Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

lawred2

schmittel wrote: »

Bit late now to be complaining about the intransigence of the DUP

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1185168667102855178

If you lie down with dogs, you get up with fleas...

"Wilson in particular is being "annoying" is a damning understatement of him and the DUP!

Spartans?

dinorebel

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

The DUP have been a complete gift to progressive Irish nationalism. In a matter of months we'll likely have equal marriage, reproductive rights, and a new all-Ireland paradigm.

Incredible.

Do you remember the Brexit Bus (350m a month for the NHS)? the DUP are now under it.

trellheim

Some Spartans frustrated at Sammy Wilson / Ian Paisley Jnr / Nigel Dodds counter-whipping operation trying to get them to oppose the deal

One says Wilson in particular is being “annoying” and is hell-bent on no-deal

Spartans = ERG basically. Mark Francois/Steve Baker. No brexit is too hard for them. Although the ERG finding DUP too hardcore/proponents of No deal is risible. This is what happens when free trade hawks/headbangers/idiots finally diverge from tribalism

hometruths

lawred2 wrote: »

Spartans?

The Spartans are the hard ERGers who voted against May's deal three times.

No idea how these MPs gather up names for their gangs like they are in a playground but it seems to be another one of these endearingly British conventions.

Kermit.de.frog

John Mann, Labour MP, saying at least 9 Labour MPs will be voting for the deal.

David Trimble has come out and urged MPs to pass the deal saying it is "compatible with the GFA".

Nate--IRL--

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

David Trimble has come out and urged MPs to pass the deal saying it is "compatible with the GFA".

That is a surprise!


Nate

LeinsterDub

https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1185177682465701888

This one is coming out of left field for me. What's happening here?

joe40

I'm not sure what I want on Saturday. In one way it would be great to get a WA and move onto the next stage without a "no deal" exit.

But at the same time the vast majority of MPs opposing the deal aren't doing so because they want a hard Brexit, on the contrary they're looking for softer Brexit or second referendum with a view to remain.

The hardcore looking for a "no deal" exit are quite a small minority in the HoC.

Would the best outcome for Ireland be defeat of this deal in the HoC.

The Benn act should ensure no "no deal" so a general election will take place.

worst case scenario then is a tory government, but they'll just put through this agreement again and pass it.
Or some other form of government Labour/Lib Dem that may pursue a less harmful Brexit.

This is quite a hard Brexit and if UK suffer economically it will still have an impact on us.

Is my logic flawed in some way?

Kermit.de.frog

Sammy Wilson running around Westminster like a lunatic apparently pleading with MPs to reject.

They say he is annoying :pac:

Joe_ Public

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1185177682465701888

This one is coming out of left field for me. What's happening here?

Letwin amendment would basically hold up the vote to allow extension on basis legislation cant be passed in time. There would be no vote on it saturday but gov would go on with legislation i think.

Tea Shock

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Jasus Christ never let the audience of QT talk about Ireland.

A special present for anyone who missed this absolute nugget!

https://twitter.com/JaneyGodley/status/1185161142617985024

This is what we've been dealing with folks!

hometruths

This morning I thought Johnson would get this passed tomorrow. Now I am not so sure. Wheels could coming off after remarks from an ERGer saying that they could use this as back door to no deal...

That will wipe out the rebel Tories and any would be Labour rebels if the story gains legs.

https://twitter.com/peoplesvote_uk/status/1185160014421299200

CarPark2

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

They've said No to all 3 votes on Mays WA and look likely to say the same this time. They've said No I think to another referendum and probably said No to revoke. I think they also said No to the Benn Act.

Going back further they said No to the Good Friday Agreement and the Anglo Irish Agreement, and back further again, Paisley said No to Sunningdale.

They also want to say No to abortion. And have said No to pretty much everything else.

History tells us if you put a question before the DUP, they will answer with a No, including if the question was to revoke article 50.

They said Yes to the Leave Referendum!!!

