Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Water John

The solution for Johnson was provided by Dublin.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/brexit-why-liverpool-meeting-was-the-turning-point-1.4054437

He had no solution when he went to Liverpool and Varadkar threw him a lifeline.

jimmycrackcorm

lola85 wrote: »

3 years we finally got a deal they said on prime time??

May had a deal too???

Unless there is a revoke, this is the final deal that either gets accepted now or after an extension

ancapailldorcha

theological wrote: »

You've misunderstood me. Labour MPs wrote to Juncker last week in defiance of Corbyn.

More Labour MPs could easily vote for this. It's not correct to write it off. Most of the Conservatives who lost the whip are voting for Johnson on this so your analysis doesn't seem correct about more challenges. It looks easier for Johnson than for May here on the basis of the FT.

I'm not writing anything off. I'm just looking at probability. Any Labour MP voting for Johnson's deal will be seen as a traitor. Corbyn won't be going any time soon. It's one thing to contact Juncker, it's another to actually see this through. This does not concern me.

Joe_ Public

James cleverly on newsnight claiming Johnson had "achieved the impossible" by bringing back a deal. FFS! They could have got that deal 2 years ago except for stupid red lines.

And hark at the erg guy who said it was the threat of no deal that got them over the line. Alistair Burt quickly put him right in that it was the opposite that happened. How insane are these people?

Westernyelp

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

On the four year recurring veto, that's surely a serious disincentive to potential investors to invest in one of the UK's most economically deprived regions, no?

And therefore a strong incentive for the electorate to row in behind moderate parties. with luck creating a virtuous circle.

Joe_ Public

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I'm not writing anything off. I'm just looking at probability. Any Labour MP voting for Johnson's deal will be seen as a traitor. Corbyn won't be going any time soon. It's one thing to contact Juncker, it's another to actually see this through. This does not concern me.

Keir Starmer says there will be 3 line whip and my understanding is anyone who defies that then cannot be a party candidate for next election. If that is case, it should concentrate minds somewhat.

prawnsambo

theological wrote: »

You've misunderstood me. Labour MPs wrote to Juncker last week in defiance of Corbyn.

More Labour MPs could easily vote for this. It's not correct to write it off. Most of the Conservatives who lost the whip are voting for Johnson on this so your analysis doesn't seem correct about more challenges. It looks easier for Johnson than for May here on the basis of the FT.

Yeah, I'd be wary of some of the voting predictions being made on the likes of Sky. They're basing it on who voted for May's deal and that paradigm doesn't hold any more. There's a fatigue factor, there's a sense that this deal is the best they'll get after two goes at it. Labour MPs might not vote for it, but some could abstain. And the Kate Hoeys don't give a hoot what Corbyn says. It won't take many to turn this around.

dublinman1990

Naomi Long MEP of The Alliance Party had said to Tracy McGee on View from Stormont that BJ could into to the HoC to make announcements & a vote among MPs for a confirmatory referendum, i.e. a people's vote, to be held when parliament is in session on Saturday. I don't think that will happen because the UK still has to put up special legislation before parliament for another referendum on Brexit which could be months away if the HoC hypothetically votes for BJ to ask for another extension on Saturday. If the extension goes ahead by then after Saturday; a snap election will have to take place first in the UK before any talk of a referendum is etched of the minds of the British electorate.

MrMusician18

In this thread there seems to be a bit of wishful thinking depending on what side of the argument you're coming from. The hard remainers here think it will be defeated and the few leavers think it will pass.

The truth is, at the moment it's too close to call. If labour can manage to impose discipline it will fall if they don't it could pass in relative comfort.

If I were a betting man, I've a feeling he'll shade it. That said I've been wrong with the vast majority of my predictions thus far.

If Johnson gets it passed and subsequently wins a big majority (as would seem likely), the UK will deserve everything that the Tories deliver to them.

joe40

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

By the way, the Financial Times has conducted an analysis and predicted a defeat of the new Withdrawal Bill by 3 votes:



As above, he faces greater problems than did May. I would expect a storied historian to know better. History might not repeat but it certainly rhymes.

From that graphic if Johnson manages to get 2 more labour MPs his deal will pass. Saturday will be interesting

SeaBreezes

prawnsambo wrote: »

By all accounts, the security briefings he got on no deal scared the bejesus out of him. All the talk about no deal stopped and a deal became imperative.

Idiot should've known it long long before then...

Ronan|Raven

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Andrew "I'm entitled to an Irish passport by virtue of being English" Bridgen not only threw them under the bus on C4 News this evening - he then reversed the bus and ran over them again!

