Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Water John

There is a long way to go IWT in the UK side of this yet. Johnson possibly will not get the Deal though unscathed. The optics are, he lost the first vote after concluding this historic Deal, so HOC not overly impressed.
A confimatory vote V remain may be the only option left as he may again look for a GE and not get it.
That's whn it's up to Lb, Lib Dems and others get their sh1t together and force that Referendum.

MrMusician18

Strazdas wrote: »

Go with whatever the Tories are saying I would imagine

Surely the DUP couldn't back a deal in a referendum that they refused to vote for in parliament?

robinph

devnull wrote: »

Is this their long awaited trick to bypass the Benn act?

Surely the motion will just be amended anyway?

That has to be Mogg trying to reframe what the vote means without any actual basis in fact. If it was possible to have parliament vote in any way other than yes/no to each individual policy we wouldn't be here right now as they would have done that when the previous series of indicative votes happened.

Strazdas

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Surely the DUP couldn't back a deal in a referendum that they refused to vote for in parliament?

I suppose it would depend on what has happened in the meantime. A referendum would be at least two or three months away, maybe more.

Varta

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Remain let the leavers control the narrative and were simply unable to get their message heard.

A simple example of this was the leavers tactic of saying something demonstrably untrue as a televised panel discussion was being wound up. Never challenged, either on the spot by refusing to let the piece be wound up or complaining afterwards. Newsnight in particular was terrible for this.

That's very true, however, that was all aimed at the public, it is the remain politicians who should have done more. Brexit happened at a time when the Labour party was and still is in disarray. Even now they are having issues such as antisemitism distract them.

listermint

devnull wrote: »

Is this their long awaited trick to bypass the Benn act?

Surely the motion will just be amended anyway?

Have to agree with this.


The DUP are not going half as mental and they usually do. Wheres their heads exploding.

And the erg who are normally as vocal.... Saying nothing.

This is all a big trick and a poor one. No idea how the EU are falling for it.... Or are they.

I see none of this as a real deal. Tbh

Varta

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Surely the DUP couldn't back a deal in a referendum that they refused to vote for in parliament?

The DUP's position, whatever it might be, will be ignored by the majority of the NI electorate. They have sh*t the bed in that regard.

Strazdas

listermint wrote: »

Have to agree with this.


The DUP are not going half as mental and they usually do. Wheres their heads exploding.

And the erg who are normally as vocal.... Saying nothing.

This is all a big trick and a poor one. No idea how the EU are falling for it.... Or are they.

I see none of this as a real deal. Tbh

The EU and the Taoiseach are well aware of what Johnson is really like.....they wouldn't trust him

Nate--IRL--

Optics are satisfied for the EU side. It this fails it will be squarely on the UK. The EU have no control over that.

NAte

jmayo

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Remain let the leavers control the narrative and were simply unable to get their message heard.

A simple example of this was the leavers tactic of saying something demonstrably untrue as a televised panel discussion was being wound up. Never challenged, either on the spot by refusing to let the piece be wound up or complaining afterwards. Newsnight in particular was terrible for this.

Newsnight was a disgrace.
One of the few people on there that really stood up was Gina Miller who took no shyte from the eejits in the audience who had to have been plants.

Corbyn's leadership is responsible for Labour's failure to either capitalise on a severely dysfunctional Tory party or prevent UK's exit based on a dodgy referendum where a lot of people probably regret their voting decision.

Joe_ Public

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Remain let the leavers control the narrative and were simply unable to get their message heard.

A simple example of this was the leavers tactic of saying something demonstrably untrue as a televised panel discussion was being wound up. Never challenged, either on the spot by refusing to let the piece be wound up or complaining afterwards. Newsnight in particular was terrible for this.

I was talking about practical measures remain mps could take in parliament and wondering what they were. Somebody mentioned I think, "extraordinary parliamentary acts", earlier but what are these? A couple of months ago there was consensus that mps might not be able to stop no deal. Before that the idea of mps taking control of the order of business was almost unprecedented. I still ask what more should they have done?

Water John

Sky has it that if the UK ratify it on Sat then an Ext won't be needed.
This gives Johnson a stronger hand.

Beechwoodspark

I also think it’s v suspicious

Likes of Gove and Rees Mogg praising the deal to the heavens

ERG appear to be happy

DUP doing a vow of silence

?!?

Something is up. Is it a tactic to lead to either no deal or an election?

FrancieBrady

jmayo wrote: »

Newsnight was a disgrace.
One of the few people on there that really stood up was Gina Miller who took no shyte from the eejits in the audience who had to have been plants.

Corbyn's leadership is responsible for Labour's failure to either capitalise on a severely dysfunctional Tory party or prevent UK's exit based on a dodgy referendum where a lot of people probably regret their voting decision.

