Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

FrancieBrady

RobMc59 wrote: »

Both sides have made concessions ,which is good if you want the UK to leave.
If the EU had refused to budge as they have constantly said then the UK would have been faced with the prospect of no deal or revoke imo No one wanted a no deal crash out,it was just a threat used against the EU which appears to have worked.
Does this deal really suit anyone?As a British person I'm disappointed and judging from the reaction on this forum the general Irish consensus is its disappointing.

The EU only said they would not reopen negotiation unless (important word) substantive alternatives were presented.

They were and it turns out (according to Irish Times) that it was Ireland who threw Boris the lifeline on Northern Ireland

Varta

Enzokk wrote: »

I don't know if a deal gets through tomorrow, but it will only get through with Labour votes. Nobody will care about the Tories voting for it, but Labour will get the blame. Some may say this would be fair for Corbyn's lackadaisical attitude towards Brexit and I think that would be fair criticism.

It would be some kind of justice if Labour gets slaughtered by the Lib Dems at the polls because their MPs allowed Brexit to happen and because Corbyn seemed like he didn't care that much. We could see the Lib Dems a comfortable opposition in the next election as they will be the party to rejoin and it will give remainers a landing point and as the crises deepens, possible no-deal if no FTA reached by 2021, they will pick up even more votes.

Labour needs an upheaval. Corbyn and his followers are dinosaurs, there is no place for them in the 21st century. The working class would be better represented if labour were to come out of the 1970s. I don't believe the Lib Dems will increase that much and in the election following the next one, providing Labour has sorted itself out, the Lib Dems will just about disappear.

road_high

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

They may abstain

They won’t abstain- they’re petty and vindictive and bitter to the core. Great to see BoJo completely bypassing them now - hugely damages any lingering goodwill and makes the DUP irrelevant going forward with very few allies. All political capital up in smoke and all self inflicted

Water John

Philip Hammond is spooked by those Brexiteers who are saying it's a way to a No Deal next year. He won't support it ATM. This could mean a number of the Ex Tories baulking.

GM228

Latest Brexit election map shows a 5 vote lead:-

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1185241744625098752?s=19

devnull

GM228 wrote: »

Latest Brexit election map shows a 5 vote lead:-

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1185241744625098752?s=19

That looks a bit optimistic to me in terms of who is judged to be doing what.

A good number of those who are undecided I can't see voting for anything other than against, and once you factor that in then they're losing.

RobMc59

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The EU only said they would not reopen negotiation unless (important word) substantive alternatives were presented.

They were and it turns out (according to Irish Times) that it was Ireland who threw Boris the lifeline on Northern Ireland

I agree that when the chips were down Ireland helped the UK out of the hole they had dug for themselves.If the UK leaves I would much rather it was on friendly terms with Ireland who are Britain's closest friend(which the UK government could see if they removed the scales from their eyes!)

10000maniacs

GM228 wrote: »

Latest Brexit election map shows a 5 vote lead:-

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1185241744625098752?s=19

Johnson still has a lot of persuading to do to get 320 votes. I would guess he will be 20-30 short.

Joe_ Public

Those voting breakdowns all show Philip Lee voting for a deal even though hes a Lib Dem mp. How can he be voting yes? I cant believe thats right, theyd surely never have let him join party as a brexit backer.

Imreoir2

RobMc59 wrote: »

Both sides have made concessions ,which is good if you want the UK to leave.
If the EU had refused to budge as they have constantly said then the UK would have been faced with the prospect of no deal or revoke imo No one wanted a no deal crash out,it was just a threat used against the EU which appears to have worked.
Does this deal really suit anyone?As a British person I'm disappointed and judging from the reaction on this forum the general Irish consensus is its disappointing.

This assumes the EU were interested in forcing the UK to stay, I don't think the EU wants the UK to stay at this point, least of all a UK full of resentment over EU strongarming.

Headshot

I found this for the timeline tomorrow and what Amendments are up for motion

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-50095368

Going to be fascinating to see what Amendments Bercow picks

CelticRambler

RobMc59 wrote: »

I had hoped the EU had pushed Johnson into a corner which would have led to his downfall,this deal allows him to remain in power which isn't good for anyone

But the EU did push him into a corner (well, more like he backed himself into it). But, to switch metaphors, like any animal trapped in a snare, he had no choice but to chew his leg off - NI/DUP being the metaphorical leg. Remember, this is the guy who went to their conference only last month, and in front of an adoring crowd, promised everything he's just signed away.

