Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

robinph

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Very interesting thread. From what i can gather the WA is on the statute book but hasnt fully been given approval yet. Bit beyond my pay grade to work out what that actually means in practice.

Which is the whole point of the Letwin amendment. It was MPs saying they would agree to the deal once all other legal obligations prior to actually leaving were completed. So unless the government deliberately trys not to do the other legal processes the WA is agreed just by virtue of the amendment having been voted on.

Joe_ Public

Our old pal Andrew Bridgen on marion finucane now. Not only will the uk be negotiating a very quick fta with the EU (the easiest deal in history?) they'll be doing it with the US as well (6 months he says. SIX MONTHS!)

Also says they'll walk away from EU if not geting want they want and withhold 39 bn. Guy is a troll, why do they keep bringing him on as a guest?

liamtech

BALLOT ONE

Do you wish to Leave the EU in line with the 2016 Referendum Result or would you prefer to remain

LEAVE []
Remain []

BALLOT TWO

Do You wish to Leave the EU with the Deal negotiated by Boris Johnson UK PM, or would you prefer to leave without a deal / Clean Break Brexit

With a Deal []
Without a Deal []

With the second ballot question only attaining meaning if the first passes with a Leave Win

its the only fair way top do it, if you want No Dealers to have a chance - but avoid splitting the Leave Vote, which would be unfair

Joe_ Public

Tired Gardener wrote: »

Seeing how split the Leave side are it makes more sense to give them more nuanced option to better fit their odd ideology.

We had Leave or Remain, which is too simplistic. Remain or Leave with Johnson's deal is again too simplistic.

Ideally the ballet should have four options, but Remain isn't split.

Given the situation the UK is in, with three camps emerging binary options aren't going to work. It will most likely not be a 3 option vote, but that isn't to say that it shouldn't be

Edit, also regarding it being a recipe for Chaos, the UK is already looking chaotic.

Its good to have these discussions about a second ref because its just not a simple process and needs to be very carefully calibrated imo. As things stand, if a second ref motion is passed, the legislation is going to be enacted by a johnson led government and theres going to be holy murder about it for certain. An analyst on sky yesterday said he thought with all the likely fighting over the terms it would be a year before we got there. That may be off, but i think he's right about the fuss it will cause. However its finally framed.

robinph

liamtech wrote: »

BALLOT ONE

Do you wish to Leave the EU in line with the 2016 Referendum Result or would you prefer to remain

LEAVE []
Remain []

BALLOT TWO

Do You wish to Leave the EU with the Deal negotiated by Boris Johnson UK PM, or would you prefer to leave without a deal / Clean Break Brexit

With a Deal []
Without a Deal []

With the second ballot question only attaining meaning if the first passes with a Leave Win

its the only fair way top do it, if you want No Dealers to have a chance - but avoid splitting the Leave Vote, which would be unfair

But ballot one is asking if you want to leave with unicorns or remain and that is not the current position. The 2016 option no longer exists.

liamtech

robinph wrote: »

But ballot one is asking if you want to leave with unicorns or remain and that is not the current position. The 2016 option no longer exists.

No its not - ballot one is confirmatory - it is asking - Do you still wanna leave y/n

The second question - which only comes into effect if Leave wins above- is asking deal - or no deal

I maintain its possible to do this , and its the only fair way

Oafley Jones

liamtech wrote: »

No its not - ballot one is confirmatory - it is asking - Do you still wanna leave y/n

The second question - which only comes into effect if Leave wins above- is asking deal - or no deal

I maintain its possible to do this , and its the only fair way

You’d never phrase it that way. You’re automatically skewing things.

Tea Shock

Only caught the last bit of it but sounds like Michael McDowell did a really good job of putting Andrew Bridgen in his place on the Marion Funnicsne show just now!

Tired Gardener

liamtech wrote: »

No its not - ballot one is confirmatory - it is asking - Do you still wanna leave y/n

The second question - which only comes into effect if Leave wins above- is asking deal - or no deal

I maintain its possible to do this , and its the only fair way

It does seem like a more plausible solution. If it did get to the second ballot, where would Remainers vote? Voting for the deal is not the same as voting to remain. So, we'd be in limbo, and feel that we haven't had a say in the future.

liamtech

liamtech wrote: »

No its not - ballot one is confirmatory - it is asking - Do you still wanna leave y/n

The second question - which only comes into effect if Leave wins above- is asking deal - or no deal

I maintain its possible to do this , and its the only fair way

It would work better if the second question was rephrased


BALLOT TWO (only valid if leave is selected in ballot one)

J Mysterio

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Our old pal Andrew Bridgen on marion finucane now. Not only will the uk be negotiating a very quick fta with the EU (the easiest deal in history?) they'll be doing it with the US as well (6 months he says. SIX MONTHS!)

