Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Harry Palmr

lawred2 wrote: »

Who cares if you don't understand the intricacies of the process once you know the actual solution?

Said many a Brexiteer for example.

Joe_ Public

I recall too Theresa May was offering bribes to labour mps in leave constituencies to support a deal so very likely the same thing is going on here.

lawred2

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Said many a Brexiteer for example.

That would make sense if Brexiteers had defined what the problem was that Brexit was a solution to.

Tea Shock

Varta wrote: »

He did not look thick. He was actually quite articulate and he was very clear about uniting Ireland. I think people on twitter rushed to join with the original poster without actually listening to the clip. 'Mansplaining' brought quite a few of them running.

He did look thick! He thought he was inventing the concept of a United Ireland - but didn't actually know there was already a "United Ireland" term!

LeinsterDub

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

The DUP are saying the deal is incompatible with the GFA, the same GFA they opposed tooth and nail when it was signed.

The same GFA they where happy to throw under the bus last week when they thought they were getting a veto.

johnnyskeleton

Tea Shock wrote: »

If that had been the language he used, he might have look a lot less thick!

But after all this time, he STILL has zero understanding of the significance of "that one issue" and appears to have the perception that the DUP are on the same side as the EU and even possibly that the DUP want a United Ireland!

I don't think so. The presenter at the end says "so are you saying we should break up the union" and he says "well, yes"

LeinsterDub

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I suspect more weak Labour MPs will be picked off too...

Alot of Labour MPs are looking for any excuse to break cover. If you see reports of a majority on paper of 5 or 6. It could easily end up being 30

J Mysterio

Momentum’s Jon Lansman has warned that any Labour MP who votes for the deal should be deselected ahead of the next election, although Corbyn has told MPs he will not remove the whip from rebels.

https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/boris-johnson-15-labour-votes-brexit

If Corbyn doesn't threaten to remove the whip, the vote will surely pass?
Corbyn should resign.

Varta

Tea Shock wrote: »

He did look thick! He thought he was inventing the concept of a United Ireland - but didn't actually know there was already a "United Ireland" term!

No. That's not true. You jumped in and made an error. Fine. Just let it go. And BTW the concept of a UI would be something totally new for most people in Britain.

Joe_ Public

Worth remembering all the May votes were preceded with predictions of big numbers of labour rebels and most you ended up with was 5 i think. You never know but i wouldnt get carried away this time either.

Varta

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Worth remembering all the May votes were preceded with predictions of big numbers of labour rebels and most you ended up with was 5 i think. You never know but i wouldnt get carried away this time either.

I imagine you are sitting with your fingers crossed Joe, but this time I think it really is different. This time it really is "Let's get this done".

MrMusician18

Varta wrote: »

I imagine you are sitting with your fingers crossed Joe, but this time I think it really is different. This time it really is "Let's get this done".

Johnson does seem to have a bit of momentum behind him at the moment but the longer this goes on the more likely it is that the MPs he's hoping for get cold feet.

Does look like he'll get the numbers though.

We are heading towards no deal in 2020...

Mezcita

Varta wrote: »

I imagine you are sitting with your fingers crossed Joe, but this time I think it really is different. This time it really is "Let's get this done".

Hardly. If the EU had said that they were unwilling to offer an extension then it would really be ''Let's get this done"' time.

As is if they vote it down the can gets kicked down the road once again. The EU could simply keep on offering extensions for years.

CelticRambler

Tea Shock wrote: »

https://twitter.com/JaneyGodley/status/1185161142617985024

This is what we've been dealing with folks!

Ignoring his adulation of Johnson, he is undoubtedly the perfect representation of "the British" with which the capital-U Unionists identify.

Tea Shock wrote: »

But after all this time, he STILL has zero understanding of the significance of "that one issue" and appears to have the perception that the DUP are on the same side as the EU and even possibly that the DUP want a United Ireland!

On the contrary: he understands perfectly that, as a British Englishman, his country is being told what to do and how to do it by a bunch of cantankerous Irishmen. It doesn't matter one iota to him - and by extension to the rest of his kind in England - how the DUP & Co. care to identifty themselves, in his eyes they are not part of Britain and should get on with life on their own island without interfering with his. That's a perfectly reasonable position to adopt.

Shelga

So are they voting on the Letwin amendment tomorrow? And if that passes, there’ll be no vote on the deal?

thecretinhop

anyone any idea when it starts how long etc when is vote?

CarPark2

Mezcita wrote: »

Hardly. If the EU had said that they were unwilling to offer an extension then it would really be ''Let's get this done"' time.

As if if they vote it down the can gets kicked down the road once again. The EU could simply keep on offering extensions for years.

