highly unlikely that Jeremy Corybn would be leading the Labour Party in the UK.

Highly unlikely doesn't cut it when it comes the putting a hard border on this Island

Nonsense. There were times when I would have placed a decent bet on any of those outcomes.

FrancieBrady

It's the Anglo Irish Agreement again...Unionists being told again, you don't have a veto.

farmchoice

Varta wrote: »

1. Do MPs from Labour pro-brexit constituencies want another extension? Maybe yes and maybe no.

2. The Benn act doesn't guarantee anything until it has been tested and Johnson's camp are playing that one very close to their chests.

Take a moment to review the behaviour of the opposition over the past year or so. They have been all over the place, squabbling amongst themselves. The chances of them stooping this now are growing weaker... not stronger.

on point 1. i believe they all voted fro the Benn act so we can assume they do.


on point 2. they are now quite obviously much stronger, they have managed to take control of parliament and pass legislation that has hamstrung the government, they have challenged the government in court and won.

they can now decide when an election will be called and possibly have the numbers to pass an amendment to the WA necessitating a confirmatory referendum.

Adamcp898

Michael Gove just now on Radio 4 sounds a suspiciously confident chap on how this deal will fare on Saturday.

Varta

munstermagic11 wrote: »

Corrected your post.
Not denying that the opposition has been poor, but this has been a government led farce.

Without wishing to be confrontational, please don't correct my posts.

That said, I agree that the entire UK political establishment has been a disaster with regard to brexit.

Kermit.de.frog

Bambi wrote: »

Thats some Mark Francois level dissembling right there. You can spin all you like but the Irish Government just ran straight over its main red line to get this deal done, that it would not agree to anything that could create a hard border on this Island.

They've basically handed responsibilty for the GFA over to Stormont.

Are you saying the people in NI should have no say whatsoever over these arrangements on them?

That's not right either.

The assembly will never vote to leave the arrangements. That is just practical reality and the DUP know it.

Imreoir2

Bambi wrote: »

They've basically handed responsibilty for the GFA over to Stormont.

God forbid the people of NI should have a say in their own future. If the GFA does not hold in NI, there is nothing Ireland or the UK can do about it. The elected representatives of NI will have to take responsibility for this.

Water John

Oliver Letwin motion in HOC today would allow amendments on Saturday. That would mean a vote attaching a Ref to it. Thus it may pass with a Ref required.

Penn

Water John wrote: »

Oliver Letwin motion in HOC today would allow amendments on Saturday. That would mean a vote attaching a Ref to it. Thus it may pass with a Ref required.

Wouldn't they need for the EU to grant an extension to hold the referendum?

VinLieger

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

The extremes of both sides will be the ones who gain from this as it brings constitutional issues to the fore, and will sideline issues like health, education, housing etc.

You think this issue will dominate every sitting day of stormont over all other concerns even though its on a 4 year cycle?

Varta

farmchoice wrote: »

on point 1. i believe they all voted fro the Benn act so we can assume they do.


on point 2. they are now quite obviously much stronger, they have managed to take control of parliament and pass legislation that has hamstrung the government, they have challenged the government in court and won.

they can now decide when an election will be called and possibly have the numbers to pass an amendment to the WA necessitating a confirmatory referendum.

They haven't managed to stop Johnson getting a new deal with the EU. The circumstances today are very different to how they were last week. If Baker can change tack you can be damn sure some Labour MPs can too.

Imreoir2

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Are you saying the people in NI should have no say whatsoever over these arrangements on them?

That's not right either.

The assembly will never vote to leave the arrangements. That is just practical reality and the DUP know it.

Maybe they will, probably not, but it could happen. That depends on who the people of NI choose to represent them.

The structure of this is interesting though, that two year cooling off period is key I think. Will the DUP want to launch NI into an interim period with a clock ticking down to a hard border? What is the likelyhood that such a scenario would see the conditions for a border poll being met during that interim period?

There can be no hard border unless a majority of the people of NI decide they want one, that is good enough for me.

Joe_ Public

Penn wrote: »

Wouldn't they need for the EU to grant an extension to hold the referendum?

Yes and a long one too. Grieve and others were in Brussels yesterday meeting EU officials so it's very possible they have got some sort of unofficial endorsement.

Imreoir2

Penn wrote: »

Wouldn't they need for the EU to grant an extension to hold the referendum?

Yes, probably a six month extension. The EU would probably accept that outcome.

Dyr

Imreoir2 wrote: »

If an informed majority in NI want a hard border, and the abandonment of the GFA, then the peace process is effectivly dead anyway. No point trying to hang on to a peace agreement that the people no longer support.

The peace process would never have come about in the first place if it was based on an internal settlement within Northern Ireland. It was agreed and signed by two governments, not elected representatives in the six counties

I would never have voted to remove articles 2 & 3 on the basis that the GFA agreement was subject to the continued approval of the Stormont Assembly. Varadker has just removed one of the foundations of the GFA.

It's the equivalent of a solicitor adding a clause to an agreement between his client and another party can now be declared null and void by a third party.

LuckyLloyd

Bambi wrote: »

It was highly unlikely that UK would leave the EU
It was highly unlikely that Boris would be PM
It was highly unlikely that Dominic Cummings would be spearheading the UK governments withdrawal negotiations
It was highly unlikely that Jeremy Corybn would be leading the Labour Party in the UK.

Highly unlikely doesn't cut it when it comes the putting a hard border on this Island

I suppose it’s a slam dunk for those who want to nail Varadkar to the wall. You said ‘never’ and came back with ‘maybe’.

Again:

If we reach a point where a majority of people in NI want out of this arrangement or out of the GFA well we better get everyone back around the table and spend two years figuring it out. Creating a situation via negotiation that will leave the DUP and the harder edge of their constituency perpetually unhappy with no mechanism by which to effectively express that is as bad as locking nationalists within a hard border by dint of No Deal.

I’m very happy with this compromise: the will of NI and clear timelines to find new arrangements if necessary.

Shelga

The only point of an extension from an EU point of view is for a referendum, or for a GE that will result in a government that want a softer Brexit.

It's clear that neither Labour nor the Lib Dems are going to get a majority, and are incapable of working together on this matter.

Should the EU be quite clear that they will only extend for a confirmatory referendum? I imagine the EU's stance on an extension will be extremely influential for Labour MPs?

ancapailldorcha

Penn wrote: »

Wouldn't they need for the EU to grant an extension to hold the referendum?

Yes but I would prefer a GE to win a mandate for a referendum. Cancelling this needs to be done in a pristine manner, not a quick referendum but I won't complain too loudly if the latter happens.

dancingwith

I have always suspected the DUP have an issue with democracy.
I guess thats why they put the word 'Democratic' into their name, like North Korea do, just for show.

trellheim

Steve Baker still not tweeting, looks like the ERG are in, must have been some line to make them swallow that.