Also says they'll walk away from EU if not geting want they want and withhold 39 bn. Guy is a troll, why do they keep bringing him on as a guest?

The 39B is resolved in the WA. So has nothing to do with subsequent trade negotiations. It won't be withheld.

J Mysterio

liamtech wrote: »

BALLOT ONE

Do you wish to Leave the EU in line with the 2016 Referendum Result or would you prefer to remain

LEAVE []
Remain []

BALLOT TWO

Do You wish to Leave the EU with the Deal negotiated by Boris Johnson UK PM, or would you prefer to leave without a deal / Clean Break Brexit

With a Deal []
Without a Deal []

With the second ballot question only attaining meaning if the first passes with a Leave Win

its the only fair way top do it, if you want No Dealers to have a chance - but avoid splitting the Leave Vote, which would be unfair

The government simply cant offer a frickin No Deal to the electorate, its the height of irresponsibility.

The UK have only ever mentioned it as a threat.

Its like asking someone 'would you take this cyanide tablet?', when you know it will kill them, but they think it's largely a good idea but with some possible mild side affects.

Tea Shock

liamtech wrote: »

No its not - ballot one is confirmatory - it is asking - Do you still wanna leave y/n

The second question - which only comes into effect if Leave wins above- is asking deal - or no deal

I maintain its possible to do this , and its the only fair way

The funny thing about this is the people who act all outraged over people who voted Leave being spoken to as if they are stupid and didn’t know what they were voting for.....the same people say this voting structure is too complex for people! True story!

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo

I'm genuinely taken aback how much Europe has rowed in behind Ireland's position. Might have to pay for it down the road, we owe them. But they have been resolute and unshakeable on not putting a border on the island of Ireland.

Britain has never given a crap about Ireland. The EU has held them to account. They have forced them to take responsibility for Northern Ireland. I hope all the people living in the border counties remember this loyalty if NI is given a free vote on an EU in/out referendum.

Seth Brundle

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo wrote: »

I'm genuinely taken aback how much Europe has rowed in behind Ireland's position. Might have to pay for it down the road, we owe them.

We owe them nothing. They stood firm to protect the integrity of the union. If they let a small country get damaged with no intervention to help then all other small member states would question the value ofbrheir membership.
Don't get me wrong on how great bit is but the EU were never going to side with a dysfunctional leaver over a loyal member state.

The high horse brigade

We'll be back to the EU looking for financial aid when we get a United Ireland. This is what they expect and they have dealt with similar in the unification of Germany

Joe_ Public

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo wrote: »

I'm genuinely taken aback how much Europe has rowed in behind Ireland's position. Might have to pay for it down the road, we owe them. But they have been resolute and unshakeable on not putting a border on the island of Ireland.

Britain has never given a crap about Ireland. The EU has held them to account. They have forced them to take responsibility for Northern Ireland. I hope all the people living in the border counties remember this loyalty if NI is given a free vote on an EU in/out referendum.

I have wondered whether irish support for the mercosur deal could be a price to pay for EU backing. Varadkar has said they wont back it without further reassurances so remains to be seen. I could be wrong, just a feeling i have.

Guy:Incognito

liamtech wrote: »

No its not - ballot one is confirmatory - it is asking - Do you still wanna leave y/n

But what about people who would only vote leave if it definitely wasnt a no deal? That makes a huge difference.

The leave/remain vote has to be the 2nd one with a definite decision already made on what leave actually means.

J Mysterio

UK politics is bloody insufferable.

The ink on the 2nd deal negotiated with the EU has barely dried, and already people are thinking to just add ammendments to the deal to make it more palatable, including sensible commentators like Ian Dunt.

https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1185878974448177152

Bill Cash, one of the most extreme EU haters to have ever lived, gave his support to the deal in the HOC yesterday on the proviso that various elements of the deal can be amended.

What the hell is the story with this? The UK fundamentally don't get it. The EU and the UK have negotiated this deal, it is for them to ratify it, not continue negotiations with themselves on what was produced. It's infuriating.

The high horse brigade

J Mysterio wrote: »

UK politics is bloody insufferable.

The ink on the 2nd deal negotiated with the EU has barely dried, and already people are thinking to just add ammendments to the deal to make it more palatable, including sensible commentators like Ian Dunt.

https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1185878974448177152

Bill Cash, one of the most extreme EU haters to have ever lived, gave his support to the deal in the HOC yesterday on the proviso that various elements of the deal can be amended.

