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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,242 ✭✭✭✭A Dub in Glasgo


    Tea Shock wrote: »
    If selected, I don't know why all opposition party's (and some former and perhaps present Tory's) wouldn't support this at this stage!

    Will not pass, like all other SNP amendments irrespective of merit, simply because it is an SNP amendment


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,561 ✭✭✭Dymo


    J Mysterio wrote: »

    There are a number of UK politicians coming out of brexit as complete clowns and Raab has to be up there with these comments with his constant reiterating that the EU will crumble at the last minute and as his stint as Brexit Minister.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,379 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    Dymo wrote: »
    There are a number of UK politicians coming out of brexit as complete clowns and Raab has to be up there with these comments with his constant reiterating that the EU will crumble at the last minute and as his stint as Brexit Minister.

    It's what happens when a well-educated and intelligent man becomes consumed by hubris. He's delighted with the way he turned out.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,286 ✭✭✭✭BorneTobyWilde


    Because labour wants permanent CU and close SM alignment and neither may deal nor this one gives it. They would have been voting to give tories a free hand in dictating future relationship so could not be bwhind it.


    But if this passes they'll be living with the regret of not voting for May's soft Brexit.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,960 ✭✭✭✭Thargor




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,378 ✭✭✭✭LuckyLloyd


    Thargor wrote: »

    So what, let them go right ahead


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    But if this passes they'll be living with the regret of not voting for May's soft Brexit.

    I dont think mays brexit is very substantially different really, outside of NI changes. Labour wants a norway + style deal, their membership endorsed freedom of movement at last conference which is pretty much a remain position youd think. But they couldnt back any tory deal that just leads down road to deregulation, unions would rip them apart for a start.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,831 ✭✭✭RobMc59


    Dymo wrote: »
    There are a number of UK politicians coming out of brexit as complete clowns and Raab has to be up there with these comments with his constant reiterating that the EU will crumble at the last minute and as his stint as Brexit Minister.

    I have no time for the majority of the UK government and have always been against brexit but the EU have gone from a position of "that's the deal which is non negotiable"to making a u turn with regards to the backstop.
    I make this point as a remainer who is very disappointed the EU have in fact "blinked"which they said they would never do.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    RobMc59 wrote: »
    I have no time for the majority of the UK government and have always been against brexit but the EU have gone from a position of "that's the deal which is non negotiable"to making a u turn with regards to the backstop.
    I make this point as a remainer who is very disappointed the EU have in fact "blinked"which they said they would never do.

    True. But i think the strategy was a good one. They just merely went back to a position they were at 2 years ago, the major concessions were from uk side and blame game shifted back to uk as well. Pretty masterful stuff by any standards i'd say.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,745 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    Thargor wrote: »


    Sam Gyimah just stated the voting for the deal tomorrow doesn't stop this ride, it only intensifies it. The plan is for no-deal if the ERG are at the wheel.

    So if I am following the ERG leaks correctly, their plan is pass the deal, run down the clock again, and then at the end of the transition period in 2020, they have no trade deal and are out with No Deal, apart from NI.

    Amazing to see so-called Conservatives so determined to reduce trade and impoverish the UK.

    James Cleverly, a less apt surname if there ever was one (reason to follow), thinks that this strategy needs some serious mental gymnastics to arrive at.

    https://twitter.com/JamesCleverly/status/1185172811159146496?s=20

    The problem for Cleverly is that this plan was spelled out in front everyone.

    https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1185129387500421122?s=20

    Another MP thinking the people are stupid and should be treated as such. If Labour allows this vote to pass tomorrow then I would not be sad to see them lose more seats in the next election. I cannot see one reason why any Labour MP would vote for this deal, there are a lot of bad reasons but no good reason for a Labour MP to go anywhere near this deal.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 69,441 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    RobMc59 wrote: »
    I have no time for the majority of the UK government and have always been against brexit but the EU have gone from a position of "that's the deal which is non negotiable"to making a u turn with regards to the backstop.
    I make this point as a remainer who is very disappointed the EU have in fact "blinked"which they said they would never do.

    You too think the EU 'has crumbled'??? Hold on until I get you Sammy Wilson's number. :)


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 345 ✭✭Tea Shock


    Enzokk wrote: »
    Sam Gyimah just stated the voting for the deal tomorrow doesn't stop this ride, it only intensifies it. The plan is for no-deal if the ERG are at the wheel.




    James Cleverly, a less apt surname if there ever was one (reason to follow), thinks that this strategy needs some serious mental gymnastics to arrive at.

    https://twitter.com/JamesCleverly/status/1185172811159146496?s=20

    The problem for Cleverly is that this plan was spelled out in front everyone.

    https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1185129387500421122?s=20

    Another MP thinking the people are stupid and should be treated as such. If Labour allows this vote to pass tomorrow then I would not be sad to see them lose more seats in the next election. I cannot see one reason why any Labour MP would vote for this deal, there are a lot of bad reasons but no good reason for a Labour MP to go anywhere near this deal.