In all seriousness, Newton Emerson said that the DUP are all tactics and no strategy. Their stated overall aim is to protect the union. When the assembly was up and running and Brexit referendum hadn't yet happened, there was no threat at all to the Union.
Then
- They campaigned for Brexit, including some shady dealings. Brexit was always going to weaken the union as it crystallised all of the issues around identity, nationhood, borders etc. that had been made amorphous under the GFA.
- They have resisted attempts to restart the Assembly, thereby further weakening the case that the status quo in NI is something that should be protected and/or that NI's current status is sustainable.
- They resisted attempts by Enda Kenny to get into a conversation about how the relationship between NI and RoI would work post-Brexit
- They voted against May's deal which guaranteed NIs place in the union
- They didn't work with May to come up with any alternative to her deal
- They fraternised with BoJo, Rees Mogg & Co and isolated May, even though May (despite all of her flaws) has a lot of integrity and loyalty and BoJo has none
- They failed to foresee the fact that their constituents, and particularly business and farmers would HATE a no-deal brexit

All of this has led to today, where they are between a rock and a hard-place.
BoJo has sold them out (it was always a case that BoJo cared about his own career more than anything and ERG care about a clean Brexit more than the Union); the current deal which may be passed is much worse for them than May's deal and many of their constituents are so worried about No-Deal that they will swallow this deal.

To make it worse, their confidence and supply agreement drew attention of MPs to NI for the first time in years. I think that many were shocked at how socially conservative the DUP are and it has prompted the bill which will introduce abortion and marriage equality rights in NI.

I don't foresee a united Ireland in the coming years, but this deal undoubtedly weakens the union.

I have a lot of sympathy for unionists (forcing them into united Ireland is no better than nationalists being part of the UK against their will), but their political representatives have completely failed to set out a vision of where they see NI in 10, 20 or 30 years time. Their only aim is to avoid unification and creeping Dublin influence. The lack of a positive vision leaves them with only short-term tactics and no long-term strategy.

The high horse brigade

Tea Shock wrote: »

A special present for anyone who missed this absolute nugget!

https://twitter.com/JaneyGodley/status/1185161142617985024

This is what we've been dealing with folks!

Holy sh1t

Tea Shock

schmittel wrote: »

This morning I thought Johnson would get this passed tomorrow. Now I am not so sure. Wheels could coming off after remarks from an ERGer saying that they could use this as back door to no deal...

That will wipe out the rebel Tories and any would be Labour rebels if the story gains legs.

https://twitter.com/peoplesvote_uk/status/1185160014421299200

It assumes that after a general election, there will be a Tory majority (with no more Tory rebels) and an opposition that won't have the power to pass amendments similar to the Been Act!

Another whole year of fun!

GM228

Interesting letter submitted today on behalf of Bercow to the Scottish court:-

https://www.dropbox.com/s/dv0bqsri3wyqty0/Letter Advocate General and Balfour %2BManson 17 October 2019.pdf?dl=0

Essentially saying the court can decide on the lawfulness of the WA, but can't prevent it coming before the house tomorrow (it should be noted that argument was rejected in the Wightman & Ors vs Secretary of State[2018] CSOH 61 case).

Judgement due to be made at 5pm.

ToBeFrank123

The DUP are saying the deal is incompatible with the GFA, the same GFA they opposed tooth and nail when it was signed.

johnnyskeleton

Tea Shock wrote: »

A special present for anyone who missed this absolute nugget!

https://twitter.com/JaneyGodley/status/1185161142617985024

This is what we've been dealing with folks!

Am I missing something? He's an English guy suggesting that a United Ireland would be useful to help get Brexit. Not a bad idea at all, Leo Varadkar had a similar suggestion.

