Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

FrancieBrady

VinLieger wrote: »

Indeed their history of campaigning against every EU referendum shows their true feelings on the EU.


Much like the DUP tried to do they are simply using this situation for their own benefit, however they are going about it far smarter way by shutting the hell up and letting FG push the agenda for them here and have the DUP stomp all over everything up North, whatever the result SF's hands are completely clean both North and South, its very clever.

In fairness to SF, they were on the ball about this type of special status for northern Ireland long before FG were. Enda initially ruled it out.

I actually think they align very closely to the majority in Ireland when it comes down to it...varying degrees of Euro skepticism but never advocates for leaving it.

It would be foolish to assume that the last 3 years means people in Ireland do not think the EU requires reform and a change in direction maybe.

golfball37

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Jeffery Donaldson blows about in the wind so much and manages always to keep a holier than thou tone to his voice.
He was just on the radio there trying to take the moral high ground but basically it has come down to the GFA and rogue members of the Labour party that he is depending on to save the DUP and the Union.

The gas thing is privately he was a remainer prior to the referrendum.

Shelga

Even I'm sick of listening to Chuka Ummuna at this stage. He needs to accept that the remain side has utterly failed to coalesce around an alternative to exiting the EU, beyond 'remain'.

He claims to be a Europhile- well what about the other 450m people in the EU, who want this sorted? It's not all about the UK. There is no appetite in the general public in other EU countries to keep this going indefinitely. Sucking all of the oxygen out of the EU and putting it into Brexit is damaging us.

If the opposition parties can't agree to vote for this deal, can they agree to vote for it subject to a confirmatory referendum? No doubt they'll be squabbling about that too. What other choices are there? What does a three-month extension do?

They all need to take a long hard look at the situation as it is, not as they would wish it to be. And I think the EU needs to tell them clearly- it's this deal, no deal, or as brief as extension as possible in order to hold a confirmatory referendum. But then that would be interpreted as the EU meddling in internal UK politics. The scale of this mess is unbelievable.

lawred2

Shelga wrote: »

Even I'm sick of listening to Chuka Ummuna at this stage. He needs to accept that the remain side has utterly failed to coalesce around an alternative to exiting the EU, beyond 'remain'.

He claims to be a Europhile- well what about the other 450m people in the EU, who want this sorted? It's not all about the UK. There is no appetite in the general public in other EU countries to keep this going indefinitely. Sucking all of the oxygen out of the EU and putting it into Brexit is damaging us.

If the opposition parties can't agree to vote for this deal, can they agree to vote for it subject to a confirmatory referendum? No doubt they'll be squabbling about that too. What other choices are there? What does a three-month extension do?

They all need to take a long hard look at the situation as it is, not as they would wish it to be. And I think the EU needs to tell them clearly- it's this deal or no deal.

Why would that be of any relevance to him? Seriously. He has to do what he think is best for the people of the UK.

The impatience of some Polish/Belgian/Swedish/etc/etc people are of no real consequence to him or the future of his country really.

Joe_ Public

Dominic Raab and his rictus grin on my telly box earlier, saying with as straight a face as he can muster, that there is absolutely no border down the Irish Sea. So how will there be checks then? Well....well....technology dont you know, our old pals alternative arrangements to the rescue yet again.

They haven't gone away, you know!

seamus

Shelga wrote: »

Even I'm sick of listening to Chuka Ummuna at this stage. He needs to accept that the remain side has utterly failed to coalesce around an alternative to exiting the EU, beyond 'remain'.

Why would the remain side come up with alternatives to remaining. They want to remain.

The remain group have had a singular goal, a singular message, a singular purpose. And you accuse them of "failing to coalesce".

While across the table you have the Brexit crew, who have not even once, in 3 years of talking and negotiating, come up with a solid definition of what "Brexit" is, or ever was, supposed to be.

I appreciate the sentiment that the rest of the EU are sick of this joke of a country causing chaos for the last three years. But I'm not going to criticise the guys who are appealing for calm and sanity when you have other MPs hanging from the rafters throwing faeces around.

Shelga

lawred2 wrote: »

Why would that be of any relevance to him? Seriously. He has to do what he think is best for the people of the UK.

The impatience of some Polish/Belgian/Swedish/etc/etc people are of no real consequence to him or the future of his country really.

Yeah, I get that- I’m just so sick of all of it. Was just venting really.

Enzokk

For all of those saying the deal passes with Labour votes tomorrow, has the facts changed since February?