What the hell is the story with this? The UK fundamentally don't get it. The EU and the UK have negotiated this deal, it is for them to ratify it, not continue negotiations with themselves on what was produced. It's infuriating.

They need to be told by the EU, no extension, vote for the only deal that's on the table.

SJW Lover

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo wrote: »

I'm genuinely taken aback how much Europe has rowed in behind Ireland's position. Might have to pay for it down the road, we owe them.

They still owe us. Plenty.

robinph

liamtech wrote: »

No its not - ballot one is confirmatory - it is asking - Do you still wanna leave y/n

The second question - which only comes into effect if Leave wins above- is asking deal - or no deal

I maintain its possible to do this , and its the only fair way

Until leave is defined, as in the deal Johnson has come up with, a leave v remain choice is stupid. Having an undefined choice that means whatever each person wants is how we've ended up where we are now.

Letwin_Larry

The high horse brigade wrote: »

We'll be back to the EU looking for financial aid when we get a United Ireland. This is what they expect and they have dealt with similar in the unification of Germany

there will be no united ireland anytime soon (next 50 years at least) the Remainers aka Unionists will see to that.

briany

Wait, wait, wait, hold on. An all-UK customs union? And it might get through? 2018 called, and it's rather angry.

Strazdas

Seth Brundle wrote: »

We owe them nothing. They stood firm to protect the integrity of the union. If they let a small country get damaged with no intervention to help then all other small member states would question the value ofbrheir membership.
Don't get me wrong on how great bit is but the EU were never going to side with a dysfunctional leaver over a loyal member state.

Yes, I think they would also have stood up for a Denmark or a Finland or a Portugal in a similar (hypothetical) scenario. It's a good example though of how the EU can work very successfully.

The high horse brigade

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

there will be no united ireland anytime soon (next 50 years at least) the Remainers aka Unionists will see to that.

It'll happen within 10 years, Brexit has brought it forward.

Letwin_Larry

The high horse brigade wrote: »

It'll happen within 10 years, Brexit has brought it forward.

not a chance

Guy:Incognito

The high horse brigade wrote: »

It'll happen within 10 years, Brexit has brought it forward.

Again though, why? Why are we jumping straight in to a united Ireland?

It's our very own Brexit . All the talk of how everything will be grand, lets just do it with no discussion of the downsides.

Strazdas

J Mysterio wrote: »

The government simply cant offer a frickin No Deal to the electorate, its the height of irresponsibility.

The UK have only ever mentioned it as a threat.

Its like asking someone 'would you take this cyanide tablet?', when you know it will kill them, but they think it's largely a good idea but with some possible mild side affects.

'No Deal' is not even a legal concept as it involves the ripping up of all existing treaties, agreements and trade deals. I can't see how this could be put on a ballot paper for people to vote on.

NotToScale

The high horse brigade wrote: »

We'll be back to the EU looking for financial aid when we get a United Ireland. This is what they expect and they have dealt with similar in the unification of Germany

I don't think that it's reasonable to compare Northern Ireland and East Germany. While there are some underlying socioeconomic issues in the North and it's reliant on public investment from the UK, it's not a communist command economy. There's also been decades of completely free trade between the Northern Ireland and the Republic and in terms of the their socioeconomic models, expectations of democracy, human rights, freedoms and do on they're actually both highly developed western democracies.

Reintegration of Germany was a HUGE task as you were basically trying to interconnect a very large Eastern Bloc communist country with a very definitely Western capitalist counterpart.

You'd have some political issues and tensions in Ireland with the loyalist community and some minor practical issues integrating systems or running them in parallel for some services but for the vast majority of things the two jurisdictions are extremely similar.

Northern Ireland could also possibly benefit and prosper from suddenly having the same economic and FDI friendly environment that the Republic has has evolved.

I find the assumption that Northern Ireland would simply be a massive economic drain somewhat naive and also services like the NI NHS aren't going to just suddenly stop. Health spending in the Republic is actually significantly higher per capita than the UK. So, assuming the NI system remains largely as is (very likely) it suddenly becomes more resourced. The issues with healthcare in the Republic are largely legacy structural ones, not financial. If anything we could end up rolling out something far more like the NHS, but potentially better.

You're also very unlikely to be looking at NI or Ireland generally being entirely cut off from the UK. In reality either as those links will be preserved in many ways and I really cannot see the UK turning into North Korean style isolationism. Sanity will have to return eventually and a practical, realistic arrangement will be arrived at. They can only go on attempting to shoot themselves in the feet for so long.