    While they can still go for no deal regardless of the result tomorrow (if it's even voted upon), this thing passing makes a Tory majority in the upcoming election more likely - that therefore makes no deal more likely.

    Conspicuous by its absence in mainstream media that I have seen today is any word at all about what John Baron said.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 345 ✭✭Tea Shock


    Breaking: Court of sessions have rejected the legal challenge to the agreement

    That was so expected, most media aren't bothered with that either


  • Registered Users Posts: 5 Christy Sweets


    It's what happens when a well-educated and intelligent man becomes consumed by hubris. He's delighted with the way he turned out.

    Raab may well be "well-educated", but I wouldn't call him intelligent.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,875 ✭✭✭CelticRambler


    RobMc59 wrote: »
    the EU have gone from a position of "that's the deal which is non negotiable"to making a u turn with regards to the backstop.
    I make this point as a remainer who is very disappointed the EU have in fact "blinked"which they said they would never do.

    That's not entirely fair: the original WA included the backstop only "unless and until alternative arrangements" could be put in place. This new-ish Northern Ireland Protocol is exactly that - an alternative arrangement, which can be put in place a lot sooner than originally intended.

    I happen to think it contains potentially fatal flaws (time will tell) and penalises the unionist community (but that is inevitable in any compromise due to their own irreconcilable demands) ... but when Johnson erased May's red line concerning the Irish Sea border, the EU was being entirely consistent in agreeing to revisit May's WA.

    When all is said and done, they've only re-written what? 10% of May's WA. That's not even a quarter turn, never mind a full 180° U! ;)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,922 ✭✭✭GM228




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,817 ✭✭✭✭Tell me how


    Dymo wrote: »
    There are a number of UK politicians coming out of brexit as complete clowns and Raab has to be up there with these comments with his constant reiterating that the EU will crumble at the last minute and as his stint as Brexit Minister.

    Closely followed by David Davis (Who has gotten very old looking recently) and Ian Duncan Smyth.

    Surely a massive influence on how we perceive politicians is the influence of modern day media.
    Twitter, in particular has been incredible throughout this, the speed at which comments, quotes and threads has appeared in to the public domain has never been seen before.

    I bet many of the states people we saw as being very strong in the past might have appeared differently under such scrutiny.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,035 ✭✭✭✭J Mysterio


    This idea that to get to No Deal, you accept the deal is baffling.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 69,441 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    That's not entirely fair: the original WA included the backstop only "unless and until alternative arrangements" could be put in place. This new-ish Northern Ireland Protocol is exactly that - an alternative arrangement, which can be put in place a lot sooner than originally intended.

    I happen to think it contains potentially fatal flaws (time will tell) and penalises the unionist community (but that is inevitable in any compromise due to their own irreconcilable demands) ... but when Johnson erased May's red line concerning the Irish Sea border, the EU was being entirely consistent in agreeing to revisit May's WA.

    When all is said and done, they've only re-written what? 10% of May's WA. That's not even a quarter turn, never mind a full 180° U! ;)

    I think the fact it points the spotlight directly at those who 'want' a hard border on the island is a piece of genius tbh.

    It was Varadkar that suggested it to Johnson at their Liverpool meet according to the Irish Times last night.

    It firmly puts responsibility into the hands of the people on this island, which is the genius part, there is no hiding behind Westminster, Dublin, the EU, The 'Union' or anything else. And it kicks in straight away.
    If you want a Hard Border you have to come out front and centre and campaign/or vote for it.

    Have at it, whoever wants to own that one.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,378 ✭✭✭✭LuckyLloyd


    J Mysterio wrote: »
    This idea that to get to No Deal, you accept the deal is baffling.

    Actually, it is a more mature position. In that scenario No Deal crashout does not have NI security implications. Also unicorns about maybe being able to leverage a further 18 months of prep and potential US trade interest.

    No Deal now is dangerous and indefensible.

    They’re still crazy and deluded and wrong but hey - fair to say it makes some sense all the same.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,339 ✭✭✭✭jimmycrackcorm


    humberklog wrote: »
    I was listening to Andrew Bridgen (Con. MP, Nth. Lcst. Little Englander, Farage Mole) on the BBC this morning espousing the great bright future for GB.
    He was talking up being master of their domain and now how they'll be able to compete with ireland re taxation and how he can't wait for the likes of FB, Amazon etc. to leave Ireland in their droves for the green and pleasant land of Blighty.

    Neighbourly sort of fella.