Labour will be punished by voters if it gives any backing at all to Brexit

Jeremy Corbyn’s letter to Theresa May last night offering to slightly soften his Brexit stance risks stirring a backlash from Labour supporters. A new poll makes it devastatingly clear that if Labour is perceived as having enabled Brexit, it will lose 45 seats – including five of its seven precious Scottish seats.

Labour’s true heartlands are remain: four-fifths of Labour voters think May’s deal will hurt the British economy and 91% of them don’t trust the government to deliver a good Brexit. Remainers will desert and punish the party in droves unless it opposes Brexit. This outlook comes from a large poll of more than 5,000 people – it was commissioned by TSSA, the transport union, which has always backed Corbyn. It was meant to be private advice to him, but it leaked. “There can be no disguising the sense of disappointment and disillusionment with Labour if it fails to oppose Brexit, and there is every indication that it will be far more damaging to the party’s electoral fortunes than the Iraq war,” the polling document reports.

“Labour would especially lose the support of people below the age of 35, which could make this issue comparable to the impact the tuition fees and involvement in the coalition had on Lib Dem support.”

Corbyn is less popular now with those under 35 than Johnson. People in that age bracket are more likely to vote Remain, but Labour confirming Brexit will happen? Labour will need a sweetener to make it happen and that has to be a confirmatory referendum, anything else should be opposed and those that vote for the deal needs to be expelled.

fergiesfolly

Bertie Ahern on the Pat Kenny show on NT. thinks the DUP will abstain on Saturday, meaning BS won't need 320 to pass the deal.
I think it was an interview on another station where Nigel Dodds would only say that that would not support the deal, not that they'd vote against it.
The deal passes, the DUP get they're sweetener from Boris and get to tell their constituents that they didn't back the deal.

Shelga

seamus wrote: »

Why would the remain side come up with alternatives to remaining. They want to remain.

The remain group have had a singular goal, a singular message, a singular purpose. And you accuse them of "failing to coalesce".

While across the table you have the Brexit crew, who have not even once, in 3 years of talking and negotiating, come up with a solid definition of what "Brexit" is, or ever was, supposed to be.

I appreciate the sentiment that the rest of the EU are sick of this joke of a country causing chaos for the last three years. But I'm not going to criticise the guys who are appealing for calm and sanity when you have other MPs hanging from the rafters throwing faeces around.

Chuka Ummuna has been in three separate political parties, this year alone. He has hardly had a singular message and a singular purpose. The Liberal Democrats are a wildly different party to Labour.

Joe_ Public

The impatience of EU politicians seems of paramount concern to me anyway, especially for remainers. While an extension may be granted, I'd be a little concerned with the frostiness of a lot of EU replies to the suggestion. Consensus seems there MUST be a good reason stated in the request so it's possible a bit more than a Benn letter will be required.

Akrasia

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Dominic Raab and his rictus grin on my telly box earlier, saying with as straight a face as he can muster, that there is absolutely no border down the Irish Sea. So how will there be checks then? Well....well....technology dont you know, our old pals alternative arrangements to the rescue yet again.

They haven't gone away, you know!

There's a whopping big moat between NI and the UK. Putting a customs border in the Irish sea was always the most sensible thing to do given that there are requirements for security checks getting on boats and airplanes anyway

Enzokk

We will see a lot of spin in the next few days about how good Johnson has been to get this deal, but let us not forget what actually happened,

https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1184801860579930114?s=20

So the EU said no new deal or changes to the backstop but apparently that happened so all hail Johnson. But the movement happened because he reversed from the UK position and all of a sudden, movement. Who knew going back to what the EU wanted would make them move to that position. The analysis written if this deal goes through will be fascinating in 5-10 years time when the hyperbole has died down and the consequences (worse deal for the UK than May's, only slightly better than no-deal) have been felt and confirmed.

Joe_ Public

Akrasia wrote: »

There's a whopping big moat between NI and the UK. Putting a customs border in the Irish sea was always the most sensible thing to do given that there are requirements for security checks getting on boats and airplanes anyway

Yeah, he was obviously trying to suggest it's such a soft border as to not really exist at all but if/when the EU goes about protecting the SM integrity, let's see how that spin stands up.

First Up

It is interesting to watch how closely the whole saga is following the Bereavement/Change curve - from denial and anger through to eventual acceptance.

The path is predictable (and inevitable) but not necessarily continuous - it sometimes sways back a bit before moving on so its hard to calculate when it will end.

Some of the parties are moving through it at different speeds - the ERG and DUP competing for last place as usual.

Anyway we are now in the Bargaining/Experimentation phase, with the Depression and Acceptance phases still to come.

