Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Imreoir2

wally1990 wrote: »

I know this might be a stupid question but I need to ask...


All I am hearing is a deal is agreed with the EU

Deal here, deal there and bit of information about whats in the deal on the news.

Where can I actually read the deal or the key information?

All the news articles I'm finding are just high level news with no actually details about the deal and all that is contained with the UK leaving the EU. I'm learning nothing from reading the general news.

I want to be able to read about VAT, Goods and trade, Visa issues , tariffs, and much more.

Is there any actual link to the deal OR a high quality article on the latest deal?

Thanks all.
wally1990 is online now Report Post

Not sure if the legal text has been released just yet, though it will be soon if not.

gmisk

wally1990 wrote: »

I know this might be a stupid question but I need to ask...


All I am hearing is a deal is agreed with the EU

Deal here, deal there and bit of information about whats in the deal on the news.

Where can I actually read the deal or the key information?

All the news articles I'm finding are just high level news with no actually details about the deal and all that is contained with the UK leaving the EU. I'm learning nothing from reading the general news.

I want to be able to read about VAT, Goods and trade, Visa issues , tariffs, and much more.

Is there any actual link to the deal OR a high quality article on the latest deal?

Thanks all.
wally1990 is online now Report Post

Sky did a small item which highlighted (literally with a highlighted sections of the agreement) the 3 or 4 changes made to the last agreement in this version it was very clear.
Will try and find it

Dyr

FrancieBrady wrote: »

How is the GFA 'compromised' by a 'consent' principle being enshrined in a WA?

Was the GFA an agreement between the people of Northern Ireland with themselves?

I don't recall unilateral withdrawal clauses for NI being a part of the deal.

giveitholly

I presume it will be evening time when this vote happens on Saturday?

irishfeen

It will be interesting to see if the DUP’s stance will move anyone in the ERG to vote against the deal... sounds coming out at the minute seem to suggest they will follow BJ.

LeinsterDub

Bambi wrote: »

You can't know anything of the sort to a certainty, you're being ridiculous.

As before, be honest. You would have said the same about Trump, Johnson, Corbyn, Brexit etc. There goes another rubber tree plant, to quote a song on the topic

This line of you can't know the future argument could as easily be applied to the back stop. As if said before. UK and EU agreed May's deal. A FTA is agreed the backstop is removed as there is no longer any need for it as per the WA. UK pulls out of the FTA. Hard border

giveitholly

giveitholly wrote: »

I presume it will be evening time when this vote happens on Saturday?

As it isn't an ordinary session I don't think there is a timetable as such but yes I imagine the vote will be late after lots of debate.

Have Labour said how they will discipline members who don't show up to vote?

ancapailldorcha

Mod: Serious posts only please.

gmisk

wally1990 wrote: »

I know this might be a stupid question but I need to ask...


All I am hearing is a deal is agreed with the EU

Deal here, deal there and bit of information about whats in the deal on the news.

Where can I actually read the deal or the key information?

All the news articles I'm finding are just high level news with no actually details about the deal and all that is contained with the UK leaving the EU. I'm learning nothing from reading the general news.

I want to be able to read about VAT, Goods and trade, Visa issues , tariffs, and much more.

Is there any actual link to the deal OR a high quality article on the latest deal?

Thanks all.
wally1990 is online now Report Post

The below is nice and clear I thought
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-50083026

FrancieBrady

Bambi wrote: »

Was the GFA an agreement between the people of Northern Ireland with themselves?

I don't recall unilateral withdrawal clauses for NI being a part of the deal.

It's an agreement between the Governments of Ireland and The UK.

Nowhere does it address a Customs or Single Market Border.

The 'spirit' of the Agreement would preclude a customs border but that is it. So no compromise there.

There is no 'legal' fall back in the GFA if a border is imposed.

*Can you withdraw that remark about me 'finally accepting that it is a compromise' please?