Looks like the ERG are on board.

Just watching it now and that is a very kind assesment.

prawnsambo

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Idiot should've known it long long before then...

Long, long before then it wasn't his problem. That, I suspect is how he thinks.

prawnsambo

MrMusician18 wrote: »

In this thread there seems to be a bit of wishful thinking depending on what side of the argument you're coming from. The hard remainers here think it will be defeated and the few leavers think it will pass.

The truth is, at the moment it's too close to call. If labour can manage to impose discipline it will fall if they don't it could pass in relative comfort.

If I were a betting man, I've a feeling he'll shade it. That said I've been wrong with the vast majority of my predictions thus far.

If Johnson gets it passed and subsequently wins a big majority (as would seem likely), the UK will deserve everything that the Tories deliver to them.

I think, like most people here, I'd prefer them to remain.. But I think it could well pass in the HoC. As I pointed out above.

MrMusician18

Joe_ Public wrote: »

James cleverly on newsnight claiming Johnson had "achieved the impossible" by bringing back a deal. FFS! They could have got that deal 2 years ago except for stupid red lines.

And hark at the erg guy who said it was the threat of no deal that got them over the line. Alistair Burt quickly put him right in that it was the opposite that happened. How insane are these people?

What annoyed me most was the declaration by the ERG guy (and went unchallenged by Wark) when he said Johnson delivered on his promise.

No mention of his backtracking of a border in the Irish sea...

Joe_ Public

MrMusician18 wrote: »

What annoyed me most was the declaration by the ERG guy (and went unchallenged by Wark) when he said Johnson delivered on his promise.

No mention of his backtracking of a border in the Irish sea...

Also saying they'll keep the threat of no deal on the table throughout the next phase of talks. Do these guys ever take a day off?

lightspeed

Hurrache wrote: »

But this didn't actually happen so how could they have been right?

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/brexit-explainer-whats-in-the-deal-and-what-happens-now-957882.html


"Q8: So what about the future?
Very importantly, both the EU and the UK have agreed to a “free-trade” where no tariffs will apply in a document called the “political declaration.”"

So its clear as i mentioned EU leaders have surrendered to ensure Britain will get to have its cake and eat it.

Britain gets the following:

1.a tariff free deal,
2.complete control of immigration
3. no longer have to pay into EU budget
4. Also will be able to take back its fishing waters.

Im failing to see why they would not leave considering they can retain nearly all the main benefits once leaving.

Ireland on the other hand are now a net contributor to EU budget and will be paying more along with other member states with britain gone

North Macedonia and Albania due to join EU despite French opposition. That will mean more immigration one way and id assume further contributions from existing member states required.

We will also have many of the french, spanish etc boats fishing in uk waters now hoovering up fish in irish waters.

Im at a loss which part of this deal irish people should be celebrating?

The uk parliment passed the Benn act demanding no deal not an option. It clearly would have been better for all especially EU if they refused to negotiate further and ensured new referendum was held in hope it would be remain and all this mess all forgotten about.

Varta

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I'm not writing anything off. I'm just looking at probability. Any Labour MP voting for Johnson's deal will be seen as a traitor. Corbyn won't be going any time soon. It's one thing to contact Juncker, it's another to actually see this through. This does not concern me.

The momentum has quickened dramatically the last few days and I really believe more Labour MPs than expected are going to support this deal. For many of them it will be vote against the deal and be turfed out by the voters at the next election or vote for it and be turfed out by deselection. The thing is, however, If Johnson gets this deal through then Corbyn is going under his own bus. If the deal goes through Labour will need to do something dramatic if they are to challenge the Tories at the next election. They are going to have to get rid of Corbyn and make radical changes. If this happens then those Labour rebels could avoid deselection. Therefore some of them are going to gamble on voting for the deal. There is no way Corbyn's leadership can survive Johnson getting his deal through.

Hurrache

I normally avoid Yates and Cooper on TV3 because they're basically trolls when it comes to the poxy Tonight Show, but I flicked upon it from Jools Holland tonight and they're tag teaming Lynn Boylan over SF's abstentionism policy.

Jesus lads, you know better than cheap hysterical TV to drum up your twitter hits. Pretty pathetic, and I'm no fan of SF.

Joe_ Public

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

By the way, the Financial Times has conducted an analysis and predicted a defeat of the new Withdrawal Bill by 3 votes:


.

There's a lib dem voting for the deal according to that. How can that be? Sounds very odd.

Edit: I guess they're assuming it's that Tory guy who crossed floor recently cos he backed Mays deal, but that was then. He's lib dem now and thus a remainer or he'll be looking for another change of party.

