Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

ath262

from Mark D'Arcy-BBC

...The [Letwin] amendment would withhold approval of the deal, until the legislation to enact it was safely passed - a move that would automatically trigger the "Benn Act" and force the prime minister to request a further postponement of Brexit until 31 January. ...

Water John

Starmer giving a commanding performance.

ath262

^^^ still dont get how he wriggles out of this if Letwin passes and No.10 pulls the main vote ... come 11pm he has to send the letter as defined in Benn and ask EU for delay

Headshot

Water John wrote: »

Starmer giving a commanding performance.

If he was the leader of Labour they'd be flying high in the Polls.

Joe_ Public

It wasnt letwin intention but it does bring benn act into play as a result. Letwin is essential because benn bill doesn't cater for the eventuality of the deal passing and it would also make vote irrelevant as it could not be binding under terms of letwin. So benn act will kick in by default at end of proceedings unless they do something to change that in chamber today.

liamtech

ath262 wrote: »

from Mark D'Arcy-BBC

...The [Letwin] amendment would withhold approval of the deal, until the legislation to enact it was safely passed - a move that would automatically trigger the "Benn Act" and force the prime minister to request a further postponement of Brexit until 31 January. ...

So if that is the case, then Letwin TRIGGERS Benn

But would Labor/Lib-Dems/SNP be better to

1. AVOID Letwin - therefore triggering Bojo Deal Vote
2. Vote Against Bojo Deal CLEARLY, without it simply returning to the shelf as the deal the HOC did NOT Reject
3. If/When Bojo Deal Rejected - Benn Triggered

Why support Letwin - this really is just extending without a general election

This is the MOST confusing part of the Brexit process so far, for me

Westernyelp

EU should publicly disband the brexit steering group now. Tell the UK they can have a short extension to sort their own **** out. But negotiations are permanently closed

J Mysterio

GM228 wrote: »

This is a pretty good point made, I would imagine the majority of UK citizens are under the impression that the WA if approved is Brexit done, little do they realise:-

https://twitter.com/bengoldacre/status/1185455746097373189?s=19

It's true that once the WA is finalized, the UK still the has to negotiate the future relationship and trade and this might well take a number of years. What is interesting though is those who now say that passing the WA is a way to 'no deal'. Ive been thinking about this and seems to me there is confusion on their part and a failure of nomenclature... They need new terminology as seems these guys are focused on trade only, and not understanding that regulatory frameworks and other basic agreements are set in place by the WA. My understanding is a future trade agreement will live under strictures as agreed in the WA.

So, in that context, maybe 'pass the deal for no deal' is a false argument? Possibly to entice ERG types like Francois? There is indeed a reason the EU broke the overall exit of the UK in to stages, with terms of withdrawal to be finalised before trade.

Either way, i think for most people, once the WA is ratified by both sides, there is a finality to that and Brexit is a reality. Arguments will remain and people will continue to be engaged, but to a much lesser extent and intensity.

I think the WA is the hardest part as what is agreed influences the future relationship. So e.g. if you rule out free movement of people, you rule out a level of access/ ease of access for trade.

Joe_ Public

liamtech wrote: »

So if that is the case, then Letwin TRIGGERS Benn

But would Labor/Lib-Dems/SNP be better to

1. AVOID Letwin - therefore triggering Bojo Deal Vote
2. Vote Against Bojo Deal CLEARLY, without it simply returning to the shelf as the deal the HOC did NOT Reject
3. If/When Bojo Deal Rejected - Benn Triggered

Why support Letwin - this really is just extending without a general election

This is the MOST confusing part of the Brexit process so far, for me

If you could be 100% certain of defeating the motion then no problem. Letwin is an insurance mechanism, has to go ahead.

Varta

liamtech wrote: »

So if that is the case, then Letwin TRIGGERS Benn

But would Labor/Lib-Dems/SNP be better to

1. AVOID Letwin - therefore triggering Bojo Deal Vote
2. Vote Against Bojo Deal CLEARLY, without it simply returning to the shelf as the deal the HOC did NOT Reject
3. If/When Bojo Deal Rejected - Benn Triggered

Why support Letwin - this really is just extending without a general election

This is the MOST confusing part of the Brexit process so far, for me

And the most frustrating for the EU. They bent over backwards to give the UK a new deal. Now the UK sets about doing its best to frustrate the passing of that deal. If Letwin succeeds the remainers will use it to attempt to destroy Johnson's deal. It's pure farce and I imagine the EU members are looking at it and thinking, "Ok, we gave them every opportunity and they are still Hell bent on messing about. Time to walk away and get on with running the EU."

ath262

liamtech wrote: »

...But would Labor/Lib-Dems/SNP be better to

1. AVOID Letwin - therefore triggering Bojo Deal Vote
2. Vote Against Bojo Deal CLEARLY, without it simply returning to the shelf as the deal the HOC did NOT Reject
3. If/When Bojo Deal Rejected - Benn Triggered

Why support Letwin - this really is just extending without a general election
...

Norman Foster BBC Asst. Pol. Ed. mentioned a little earlier on the blog that he thinks that Letwin may not pass.. some Labour and Tory rebels appear to the planning to vote against (or abstain)

Joe_ Public

J Mysterio wrote: »

It's true that once the WA is finalized, the UK still the has to negotiate the future relationship and trade and this might well take a number of years. What is interesting though is those who now say that passing the WA is a way to 'no deal'. Ive been thinking about this and seems to me there is confusion on their part and a failure of nomenclature... They need new terminology as seems these guys are focused on trade only, and not understanding that regulatory frameworks and other basic agreements are set in place by the WA. My understanding is a future trade agreement will live under strictures as agreed in the WA.