Kermit.de.frog

irishfeen wrote: »

It will be interesting to see if the DUP’s stance will move anyone in the ERG to vote against the deal... sounds coming out at the minute seem to suggest they will follow BJ.

Andrew "I'm entitled to an Irish passport by virtue of being English" Bridgen not only threw them under the bus on C4 News this evening - he then reversed the bus and ran over them again!

Looks like the ERG are on board.

Harry Palmr

It's amazing what a looming deadline can do.

Did Johnson really ever want to do a deal? Maybe maybe not but the combination of Parliament striking back and the Benn Bill plus vanishing time forced a change of approach (Leo Varadkar can take a bow here) - with Johnson also being aware of sheer tedium about the process on both sides of the debate.

"In the name of God, go!" they all think in Brussels.

All sides are suing for peace - putting up with a deal that suits almost no one but will find a way to live with

gmisk

Fix Thy Foot! wrote: »

i believe the EU/Dublin rightly believed they could fob Treesa off and send her scurrying back and forth to Westminster like a madwoman. In that they succeeded.

But then BoJo entered stage-left and they quickly realised they were dealing with a totally different animal. Suddenly they were in a game of hardball.
They knew they were not going to get away with treating Johnson & Cummings like they did Treesa.
The rules had changed. Prologation, dodging the Benn Act do or die etc. was no accident. Juncker Barnier & Leo knew a compromise had to be reached or this guy was likely to pull the pin.

I honestly think you are giving Boris Johnson far too much credit.
The new deal swaps a backstop for a four-year alignment between Northern Ireland and EU...it drags things out yet again. The other changes were fairly small tweaks imo.

I also don't think it's going to pass...I don't think he has the numbers.

The clips on the view on BBC 1 now......Boris Johnson...you can't believe a word out of his gob.
UUP guy on show is fuming as expected. Worse deal than the backstop.

ancapailldorcha

On the four year recurring veto, that's surely a serious disincentive to potential investors to invest in one of the UK's most economically deprived regions, no?

dublinman1990

If you're watching UTV right now. View from Stormont will be on in a few minutes.

Water John

That vote is fairly hypothetical, in the fact it's highly unlikely to change the status of NI. It would rate as low risk in any business assessment.

gmisk

Fix Thy Foot! wrote: »

i honestly think Boris does not give a fiddlers about the Backstop, past or present. So long as he gets to carry the ball over the line he does not care. so long as he gets the Glory Boris is happy.

as for Sat's vote. my money is staying in my pocket.

He doesn't care about the backstop or northern Ireland, I agree with you on that.

ancapailldorcha

By the way, the Financial Times has conducted an analysis and predicted a defeat of the new Withdrawal Bill by 3 votes:



As above, he faces greater problems than did May. I would expect a storied historian to know better. History might not repeat but it certainly rhymes.

gmisk

dublinman1990 wrote: »

If you're watching UTV right now. View from Stormont will be on in a few minutes.

Will it be a chirping cricket or a tumbleweed? Because there hasn't been a government there since March 2017...

Tea Shock

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

On the four year recurring veto, that's surely a serious disincentive to potential investors to invest in one of the UK's most economically deprived regions, no?

The Irish government wouldn't say it out loud, but that does the Republic of Ireland no harm - they are FDI competitors to us after all. Making Northern Ireland less attractive might have been a big plus point from Varadkar's point of view.

ancapailldorcha

Tea Shock wrote: »

The Irish government wouldn't say it out loud, but that does the Republic of Ireland no harm - they are FDI competitors to us after all. Making Northern Ireland less attractive might have been a big plus point from Varadkar's point of view.

Fair point but it essentially boils down to Westminster dealing an even worse hand to NI which voted to remain in the EU.

Imreoir2

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

On the four year recurring veto, that's surely a serious disincentive to potential investors to invest in one of the UK's most economically deprived regions, no?

