Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

GM228

Roll on midnight and we will have a clearer picture of proceedings in court tomorrow:-

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1185598817909039105?s=19

GM228

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Beth Rigby reporting this.

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1185592504093159426

Guardian reporting the opposite:-

https://twitter.com/StevePeers/status/1185597983859118080?s=19

It was mentioned yesterday he said there would be no extension, but Merkel signalled there would be, and from the Guardian:-

But senior EU officials said it was clear during the discussions among the leaders at a summit on Thursday that “they would grant an extension”. “Even [the French president Emmanuel] Macron in the room didn’t suggest otherwise,” the source said.

Professor Moriarty

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Beth Rigby reporting this.

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1185592504093159426

Could be right but it's a bit of dúirt bean liom go ndúirt bean léi.

liamtech

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Beth Rigby reporting this.

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1185592504093159426

Well if it is true then the only option is to have the opposition make their move -

A substantial change would be a GNU - caretaker - telling the EU that BJ is out - we are in pending a General Election and possibly 2ndREF -

Thats it like - its now or never - if they do nothing then BJ will get 10-15 votes, get the deal through - fast track the legislation and its done

If they REALLY WANT to avoid Brexit, they have to act

FrancieBrady

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Could be right but it's a bit of dúirt bean liom go ndúirt bean léi.

liamtech wrote: »

Well if it is true then the only option is to have the opposition make their move -

A substantial change would be a GNU - caretaker - telling the EU that BJ is out - we are in pending a General Election and possibly 2ndREF -

Thats it like - its now or never - if they do nothing then BJ will get 10-15 votes, get the deal through - fast track the legislation and its done

If they REALLY WANT to avoid Brexit, they have to act

High time the EU did something out of left field to sort this.

theological

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Its kind of a bit sad though that Johnson's team are taking it as some kind of masterstroke that the eu reopened the WA. To do what? To go back to a position they were happy to accept 2 years ago and which was a major UK concession. I mean, some victory, right? And now we're back to keep no deal on table, maximum leverage angle again. When the uk learns how to negotiate in a mature, grown up fashion, maybe it can stop getting itself into these kind of messes.

Not true.

The significant bit that has changed is democratic input from Northern Ireland on it's affairs. That's a big achievement for Johnson particularly given that they were told that it wasn't under discussion.

Whether you like it or not, Johnson has succeeded in removing the backstop and has provided a permanent legislative mechanism for EU affairs for Northern Ireland. That's not a small achievement.

The Letwin amendment passing this afternoon actually helps Johnson. It gives him more time to find MPs to support his deal. It simply prevents a no deal agreement.

More and more Labour MPs are declaring support for passing it. You can now add Melanie Onn to the list of MPs I provided previously who will more than likely back the deal and see through the self-serving attitude of the Labour front bench.

Professor Moriarty

FrancieBrady wrote: »

High time the EU did something out of left field to sort this.

They could decide to grant a very short or very long extension. Despite Johnson's bluff and bluster, he doesn't want to crash out.

Joe_ Public

Being old fashioned i struggle with this idea of diplomacy by text message. Why would macron even give him that assurance.and why are they such good text buddy pals all of a sudden? Guess it would explain bojos smugness today anyway but wouldnt believe any of this until hear official word. Macron got to deal with merkel too!

Joe_ Public

theological wrote: »

Not true.

The significant bit that has changed is democratic input from Northern Ireland on it's affairs. That's a big achievement for Johnson particularly given that they were told that it wasn't under discussion.

Whether you like it or not, Johnson has succeeded in removing the backstop and has provided a permanent legislative mechanism for EU affairs for Northern Ireland. That's not a small achievement.

The Letwin amendment passing this afternoon actually helps Johnson. It gives him more time to find MPs to support his deal. It simply prevents a no deal agreement.

More and more Labour MPs are declaring support for passing it. You can now add Melanie Onn to the list of MPs I provided previously who will more than likely back the deal and see through the self-serving attitude of the Labour front bench.

Melanie Onn declared yesterday so nothing new there. Only 6 lab voted with gov today and 4 abstained so even if you included the abstentions as pro-deal you only have enough to cancel out dup. Numbers arent there and i doubt ever will be.

Also, fact remains they only got to a position they could have reached 2 years ago. Its nothing to crow about and lost their governing partners into the bargain. Thrilling victory you'd have to say!

FrancieBrady

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Being old fashioned i struggle with this idea of diplomacy by text message. Why would macron even give him that assurance.and why are they such good text buddy pals all of a sudden? Guess it would explain bojos smugness today anyway but wouldnt believe any of this until hear official word. Macron got to deal with merkel too!

The more you think about it, the more bizarre it seems. I think Beth was being sold a dummy.

theological

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Melanie Onn declared yesterday so nothing new there. Only 6 lab voted with gov today and 4 abstained so even if you included the abstentions as pro-deal you only have enough to cancel out dup. Numbers arent there and i doubt ever will be.

Also, fact remains they only got to a position they could have reached 2 years ago. Its nothing to crow about and lost their governing partners into the bargain. Thrilling victory you'd have to say!