We'll get there but as with all bereavement curves, reviving the corpse is not one of the options.

prawnsambo

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

And they haven't said it ends uncertainty. They've said they're giving it a 'guarded welcome' and that there are additional administrative burdens, with issues to be decided in a FTA. They've basically calculated it's the least worst option compared to the potential of a crash-out Brexit, which from their point of view is correct.

They said that what's good is that a deal is struck and they can move on to more positive things. It's not saying it ends uncertainty in those very words, but the meaning is the same.

FrancieBrady

So what is the consensus this morning...is this going to get through the HoC?

And if somebody could outline the timeline for the debate tomorrow in the HoC, that would be great too. Hopefully it doesn't clash with a little sporting event in the Land Of The Rising Sun tomorrow!

ToBeFrank123

FrancieBrady wrote: »

So what is the consensus this morning...is this going to get through the HoC?

If the DUP abstain, there's a small chance it will. If they do not abstain and vote against, it will likely fail. Lets hope they abstain.

Joe_ Public

Enzokk wrote: »

For all of those saying the deal passes with Labour votes tomorrow, has the facts changed since February?

Labour will be punished by voters if it gives any backing at all to Brexit



Corbyn is less popular now with those under 35 than Johnson. People in that age bracket are more likely to vote Remain, but Labour confirming Brexit will happen? Labour will need a sweetener to make it happen and that has to be a confirmatory referendum, anything else should be opposed and those that vote for the deal needs to be expelled.

Very fascinating dynamic going on with Labour. That piece saying Labour true heartlands are remain. Well maybe I'm a traditionalist, but I understood that Labour's heartland was the industrial Midlands and North where leave vote was strongest. Just shows you how the sands are shifting and the nature of the dilemma that confronts them. I can't blame Corbyn for not wanting to abandon the old areas, but maybe that's how they'll have to go.

I also think he's popular with young generation, despite what figures say. At least that's sense you get when he's out on the campaign trail.

Shelga

Also, I totally understand MPs wanting to remain- but for the rest of us, is a deeply divided, toxic UK that will do nothing but cause trouble, whingeing about how democracy has been betrayed, sending their ~30 Brexit Party MEPs to the EU parliament for eternity really what we want?? I certainly don’t.

prawnsambo

Alex Andreou hits the nail on the head in one tweet.

PokeHerKing

Will the EU be setting up custom checks at NI ports if this deal passes?

First Up

PokeHerKing wrote:

Will the EU be setting up custom checks at NI ports if this deal passes?

The EU doesn't set up customs posts.

Water John

If DUP were to abstain, though that looks unlikely, it would mean the Govn't could continue to function if they get back most of those it expelled.
https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/dup-holding-firm-as-mps-plan-to-vote-against-johnsons-brexit-deal-958088.html

Are the DUP still open for discussions/money that would encourage them to abstain? Well the abortion question is important to them, for example.

ancapailldorcha

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

If the DUP abstain, there's a small chance it will. If they do not abstain and vote against, it will likely fail. Lets hope they abstain.

Why would they? I'm hoping this thing burns in the HoC and there's no way they'll do anything to permit the Irish sea border. All 10 of them will be there to vote it down.

LuckyLloyd

lawred2 wrote: »

Why would that be of any relevance to him? Seriously. He has to do what he think is best for the people of the UK.

The impatience of some Polish/Belgian/Swedish/etc/etc people are of no real consequence to him or the future of his country really.

Then get out there and start rustling up real street protest, start getting unions organised to strike, etc. Stop ****ing about talking irrelevant nonsense
and hopping around the benches in the commons to the benefit of his own political career.

FrancieBrady

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

If the DUP abstain, there's a small chance it will. If they do not abstain and vote against, it will likely fail. Lets hope they abstain.

How could they 'abstain' and keep straight faces?


Edit: Nevermind, I think I know the answer.

Zubeneschamali

prawnsambo wrote: »

It won't take many to turn this around.

Yes, it will. Many, many more than voted for May's deal, and there is zero reason for them to do it.

If they reject this deal, the very worst that can happen is Johnson wins an election and passes this deal without their help.

The best is that they win an election, which is what every politician is in politics to do.

Shelga

Also, Labour MPs must be aware that if they vote for this, they are likely ushering in another 5 years with Boris as PM, as they’ll be facilitating his ability to declare himself in a GE campaign as the incredible statesman who “got Brexit done”- vom.

ToBeFrank123

Everytime the HoC reject a deal in the hope of getting a better deal, they end up getting a worse deal.