Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Joe_ Public

DUP - deal is detrimental to economic well being of NI. This from the shower that was quite relaxed about a no deal brexit. Gave me a chuckle anyway.

sliabh 1956

Listening to SoR If what Coveney says is correct the DUP are so blinded by their hatred of all things Republic is quite scary. Imagine the mayhem they would create if there ever was a united Ireland

Zubeneschamali

Bambi wrote: »

Guess who was told to blink and did?

Boris Johnson.

Nothing to do with the EU either - he gambled everything on an Oct 31st deadline, and then the House of Commons passed the Benn act, so he had to accept the EU offer to get a deal by his own deadline.

This deal is just May's deal with the lipstick wiped off, so it is fine by the EU.

Joe_ Public

Shelga wrote: »

Also, Labour MPs must be aware that if they vote for this, they are likely ushering in another 5 years with Boris as PM, as they’ll be facilitating his ability to declare himself in a GE campaign as the incredible statesman who “got Brexit done”- vom.

And if they bring it down they'll be relentlessly portrayed as the party that thwarted brexit. Probably way they have to go anyway, but it's not a fantastic position to be in. Will have to have a smart strategy to counter it.

Christy Sweets

Shelga wrote: »

Also, Labour MPs must be aware that if they vote for this, they are likely ushering in another 5 years with Boris as PM, as they’ll be facilitating his ability to declare himself in a GE campaign as the incredible statesman who “got Brexit done”- vom.

I'm afraid there are plenty of Labour MPs who would be prepared to accept that if it got rid of Corbyn.

PokeHerKing

First Up wrote: »

The EU doesn't set up customs posts.

So is it up to the NI/UK government to police NI ports to adhere to SM rules, or how will it work?

Water John

Yes the UK Govn't is the one checking at Larne. But then the large majority of goods for NI go through Dublin.

First Up

PokeHerKing wrote:

So is it up to the NI/UK government to police NI ports to adhere to SM rules, or how will it work?

All countries are responsible for their own borders.

moon2

First Up wrote: »

All countries are responsible for their own borders.

And Northern Ireland will be responsible for applying the import/export rules at their borders. Those rules will be the EU rules.

(edit: I don't think you're disagreeing with that statement, but i've seen enough people asking this that it's worth spelling it out very clearly )

CelticRambler

Imreoir2 wrote: »

To an extent, though any company thinking of investing somewhere in the UK (all else being equal) would surely prefer NI which may or may not fall out of the EU in 4 years over GB which already has fallen out of the EU.

I disagree. Any company investing in the UK in the near future will be doing so to take maximum advantage of regulatory dis-alignment with the EU, and they'll be better able to do so in the fully deviated, deregulated GB than the half-in, half-out environment of NI.

There's no reason to believe that standards in GB will be higher/tighter than in the EU, so when a trade deal is finally agreed, EU products/services will be immediately compliant with GB standards; anything produced or provided by a company in NI will still have to be re-certified by the EU.

The situation was very nicely summed up by a certain Boris Johnson recently, when he spoke at the conference off a certain Democratic Unionist Party:

https://twitter.com/ByDonkeys/status/1184738823420502016

Joe_ Public

PokeHerKing wrote: »

So is it up to the NI/UK government to police NI ports to adhere to SM rules, or how will it work?

I imagine it will be very much in UKs interests to ensure NI will not be used as a gateway for illegal goods into SM via Ireland.

FrancieBrady

Listening to Gregory Campbell it sounds like the DUP are holding a gun to the GFA and threatening to shoot if they lose tomorrow.

'Do this and we can legitimately ignore/forget the GFA'.

I suppose they have to find a silver lining in a very dark cloud for them.

PokeHerKing

Water John wrote: »

Yes the UK Govn't is the one checking at Larne. But then the large majority of goods for NI go through Dublin.

So the Irish Market will be dependent on HMG to uphold the integrity of goods that enter it?

Seems contradictory, how can the integrity of the SM be upheld if its borders are being policed by a non EU member government?