It wouldn't matter in the slightest who was leading Labour, it is dysfunctional too.

The stars aligned in terms of dysfunctional parties because the political system and the notion of a 'UK' is essentially in chaos.

Dyr

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

I suppose it’s a slam dunk for those who want to nail Varadkar to the wall. You said ‘never’ and came back with ‘maybe’.

Again:

If we reach a point where a majority of people in NI want out of this arrangement or out of the GFA well we better get everyone back around the table and spend two years figuring it out. Creating a situation via negotiation that will leave the DUP and the harder edge of their constituency perpetually unhappy with no mechanism by which to effectively express that is as bad as locking nationalists within a hard border by dint of No Deal.

I’m very happy with this compromise: the will of NI and clear timelines to find new arrangements if necessary.

I could care less about Varadker when it comes to this, if he wasn't running the show it would be Michael Martin and I would have held him to the same standard. I supect you'll defend Varadker and Coveney regardless

All along our government had support across the board based on their two red lines:

They would not sign up to anything that could create a hard border
The Good Friday agreement could not be compromised.

When push came to shove they abandoned both on the basis that it might never happen. "Might never happen" in an era where Donald Trump is president of the USA.

It should not be withing the gift of politicians in the north to destroy the Good Friday agreement it was an All Ireland agreement ratified by the people of this island north and south via referendum not elections.

You can try engage in some jesuitical justification for this reversal but the reality is that they abandoned a position that had support right across the island. And people go on about Boris not being trustworthy.

ancapailldorcha

The Remain side was always on shaky ground in resisting the implementation of the referendum result as, despite the many deep and glaring issues (Cambridge Analytica & Darren Grimes of BeLeave to name just two) with the referendum, people did vote to leave. Aggressively campaigning to oppose leaving the EU is a direct contradiction of the largest voting exercise in British electoral history. Remain leaning and leave-skeptical politicians risk putting themselves in danger when they dare to stand against the "People voted to Leave" sabre wielded so enthusiastically by everyone from Farage to Francois.

The other thing is that the UK doesn't really have the same protest culture as, say France. Things like Steve Bray and SODEM are very new here, as are the People's Vote marches.

Personally, I've run for election, donated money and gotten involved with Remain groups as well as my local Lib Dems. I don't really know what more I could have done. Most of a million people have turned up from all across the UK to the People's Vote marches and that made no difference whatsoever.

It would have been nice if Labour and the other Remain parties could have gotten their act together. I still think this deal will crash and burn in Parliament so I'm not despondent yet.

Beechwoodspark

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

I also think it’s v suspicious

Likes of Gove and Rees Mogg praising the deal to the heavens

ERG appear to be happy

DUP doing a vow of silence

?!?

Something is up. Is it a tactic to lead to either no deal or an election?

Pretty much no one wants No Deal apart from a few crazies.. Don't believe the hype. This deal is mostly what England wants. Out of the EU and the ability to do independent trade deals, which they couldn't do with May's.

LuckyLloyd

Bambi wrote: »

I could care less about Varadker when it comes to this, if he wasn't running the show it would be Michael Martin and I would have held him to the same standard. I supect you'll defend Varadker and Coveney regardless

All along our government had support across the board based on their two red lines:

They would not sign up to anything that could create a hard border
The Good Friday agreement could not be compromised.

When push came to shove they abandoned both on the basis that it might never happen. "Might never happen" in an era where Donald Trump is president of the USA.

It should not be withing the gift of politicians in the north to destroy the Good Friday agreement it was and All Ireland agreement ratified by the people of this island north and south via referendum not elections.

You can try engage in some jesuitical justification for this reversal but the reality is that they abandoned a position that had support right across the island. And people go on about Boris not being trustworthy.

I’m a SF voting republican for reference, so I’m not a defender of Coveney and Varadkar regardless.

Ultimately we’re not going to agree here. A unique problem requires a unique solution, and I’m confident with the parameter that have been drawn around this one. We didn’t get all of what we wanted, you very rarely do in politics.

LeinsterDub

Bambi wrote: »

You can try engage in some jesuitical justification for this reversal but the reality is that they abandoned a position that had support right across the island. And people go on about Boris not being trustworthy.

How is this different to for example , UK + EU went with the backstop, UK + EU agreed a trade deal, the backstop is removed , UK pulls out of the deal at some point down the line.

dancingwith

Rjd2 wrote: »

8/13 on Betfair Boris loses on Saturday, and 8/15 or so with the high street bookies it loses if you want to bet in a betting shop.

That and Liverpool beating United on Sunday is my lock of the weekend.

A nice double

Water John

For those here bemoaning the vote required in the NI Assembly, SF have welcomed the Deal, so they can live with it.

Just now on the Guardian:

EU will not grant any further extension, says Juncker, implying MPs must choose between this deal and no deal
Jean-Claude Juncker, the European commission president, has said the EU will grant another Brexit extension.

