Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Shelga

Also, while the UK is still in the EU, there is some hope, however small, of remaining. Wouldn’t you want to think that you fought to the end to do the right thing.

RickBlaine

If the Letwin is passed and then the deal is passed, does that just basically postpone actually voting for the deal until another day?

Enzokk

woohoo!!! wrote: »

Most informed observers think it's going to fail, but narrowly. The EU will give an extension, with stages built in. I read that France have indicated that March is the furthest date. There isn't enough time for a referendum and I don't think a GE can be held off for much longer.

From our perspective a hard border has been defined and in the only place it can be, the Irish sea, whether this deal or some subsequent one. David Lammy has correctly identified that the only reason to leave the SM and CU is the intention to drop standards in order for Britain to compete with the EU. We'd be more sympathetic but remainers are now wibbling about NI being thrown away and creating in effect a UI, so we've a leave em at it attitude.

The EU will give the extension the UK requires. If there is an amendment that the deal is accepted but a confirmatory referendum is needed, do we really think the EU will scupper this by not allowing an extension long enough for this to happen? There will be grumbling from France and other nations but that is just playing politics.

As for this deal being good for Ireland, let us not forget that our closest neighbour is still the UK and even if the deal is better for us in that it avoids a border if it weakens the UK economically (their own choice) we will be worse off. This is the better than no-deal, but that doesn't mean it is a good deal for us.

Joe_ Public

Mark Carney: Brexit deal will boost flagging global economy

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/oct/18/mark-carney-brexit-deal-will-boost-flagging-global-economy?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

Does this strike people as a truly independent position from BoE governor? Carries whiff of government mouthpiece to me. Suggesting the uk is going to lead us all out of global recession post-brexit! Not even the toriest of tories could come out with guff like that with a straight face.

Enzokk

RickBlaine wrote: »

If the Letwin is passed and then the deal is passed, does that just basically postpone actually voting for the deal until another day?

I think if Letwin passes it states that legislation has to go through first so the deal itself cannot pass today. It just means everything is delayed until they get legislation done which with the numbers in the HoC means a lot of changes to the deal and could mean in the end Johnson voting against his own deal if they attach amendments to it that he doesn't like.

What a spectacle that would be.

J Mysterio

Its definitely true that as the deal works for Ireland, many of us will take that and let the UK worry about it from there.

But it's also true that the deal is awful for the UK, and it's right that Remainers/ Revokers/ sensible people in the UK vote this down at all costs.

There has been a funny alliance between Irish people generally, and Remainers where we have 'worked together' to stop the madness, but as we are now 'sorted', we are 'out'. This can be quite plainly observed online. But we have worried about Brexit - an English nationalist wet dream - for years and so we can't be blamed for looking after no. 1 now.

It's true that now the sea border is proferred, it is precedent, but it's also true that it can't be relied upon as being a consistent position from the UK as things are so changeable. In that context, many would want this deal passed now to lock in the Irish provisions, myself included.

Should the deal pass, I will remain an interested observer, but it will then be mostly a British problem and not a huge problem for Ireland and Britain.

PokeHerKing

Enzokk wrote: »

I think if Letwin passes it states that legislation has to go through first so the deal itself cannot pass today. It just means everything is delayed until they get legislation done which with the numbers in the HoC means a lot of changes to the deal and could mean in the end Johnson voting against his own deal if they attach amendments to it that he doesn't like.

What a spectacle that would be.

Didn't May already do that? What is they say about the definition of insanity...

Enzokk

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Mark Carney: Brexit deal will boost flagging global economy

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/oct/18/mark-carney-brexit-deal-will-boost-flagging-global-economy?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

Does this strike people as a truly independent position from BoE governor? Carries whiff of government mouthpiece to me. Suggesting the uk is going to lead us all out of global recession post-brexit! Not even the toriest of tories could come out with guff like that with a straight face.

The headline is a little misleading, but not deliberately. Passing this deal will mean that the UK economy can start recovering, but if they were to remain then he would state that it would be ten times better than the deal negotiated. Its just this deal gives them certainty and that is better than the mess there was since Johnson was elected, so in that respect he is right. But it is still worse than if they were to revoke.

Enzokk

PokeHerKing wrote: »

Didn't May already do that? What is they say about the definition of insanity...

May had the obstacle that she couldn't keep bringing her deal back unchanged for votes so she toyed with the idea of getting the legislation done before the meaningful vote. It was a way for her to try and get people to study her deal to see the benefits, this would be the opposite, give them time to study it to see how bad it is for everyone but the ERG.

Same tactic for different reasons.