I think the point is that voters are tired of this issue and want it sorted. This is a reasonable way to sort it (as was May's deal). With either a three month extension or a deal, there is likely to be an election soon, and many MPs will prefer to have an election on issues like housing, jobs, services etc. rather than Brexit. Especially in Leave constituencies, MPs will be reluctant to face the electorate having blocked a deal that would allow Brexit to happen.

LuckyLloyd

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Johnson does seem to have a bit of momentum behind him at the moment but the longer this goes on the more likely it is that the MPs he's hoping for get cold feet.

Does look like he'll get the numbers though.

We are heading towards no deal in 2020...

No Deal in 2020 with the front stop in place will be much less impactful from an Irish perspective. Let them go with that if they like, but they’ll be back at the negotiating table in short order except this time we aren’t in play as a bargaining chip

Varta

Mezcita wrote: »

Hardly. If the EU had said that they were unwilling to offer an extension then it would really be ''Let's get this done"' time.

As is if they vote it down the can gets kicked down the road once again. The EU could simply keep on offering extensions for years.

You can't deny that there is a real momentum now. It's just a question of for how long it can be sustained. If he doesn't get it through on Saturday it will grind to a halt again and Brexit will be a dead duck. Everything hangs on Saturday.

Hurrache

Tea Shock wrote: »

A special present for anyone who missed this absolute nugget!

https://twitter.com/JaneyGodley/status/1185161142617985024

This is what we've been dealing with folks!

He's become a bit infamous ever since
[url]

https://twitter.com/Ciaraioch/status/1185119634531508229?s=19[/url]

Call me Al

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

FT reporting Boris probably now has majority of one...



https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1185181280100585478


I suspect more weak Labour MPs will be picked off too...

Is that with the DUP abstaining or voting no?

Kermit.de.frog

It's with DUP voting against I assume.

Professor Moriarty

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Another Labour switch to the deal

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1185180698321309696


A lot of Labour MPs are in strong leave constituencies.

Always worth remembering.

But what is important is that most Labour voters are pro-Remain - 70% Remain and 21% Leave.

Interestingly and more importantly, in Leave seats, a majority of Labour voters would vote remain today - 65% Remain and 25% Leave.

This creates a serious dilemma for Labour MPs in Leave constiuencies

SharpshooterTom

Let them have a no deal and make the tories own it. There shouldn't be any Labour fingerprints on this debacle. If any Labour MP's are brainless enough to vote for this crap in helping assissting the tories, the party will go like the way of Lib Dems did in 2015 when they assissted the tories in austerity cuts and student tuition hikes following the 2008/09 crash. It wasn't the tories who got the blame for that at the ballot box.

Zubeneschamali

CarPark2 wrote: »

I think the point is that voters are tired of this issue and want it sorted.

Voting for this deal will not get anything "sorted", it will just start 10 years of national humiliation in trade talks, with regular shouting and roaring by Brexiteers about treachery, bullying, WTO terms and GATT24.

It will allow Johnson to claim an historic victory in all the papers and perhaps win the next election. Unclear why any Labour MP would vote for that, but it has become evident that the HoC is not full of rocket scientists.

Joe_ Public

Varta wrote: »

I imagine you are sitting with your fingers crossed Joe, but this time I think it really is different. This time it really is "Let's get this done".

Not really tbh, im only an observer interested in seeing how it goes. Its very difficult to call, even a chsnce id say of no vote at all tomorrow. Lot of stuff thst can happen yet.

J Mysterio

Should know better, but I decided to put a few euro down on the vote passing.

Joe_ Public

Shelga wrote: »

So are they voting on the Letwin amendment tomorrow? And if that passes, there’ll be no vote on the deal?

Bercow has to allow it but think he will. I think there might be a vote but pm will have to seek extension regardless. Im not sure exactly how clear it is yet.

Varta

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Not really tbh, im only an observer interested in seeing how it goes. Its very difficult to call, even a chsnce id say of no vote at all tomorrow. Lot of stuff thst can happen yet.

Fair enough. I thought you were hoping for remain. I started out in 2016 hoping that they would vote remain and for quite a while after I hoped they might find a way to save themselves, but their behaviour since and everything that they have revealed about themselves makes want to see the back of them now.

Mezcita

Varta wrote: »

You can't deny that there is a real momentum now. It's just a question of for how long it can be sustained. If he doesn't get it through on Saturday it will grind to a halt again and Brexit will be a dead duck. Everything hangs on Saturday.

Momentum for Johnson in that his ''die in a ditch'' comment might come back to haunt him. He needs a deal. If he fails an extension means that the never ending story just keeps going.