This is hugely significant, because, if the rest of the EU27 agree - and it is not clear yet whether he is speaking on their behalf - it means MPs will effectively be faced with a choice between this deal and no deal

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-zGucnyaVOU
8 minutes ago.

FrancieBrady

Bambi wrote: »

I could care less about Varadker when it comes to this, if he wasn't running the show it would be Michael Martin and I would have held him to the same standard. I supect you'll defend Varadker and Coveney regardless

All along our government had support across the board based on their two red lines:

They would not sign up to anything that could create a hard border
The Good Friday agreement could not be compromised.

When push came to shove they abandoned both on the basis that it might never happen. "Might never happen" in an era where Donald Trump is president of the USA.

It should not be withing the gift of politicians in the north to destroy the Good Friday agreement it was an All Ireland agreement ratified by the people of this island north and south via referendum not elections.

You can try engage in some jesuitical justification for this reversal but the reality is that they abandoned a position that had support right across the island. And people go on about Boris not being trustworthy.

I'm not getting where it is suddenly within the 'gift' of NI politicians to destroy the GFA?

They always had that 'gift'.

FrancieBrady

Deleted User wrote: »

Just now on the Guardian:

EU will not grant any further extension, says Juncker, implying MPs must choose between this deal and no deal
Jean-Claude Juncker, the European commission president, has said the EU will grant another Brexit extension.

This is hugely significant, because, if the rest of the EU27 agree - and it is not clear yet whether he is speaking on their behalf - it means MPs will effectively be faced with a choice between this deal and no deal


I was going to post saying France should come out with this.

That would be a massive move. UK in a snooker.

ToBeFrank123

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Surely the DUP couldn't back a deal in a referendum that they refused to vote for in parliament?

The DUP are like Labour, always kicking big decisions down the road. They are scared sh*tless of being responsible for any big decision. The safest bet in their eyes is to say No to everything.

MrMusician18

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

I also think it’s v suspicious

Likes of Gove and Rees Mogg praising the deal to the heavens

ERG appear to be happy

DUP doing a vow of silence

?!?

Something is up. Is it a tactic to lead to either no deal or an election?

From my understanding, and I could be wrong, was that the Benn act just required Johnson to bring a deal back or be required to ask for an extension at the council meeting.

Now that there is a deal on the table and that won't be voted on until after the council meeting, there is no requirement to ask for an extension.

Therefore if the deal fails to pass, it means a no deal exit unless Johnson asks for an extension (which he won't be compelled to do) and there is an emergency European council meeting to grant said extension.

dancingwith

The Guardian are reporting that Juncker says its this deal or no deal !

EU will not grant any further extension, says Juncker, implying MPs must choose between this deal and no deal

This is hugely significant, because, if the rest of the EU27 agree - and it is not clear yet whether he is speaking on their behalf - it means MPs will effectively be faced with a choice between this deal and no deal

20silkcut

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I was talking about practical measures remain mps could take in parliament and wondering what they were. Somebody mentioned I think, "extraordinary parliamentary acts", earlier but what are these? A couple of months ago there was consensus that mps might not be able to stop no deal. Before that the idea of mps taking control of the order of business was almost unprecedented. I still ask what more should they have done?

The fact that no significant charismatic leader emerged to rally the remain side is a failure.
If brexit was the biggest political mandate in British history , then remaining in the EU is the second biggest.
Out of 16 million people no one emerged to take down the likes of Farage , Johnson , mogg etc.

Tony Blair is probably the highest profile Face of the remain side that says a lot.
It was an abject failure.
It took a massive effort by the likes of Ted Heath , Harold McMillan , Roy Jenkins etc to get Britain into the EU . The fact that no one emerged at this time of similar drive and passion and stature to them is a failure. Especially when it’s clear the mandate is there.

That YT link above is worth a watch. Juncker really adamant about no extension.

LeinsterDub

MrMusician18 wrote: »

From my understanding, and I could be wrong, was that the Benn act just required Johnson to bring a deal back or be required to ask for an extension at the council meeting.

Now that there is a deal on the table and that won't be voted on until after the council meeting, there is no requirement to ask for an extension.

Therefore if the deal fails to pass, it means a no deal exit unless Johnson asks for an extension (which he won't be compelled to do) and there is an emergency European council meeting to grant said extension.

That's incorrect. The deal must be passed by the HoC or else he has to ask for an extension

Section 1 obliges the Prime Minister to request an extension to the Article 50 negotiating period for the purpose of negotiating a withdrawal agreement, unless the House of Commons has passed a motion which either approves a withdrawal agreement or approves departure without a deal, and the House of Lords has debated the same motion. If such a motion is not approved, the Prime Minister is obliged to make the request no later than 19 October 2019