So, in that context, maybe 'pass the deal for no deal' is a false argument? Possibly to entice ERG types like Francois? There is indeed a reason the EU broke the overall exit of the UK in to stages, with terms of withdrawal to be finalised before trade.

Either way, i think for most people, once the WA is ratified by both sides, there is a finality to that and Brexit is a reality. Arguments will remain and people will continue to be engaged, but to a much lesser extent and intensity.

I think the WA is the hardest part as what is agreed influences the future relationship. So e.g. if you rule out free movement of people, you rule out a level of access/ ease of access for trade.

I wouldnt be so sure about the hard part being done with a WA passed. Look how amatuerish the uk have shown themselves to be in negotiations, can easily foresee a world of even greater pain ahead. And as per John Barron, all that keeping no deal on the table shows me theyre not learning from their mistakes.

Strazdas

ath262 wrote: »

Norman Foster BBC Asst. Pol. Ed. mentioned a little earlier on the blog that he thinks that Letwin may not pass.. some Labour and Tory rebels appear to the planning to vote against (or abstain)

That would set the cat among the pigeons

liamtech

Varta wrote: »

And the most frustrating for the EU. They bent over backwards to give the UK a new deal. Now the UK sets about doing its best to frustrate the passing of that deal. If Letwin succeeds the remainers will use it to attempt to destroy Johnson's deal. It's pure farce and I imagine the EU members are looking at it and thinking, "Ok, we gave them every opportunity and they are still Hell bent on messing about. Time to walk away and get on with running the EU."

Cant disagree with that - im aghast -

This is gonna be close

So from a remainer/soft-brexit/2ndRef pov, we need Letwin to pass

Headshot

Ian Blackford always speaks well and tearing Tories apart at the moment.

Also he's not happy Labour is not whipping against the Government Deal. Labour should kick out any MPs who vote for this deal

Harry Palmr

Blackford's speech is like one of those annoying hollywood blockbusters with 4 or 5 endings

Enzokk

ath262 wrote: »

Norman Foster BBC Asst. Pol. Ed. mentioned a little earlier on the blog that he thinks that Letwin may not pass.. some Labour and Tory rebels appear to the planning to vote against (or abstain)

I think there is a lot of pressure on Labour MPs to vote for this deal to just get it done. This will allow it to be done but the damage will continue. The sad thing is those people pressuring their MPs to vote for this deal will be upset with them for allowing Brexit to happen in the first place when reality hits them in a few years time.

As for Labour, if this goes through they will have a tough time with Corbyn going into the next election. I have no doubt they will be able to try and remind people of austerity but Johnson and Cummings will surely try to spin it as Labour trying to frustrate Brexit and delay the economic uplands that will follow. People will be stupid enough to buy this as well.

J Mysterio

Headshot wrote: »

Ian Blackford always speaks well and tearing Tories apart at the moment.

Also he's not happy Labour is not whipping against the Government Deal. Labour should kick out any MPs who vote for this deal

Corbyn's last effort at letting the government deliver Brexit then.

If you want remain or revoke, it's inexcusable not to exercise 'three line whip'

Joe_ Public

My god, i remember when caroline flint was one of the staunch remainers and that wasnt long ago. Now she's up on her feet, stabbing the air like an erg brexiteer and pouring vitriol on the EU. She must realise she is simply helping to prop up a tory hard brexit and potential future majority, very alarming and sad to witness.

CarPark2

https://mobile.twitter.com/JamesERothwell/status/1185521219094962176

Loyalists threatening civil unrest.

Harry Palmr

How strangely comforting to hear Theresa May's voice!

Headshot

Harry Palmr wrote: »

How strangely comforting to hear Theresa May's voice!

I think she's probably one of the worse Tories there.

NotToScale

Do we have any idea what time a vote is likely to happen ?

Itssoeasy

Theresa May going full ahead with Boris Johnson it seems.

Joe_ Public

Word for word like every useless speech she's made over past 7-8 months. Nothing new to add whatsoever.

GM228

Harry Palmr wrote: »

How strangely comforting to hear Theresa May's voice!

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1185531893770530816?s=19

Very true to be fair.

Interestingly she stands by BJ despite No.10 not wanting to speak to her apparently:-

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1185531625582616581?s=19

Headshot

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Theresa May going full ahead with Boris Johnson it seems.

Yap it's disgusting how she can support someone who stabbed them in the back

AllForIt

GM228 wrote: »

This is a pretty good point made, I would imagine the majority of UK citizens are under the impression that the WA if approved is Brexit done, little do they realise:-

https://twitter.com/bengoldacre/status/1185455746097373189?s=19

This point is made in the British media on a daily basis multiple times per day.

"Getting Brexit done" is obviously meant in the sense of the UK no longer being a member of the EU by the end of the month (which would be the case if the deal passes today which I think and hope it will) and puts to bed any possibility of Brexit not happening at all.

ath262

NotToScale wrote: »

Do we have any idea what time a vote is likely to happen ?

last I heard, the first vote likely after 14:30 - presumably on Letwin Amendment

Joe_ Public

I think theres somewhere in Theresa mays deluded mind that this is still HER brexit deal and so her legacy will be secure, just she wont get immediate credit for it. While it is essentially her deal in many respects, what a legacy to leave anyway, history books will not be kind.