PokeHerKing

Enzokk wrote: »

May had the obstacle that she couldn't keep bringing her deal back unchanged for votes so she toyed with the idea of getting the legislation done before the meaningful vote. It was a way for her to try and get people to study her deal to see the benefits, this would be the opposite, give them time to study it to see how bad it is for everyone but the ERG.

Same tactic for different reasons.

No I meant didn't May end up voting against her own deal at some point?

LeinsterDub

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1185469033589739520

If they pull the vote it give more time for the details to be examined. The lies they've told both sides of the Tory party to emerge. It's now or never if you ask me

Joe_ Public

Enzokk wrote: »

The headline is a little misleading, but not deliberately. Passing this deal will mean that the UK economy can start recovering, but if they were to remain then he would state that it would be ten times better than the deal negotiated. Its just this deal gives them certainty and that is better than the mess there was since Johnson was elected, so in that respect he is right. But it is still worse than if they were to revoke.

Headline merely picks out something he clearly stated in article so i wouldnt say its in any way misleading tbh. But i guess carney isnt in a great position as regards flexibility. Swing too far either direction and he'll be accused of bias either way so he does have to be measured in all he says. So i'd give him a pass here to be fair, though the global comment still reads like over indulged fantasy to me.

Joe_ Public

PokeHerKing wrote: »

No I meant didn't May end up voting against her own deal at some point?

I think what you might be getting at is she said shed resign if they passed it which was a pretty surreal position to take. Brexit - anything goes.

J Mysterio

The other thing about resolving the 'Irish question' now is that, currently, the DUP seem to have lost all goodwill among all and sundry throughout these islands and beyond.

In that context, its the perfect time to find a solution for NI going forward as:

- the DUP are seen as unreasonable and unlikeable, which is a largely accurate representation
- Irish issues re the border and NI are reasonably widely understood (perhaps for first time ever)
- the UK are distracted and many see NI as a problem to be dealt with so more important matters can be addressed.
- Ireland are now seen as having reasonable concerns and have facilitated the UK in their wish, opening compromise and goodwill from UK

NI has to move forward and there may never be a better opportunity to start to work towards a better, more workable situation.

Enzokk

PokeHerKing wrote: »

No I meant didn't May end up voting against her own deal at some point?

It was an amendment I think, that a change was made to it and the government went from supporting it to opposing their own motion. It wasn't her deal though but you are right she did have to oppose her own motion/deal/amendment.

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Headline merely picks out something he clearly stated in article so i wouldnt say its in any way misleading tbh. But i guess carney isnt in a great position as regards flexibility. Swing too far either direction and he'll be accused of bias either way so he does have to be measured in all he says. So i'd give him a pass here to be fair, though the global comment still reads like over indulged fantasy to me.

I didn't know how to phrase it, it is misleading in that it reads as if this deal will lead the recovery for the world when what it actually means the certainty this deal provides should allow the UK economy to start recovering and this would help the world economy as the struggling UK economy is one reason why everywhere else is a little sluggish.

bilston

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

So the loyalists are remainers now, yeah?

They are probably starting to come to that realisation. I've said before I'd love to know what went on the meeting the DUP had to decide which way to swing on Brexit. Did they at any point weigh up the risks? Clearly not.

Tea Shock

J Mysterio wrote: »

Should the deal pass, I will remain an interested observer, but it will then be mostly a British problem and not a huge problem for Ireland and Britain.

Well it’ll still be a huge problem for Irish exporters & importers especially the agri food sector if no FTA is reached afterwards

And they have no intention of paying the divorce bill. Don’t lose sight of what a pack of cowboys the Johnson government is!

Varta

Shelga wrote: »

Ok. Have had a couple of days to digest this. I admit, at first it flashed through my mind that maybe they should just vote for it to move this torture forward at least.

But the deal is dire. It is worse in every single way than remaining in the EU. They still have to pay the divorce bill, something Johnson rubbished repeatedly. It takes Britain out of the single market and customs union- disastrous for businesses and manufacturing. By the Home Secretary’s own admission, it abolishes UK citizens’ rights to live and work in 27 EU countries.

Any Labour MP who votes for this needs to immediately lose the whip. History will also judge them harshly. They need to face down the anger of their horribly misinformed constituents (that description is being kind) and try to educate them- beyond that, accept that they won’t be re-elected.

So what, if it means they didn’t facilitate a horrific Tory deal that will lead to a crash out in a year anyway.

Reverse democracy, totalitarianism, elitism... some remainers really don't like democracy. If I were British I would be a remainer, but I would be embarrassed by some of the sh*t I hear from the remain side.