The vote for this amendment - is not an anti-Brexit vote, it is a vote to ensure the legislation is in place before a deal.

Letwin who raised the amendment supports the deal, but wants to prevent no deal in the interim.

There are MPs who voted for this amendment, who will also vote for the deal.

liamtech

theological wrote: »

The vote for this amendment - is not an anti-Brexit vote, it is a vote to ensure the legislation is in place before a deal.

Letwin who raised the amendment supports the deal, but wants to prevent no deal in the interim.

There are MPs who voted for this amendment, who will also vote for the deal.

We are seeing momentum in the direction of brexit for sure

This is why i keep saying - this is the LAST TIME the opposition have to act - literally - this week i suspect - otherwise brexit is done

CelticRambler

theological wrote: »

Johnson has succeeded in removing the backstop and has provided a permanent legislative mechanism for EU affairs for Northern Ireland. That's not a small achievement.

Hmm. I don't believe Johnson succeeded with anything of the sort. I think Varadkar went to Cheshire and handed him an achievement, carefully prepared and packaged by the team in the EU who knew they were dealing with an incompetent fool that needed all the help he could get.

Seeing as all of us "amateurs" here on boards.ie have known for three years that an Irish Sea border was the only feasible solution to every Brexit problem, I reckon all those late night "negotiations" of the last couple of weeks were EU officials patiently explaining to the British the detail of a plan that's been sitting on a Brussels shelf for two years.

Or maybe smacking them over the head with it.

Joe_ Public

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The more you think about it, the more bizarre it seems. I think Beth was being sold a dummy.

Prof was on ball earlier i reckon with his duirt bean liom line. Could be a wind up. Then again something surely got to explain johnsons smugness today after amendment passed. I want it to be empty bluster but still worries me all the same. What trick have they up their sleeve?

hometruths

I think this is all playing into Johnson's hands for positioning his campaign for the GE.

He will have to ask for an extension tonight, and will refuse to aceept/negotiate any conditions the EU might want to impose.

If you believe EU will grant an extension their only option is to say yes to 31st January, no strings attached.

Extension in place, Corbyn must table the VONC which presumably government will lose. There wont be enough support for GNU - move straight to GE.

IMO today's carry on simply increases the chances of a big Johnson majority in GE. I don't think there will be a deal which is as good for Ireland as the one that is on the table at the minute.

Joe_ Public

theological wrote: »

The vote for this amendment - is not an anti-Brexit vote, it is a vote to ensure the legislation is in place before a deal.

Letwin who raised the amendment supports the deal, but wants to prevent no deal in the interim.

There are MPs who voted for this amendment, who will also vote for the deal.

Todays vote was a reasonable proxy vote for deal i would say. No tories voted for and if a few, no more than a handful, might vote for amendment and deal, it wouldn't be enough to swing it. Kate hoey voted with gov today but i think she will be against deal when it comes back and there could be one or two more in that bracket too. Without dup, going to be very hard work for johnson and far from convinced he even gets those labour 10.

theological

schmittel wrote: »

I think this is all playing into Johnson's hands for positioning his campaign for the GE.

He will have to ask for an extension tonight, and will refuse to aceept/negotiate any conditions the EU might want to impose.

If you believe EU will grant an extension their only option is to say yes to 31st January, no strings attached.

Extension in place, Corbyn must table the VONC which presumably government will lose. There wont be enough support for GNU - move straight to GE.

IMO today's carry on simply increases the chances of a big Johnson majority in GE. I don't think there will be a deal which is as good for Ireland as the one that is on the table at the minute.

Why do you think he will lose a vote of no confidence?

Jeremy Corbyn is losing support of Labour backbenchers on this. That is clear. I'm not convinced the DUP will vote against Johnson, and I'm not convinced any Tories (or Independent Tories) will either.

The realistic direction of travel seems to be that Johnson will pass this deal and then move towards an election. Hopefully Corbyn won't be too chicken to accept one.

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Todays vote was a reasonable proxy vote for deal i would say. No tories voted for and if a few, no more than a handful, might vote for amendment and deal, it wouldn't be enough to swing it. Kate hoey voted with gov today but i think she will be against deal when it comes back and there could be one or two more in that bracket too. Without dup, going to be very hard work for johnson and far from convinced he even gets those labour 10.

No. Today's vote was on the mechanism for agreement. As I said, some of those who voted for it have expressed an interest in voting for the deal.

Duane Dibbley

brickster69 wrote: »

Obviously the EU will accept an extension. The only deal they cannot accept is no deal. Backstop gone and withdrawal agreement opened which they said they would never do. Bluffers thrown it's hand away already

Why don’t the UK just leave. The EU have agreed 2 Brexit deals now. Unless you are a remainer and delighted with the extensions.

Are you a remainer?

hometruths

theological wrote: »

Why do you think he will lose a vote of no confidence?

Jeremy Corbyn is losing support of Labour backbenchers on this. That is clear. I'm not convinced the DUP will vote against Johnson, and I'm not convinced any Tories (or Independent Tories) will either.

The realistic direction of travel seems to be that Johnson will pass this deal and then move towards an election. Hopefully Corbyn won't be too chicken to accept one.