    Wouldn't it be nice if someone asked him how... Given that both Ireland and the UK are both currently in the EU, why amazon, fb et all aren't already doing that.

    Let alone pointing out that amazon just has a data centre here while having a huge sales presence and distribution in the UK.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 517 ✭✭✭Varta


    Another Labour Yes. Onn. I wonder if the DUP think it's going to pass will they jump onto the bandwagon?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,378 ✭✭✭✭LuckyLloyd


    Varta wrote: »
    Another Labour Yes. Onn. I wonder if the DUP think it's going to pass will they jump onto the bandwagon?

    They may abstain


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,310 ✭✭✭funkey_monkey


    Donaldson on Radio Ulster this evening was sounding a bit down. He confirmed that they will still be voting against it.
    I can't see them abstaining. They won't be abstaining. "We don't abstain on the union".


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,050 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    Donaldson on Radio Ulster this evening was sounding a bit down. He confirmed that they will still be voting against it.
    I can't see them abstaining. They won't be abstaining. "We don't abstain on the union".

    If the deal goes through tomorrow (and it may well do), this will be a disaster for the DUP.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,745 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    I don't know if a deal gets through tomorrow, but it will only get through with Labour votes. Nobody will care about the Tories voting for it, but Labour will get the blame. Some may say this would be fair for Corbyn's lackadaisical attitude towards Brexit and I think that would be fair criticism.

    It would be some kind of justice if Labour gets slaughtered by the Lib Dems at the polls because their MPs allowed Brexit to happen and because Corbyn seemed like he didn't care that much. We could see the Lib Dems a comfortable opposition in the next election as they will be the party to rejoin and it will give remainers a landing point and as the crises deepens, possible no-deal if no FTA reached by 2021, they will pick up even more votes.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,831 ✭✭✭RobMc59


    You too think the EU 'has crumbled'??? Hold on until I get you Sammy Wilson's number. :)

    Both sides have made concessions ,which is good if you want the UK to leave.
    If the EU had refused to budge as they have constantly said then the UK would have been faced with the prospect of no deal or revoke imo No one wanted a no deal crash out,it was just a threat used against the EU which appears to have worked.
    Does this deal really suit anyone?As a British person I'm disappointed and judging from the reaction on this forum the general Irish consensus is its disappointing.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,831 ✭✭✭RobMc59


    That's not entirely fair: the original WA included the backstop only "unless and until alternative arrangements" could be put in place. This new-ish Northern Ireland Protocol is exactly that - an alternative arrangement, which can be put in place a lot sooner than originally intended.

    I happen to think it contains potentially fatal flaws (time will tell) and penalises the unionist community (but that is inevitable in any compromise due to their own irreconcilable demands) ... but when Johnson erased May's red line concerning the Irish Sea border, the EU was being entirely consistent in agreeing to revisit May's WA.

    When all is said and done, they've only re-written what? 10% of May's WA. That's not even a quarter turn, never mind a full 180° U! ;)

    I don't care what the DUP think tbh,I had hoped the EU had pushed Johnson into a corner which would have led to his downfall,this deal allows him to remain in power which isn't good for anyone-imagine him and trump scheming together-it doesn't bear thinking about! :(


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,310 ✭✭✭funkey_monkey


    Strazdas wrote: »
    If the deal goes through tomorrow (and it may well do), this will be a disaster for the DUP.

    Lord Kilcooney was on Radio Ulster Talkback at lunchtime and pointed out that this was the first step to a United Ireland as over time the NI companies will find trading with EU easier than into GB and vice versa. Hence gradual alignment within the island and over time unification becomes more likely. He also made a point about VAT issues (can't remember the issue but I think it was if GB lowered its rate to below EU rate, then NI companies would be disadvantaged.

    Interestingly, an economist who spoke next agreed with his analysis of the deal.

    Initially my opinion on Mays deal was that it was the best of both worlds and would encourage the swing voters to choose the union over reunification. However, this new deal does not appear to some to be equivalent in this regard.

    Lord C @ 35:50, but interesting from start :)
    Economist @ 44:30
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0009cz0

    Not sure his point about the customs officials.
    On his point on VAT I thought NI companies applied for a rebate to the UK gov if the EU VAT rate is greater than the GB VAT rate? And the other way?


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 517 ✭✭✭Varta


    RobMc59 wrote: »
    Both sides have made concessions ,which is good if you want the UK to leave.
    If the EU had refused to budge as they have constantly said then the UK would have been faced with the prospect of no deal or revoke imo No one wanted a no deal crash out,it was just a threat used against the EU which appears to have worked.
    Does this deal really suit anyone?As a British person I'm disappointed and judging from the reaction on this forum the general Irish consensus is its disappointing.

    But that would have been the EU interfering in UK affairs and not on.


This discussion has been closed.
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