Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Shelga

Actually, this BBC article explains proceedings tomorrow quite well:

Brexit: What to expect from Parliament's Saturday sitting https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50095368

Basically, Letwin amendment will probably be selected, and if passed, could delay the vote on the actual WA for a few days, until the EU grant an extension.

That is a bit risky in and of itself, IMO- I’m sure many MPs will just want to get on and vote on Johnson’s deal without any more delays, whether they are for it or against. Also, Letwin amendment hands back control temporarily to the EU, does it not? It is contingent on them granting the extension.

Although, admittedly, using the word ‘control’ about any aspect of the UK in this process is laughable.

Joe_ Public

Varta wrote: »

Fair enough. I thought you were hoping for remain. I started out in 2016 hoping that they would vote remain and for quite a while after I hoped they might find a way to save themselves, but their behaviour since and everything that they have revealed about themselves makes want to see the back of them now.

Im torn tbh. Remainer by inclination but the UK (well England!) is seruliously split so in some ways leaving might just be the best way. But not with this rubbish deal and with no deal threat still very real. I cant believe ANY labour mp could get behind it tbh. Politics is a very strange place at the moment.

farmchoice

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Bercow has to allow it but think he will. I think there might be a vote but pm will have to seek extension regardless. Im not sure exactly how clear it is yet.

the problem with this or any amendment is that if the vote fails so does the amendment. so if the letwin amendment passes and the wa act then fails to pass the amendment is gone.

trellheim

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Voting for this deal will not get anything "sorted", it will just start 10 years of national humiliation in trade talks, with regular shouting and roaring by Brexiteers about treachery, bullying, WTO terms and GATT24.

It will allow Johnson to claim an historic victory in all the papers and perhaps win the next election. Unclear why any Labour MP would vote for that, but it has become evident that the HoC is not full of rocket scientists.

The lack of a level playing field in WA means that post transition, leopard will not change spots. There's a reason it was removed as it was what the ERG wanted and so they get to be complete yahoos with workers rights etc there is zero commitment on harmony or anything like that, its a talisman for them.

Tea Shock

Varta wrote: »

No. That's not true. You jumped in and made an error. Fine. Just let it go. And BTW the concept of a UI would be something totally new for most people in Britain.

Considering most Brexiteers have spent the last year accusing the Irish government of overtly trying to cause a UI, that is plainly untrue!

woohoo!!!

I'm not comfortable with the consent bit, as will continue the political uncertainty and polarisation for NI. I don't think the EU expect this to pass tomorrow and therefore an extension.

Juncker and Varadkar are I believe laying the groundwork for the terms to agreeing to extend. Namely that it will be the last one and there'll be no further scope to dither, make up your mind, we're moving on, with or without a deal.

Joe_ Public

farmchoice wrote: »

the problem with this or any endearment is that if the vote fails so does the amendment. so if the letwin amendment passes and the wa act then fails to pass the amendment is gone.

If vote fails he has to seek extension anyway so job done. Letwin amendment only concerns short extension anyway so not sure how truly significant it is in the long run.

GM228

Shelga wrote: »

Actually, this BBC article explains proceedings tomorrow quite well:

Brexit: What to expect from Parliament's Saturday sitting https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50095368

Basically, Letwin amendment will probably be selected, and if passed, could delay the vote on the actual WA for a few days, until the EU grant an extension.

That is a bit risky in and of itself, IMO- I’m sure many MPs will just want to get on and vote on Johnson’s deal without any more delays, whether they are for it or against. Also, Letwin amendment hands back control temporarily to the EU, does it not? It is contingent on them granting the extension.

Although, admittedly, using the word ‘control’ about any aspect of the UK in this process is laughable.

+1, it's a very short simple amendment, but with massive implications, it states:-

Line 3, leave out from "deal," to end and add "this House has considered the matter but withholds approval unless and until implementing legislation is passed"

In other words if passed the HoC can't lawfully approve the WA until the necessary legislation is passed, or simply put they can't vote on it tomorrow.

