Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Mr.Nice Guy

Seems there won't be the big vote tomorrow, provided Bercow allows the Letwin amendment?

https://twitter.com/GuardianHeather/status/1185193150433943552

https://twitter.com/jonworth/status/1185203110404333568

https://twitter.com/jonworth/status/1185293037779464194

A pity if true as I was looking forward to a dramatic 'Super Saturday', but this makes it sound more like damp squib Saturday.

At least I'd be able to watch the rugby without having to keep switching channels.

J Mysterio

Id be surprised if Bercow wouldn't facilitate a vote on the deal tomorrow. They will vote.

Water John

They can have the Letwin vote and if he wins, they can still hold a substantive vote on the main issue. However, it would be indicative and not binding.
Johnson may do that if he thought he had the numbers.

Frank Bullitt

https://twitter.com/dempster7/status/1185297459137990656

This sounds worrying.

Enzokk

I would be extremely nervous of Johnson trying to ram this through and the ERG supporting basically a deal they couldn't under May. It seems the best option for Remain MPs is to pass the Letwin amendment and then have the time to scrutinize the deal and make changes to the legislation as well. I suspect if they are able to rule out no-deal at the end of the transition the ERG support falls away and suddenly they will find their patriotic love for the Union return and vote with the ERG which dooms the deal either way.

https://twitter.com/Sime0nStylites/status/1185233325864214528?s=20

https://twitter.com/Sime0nStylites/status/1185233683923513345?s=20

https://twitter.com/Sime0nStylites/status/1185234109871939586?s=20

https://twitter.com/Sime0nStylites/status/1185234273797885952?s=20

https://twitter.com/Sime0nStylites/status/1185234337454841856?s=20

Indestructable

What will the EU make of the UK coming back looking for an extension without even having the vote on the deal? I think it's a bit absurd tbh, plenty in the EU have reservations about an extension anyway. Will it be seen as more bollocksology by the UK?

devnull

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

The thread by Faisal Islam is the reason Labour should be whipping and voting against this deal

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1185182594566111232

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1185182594566111232.html

That's shocking, it makes it very clear who this deal is looking after and it's not the average person on the streets in the UK.

It almost makes Theresa May's deal look good, in fact it is good in comparison.

Enzokk

Indestructable wrote: »

What will the EU make of the UK coming back looking for an extension without even having the vote on the deal? I think it's a bit absurd tbh, plenty in the EU have reservations about an extension anyway. Will it be seen as more bollocksology by the UK?

Juncker said it, the 48% were right. The EU would open the UK back with open arms to end this madness, but they will not be used to facilitate no-deal. Once it becomes clear that a government is in charge that would look at revoking article 50 you would see the EU work with the UK government to ensure they have the time and space to make it happen.

So with that in mind, asking for an extension means Johnson doesn't have the votes to pass the deal so there will most likely be a election and who knows what happens after that. The EU will not turn its back on its own citizens in the UK or those that voted remain.

Joe_ Public

Isnt the idea of the letwin amendment that extra time would be needed to frame required legislation so eu almost certainly be on board for it. Its not intended as a vehicle to stop brexit in any way.

Mr.Nice Guy

Nicholas Watt on Newsnight says Mark Francois revealed minutes ago he will back the deal.

hometruths

Oliver Letwin says his amendment forcing an extension request before the vote is purely to ensure that the UK do not fall out of the EU by accident whilst they are trying to pass the legislation required should Johnson's deal pass.

Meanwhile Johnson seems to be making a few friends in the EU who might want to help him get this over the line. It could pan out like this:

The Letwin amendment passes, and Johnson immediately, i.e within minutes requests the extension, writing a letter asking for it saying "Sorry for wasting your time with agreeing a deal, now not going ahead with that vote, I need to request an extension, and the only good reason I can give you for it is that MPs backed Oliver Letwin's amendment."

