Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

CelticRambler

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Oh god. Boris just said he hopes that labour will join them in the lobbies “later tonight”

Might be just a question of vocabulary; I've worked with a lot of English people who've referred to 4 in the afternoon as "tonight" (or "last night") Really threw me when I first came across it.

GM228

Pedro K wrote: »

I feel like a broken record in this thread asking this yet again, but does anybody know what time the big votes are to be?

Thanks in advance.

The Letwin amendment is (at this stage) likely to be the biggest vote today and due around 2.30 I believe.

Joe_ Public

Theres no way EU would give up on thia without seeing how a referendum or GE would change things. They'd like a deal but knew even when they were concludinf it that it would have trouble in the house. They are realists and diplomats, especially macron. Doing things because they are fed up or frustrated is not in the dna. They do what is right - which is almost certainly an extension, maybe even a long one - and play the long game.

ath262

from Chris Mason (BBC Pol. Reporter): Downing St on today: there is ‘no cut off point. It will run as long as MPs wish it to.’

afaik Benn act kicks in at 11pm, so that may be a sort of deadline....

Joe_ Public

Oafley Jones wrote: »

Surprised to see so much available seating in the Commons!

Main action isnt really till this afternoon when they debate amendments and motions. So just calm before the storm this morning. Could be anti climactic if no substantial vote though.

GM228

This is a pretty good point made, I would imagine the majority of UK citizens are under the impression that the WA if approved is Brexit done, little do they realise:-

https://twitter.com/bengoldacre/status/1185455746097373189?s=19

Varta

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Theres no way EU would give up on thia without seeing how a referendum or GE would change things. They'd like a deal but knew even when they were concludinf it that it would have trouble in the house. They are realists and diplomats, especially macron. Doing things because they are fed up or frustrated is not in the dna. They do what is right - which is almost certainly an extension, maybe even a long one - and play the long game.

Honestly, I think you are projecting your own belief onto the EU. There may well be EU members who now believe that the 'right' thing to do is to move on without the UK. Some of the newer EU members are quite a distance from the UK in many respects and are wondering what the fuss is about.

Joe_ Public

GM228 wrote: »

This is a pretty good point made, I would imagine the majority of UK citizens are under the impression that the WA if approved is Brexit done, little do they realise:-

https://twitter.com/bengoldacre/status/1185455746097373189?s=19

Some mps actually seem to struggle with it too so what hope for the people? Majority of people dont particularly engage with politics in any meaningful way so easy to get that sort of spin in wide circulation.

Joe_ Public

Varta wrote: »

Honestly, I think you are projecting your own belief onto the EU. There may well be EU members who now believe that the 'right' thing to do is to move on without the UK. Some of the newer EU members are quite a distance from the UK in many respects and are wondering what the fuss is about.

Its just how the EU operates that ive seen, years and years doing trade deals, however long it takes to dot every i and cross every t. A slogan like "get brexit done" would be silly to them. Of course, there are EU members that would probably be ok with jettisoning uk asap, but they are a minority and wont rock the boat. Not yet anyway. Pragmatism rules, i dont know is that wishful thinking but its way i believe things are.

Headshot

Looking at BJ it's like looking at Trump

These men a cancer to the world

Capt'n Midnight

Oh dear, that's not how you build consensus.

KildareP

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Its just how the EU operates that ive seen, years and years doing trade deals, however long it takes to dot every i and cross every t. A slogan like "get brexit done" would be silly to them. Of course, there are EU members that would probably be ok with jettisoning uk asap, but they are a minority and wont rock the boat. Not yet anyway. Pragmatism rules, i dont know is that wishful thinking but its way i believe things are.

I’d tend to agree but this is a whole new scenario for the EU.

Up to now it had always been someone outside, looking to get in.
It didn’t matter how long it took because the third party was just that - a third party. Safely outside the confines of the EU with zero influence or power.

The UK are already inside, looking to get out.
They could pose a whole world of hassle for the EU if they were so inclined - some of the more vocal Brexiters have already threatened to do just that.
Veto anything and everything, refuse to pass budgets, refuse to appoint key postholders, disrupt and distract every function of the EU as much as they can.

They can’t afford to grant an extension then wait that out should the UK go full rogue.

devnull

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Oh dear, that's not how you build consensus.

What happened? I'm unable to watch at the moment.

listermint

KildareP wrote: »

I’d tend to agree but this is a whole new scenario for the EU.

Up to now it had always been someone outside, looking to get in.
It didn’t matter how long it took because the third party was just that - a third party. Safely outside the confines of the EU with zero influence or power.

The UK are already inside, looking to get out.
They could pose a whole world of hassle for the EU if they were so inclined - some of the more vocal Brexiters have already threatened to do just that.
Veto anything and everything, refuse to pass budgets, refuse to appoint key postholders, disrupt and distract every function of the EU as much as they can.