The whole voting process tomorrow isn't that simple though, see this thread which explains it:-

https://twitter.com/woodstockjag/status/1185157249217355777?s=19

This post outlines the text if it is passed:-

https://twitter.com/DomWalsh13/status/1185202755603980290?s=19

And it may pass:-

https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1185198305254531073?s=19

Zubeneschamali

So if I am following the ERG leaks correctly, their plan is pass the deal, run down the clock again, and then at the end of the transition period in 2020, they have no trade deal and are out with No Deal, apart from NI.

Amazing to see so-called Conservatives so determined to reduce trade and impoverish the UK.

10000maniacs

Varta wrote: »

He did not look thick. He was actually quite articulate and he was very clear about uniting Ireland. I think people on twitter rushed to join with the original poster without actually listening to the clip. 'Mansplaining' brought quite a few of them running.

He may be a bit of a clacker, and he was coming from an English Nationalism perspective, but he does raise an important point. The UK border thing in Ireland is a square peg in a round hole. The sooner everyone realises it is an out of date, illogical and artificial creation implemented by a huge James Craig led Unionist majority 100 years ago that has since dwindled to a minority, the sooner both Ireland and the UK can move on.

Shelga

10000maniacs wrote: »

He may be a bit of a clacker, and he was coming from an English Nationalism perspective, but he does raise an important point. The UK border thing in Ireland is a square peg in a round hole. The sooner everyone realises it is an out of date, illogical and artificial creation implemented by a huge James Craig led Unionist majority 100 years ago that has since dwindled to a minority, the sooner both Ireland and the UK can move on.

You make it sound simple. It’s incredibly complicated. Also, I don’t want it back. (Appreciate that it’s not up to me)

Tea Shock

Ian Blackford's amendment could be interesting

Reject the new Brexit deal and call for an extension until at least 31 January 2020 to allow for an early election

If selected, I don't know why all opposition party's (and some former and perhaps present Tory's) wouldn't support this at this stage!

Varta

Tea Shock wrote: »

Considering most Brexiteers have spent the last year accusing the Irish government of overtly trying to cause a UI, that is plainly untrue!

Most brexiters couldn't find Ireland on a map.

Are the ERG making a mess of it yet again? It seems they have let the cat out of the bag too soon by revealing their desire for a no deal exit should trade talks collapse by end of Dec 2020 even if the deal is passed tomorrow. By doing this its been suggested the 20 expelled Tories maybe getting cold feet about the deal as well as those Labour MPs thinking of backing it.


https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1185168263950557184?s=20

GM228

Tea Shock wrote: »

Ian Blackford's amendment could be interesting



If selected, I don't know why all opposition party's (and some former and perhaps present Tory's) wouldn't support this at this stage!

It could be called if there were signals MPs from other parties would back it, but for now it is only signed by SNP members. Even if it is called it is unlikely to get a majority and pass.

Professor Moriarty

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

So if I am following the ERG leaks correctly, their plan is pass the deal, run down the clock again, and then at the end of the transition period in 2020, they have no trade deal and are out with No Deal, apart from NI.

Amazing to see so-called Conservatives so determined to reduce trade and impoverish the UK.

Not when you consider that the Prime Minister is funded by disaster capitalists. A quick glance at some of the self-styled 'Spartans' will throw up similar associations. One Brexit Party MEP, Habib, has blatantly put aside 100 million to buy up property after Britain crashes out. And British people vote these people into office. They're getting the government and governance they deserve.

J Mysterio

Tea Shock wrote: »

Ian Blackford's amendment could be interesting

If selected, I don't know why all opposition party's (and some former and perhaps present Tory's) wouldn't support this at this stage!

I can't see how the Blackford Amendment is even an amendment? It implicitly rubbishes and voids the deal altogether.

Tea Shock

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

So if I am following the ERG leaks correctly, their plan is pass the deal, run down the clock again, and then at the end of the transition period in 2020, they have no trade deal and are out with No Deal, apart from NI.

Amazing to see so-called Conservatives so determined to reduce trade and impoverish the UK.