The EU reply immediately, within minutes, saying "This has gone on long enough, we have told you time and time again, we need a good reason to agree the extension, and the only reason we will agree an extension is if you need time to sort out up the necessary legislation. So go ahead and have the vote and if it passes we will grant an extension to make sure you have plenty of time to take care of legislation. That ought to reassure Letwin and those who voted for his amendment. But, if the WA vote does not pass, you'll have to ask for another extension and we cannot guarantee anything."

Johnson says "Great, we'll crack on with vote. And fellow MPs before you vote, bear in mind that I have already complied with the Benn Act and requested an extension.

Don't see how any of above could a) frustrate Letwin or b) contravene the Benn Act.

briany

Indestructable wrote: »

What will the EU make of the UK coming back looking for an extension without even having the vote on the deal?

Good question. I don't particularly want to see the UK leave the EU, but if they did, I'd settle for a reasonable deal and compromise. There are, of course, those within Leave who don't want to compromise and take the UK out of the EU totally clean, but there are those within Remain who could end up bringing about the same result due to insisting on more scrutiny, resulting in more deadlock, and more delay, and, most crucially, EU patience running out.

Not that scrutiny is unimportant, but you do have to wonder at some point if the deal is as good as it gets. Continuing to play cards beyond that point could lead to much trouble.

prawnsambo

Gintonious wrote: »

https://twitter.com/dempster7/status/1185297459137990656

This sounds worrying.

It sounds like they've decided that there was some sort of fear factor that encourage Johnson to go with the current deal and they're trying to generate a bit of their own. We'll see how popular this is.

SeaBreezes

Indestructable wrote: »

What will the EU make of the UK coming back looking for an extension without even having the vote on the deal? I think it's a bit absurd tbh, plenty in the EU have reservations about an extension anyway. Will it be seen as more bollocksology by the UK?

I imagine they are expecting it. Time is too short to examine the contract in detail.
They don't have to say yes though, and maybe one of the 27!has been asked to say no by the UK?

Junkyard Tom

Somehow I doubt this will be the Ulster Workers' Council strike 2.0



twitter.com/dempster7

MPFGLB

I live in London and work as a contractor in the public sector
I voted Remain and I have argued for Remain for the last 3 years. Its not just a financial decision although the financial argument to Remain is for me and from several reports including many from this government the more sound in both the short and long term

My view has always been one of being better within the EU for reasons of security, trade,regulations, and as a unit to stand together to aid the development of the region and in defense against the power of China, Russian& USA

I guess I am one of those metropolitan elites that Brexiters and half the BBC journalists are always going on about
Except I am not...I have a large mortgage, very high living costs and dropping income for the last 7 years

Now I am hoping this deal gets through .. so we avoid a no deal

But also I and many colleagues are waiting for this government to invest in public services...which they are not doing as they hold all spending on hold in case its needed to shore up a no deal Brexit
It almost impossible to get any work at the moment ...and I am not the only one

I think the deal may go through as alot of MPs are so sick of it and want to move on

I think its a dreadful deal as it leaves to UK in a worse position than it was ..aligned to EU rules and regulations and not 'free' to make their own rules as the Brexiters wanted and with no bargaining power when the flesh is put on the bones

But having said all that I wont be surprised if it passes becasue of fear of no deal and a continuation of the extension process

Indestructable

Thanks for the responses everyone, as always this thread is a wealth of knowledge. It's a bit messy, but it does make sense.

Enzokk

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Isnt the idea of the letwin amendment that extra time would be needed to frame required legislation so eu almost certainly be on board for it. Its not intended as a vehicle to stop brexit in any way.

True, but extra scrutiny will bear the plans of Johnson in the transition period and if he has promised the ERG no-deal to get their votes he loses the Labour MPs and the Tory rebels. On the other hand if he promises an extension to avoid no-deal he loses the ERG.

kingbhome

Gintonious wrote: »

https://twitter.com/dempster7/status/1185297459137990656

This sounds worrying.

All jokes aside on that page, some poor Catholics will be getting slayed history shows us this

Strazdas

Gintonious wrote: »

https://twitter.com/dempster7/status/1185297459137990656

This sounds worrying.