MrMusician18

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Also saying they'll keep the threat of no deal on the table throughout the next phase of talks. Do these guys ever take a day off?

The next phase of talks is going to be rather scary for Ireland. I suspect Ireland will have used a lot of political capital on the NI issue.

I feel that unlike this set of negotiations where the EU had to protect a member state, this constraint won't exist next for the next round. If the UK plays hardball, the EU will terminate the negotiation and the mainland UK will get it's hard Brexit at the end of transition.

Itssoeasy

Maybe this has been said already tonight as this is a fast moving thread, but could the deal which has to be voted on by the European Parliament as well as the House of Commons be in trouble if the brexit party in the EP decide that's not good enough for them and build support to vote against it there ? I mean it's probably a bit ask but is it out of the realm of possibility ?

prawnsambo

lightspeed wrote: »

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/brexit-explainer-whats-in-the-deal-and-what-happens-now-957882.html


"Q8: So what about the future?
Very importantly, both the EU and the UK have agreed to a “free-trade” where no tariffs will apply in a document called the “political declaration.”"

So its clear as i mentioned EU leaders have surrendered to ensure Britain will get to have its cake and eat it.

Britain gets the following:

1.a tariff free deal,
2.complete control of immigration
3. no longer have to pay into EU budget

Im failing to see why they would not leave considering they can retain all the main benefits once leaving.

I'm not sure if you're slagging The Examiner's 'explainer' or believe it.

I actually went to the link thinking it was some parody site.

"A 'free trade'" Jesus wept.

MrMusician18

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Maybe this has been said already tonight as this is a fast moving thread, but could the deal which has to be voted on by the European Parliament as well as the House of Commons be in trouble if the brexit party in the EP decide that's not good enough for them and build support to vote against it there ? I mean it's probably a bit ask but is it out of the realm of possibility ?

It will pass easily in the EP. The two main blocs EPP and socialists will vote for it.

You might get a rad tag bunch of hard left and hard right voting against it but couldn't see it numbering more than a third of the parliament at the very most. And that's a big stretch.

Hurrache

lightspeed wrote: »

So its clear as i mentioned EU leaders have surrendered to ensure Britain will get to have its cake and eat it.

No, that's not what you mentioned. Also, who told who to blink?

We've also been a net contributor for a while, nothing to do with this deal.

prawnsambo

MrMusician18 wrote: »

The next phase of talks is going to be rather scary for Ireland. I suspect Ireland will have used a lot of political capital on the NI issue.

I feel that unlike this set of negotiations where the EU had to protect a member state, this constraint won't exist next for the next round. If the UK plays hardball, the EU will terminate the negotiation and the mainland UK will get it's hard Brexit at the end of transition.

They won't have a FTA by the end of 2020, or by the end of 2024 either. They may have some co-operation agreements a la USA and China, but there will not be anything like an FTA completed this side of 2025.

Joe_ Public

MrMusician18 wrote: »

The next phase of talks is going to be rather scary for Ireland. I suspect Ireland will have used a lot of political capital on the NI issue.

I feel that unlike this set of negotiations where the EU had to protect a member state, this constraint won't exist next for the next round. If the UK plays hardball, the EU will terminate the negotiation and the mainland UK will get it's hard Brexit at the end of transition.

Either way they still have to honour the GFA so that insurance will always be there.

Bigboldworld

Can i ask folks, and it’s something that has bothered me for a while, I notice one group in all of the brexit news that are very seldom mentioned and appear to be very quiet almost too quiet, what is the position of loyalist paramilitaries in all that is going on particularly if the unionists come out with a deal they are unhappy with, is there any risk of them starting up again? I hope not, I remember the bad days all too well and just seems the focus is on the risk from dissident republicans and nothing about the other side.

Itssoeasy

MrMusician18 wrote: »

It will pass easily in the EP. The two main blocs EPP and socialists will vote for it.

You might get a rad tag bunch of hard left and hard right voting against it but couldn't see it numbering more than a third of the parliament at the very most. And that's a big stretch.

Oh okay. I think i'm just honestly punch drunk over this whole Brexit mess since 2016. I mean a subject that you'd be talking to family and friends about before and after the vote in 2016, now if someone brings it up there's almost a collective groan, so people stop bringing it up.

MrMusician18

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Either way they still have to honour the GFA so that insurance will always be there.

Indeed, that's why it was important to get it sorted at this point. The intention was to avoid the border being played as a card in the future trade negotiation to extract more favorable terms for the UK.

I suspect with that resolved the intention of the EU negotiators will be to fillet the City of London