Dyr

VinLieger wrote: »

Indeed their history of campaigning against every EU referendum shows their true feelings on the EU.


Much like the DUP tried to do they are simply using this situation for their own benefit, however they are going about it far smarter way by shutting the hell up and letting FG push the agenda for them here and have the DUP stomp all over everything up North, whatever the result SF's hands are completely clean both North and South, its very clever.

Internally SF know that they have to ditch their euroscepticism.

Bear in mind that SF were actually quite pleased with the Anglo Irish Agreement but raised blue murder about it in public because it didn't suit them to admit that it was a step forward

The DUP did the same in the run up to the Saint Andrews agreement and are possibly doing it again with this agreement.

SF were out banging bin lids (where do they even get them?) in border towns the night of this agreement, it made them look silly. They're increasingly being tied up in the inherent contradictions of their own positions. Probably wont damage them in the north much but in the republic its a different matter

GM228

I find it pretty astonishing that no mainstream media is reporting on the case (running for a good 35 minutes now) in Scotland debating if the new WA is lawful in accordance with the Taxation (Cross-Border Trade) Act 2018.

Lord Pentland has indicated that due to the limited timeframe that the court may rule today.

Enzokk

GM228 wrote: »

I find it pretty astonishing that no mainstream media is reporting on the case (running for a good 35 minutes now) in Scotland debating if the new WA is lawful in accordance with the Taxation (Cross-Border Trade) Act 2018.

Lord Pentland has indicated that due to the limited timeframe that the court may rule today.

Is there a link to a live feed? I thought one of the cases was being broadcast live today?

robinph

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Everytime the HoC reject a deal in the hope of getting a better deal, they end up getting a worse deal.

No it hasn't. First they rejected Mays deal, then they rejected Mays exactly the same deal, then they rejected Mays exactly the same deal printed in a different font and then on Saturday they will get to vote on Mays deal again with Johnsons name on it and a backstop that has been renamed as a border down the Irish sea.

Nothing has changed apart from the number of times the same deal has been brought back each time.

Joe_ Public

Conservative whip apparently rang Sam Gwyimah last night to get him to vote for the deal. Shows how desperate they are.

Zubeneschamali

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo wrote: »

But having Stormant vote every 4 years in perpetuity is not a good arrangement.

Ah, but the DUP have to either eat their words or campaign to destroy NIs business and farming communities every 4 years.

They are doomed.

Enzokk

For those people who think just getting this deal done will be the end of it, the next deadline is June next year. There will be only a few months of quiet before a decision will have to be made on whether an extension will be applied for, for the transition period. If no extension and no FTA and it is the cliff edge again of no-deal, or WTO trade. Good time ahead.

GM228

Enzokk wrote: »

Is there a link to a live feed? I thought one of the cases was being broadcast live today?

See here where I mentioned it yesterday, but it's the COA case being streamed today, not the Scottish case which is an urgent case only launched yesterday and being heard currently.

Live link to COA here:-

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RqipUUjaIgA

LuckyLloyd

Yeah the strength of this arrangement is that the responsibility for the economic / security / political consequences of leaving the arrangement would be squarely borne by the NI politicians voting for it. The DUP have always been able to hide behind other things for regressive politics before.

LuckyLloyd

Enzokk wrote: »

For those people who think just getting this deal done will be the end of it, the next deadline is June next year. There will be only a few months of quiet before a decision will have to be made on whether an extension will be applied for, for the transition period. If no extension and no FTA and it is the cliff edge again of no-deal, or WTO trade. Good time ahead.

But it won’t matter to us in Ireland as we’ll have the “front stop” in place.

CelticRambler

Bobby McDonagh, former Irish ambassador to UK & EU, was just on Sky saying that this deal takes the wind out of the United Ireland sails. Having thought overnight about the proposed four-year rolling referendum, I think that's completely wrong, and the DUP are right to be afraid.

