Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Kermit.de.frog

When you think about this deal it has arguably a greater psychological and practical impact on unionism than the Anglo Irish Agreement in my opinion. A customs border down the Irish sea, much more fundamental divergence of regulations and standards between NI/GB.

It's a big moment if the deal passes in terms of the future direction of this island.

As Tony said himself - "we are in extraordinary times".

Joe_ Public

I dont know is letwin tied in in any way to the benn bill. Benn didnt take into account what would happen in event of deal passing which was an omission. Hence letwin. But this wouldnt reqiure 3 months so not clear if that is what they would be seeking.

road_high

Strazdas wrote: »

Civil disobedience doesn't mean violence though : more likely to be street demos, sit ins, blockades etc (if it ever comes to pass).

Like the failed ones in the mid 80s?

Junkyard Tom

votecounts wrote: »

If only there was a Police Force to prevent this sort of behaviour, I hope they hit them as hard as they would do if this was a protest by nationalists, even a few arrests of some unionist politicians for inciting hatred wouldn't go a miss.

Going in hard against people in the north has never worked. Just let any protests fizzle out as they inevitably will. They're not even sure who their protests are aimed at.

GM228

Potential Darwin Tweet of the week?

https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1185205582745296896?s=19

Promoting the UK leaving the SM by pointing out the......em, benefits of staying in the SM for NI.

Joe_ Public

Indestructable wrote: »

Another point, I follow this thread religiously and everyone who does will be well clued in to the going ons in the Brexit world. Maybe 20 percent of the population here and in the UK know what is going on inside out, to the other 80 percent they turn off the news or the radio at the mention of the word Brexit.

Now, the 80 percent were probably delighted to hear the deal was agreed this week and said thank fu*k for that, it's nearly over (the end of the beginning, at least). Tomorrow, with the passing of the Letwin amendment it drags on for probably another 3 months. Generally, people do not want this to happen. They are so so fed up of it all by now.

I'd imagine the vast majority in the UK will not have a Scooby Doo what the Letwin amendment is this evening or how it affects the vote tomorrow.

Wait till we get to next summer when the first yes or no to triggering extension of fta negotiations comes into play and it all starts up again and at regular intervals thereafter for, who knows, 5, 6, 7 years...

Edit: thats assuming theyve actually left in the first place!

McMurphy

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Somehow I doubt this will be the Ulster Workers' Council strike 2.0



twitter.com/dempster7

So the loyalists are remainers now, yeah?

Strazdas

Indestructable wrote: »

Another point, I follow this thread religiously and everyone who does will be well clued in to the going ons in the Brexit world. Maybe 20 percent of the population here and in the UK know what is going on inside out, to the other 80 percent they turn off the news or the radio at the mention of the word Brexit.

Now, the 80 percent were probably delighted to hear the deal was agreed this week and said thank fu*k for that, it's nearly over (the end of the beginning, at least). Tomorrow, with the passing of the Letwin amendment it drags on for probably another 3 months. Generally, people do not want this to happen. They are so so fed up of it all by now.

I'd imagine the vast majority in the UK will not have a Scooby Doo what the Letwin amendment is this evening or how it affects the vote tomorrow.

Most economists think the deal is a terrible one for GB and will impact on them severely. The British public are oblivious to this of course (they seem oblivious to just about everything at this point....their non existent media being a factor).

Kermit.de.frog

Jon Tonge: Boris Johnson's Brexit deal is biggest ever shift to a united Ireland

Tomorrow is potentially one of the most momentous days in unionist political history. A vote in favour of Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal will fundamentally reshape Northern Ireland’s place in the UK, in economic terms at least.

The Northern Irish economy will be, in terms of rules at least, as closely aligned to the rest of Ireland and the EU.

A border poll would at some point follow to seek constitutional as well as economic unification. However, a vote against the Prime Minister’s deal may mean that Brexit might never happen — to the relief, ironically, of those who until this week may have been unionist Brexiteers.

Lead story on Belfast Telegraph website tonight

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/news-analysis/jon-tonge-boris-johnsons-brexit-deal-is-biggest-ever-shift-to-a-united-ireland-38609795.html

Joe_ Public

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

So the loyalists are remainers now, yeah?

I think they might actually be though theyd never admit it.

Junkyard Tom

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

So the loyalists are remainers now, yeah?

Yer man Jamie Whatisface has tweeted that remaining is preferable to the current deal.

MPFGLB

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I think they might actually be though theyd never admit it.

I being writing for over 3 years that the only sensible stand point for any NI politician is as a Remainer

The majority of NI voted to remain but also leaving the EU was never an option that did not include some sort of border between NI & Republic or NI and British mainland

Only the most idiotic and reprehensible NI politician would align themselves to a Brexiter government in Westminster

The DUP really are the worst of the worst ...and that is saying something

hotmail.com

From day one, there should have been cross community protests against Brexit in the North.