You'll just have to hope that this is his "Ukraine-gate" moment, and he'll follow Trump down the spiral of unelectability (the UK media has skimmed over just about all the madness of King Donald of the last week. 8-minute recap here )

FrancieBrady

RobMc59 wrote: »

I agree that when the chips were down Ireland helped the UK out of the hole they had dug for themselves.If the UK leaves I would much rather it was on friendly terms with Ireland who are Britain's closest friend(which the UK government could see if they removed the scales from their eyes!)

Maybe if the language changed and we had a humbler approach from the UK, they could stay 'friends' with everyone.

Language like the 'EU refusing to budge' etc, when the facts are they budged several times.

theological

RobMc59 wrote: »

Both sides have made concessions ,which is good if you want the UK to leave.
If the EU had refused to budge as they have constantly said then the UK would have been faced with the prospect of no deal or revoke imo No one wanted a no deal crash out,it was just a threat used against the EU which appears to have worked.
Does this deal really suit anyone?As a British person I'm disappointed and judging from the reaction on this forum the general Irish consensus is its disappointing.

This is a good compromise. It provides democratic input from Northern Ireland into their own destiny. It allows for the UK to have a looser relationship with the European Union, and it allows for the UK to take control of its own trade policy and borders.

I'm an Irish person who thinks this is a good deal which should go through tomorrow if parliament has any sense. We've had 3 years of this dragging on, time to get it finished.

RobMc59 wrote: »

I don't care what the DUP think tbh,I had hoped the EU had pushed Johnson into a corner which would have led to his downfall,this deal allows him to remain in power which isn't good for anyone-imagine him and trump scheming together-it doesn't bear thinking about!

This deal ultimately isn't about Johnson or the DUP. It is about Britain's future, Ireland's future and the future of the EU.

Corbyn doesn't oppose this deal because he could do better. He opposes it because he wants to get into government. A self serving reason, not for the national interest. In this article I linked to already, it says basically as much.

“If Boris Johnson can go into an election as the man who delivered Brexit, we will be in serious trouble. It will be the Tories, not supportive Labour MPs, that reap the electoral rewards of any such deal. They will in effect be signing up to their own political demise.

A number of Labour MP's will defy him. Probably in Leave constituencies like Gloria De Piero, Sarah Chapman, and Caroline Flint, plus Labour Brexiteers.

Mech1

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

That's very clever and very accurate. Comes from a Greek fable.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Woodcutter_and_the_Trees

A Man came into a forest, and made a petition to the Trees to provide him a handle for his axe.

The Trees consented to his request, and gave him a young ash-tree.

No sooner had the man fitted from it a new handle to his axe, than he began to use it, and quickly felled with his strokes the noblest giants of the forest.

An old oak, lamenting when too late the destruction of his companions, said to a neighboring cedar:

"The first step has lost us all. If we had not given up the rights of the ash, we might yet have retained our own privileges and have stood for ages."

J Mysterio

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

They may abstain

Sammy was insisting they would vote against.

road_high

RobMc59 wrote: »

I agree that when the chips were down Ireland helped the UK out of the hole they had dug for themselves.If the UK leaves I would much rather it was on friendly terms with Ireland who are Britain's closest friend(which the UK government could see if they removed the scales from their eyes!)

The Irish are far better friends to the UK and English than those deluded idiots north of the border in the DUP. I think the major diplomatic offensive of the past few weeks went a long way to ensuring GB support of the Irish position re hard border etc.
BoJo and co are only human too and will respond to reasonable discussions and mutually beneficial arrangements rather than the constant No No No sour pusses the DUP push out. Even Rees Mogg appears to have grown weary of them.

Professor Moriarty

Whatever happened to all of those ERG MPs who said they would follow the DUP's lead? It's almost as if they were just using the DUP as cover.

road_high

J Mysterio wrote: »

Sammy was insisting they would vote against.

I hope they do- it will pour petrol on and set a match to any morsel of political capital capital and goodwill the Dinosaurs thought they might have had in Westminister. Brexiters in England want Brexit far far more than they want these spongers hanging like nooses around the UK's neck.

Strazdas

road_high wrote: »

The Irish are far better friends to the UK and English than those deluded idiots north of the border in the DUP. I think the major diplomatic offensive of the past few weeks went a long way to ensuring GB support of the Irish position re hard border etc.
BoJo and co are only human too and will respond to reasonable discussions and mutually beneficial arrangements rather than the constant No No No sour pusses the DUP push out. Even Rees Mogg appears to have grown weary of them.

Several journalists have said the relationship between Johnson and Varadkar is surprisingly good (and this had not been anticipated).

road_high

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Whatever happened to all of those ERG MPs who said they would follow the DUP's lead? It's almost as if they were just using the DUP as cover.