To an extent, though any company thinking of investing somewhere in the UK (all else being equal) would surely prefer NI which may or may not fall out of the EU in 4 years over GB which already has fallen out of the EU.

Kermit.de.frog

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

By the way, the Financial Times has conducted an analysis and predicted a defeat of the new Withdrawal Bill by 3 votes:



As above, he faces greater problems than did May. I would expect a storied historian to know better. History might not repeat but it certainly rhymes.

Does he?

He has yet to start the charm offensive for rebels and converts.

I reckon it's going to pass.

Another factor here is going to be literally fatigue as well. This can make for easier pickings too.

Harry Palmr

Jasus Christ never let the audience of QT talk about Ireland.

prawnsambo

Fix Thy Foot! wrote: »

Boris, Trump. Putin.
they're all the same. it's just a game to them. there are no rules.
Alpha males who only really care about their egos.
the rest is just collateral damage.

By all accounts, the security briefings he got on no deal scared the bejesus out of him. All the talk about no deal stopped and a deal became imperative.

Tea Shock

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Jasus Christ never let the audience of QT talk about Ireland.

Yer man was a massive plank!

They haven't a clue. Got a text from a friend over there this evening saying he can't understand the DUP's problem - it prevents a hard border. They haven't a bog of a clue!

prawnsambo wrote: »

By all accounts, the security briefings he got on no deal scared the bejesus out of him. All the talk about no deal stopped and a deal became imperative.

Im pretty sure there were many aspects to it - not just security!

ancapailldorcha

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Does he?

He has yet to start the charm offensive for rebels and converts.

I reckon it's going to pass.

Another factor here is going to be literally fatigue as well. This can make for easier pickings too.

Johnson has been exposed for what he is. Any charm he had will only be effective on the already persuaded.

Either way, we are entering the final act. This will pass or it will fail. If the latter, an extension will be request to facilitate a GE and/or a People's Vote. Those are the only two ways forward that I can see.

theological

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

By the way, the Financial Times has conducted an analysis and predicted a defeat of the new Withdrawal Bill by 3 votes:



As above, he faces greater problems than did May. I would expect a storied historian to know better. History might not repeat but it certainly rhymes.

Why does he face more problems than May?
3 votes would be a much better margin than May.
19 Labour MPs defied Corbyn and wrote to Juncker to stress the urgency for a deal with Johnson recently. There's a chance of potential there.

Your underestimating the lethargy of the British public on this issue and the frustration of many that it isn't done.

ancapailldorcha

theological wrote: »

Why does he face more problems than May?
3 votes would be a much better margin than May.
19 Labour MPs defied Corbyn and wrote to Juncker to stress the urgency for a deal with Johnson recently. There's a chance of potential there.

Your underestimating the lethargy of the British public on this issue and the frustration of many that it isn't done.

The British public aren't voting, their MP's are and this is their job.

He faces more problems due to having fewer MP's. He's haemorrhaged MP's after trying to illegally prorogue Parliament.

With respect, a chance of potential means nothing. It's crunch time. Writing to Juncker would be futile. They have less than a fortnight and a deal to sign that nobody wants except for the faithful Brexiters who see that the whole Brexit project failing apart.

theological

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The British public aren't voting, their MP's are and this is their job.

He faces more problems due to having fewer MP's. He's haemorrhaged MP's after trying to illegally prorogue Parliament.

With respect, a chance of potential means nothing. It's crunch time. Writing to Juncker would be futile. They have less than a fortnight and a deal to sign that nobody wants except for the faithful Brexiters who see that the whole Brexit project failing apart.

You've misunderstood me. Labour MPs wrote to Juncker last week in defiance of Corbyn.

More Labour MPs could easily vote for this. It's not correct to write it off. Most of the Conservatives who lost the whip are voting for Johnson on this so your analysis doesn't seem correct about more challenges. It looks easier for Johnson than for May here on the basis of the FT.