I think you can assume John Baron won't be getting any promotions from Johnson

https://twitter.com/peoplesvote_uk/status/1185160014421299200

GM228

This is well worth reading on the topic of the level playing field by comparing the old and new WA:-

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1185182594566111232?s=19

ToBeFrank123

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

The only conclusion that can be drawn is that they saw this as an opportunity to recreate the border that they despise the GFA for removing.

That definitely appears to be the long term goal and I also think they'd be quite happy with direct rule indefinitely. Its nice their bluff was called on that though and they are trying to reconvene Stormont for one or two issues.

The DUP have no interest in democracy. If they could go back to Gerrymandering and the like, they'd do it no problem.

BorneTobyWilde

Deal is worse than May's . Why didn't Labour support May's deal when it was keeping whole of UK in Customs Union

farmchoice

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Deal is worse than May's . Why didn't Labour support May's deal when it was keeping whole of UK in Customs Union

labour have set 6 tests that any deal must pass for them to support it.
the 6 tests are in effect impossible to ever meet in any deal, they unicorns++


so may's deal didn't meet them and this deal certainly doesn't and corbyn has stated that if he got the chance to negotiate a deal and if at the end of the day it didn't meet the 6 tests he would not support that one either.

Joe_ Public

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Deal is worse than May's . Why didn't Labour support May's deal when it was keeping whole of UK in Customs Union

Because labour wants permanent CU and close SM alignment and neither may deal nor this one gives it. They would have been voting to give tories a free hand in dictating future relationship so could not be bwhind it.

LeinsterDub

farmchoice wrote: »

labour have set 6 tests that any deal must pass for them to support it.
the 6 tests are in effect impossible to ever meet in any deal, they unicorns++


so may's deal didn't meet them and this deal certainly doesn't and corbyn has stated that if he got the chance to negotiate a deal and if at the end of the day it didn't meet the 6 tests he would not support that one either.

At their Unicorns result in the status quo . Not an economic car crash.

murphaph

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Not when you consider that the Prime Minister is funded by disaster capitalists. A quick glance at some of the self-styled 'Spartans' will throw up similar associations. One Brexit Party MEP, Habib, has blatantly put aside 100 million to buy up property after Britain crashes out. And British people vote these people into office. They're getting the government and governance they deserve.

From Twitter:

Tory strategy

"The forest was shrinking, but the trees kept voting for the Axe, for the Axe was clever and convinced the Trees that because his handle was made of wood, he was one of them."

Professor Moriarty

murphaph wrote: »

From Twitter:

Tory strategy

"The forest was shrinking, but the trees kept voting for the Axe, for the Axe was clever and convinced the Trees that because his handle was made of wood, he was one of them."

That's very clever and very accurate. Comes from a Greek fable.

ancapailldorcha

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

That's very clever and very accurate. Comes from a Greek fable.

It's one of Aesops, unsurprisingly.

farmchoice

LeinsterDub wrote: »

At their Unicorns result in the status quo . Not an economic car crash.

oh absoutly. corbyn is often derided for his brexit stance. commentators and journalists like to complain thats its terribly/hilariously complicated and contradictory.


its not, its slightly complicated and nuanced but it is perfectly logical.
if ever anything summed up the problem with the UK at present and their media in particular its an extraordinary inability or unwillingness to look beyond soundbites and catch-calls


''brexit means brexit'',''no deal is better than a bad deal'', ''just get it done'', even ''better off in''


they lap up that simplistic crap, give them something to think about and well....... you see what happens.

J Mysterio

lol, this is basically a red rag to a bull:

'Varadkar seeks to reassure DUP ahead of indicative vote in Commons on Brexit deal'

“The queen will still be the queen, the pound will still be the pound , people will still post letters in Royal Mail red letter boxes,” Mr Varadkar said in Brussels at the conclusion of the two-day summit of European leaders.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/pound-is-still-pound-queen-is-still-queen-taoiseach-tells-unionists-1.4055171?mode=amp

J Mysterio

The genius of gurning Dom Raab

https://twitter.com/OxfordDiplomat/status/1185178708816080897