It's too late for Loyalists to get involved, the deal looks likely to pass. The protests will fizzle out like the Flag fiasco.

hotmail.com

MPFGLB wrote: »

I being writing for over 3 years that the only sensible stand point for any NI politician is as a Remainer

The majority of NI voted to remain but also leaving the EU was never an option that did not include some sort of border between NI & Republic or NI and British mainland

Only the most idiotic and reprehensible NI politician would align themselves to a Brexiter government in Westminster

The DUP really are the worst of the worst ...and that is saying something

I think had the DUP took a Remain stance, the remain vote would have been larger in 2016 in the North.

Joe_ Public

MPFGLB wrote: »

I being writing for over 3 years that the only sensible stand point for any NI politician is as a Remainer

The majority of NI voted to remain but also leaving the EU was never an option that did not include some sort of border between NI & Republic or NI and British mainland

Only the most idiotic and reprehensible NI politician would align themselves to a Brexiter government in Westminster

The DUP really are the worst of the worst ...and that is saying something

As was written here recently the dup gonna dup. I think one of the unfortunate confluences of the brexit saga was to happen at a time when the dup got this incredible and completely disproportionate influence in the hoc. Only shenanigans could come of that and while folk now write them off they still can get johnson beaten so theyre not done yet.

FrancieBrady

Joe_ Public wrote: »

As was written here recently the dup gonna dup. I think one of the unfortunate confluences of the brexit saga was to happen at a time when the dup got this incredible and completely disproportionate influence in the hoc. Only shenanigans could come of that and while folk now write them off they still can get johnson beaten so theyre not done yet.

The only thing the DUP have left after Boris spelt out clearly what they were to the 'union' is to be useful fools/tools for what somebody else wants. At the moment it seems the ERG doesn't even want them.

The high horse brigade

Yes looks like all the DUP wanted was to use the influence they felt they had to try force a border in Ireland

Joe_ Public

The high horse brigade wrote: »

Yes looks like all the DUP wanted was to use the influence they felt they had to try force a border in Ireland

Yes, thats what it was about and now they see that not a viable option ever so the status quo of remain got to be next best thing. They still got critical 10 votes so very interesting to see how that might swing things down the line. Wonder too whether Kate Hoey might stay with them and actually vote with her party this time for once!

ArmaniJeanss

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Yes, thats what it was about and now they see that not a viable option ever so the status quo of remain got to be next best thing. They still got critical 10 votes so very interesting to see how that might swing things down the line. Wonder too whether Kate Hoey might stay with them and actually vote with her party this time for once!

Yeah, Hoey has announced herself as a No Vote. I don't think its a surprise though as she voted against Mays deal as well, despite voting Tory on seemingly everything else.
So its not a bonus vote on the count or anything.

Would be good to get one or two people who voted yes previously to announce no, just to turn the tide a little.

Joe_ Public

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Yeah, Hoey has announced herself as a No Vote. I don't think its a surprise though as she voted against Mays deal as well, despite voting Tory on seemingly everything else.
So its not a bonus vote on the count or anything.

Would be good to get one or two people who voted yes previously to announce no, just to turn the tide a little.

Hammond maybe the best hope there, doubt youll get any tory who hadnt lost whip declaring against it. Numbers still look against to my mind, 5 lab rebels already potentially but they probably need twice that im thinking.

Mr.Wemmick

Labour MPs need to get on the right side of history today. They will never be forgiven for fallen into Johnson's trap and need look past the ignorant baying brexit mobs. The country is being destroyed by the toxic tory sh!tshow, and it's time they were stopped.

Any progress to date has been brought about by Ireland and the EU. Without the EU, the UK will destroy itself. The tory party has not a clue how to unite folks, invite honest open debate, just toxic games which threaten democracy and serve the rich elite.

Anna Soubry called it right when she said: this deal will get a five hour debate without any independent assessments, analysis or select committee scrutiny of the most important set of decisions we will make in generations.

'Tis no wonder she left the Tory Party.

10000maniacs

Poor old Nigel Dodds on Radio 4 this morning cut off mid rant by a sore eared Mishal Hussain.
He was going on about losing the Unionist veto and Leo Varadkar.
He's now indignant about Varadkar insulting the DUP about the Queen and letterboxes.
Yet the DUP answer to food shortages is to "go to the chippy".

murphaph

10000maniacs wrote: »

Poor old Nigel Dodds on Radio 4 this morning cut off mid rant by a sore eared Mishal Hussain.
He was going on about losing the Unionist veto and Leo Varadkar.
He's now indignant about Varadkar insulting the DUP about the Queen and letterboxes.
Yet the DUP answer to food shortages is to "go to the chippy".