They can’t afford to grant an extension then wait that out should the UK go full rogue.

That's based on the Tories being a majority.

.they aren't.

CelticRambler

GM228 wrote: »

This is a pretty good point made, I would imagine the majority of UK citizens are under the impression that the WA if approved is Brexit done, little do they realise:-

https://twitter.com/bengoldacre/status/1185455746097373189?s=19

There's a pertinent observation buried in the comments on that thread, especially given the rose-tinted view of history propounded by people like Francois: the victorious post WW2 Britain endured food-rationing until 1954, and the knock-on effects lasted until the 1990s.

Joe_ Public

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Oh dear, that's not how you build consensus.

The mo mowlam comments?

Joe_ Public

KildareP wrote: »

I’d tend to agree but this is a whole new scenario for the EU.

Up to now it had always been someone outside, looking to get in.
It didn’t matter how long it took because the third party was just that - a third party. Safely outside the confines of the EU with zero influence or power.

The UK are already inside, looking to get out.
They could pose a whole world of hassle for the EU if they were so inclined - some of the more vocal Brexiters have already threatened to do just that.
Veto anything and everything, refuse to pass budgets, refuse to appoint key postholders, disrupt and distract every function of the EU as much as they can.

They can’t afford to grant an extension then wait that out should the UK go full rogue.

Going rogue, though, is such an extreme position to take that it would very likely backfire on any administration trying it. I think EU wouldn't get too concerned about it. Brexit party is a nuisance for sure, but there are even bigger right wing blocs in eu parliament than them. They can be comfortably absorbed. That battle against the far right is an ongoing issue for certain but its a bigger story than brexit.

GM228

Joe_ Public wrote: »

The mo mowlam comments?

Yeap, I think she would be turning in her grave at Barclays faux pas:-

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1185505759905214464?s=19

Very ill judged comment, it could be said they are undermining all she worked towards.

CelticRambler

CelticRambler wrote: »

There's a pertinent observation buried in the comments on that thread, especially given the rose-tinted view of history propounded by people like Francois: the victorious post WW2 Britain endured food-rationing until 1954, and the knock-on effects lasted until the 1990s.

There were some areas of London that still had "bombsite carparks" in the 1990s and many cities still had scars from the blitz for decades afterwards, it's only property redevelopment in recent years that have finally erased most of them.

Joe_ Public

GM228 wrote: »

Yeap, I think she would be turning in her grave at Barclays faux pas:-

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1185505759905214464?s=19

Very ill judged comment, it could be said they are undermining all she worked towards.

Seemed he was clearly using it to hsve a dig at labour - with the momemtum pun, i think an intended one - which was crass. But as per the jo cox comments, what more do u expect from these guys?

https://mobile.twitter.com/Peston/status/1185509340133888001

No vote then today on the deal if that plays out?

GM228

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Seemed he was clearly using it to hsve a dig at labour - with the momemtum pun, i think an intended one - which was crass. But as per the jo cox comments, what more do u expect from these guys?

Without a shadow of a doubt it was aimed at Labour.

"Politics should not be about scoring points. It should be about getting things done, making politicians listen and making votes count" - Mo Mowlam

A Dub in Glasgo

BBC Scotland blaming Scottish MPs for stopping Brexit

https://twitter.com/T1978Derek/status/1185354959782629376

liamtech

I want to try and clarify this because it is slightly confusing for me, and i would imagine others

• The Benn Act means that tonight, if the HOC have not agreed to leave with a deal (one now exists), and has not voted in favor of leaving with no deal, then the PM must request an extension - i think one of my honorable colleagues:D here has stated that a dealine of 11PM is generally accepted
• The Letwin ammendment seems to be designed to support the idea of a technical extension to allow the legislation required to impliment the BOJO Deal be brought through the house, and passed - effectively said ammendment is for getting this deal done and preventing an accidental no deal exit as a result of slow legislation on Bojos deal (please excuse the meandering, this is complicated)
• The deal itself is due to be voted on, but i have heard it stated that the Gvt Bench doesnt want a vote on its deal today if Letwin passes

This seems to me paradoxical - and i am genuinely trying to wrap my head around it but with the Benn act IN PLACE - surely a vote today is necessary to avoid it coming in to effect??? and surely therefore the order of votes is silly in this case..

Vote on 'BOJO DEAL' - passes - avoids Benn Act
Vote on 'Letwin' - pass or fail - still benn act is avoided?

Generally i hope Bojo's deal fails because i prefer no brexit, as do many - but the sequence of today's votes is strange

i give way to you learned ladies and gentlemen

J Mysterio

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Theres no way EU would give up on thia without seeing how a referendum or GE would change things. They'd like a deal but knew even when they were concludinf it that it would have trouble in the house. They are realists and diplomats, especially macron. Doing things because they are fed up or frustrated is not in the dna. They do what is right - which is almost certainly an extension, maybe even a long one - and play the long game.