Well Rees Mogg was speaking earlier proclaiming what an excellent deal this for the North in particular- so when the hardest of hard brexiters is saying that then you know you're goosed.

Professor Moriarty

road_high wrote: »

Well Rees Mogg was speaking earlier proclaiming what an excellent deal this for the North in particular- so when the hardest of hard brexiters is saying that then you know you're goosed.

Yes. They are friendless now.

J Mysterio

road_high wrote: »

I hope they do- it will pour petrol on and set a match to any morsel of political capital capital and goodwill the Dinosaurs thought they might have had in Westminister. Brexiters in England want Brexit far far more than they want these spongers hanging like nooses around the UK's neck.

I would hope they abstain personally.

I know this is not a good deal for the UK, but it seems alright for Ireland on balance, and I want some forward momentum to a resolution at this point. Once the arrangements RE Ireland are in place, the UK can do what they want - spend 10 years in trade negotiations/ come crawling back/ whatever.

road_high

Strazdas wrote: »

Several journalists have said the relationship between Johnson and Varadkar is surprisingly good (and this had not been anticipated).

It's obvious on TV- the relationship is warm, friendly, calm- almost like old friends. A lot more relaxed than with T May.
This is how business is done- not by insulting and ignoring one another. Reynolds and Major, Ahern and Blair all had good relationships and things got done.
I wasn't very favourable towards BoJo either but starting to quite like his charm now. He comes across as really quite personable. It pays to be likeable in politics.

Kermit.de.frog

Leo Varadkar reassures the unionist people that they will be allowed post their letters in red letter boxes.


https://twitter.com/BBCNewsNI/status/1185204120946462724


Nigel Dodds issued an ENTIRE statement! (no really, he did) :eek:

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1185202527895261189

road_high

J Mysterio wrote: »

I would hope they abstain personally.

I know this is not a good deal for the UK, but it seems alright for Ireland on balance, and I want some forward momentum to a resolution at this point. Once the arrangements RE Ireland are in place, the UK can do what they want - spend 10 years in trade negotiations/ come crawling back/ whatever.

Yes I agree with you- ideally would like to see the DUP vote against this and it gets carried in spite of them- petty I know but they really deserve it at this stage- That would be the ultimate knife in the stomach for them.

CelticRambler

funkey_monkey wrote: »

Lord Kilcooney was on Radio Ulster Talkback at lunchtime and pointed out that this was the first step to a United Ireland as over time the NI companies will find trading with EU easier than into GB and vice versa. Hence gradual alignment within the island and over time unification becomes more likely. He also made a point about VAT issues (can't remember the issue but I think it was if GB lowered its rate to below EU rate, then NI companies would be disadvantaged.

Interestingly, an economist who spoke next agreed with his analysis of the deal.

<snip>

On his point on VAT I thought NI companies applied for a rebate to the UK gov if the EU VAT rate is greater than the GB VAT rate? And the other way?

Glad to see some people with "weight" behind them see things the same way I described on here last night. There's very little in this duality that is economically advantageous for NI, and even less that strengthens the Union - or even maintains the current relationship.

Rebates can be applied for, but it's one more reason not to do business with the territory. Not when there are other options.

FrancieBrady

road_high wrote: »

Yes I agree with you- ideally would like to see the DUP vote against this and it gets carried in spite of them- petty I know but they really deserve it at this stage- That would be the ultimate knife in the stomach for them.

If it fails they will be trumpeting that it is because the UK cares about the 'Union' with them, when it will in fact be about other political jockeying altogether.

This will be the 4th? time a PM has attempted to sell them out for their own expediency.

road_high

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Leo Varadkar reassures the unionist people that they will be allowed post their letters in red letter boxes.


https://twitter.com/BBCNewsNI/status/1185204120946462724


Nigel Dodds issued an ENTIRE statement! (no really, he did) :eek:

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1185202527895261189

Wonder was Leo just stirring the pot with them now?
Red post boxes. Sweet jesus. But for how long? Royal Mail could decide to abandon the place. Still very old ER ones around Kilkenny ....painted green

FrancieBrady

road_high wrote: »

Wonder was Leo just stirring the pot with them now?
Red post boxes. Sweet jesus. But for how long? Royal Mail could decide to abandon the place. Still very old ER ones around Kilkenny ....painted green

It was like saying the 'sky will still be blue tomorrow' or 'the sun will still rise tomorrow'.
Dodds just took it literally to have a rant. Sanctimonious old nonsense.