Varta

Enzokk wrote: »

I think if Letwin passes it states that legislation has to go through first so the deal itself cannot pass today. It just means everything is delayed until they get legislation done which with the numbers in the HoC means a lot of changes to the deal and could mean in the end Johnson voting against his own deal if they attach amendments to it that he doesn't like.

What a spectacle that would be.

And you really believe that the EU is just going to allow that sh*t show to continue by granting more extensions?

Hurrache

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1185469033589739520

If they pull the vote it give more time for the details to be examined. The lies they've told both sides of the Tory party to emerge. It's now or never if you ask me

I think so, momentum seemed to be going with them going into last night anyway. It's a crap show today.

Capt'n Midnight

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Somehow I doubt this will be the Ulster Workers' Council strike 2.0

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/attachment.php?attachmentid=493294&stc=1&d=1571434878
twitter.com/dempster7/status/1185297459137990656"]twitter.com/dempster7

Back then one tribe had all the good jobs. Nowadays half the people up there don't subscribe to either tribe.

Thanks to interconnectors, wind, and private power stations it would be very difficult to arrange similar power cuts. Same with internet and satellite TV bypassing post and the local media.

Besides the workers from the big power stations, Harland and Wolfe, Bombarder and Wrightbus know that if they go on strike over this the owners might just cut the life support and cut their losses.

J Mysterio

Tea Shock wrote: »

Well it’ll still be a huge problem for Irish exporters & importers especially the agri food sector

And they have no intention of paying the divorce bill. Don’t lose sight of what a pack of cowboys the Johnson government is!

I'm not losing sight of that at all, in any way. I'm acutely aware of what they are like.

It's as I have said - never before have Ireland/ NI issues been so widely understood and appreciated and never again will it be so important to the UK to find a solution for NI/ Ireland.

If it's not done now, when will it be done?
If the UK cancel Brexit and remain, what happens to NI then? Carry on as before?

UK are in trouble no matter what happens. Have Brexit and they are fucķed, don't have Brexit and they are in big trouble also. They have let the genie out of the bottle, society is fractious as hell and faith in politics is hugely undermined (due to their own rash actions).

I am being selfish wanting NI/ Ireland situation resolved, but this does seem to offer a workable, lasting solution.

There is still the argument that Britain now needs Brexit to happen so they can recognise their true position in the world in the 21st century... and then come back to the EU family. I think that's reasonable to an extent, as the delusion is monumental.

Something needs to happen to 'bring the country together again'. And 'the country' in this context is probably basically England and Wales - Scotland will surely leave within five years.

Shelga

Varta wrote: »

Reverse democracy, totalitarianism, elitism... some remainers really don't like democracy. If I were British I would be a remainer, but I would be embarrassed by some of the sh*t I hear from the remain side.

A majority of Remain MPs would vote for a deal that didn’t trash the economy for generations. That they have not been presented with that yet is not their fault.

LeinsterDub

Varta wrote: »

And you really believe that the EU is just going to allow that sh*t show to continue by granting more extensions?

Fundamentally the EU want the UK to stay. I can see an extension till at least January being accepted. Let them have their GE and see how the chips lie then

devnull

According to Sky

A Number 10 source says: "If Letwin passes, [EU Council President Donald] Tusk will be given a copy of Parliament’s letter but we will continue to say to European leaders and everyone else ’get Brexit done on 31 October with our new deal, no delays’.

"The PM will not ask for or negotiate delay."

The wording is very interesting there, it suggests he will give Tusk the letter from Parliament but it will be attached to something else rather than him sending the letter himself.

Joe_ Public

Varta wrote: »

And you really believe that the EU is just going to allow that sh*t show to continue by granting more extensions?

Merkel quoted this mornings papers saying they will very likely give extension. That all but settles issue for me really.

MarinersBlues

bilston wrote: »

They are probably starting to come to that realisation. I've said before I'd love to know what went on the meeting the DUP had to decide which way to swing on Brexit. Did they at any point weigh up the risks? Clearly not.

Whenever I picture them deciding remain or leave I see:
a large community centre with the two words written on a board, they spend 30 seconds choosing which one sounds most like "NO!"

FrancieBrady

Any recent polling of numbers?

Shelga

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Any recent polling of numbers?

Laura Kuenssberg has latest numbers as 310 for, 302 against, with 27 undecided.

Itssoeasy

Shelga wrote: »

Laura Kuenssberg has latest numbers as 310 for, 302 against, with 27 undecided.

So he needs ten of those twenty seven to get the deal passed ?