In effect, that same vote could be used by the SoS for NI as a UI barometer. In the more-likely-than-not event that the UK suffers economically in the short to medium term, they'll be looking seriously for opportunities to cut costs, and the biggest on-going cost to the nation is the annual subsidy for NI.

If the population of NI (or at least their elected representatives) have indicated that they prefer to remain aligned with the RoI than GB - because essentially "no hard border" does equal alignment with the very tangible RoI rather than the vague and distant EU - then why would Westminster want to keep the troublesome province?

Over five years, NI will have benefited from a hefty £3.5bn of EU funds [pdf]; that's on top of the annual GB hand-out, and it's going to evaporate next year. With GB farmers and factories also losing their EU funding, there's going to be very little GB tax revenue to spread around - but just across the invisible border, the still EU-funded Irish hills will be genuinely greener when looked upon by the people of the Six Counties.

Rarely do I have any sympathy for the DUP, but on this point, I do believe they've been frog-marched into a "pre-UI referendum" by Johnson, and they would be completely insane not to vote against the bill.

Enzokk

robinph wrote: »

No it hasn't. First they rejected Mays deal, then they rejected Mays exactly the same deal, then they rejected Mays exactly the same deal printed in a different font and then on Saturday they will get to vote on Mays deal again with Johnsons name on it and a backstop that has been renamed as a border down the Irish sea.

Nothing has changed apart from the number of times the same deal has been brought back each time.

Almost right, Johnson has the same deal but with the backstop possibly happening to it definitely happening. There is no negotiations further on trying to keep the border open, alternative arrangements is a busted flush and will probably never be mentioned ever again. What a wast of time.

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Ah, but the DUP have to either eat their words or campaign to destroy NIs business and farming communities every 4 years.

They are doomed.

But Raab said this morning that NI has a brilliant deal, they have unfettered access to the EU single market? Why would they possibly give that up? Why would anyone leave such a brilliant deal?

GM228 wrote: »

See here where I mentioned it yesterday, but it's the COA case being streamed today, not the Scottish case which is an urgent case only launched yesterday and being heard currently.

Thank you!

Joe_ Public

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Conservative whip apparently rang Sam Gwyimah last night to get him to vote for the deal. Shows how desperate they are.

Gonna be extraodinarily tight. One of the group Boris needs above all others to get says no........unless.


https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1185127048207130625?s=20

Joe_ Public

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Gonna be extraodinarily tight. One of the group Boris needs above all others to get says no........unless.


https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1185127048207130625?s=20

I think they have 3 lab votes potentially in the bag but no real hope of dup and very likely 3 Tory rebels minimum will oppose. Very much odds against passing i would think.

Enzokk

I am not sure if this tweet were posted yesterday as the thread was moving very quickly, but to give you an idea why the EU is happy with this deal,

https://twitter.com/MarkUrban01/status/1184966246141513730?s=20

So the objective for Barnier 2 weeks ago was to get the UK to move to a NI only backstop but not convince them that this is what was happening. I am still astonished that the ERG and those Tories that opposed May's deal is thinking of backing Johnson inferior deal now.

I think if this deal passes they win the next election, on the back of Corbyn's luck finally running out and Johnson having the momentum from this "win". Then there is 5 years of consequences of this deal to be felt until the next election, with a new Labour leader and 5 more years of austerity you would think that a Blair like majority will be in the offing for Labour in 2024. But for the sake of those vulnerable families and people who will be hurt these will be 5 long and hard years ahead.

Imreoir2

PokeHerKing wrote: »

So the Irish Market will be dependent on HMG to uphold the integrity of goods that enter it?

Seems contradictory, how can the integrity of the SM be upheld if its borders are being policed by a non EU member government?

Would have to check the detail, but I am sure the UK would be subject to the ECJ for its enforcement of border controls.

FrancieBrady

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Would have to check the detail, but I am sure the UK would be subject to the ECJ for its enforcement of border controls.

Any flagrant abuses would also impact on any trade deal they get. There'd be no incentive to mess with it.