Civil disobedience doesn't mean violence though : more likely to be street demos, sit ins, blockades etc (if it ever comes to pass).

briany

Stacksofwacks wrote: »

They wanted Brexit, now they are getting it.

I don't think they want Brexit so much as they want to maintain a place in the UK, and see that be undiluted.

It's not as if if the UK had voted to Remain, they'd still be out there campaigning for Leave. Of all the political groups, they would have by far gotten over it the easiest.

ancapailldorcha

Mod: Serious discussion only please.

Junkyard Tom

kingbhome wrote: »

All jokes aside on that page, some poor Catholics will be getting slayed history shows us this

Let's hope not.

votecounts

Gintonious wrote: »

https://twitter.com/dempster7/status/1185297459137990656

This sounds worrying.

If only there was a Police Force to prevent this sort of behaviour, I hope they hit them as hard as they would do if this was a protest by nationalists, even a few arrests of some unionist politicians for inciting hatred wouldn't go a miss.

GM228

Water John wrote: »

They can have the Letwin vote and if he wins, they can still hold a substantive vote on the main issue. However, it would be indicative and not binding.
Johnson may do that if he thought he had the numbers.

From the man himself:-

https://twitter.com/oletwinofficial/status/1185238071735996416?s=19

They obviously see the vote on weather to adopt the amended motion as a resolution as an informal proxy for a meaningful vote.

prawnsambo

Enzokk wrote: »

True, but extra scrutiny will bear the plans of Johnson in the transition period and if he has promised the ERG no-deal to get their votes he loses the Labour MPs and the Tory rebels. On the other hand if he promises an extension to avoid no-deal he loses the ERG.

It's not just the scrutiny. Johnson had everyone up to high doh fearing a hard brexit and as soon as he came back with a deal, their relief would translate into votes for it. Provided he struck while the iron was hot. And he almost made it. Now? I think the momentum will ease off as the days go by and there will be nit-picking and amendments and every thing the opposition can throw at him while he bleeds votes and support, as those unaccustomed to thinking have the finer points explained to them in picture form.



TL:DR: He needed to fool all of the people for some of the time and now he's got to fool them for all of the time. Not sure that will work.

hotmail.com

Issue with Loyalists protesting against the deal as this will contradict their support for Brexit.

Frank Bullitt

https://twitter.com/ali_mcconnell/status/1184884717369397249

We all owe a lot to Tony.

Indestructable

Another point, I follow this thread religiously and everyone who does will be well clued in to the going ons in the Brexit world. Maybe 20 percent of the population here and in the UK know what is going on inside out, to the other 80 percent they turn off the news or the radio at the mention of the word Brexit.

Now, the 80 percent were probably delighted to hear the deal was agreed this week and said thank fu*k for that, it's nearly over (the end of the beginning, at least). Tomorrow, with the passing of the Letwin amendment it drags on for probably another 3 months. Generally, people do not want this to happen. They are so so fed up of it all by now.

I'd imagine the vast majority in the UK will not have a Scooby Doo what the Letwin amendment is this evening or how it affects the vote tomorrow.

GM228

Indestructable wrote: »

Another point, I follow this thread religiously and everyone who does will be well clued in to the going ons in the Brexit world. Maybe 20 percent of the population here and in the UK know what is going on inside out, to the other 80 percent they turn off the news or the radio at the mention of the word Brexit.

Now, the 80 percent were probably delighted to hear the deal was agreed this week and said thank fu*k for that, it's nearly over (the end of the beginning, at least). Tomorrow, with the passing of the Letwin amendment it drags on for probably another 3 months. Generally, people do not want this to happen. They are so so fed up of it all by now.

I'd imagine the vast majority in the UK will not have a Scooby Doo what the Letwin amendment is this evening or how it affects the vote tomorrow.

Or perhaps the 80 percent do keep on the news and radio or read the papers and believe the usual rubbish misleading headlines put out there about Brexit that couldn't be further than reality.