Labour will run a 3 line whip on it, SNP will all back it, as will Lib Dems I imagine.

Johnston wants to lose a VONC , no doubt about, expect some strategic Tory abstentions to bolster the above numbers.

jem

Could the Eu not respond to the extension letter by giving them an extension which would have them leave 1 month after the UK parliment votes to leave.
So if they vote to leave on say Oct 30th they leave on Nov 30th, likewise of the dont vote to leave until March 31st then they leave April 30th.
In effect a rolling extenstion so one way or the other there is no cliff edge.

Joe_ Public

theological wrote: »

Why do you think he will lose a vote of no confidence?

Jeremy Corbyn is losing support of Labour backbenchers on this. That is clear. I'm not convinced the DUP will vote against Johnson, and I'm not convinced any Tories (or Independent Tories) will either.

The realistic direction of travel seems to be that Johnson will pass this deal and then move towards an election. Hopefully Corbyn won't be too chicken to accept one.



No. Today's vote was on the mechanism for agreement. As I said, some of those who voted for it have expressed an interest in voting for the deal.

I know what todays vote was for. The key number is 6 - thats how many labour mps backed it and thats not enough for the pm without the dup. Forget about letwin and one or two other independents being in favour. To get a deal through he needs more Labour votes and theres nothing today that suggests he'll get them. No reason for any labour leaver not to be voting against the amendment today.

Water John

How many have to switch, nine?

prawnsambo

jem wrote: »

Could the Eu not respond to the extension letter by giving them an extension which would have them leave 1 month after the UK parliment votes to leave.
So if they vote to leave on say Oct 30th they leave on Nov 30th, likewise of the dont vote to leave until March 31st then they leave April 30th.
In effect a rolling extenstion so one way or the other there is no cliff edge.

Yes they can. And they did the last time:

If the Withdrawal Agreement is ratified by both parties before this date, the withdrawal will take place on the first day of the following month.

Edit: Past the set date is not possible. That requires a whole lot of legislation which would be a complete pain in the arse.

Dyr

CelticRambler wrote: »

Hmm. I don't believe Johnson succeeded with anything of the sort. I think Varadkar went to Cheshire and handed him an achievement, carefully prepared and packaged by the team in the EU who knew they were dealing with an incompetent fool that needed all the help he could get.

Seeing as all of us "amateurs" here on boards.ie have known for three years that an Irish Sea border was the only feasible solution to every Brexit problem, I reckon all those late night "negotiations" of the last couple of weeks were EU officials patiently explaining to the British the detail of a plan that's been sitting on a Brussels shelf for two years.

Or maybe smacking them over the head with it.

No one on the forum predicted that Varadker would climb down on the backstop, it was quite the opposite posters certain there would be no give or further concessions

joe40

schmittel wrote: »

I think this is all playing into Johnson's hands for positioning his campaign for the GE.

He will have to ask for an extension tonight, and will refuse to aceept/negotiate any conditions the EU might want to impose.

If you believe EU will grant an extension their only option is to say yes to 31st January, no strings attached.

Extension in place, Corbyn must table the VONC which presumably government will lose. There wont be enough support for GNU - move straight to GE.

IMO today's carry on simply increases the chances of a big Johnson majority in GE. I don't think there will be a deal which is as good for Ireland as the one that is on the table at the minute.

But will a big Johnston majority just mean this deal will then go through so we will be no worse of for having an extension

prawnsambo

Bambi wrote: »

No one on the forum predicted that Varadker would climb down on the backstop, it was quite the opposite posters certain there would be no give or further concessions

He climbed down from the backstop to a front stop. If you need to know how much like the original NI backstop it is, ask the DUP.

The Rape of Lucretia

schmittel wrote: »

He will have to ask for an extension tonight, and will refuse to aceept/negotiate any conditions the EU might want to impose.

If you believe EU will grant an extension their only option is to say yes to 31st January, no strings attached.

Surely they have the option of saying they will extend, but only a 'technical' extension of 1 week or something to allow the passing of legislation. Johnson asks for 4 months, as law requires him to, but is turned down. Accepts.
Both sides understand this is useful as his deal has a reasonable chance of succeeding, and getting the job done by 31st.
A nod and a wink understanding, already setup by the sherpas for this very scenario, just waiting to be triggered.

Joe_ Public

Water John wrote: »

How many have to switch, nine?

9 or 10 could well do it, but that would be assuming he holds on to the likes of philip hammond and justine greening and i detected some resistance in their words today. Guto Bebb is another tory rebel who could easily be against the deal.

Christy42

Bambi wrote: »

No one on the forum predicted that Varadker would climb down on the backstop, it was quite the opposite posters certain there would be no give or further concessions

I mean. We called it by a different name if you feel that is a climb down?

The UK can't cancel it. It has to be NI so that worry is gone. There is no time limit on it. It will be out of the customs union.. but have it's laws dictated to it by Brussels with no voice at the table.

FrancieBrady

prawnsambo wrote: »

He climbed down from the backstop to a front stop. If you need to know how much like the original NI backstop it is, ask the DUP.

That move could have the DUP being critical in stopping Brexit altogether. By supporting another Ref.
Irony meter overload.