I think the key EU figures actually expect the UK to leave with this deal. They have put in a lot of work to make it happen for them.

ath262

liamtech wrote: »

I want to try and clarify this because it is slightly confusing for me, and i would imagine others
.....around it but with the Benn act IN PLACE - surely a vote today is necessary to avoid it coming in to effect??? and surely therefore the order of votes is silly in this case..


Vote on 'BOJO DEAL' - passes - avoids Benn Act
Vote on 'Letwin' - pass or fail - still benn act is avoided?

Generally i hope Bojo's deal fails because i prefer no brexit, as do many - but the sequence of today's votes is strange

i give way to you learned ladies and gentlemen

the sequencing I read on BBC blog earlier...

This means there could potentially be up to four votes today, in this order:

Vote on Oliver Letwin's amendment: This would provisionally support Boris Johnson's deal but withhold official approval until the legislation passes. In the meantime, it would force Mr Johnson to ask the EU for a delay. The idea behind it is to avoid a no-deal Brexit if the deal later fails to become law.

Vote on Boris Johnson's deal: This is a vote on the main government motion - whether or not to back the PM's deal. It's expected to be very tight. This vote is expected to be cancelled by No 10 if the Letwin amendment passes.

Vote on Kyle amendment: If the above vote does take place and Boris Johnson's deal is voted down by MPs, we could move on to the Kyle amendment to the no-deal motion. It calls for a confirmatory referendum.

Vote on motion for a no-deal Brexit. This is the government's second motion put forward today. It's MPs' chance to vote in favour of a no-deal, although they are unlikely to do so.

afaik Benn Act kicks in at 11pm

Joe_ Public

J Mysterio wrote: »

I think the key EU figures actually expect the UK to leave with this deal. They have put in a lot of work to make it happen for them.

I find it difficult to accept the EU would think this deal would sail through parliament tbh. Johnson probably fed them assurances that he'd get dup on board but do they really have that much faith in him? Are leo and him really all that great pals now? I just have trouble swallowing that narrative frankly.

liamtech

ath262 wrote: »

the sequencing I read on BBC blog earlier...

This means there could potentially be up to four votes today, in this order:

Vote on Oliver Letwin's amendment: This would provisionally support Boris Johnson's deal but withhold official approval until the legislation passes. In the meantime, it would force Mr Johnson to ask the EU for a delay. The idea behind it is to avoid a no-deal Brexit if the deal later fails to become law.

Vote on Boris Johnson's deal: This is a vote on the main government motion - whether or not to back the PM's deal. It's expected to be very tight. This vote is expected to be cancelled by No 10 if the Letwin amendment passes.

Vote on Kyle amendment: If the above vote does take place and Boris Johnson's deal is voted down by MPs, we could move on to the Kyle amendment to the no-deal motion. It calls for a confirmatory referendum.

Vote on motion for a no-deal Brexit. This is the government's second motion put forward today. It's MPs' chance to vote in favour of a no-deal, although they are unlikely to do so.

afaik Benn Act kicks in at 11pm

Ok but that is my point! the part as follows:

Vote on Boris Johnson's deal: This is a vote on the main government motion - whether or not to back the PM's deal. It's expected to be very tight. This vote is expected to be cancelled by No 10 if the Letwin amendment passes.

surely that automatically

• triggers Benn Act - extension
• no deal has been rejected
• extension

Does Letwin over-ride Benn? If you will follow my thinking, and given those comments on the BBC

first Vote - Letwin Ammendment

• Fails - Government tables BOJOS deal - Fails - auto kick in of Benn Act - Bojos deal Passes - Benn Act annulled - UK Leaves on Bojos deal in 12 days
• Passes - Government DOES NOT table Bojos Deal - Benn act is triggered - extension

So my main lack of understanding is why No10 doesnt want a BOJO Deal vote to avoid Benn.. unless Letwin over-rides Benn???

ath262

liamtech wrote: »

Ok but that is my point! the part as follows:
.....
Does Letwin over-ride Benn? If you will follow my thinking, and given those comments on the BBC

first Vote - Letwin Ammendment

• Fails - Government tables BOJOS deal - Fails - auto kick in of Benn Act - Bojos deal Passes - Benn Act annulled - UK Leaves on Bojos deal in 12 days
• Passes - Government DOES NOT table Bojos Deal - Benn act is triggered - extension

So my main lack of understanding is why No10 doesnt want a BOJO Deal vote to avoid Benn.. unless Letwin over-rides Benn???

not sure why he is doing this - I would have thought Benn act kicks in if they dont have a vote on the deal, unless Boris & co. think they have some sort of loophole figured out

liamtech

ath262 wrote: »

not sure why he is doing this - I would have thought Benn act kicks in if they dont have a vote on the deal, unless Boris & co. think they have some sort of loophole figured out

Well im glad im not alone in not being able to square this