As to him saying that people underestimated Boris, I'd agree that they did, but not quite for the same reasons. He didn't go off and win a victory that no one expected of him, they underestimated his ability to abandon the DUP, ERG and other hardliners. If he can get Labour support for the revised agreement, you'd have to doff your cap to Boris for being able to lie to everybody and find a solution that nobody wants, but still be praised for it.

lawred2

Tea Shock wrote: »

A special present for anyone who missed this absolute nugget!

https://twitter.com/JaneyGodley/status/1185161142617985024

This is what we've been dealing with folks!

huh?

Surely withdrawing from Northern Ireland is an eminently sensible approach to solving Westminster's problems with Ireland.

Kermit.de.frog

Another Labour switch to the deal

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1185180698321309696


A lot of Labour MPs are in strong leave constituencies.

Always worth remembering.

Tea Shock

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

He's an English guy suggesting that a United Ireland would be useful to help get Brexit.

lawred2 wrote: »

huh?

Surely withdrawing from Northern Ireland is an eminently sensible approach to solving Westminster's problems with Ireland.

If that had been the language he used, he might have look a lot less thick!

But after all this time, he STILL has zero understanding of the significance of "that one issue" and appears to have the perception that the DUP are on the same side as the EU and even possibly that the DUP want a United Ireland!

Varta

Tea Shock wrote: »

A special present for anyone who missed this absolute nugget!

https://twitter.com/JaneyGodley/status/1185161142617985024

This is what we've been dealing with folks!

Maybe I'm missing something, but I just saw an Englishman on BBC say that Britain should get out of Ireland and people are calling him stupid. I want to give him a reward and ask him to persuade all his friends too.

lawred2

Tea Shock wrote: »

If that had been the language he used, he might have look a lot less thick!

But after all this time, he STILL has zero understanding of the significance of "that one issue" and appears to have the perception that the DUP are on the same side as the EU and even possibly that the DUP want a United Ireland!

Who cares if you don't understand the intricacies of the process once you know the actual solution?

Kermit.de.frog

FT reporting Boris probably now has majority of one...



https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1185181280100585478


I suspect more weak Labour MPs will be picked off too...

Varta

Varta wrote: »

Maybe I'm missing something, but I just saw an Englishman on BBC say that Britain should get out of Ireland and people are calling him stupid. I want to give him a reward and ask him to persuade all his friends too.

Looking at it again, all of the fools on twitter vilifying him are just making themselves look/seem stupid. Twitter really is full of twits.

Joe_ Public

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Another Labour switch to the deal

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1185180698321309696


A lot of Labour MPs are in strong leave constituencies.

Always worth remembering.

Im not that surprised. I recall a while back herself and Caroline Flint suggest theyd back a no deal before remain. Flint likely to back it too. Could be up to 8 or 9 of them but not sure it would be enough.

Igotadose

Varta wrote: »

Maybe I'm missing something, but I just saw an Englishman on BBC say that Britain should get out of Ireland and people are calling him stupid. I want to give him a reward and ask him to persuade all his friends too.

If not for that video, I'd never learned what 'wazzock' meant.

lawred2

I find the faux collective intake of breath from the panel about 'breaking up the union' as more insulting to be honest..

what f**king union?

jimmycrackcorm

CelticRambler wrote: »

Rarely do I have any sympathy for the DUP, but on this point, I do believe they've been frog-marched into a "pre-UI referendum" by Johnson, and they would be completely insane not to vote against the bill.

The DUP do not deserve any sympathy whatsoever. They didn't have the same concerns as the English about the EU. Immigration was never a problem in NI and logically being in the EU is huge positive for their rural heartlands.

The only conclusion that can be drawn is that they saw this as an opportunity to recreate the border that they despise the GFA for removing.

Varta

Tea Shock wrote: »

If that had been the language he used, he might have look a lot less thick!

But after all this time, he STILL has zero understanding of the significance of "that one issue" and appears to have the perception that the DUP are on the same side as the EU and even possibly that the DUP want a United Ireland!

He did not look thick. He was actually quite articulate and he was very clear about uniting Ireland. I think people on twitter rushed to join with the original poster without actually listening to the clip. 'Mansplaining' brought quite a few of them running.