They can give it but they can't take it and Varadkar wasn't even trying to wind them up. They took him up that way because they are perpetually in siege mentality mode. It's really boring and predictable.

There is IMO no scenario apart from revoke which doesn't accelerate the coming about of a UI. The DUP have spectacularly failed in their primary mission. Without Brexit I doubt any of us would have seen a UI in our lifetimes. Now, all bets are off.

woohoo!!!

The DUP are the reason a United Ireland will happen. It's a wierd one how quickly things shift in perceptions. Johnson from Irish eyes is now seem more positively, the border in the sea is settled. UK remainers coming out with the deal facilitates a UI, we didn't vote for that/give NI away are coming into focus as the new enemy. The unicorns are on all sides. The overwhelming feeling from Ireland is just sign the damm thing and go away chasing bigly trade deals.

beggars_bush

woohoo!!! wrote: »

The DUP are the reason a United Ireland will happen. It's a wierd one how quickly things shift in perceptions. Johnson from Irish eyes is now seem more positively, the border in the sea is settled. UK remainers coming out with the deal facilitates a UI, we didn't vote for that/give NI away are coming into focus as the new enemy. The unicorns are on all sides. The overwhelming feeling from Ireland is just sign the damm thing and go away chasing bigly trade deals.

All goes out the window today when it's voted down in the HOC

Tea Shock

Mr.Wemmick wrote: »

Labour MPs need to get on the right side of history today. They will never be forgiven for fallen into Johnson's trap and need look past the ignorant baying brexit mobs. The country is being destroyed by the toxic tory sh!tshow, and it's time they were stopped.[\QUOTE]

Brexit is going to happen. There’s little doubt about that. It’s a good thing for Ireland if this gets passed so I hope it does. After that, Johnson needs an election result to go overwhelmingly in his favour in order for his supposed elaborate trap to bear fruit. That’s not a certainty

thecretinhop

Tea Shock wrote: »

Mr.Wemmick wrote: »

Labour MPs need to get on the right side of history today. They will never be forgiven for fallen into Johnson's trap and need look past the ignorant baying brexit mobs. The country is being destroyed by the toxic tory sh!tshow, and it's time they were stopped.[\QUOTE]

Brexit is going to happen. There’s little doubt about that. It’s a good thing for Ireland if this gets passed so I hope it does. After that, Johnson needs an election result to go overwhelmingly in his favour in order for his supposed elaborate trap to bear fruit. That’s not a certainty

100pc. its unreal to see the squirming from never brexiters... not right deal,vote again, now a bullsht amendment which will water it down to nothing.
stop guffing and admit some people do not want any deal at any costs.

woohoo!!!

beggars_bush wrote: »

All goes out the window today when it's voted down in the HOC

Most informed observers think it's going to fail, but narrowly. The EU will give an extension, with stages built in. I read that France have indicated that March is the furthest date. There isn't enough time for a referendum and I don't think a GE can be held off for much longer.

From our perspective a hard border has been defined and in the only place it can be, the Irish sea, whether this deal or some subsequent one. David Lammy has correctly identified that the only reason to leave the SM and CU is the intention to drop standards in order for Britain to compete with the EU. We'd be more sympathetic but remainers are now wibbling about NI being thrown away and creating in effect a UI, so we've a leave em at it attitude.

J Mysterio

10000maniacs wrote: »

Poor old Nigel Dodds on Radio 4 this morning cut off mid rant by a sore eared Mishal Hussain.
He was going on about losing the Unionist veto and Leo Varadkar.
He's now indignant about Varadkar insulting the DUP about the Queen and letterboxes.
Yet the DUP answer to food shortages is to "go to the chippy".

Its such a ridiculous position to hold - we need a Unionist veto. We need to have the final say. You can see why they dont like the GFA. These guys are always insulted.

Shelga

Ok. Have had a couple of days to digest this. I admit, at first it flashed through my mind that maybe they should just vote for it to move this torture forward at least.

But the deal is dire. It is worse in every single way than remaining in the EU. They still have to pay the divorce bill, something Johnson rubbished repeatedly. It takes Britain out of the single market and customs union- disastrous for businesses and manufacturing. By the Home Secretary’s own admission, it abolishes UK citizens’ rights to live and work in 27 EU countries.

Any Labour MP who votes for this needs to immediately lose the whip. History will also judge them harshly. They need to face down the anger of their horribly misinformed constituents (that description is being kind) and try to educate them- beyond that, accept that they won’t be re-elected.

So what, if it means they didn’t facilitate a horrific Tory deal that will lead to a crash out in a year anyway.