Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Joe_ Public

J Mysterio wrote: »

There should be no extension untill there is a vote on the deal, but Letwin has immediately obfustucated things. It would have been better to have fixed any loopholes in the Benn amendment than introduce Letwin.

Letwin seems to draw things out interminibly and give MPs the impression they can edit the agreement in all areas. The EU want the UK to vote on the deal, and instead they immediately decide against and vote to analyze all the legislation. There's a fundamental arrogance in how the HOC is operating in relation to the EU.

Its a fair point. Attaching a CU amendment at this stage seems a step too far. But bottom line is letwin was only necessary because the UK pm is a liar who cant be trusted. Same with benn. Otherwise a simple vote on deal could have been held by now and onto next stage. Letwin and other mps did what they had to do imo, no question about that.

Strazdas

Guy:Incognito wrote: »

Again though, why? Why are we jumping straight in to a united Ireland?

It's our very own Brexit . All the talk of how everything will be grand, lets just do it with no discussion of the downsides.

Varadkar has said repeatedly that Irish unification would have to be done very slowly - a two or three year build up to a referendum with meticulous planning for what happens if it is passed (the complete opposite of what happened with the Brexit shambles).

People are ignoring the elephant in the room that is Scottish independence though. If that happens, it is game over for NI. There's not a hope they could remain in the union long term if the UK is already breaking up. I predict they would be out within two or three years of Scottish independence.

The high horse brigade

Guy:Incognito wrote: »

Again though, why? Why are we jumping straight in to a united Ireland?

It's our very own Brexit . All the talk of how everything will be grand, lets just do it with no discussion of the downsides.

Nobody said we should rush into it without discussion and planning. It's going to happen, we need to plan or we'll end up in the same boat not knowing what we want

Joe_ Public

A very reasonable road for them to take is the citizens assembly path, or a variation of it, but it gets so little traction among commentators you cant see it ever being a serious proposition.

Guy:Incognito

Strazdas wrote: »

Varadkar has said repeatedly that Irish unification would have to be done very slowly - a two or three year build up to a referendum with meticulous planning for what happens if it is passed (the complete opposite of what happened with the Brexit shambles).

People are ignoring the elephant in the room that is Scottish independence though. If that happens, it is game over for NI. There's not a hope they could remain in the union long term if the UK is already breaking up. I predict they would be out within two or three years of Scottish independence.

Let NI go independent then too. See how they cope for a while as an actually country, then look at the possibility of unification if its what both countries want.

The high horse brigade wrote: »

Nobody said we should rush into it without discussion and planning. It's going to happen, we need to plan or we'll end up in the same boat not knowing what we want

All the talk is just relatively short term and as if its a straight forward vote and everyone agrees.

Capt'n Midnight

J Mysterio wrote: »

There's no way 'leave without a deal' should be put forward as an option.

It should. To split the Leave vote
Because otherwise it's an economic downturn which means no money for the NHS or pensions or the MoD. Also means immigration from Eastern Europe will be replaced by immigration from Asia. (see the stats from May's term in the Home Office )


Leave with no deal - recession

Leave with the Boris deal - recession in two years unless the UK caves in on to EU terms that allows services to have access to EU markets.

Remain - the only option that allows the foreign owned manufacturing companies to ramp up investment in the UK to former levels



Be interesting if any of the car makers have told the government that if there's a remain they'll announce multi-billion investments that the government can take credit for ?

Joe_ Public

Dominic Grieve has said he thinks no deal should be on ballot so it does have some remain mp support. Though im not sure can you have something on a ballot that hadnt got through the house and i seriously doubt it would ever agree to it.

FrancieBrady

Guy:Incognito wrote: »

Let NI go independent then too. See how they cope for a while as an actually country, then look at the possibility of unification if its what both countries want.

Why in hell would you do that. We have 100 year's of hard evidence that it cannot govern itself because of the artificially constructed bias and an ideology that is trenchant in blocking any concessions to the minority population.

Nonsense idea and wholly irresponsible.

RobMc59

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Why in hell would you do that. We have 100 year's of hard evidence that it cannot govern itself because of the artificially constructed bias and an ideology that is trenchant in blocking any concessions to the minority population.

Nonsense idea and wholly irresponsible.

Even some hardened unionists admit the demographics are changing and people`s political views are moving towards the centre-why can`t the moderate people of NI have the chance to run their own show?

NotToScale

I'm not sure a citizen's assembly would work in the UK right now. Ireland manages them fairly well because we've a very long tradition of proportional representation based democracy and consensus building politics is what defines the political system here.

The Westminster system is the complete reverse, being entirely about simple majority, grabbing power and holding it when you have it. It's polarised even during normal times but at present the society is utterly vexed with Brexit and unable to agree anything.

How would a citizen's assembly work in that context? You're unlikely to generate rational discussion and you would have endless critiques from the tabloids and probably tabloids even focusing on individual participants. Bear in mind you'd tabloids attacking judges and the legitimacy of the courts and of parliament.

I think realistically this has to be resolved by parliament before anyone goes down the route of trying to addresses the toxic divides that have emerged or been highlighted in British politics and society. That's a decade or more of work and it's not going to resolve Brexit.

If they reran any referendum, it would need to be sure of achieving a significant majority in favour of a sensible path or you're just back to this mess again.

They got the worst possible outcome in the last referendum - a narrow minority in favour of something that they never considered the practicalities of delivering and a question that was so broad that the answer keeps getting redefined. I would doubt very many people actually voted for a no deal Brexit. When you look back at the debates, there were all sorts of promises of business as usual and what looked like even staying in the customs union. That's been slowly but surely tipped into angrier and angrier nationalism, to the point that we are were we are.

FrancieBrady

RobMc59 wrote: »

Even some hardened unionists admit the demographics are changing and people`s political views are moving towards the centre-why can`t the moderate people of NI have the chance to run their own show?

Are LGBT people, moderates? Those who want parity of esteem and language rights?

Have they been trying?

What about Unionism in the last 3 years tells you that they are willing to put their 'veto' years behind them? Jeffery Donaldson specifically bemoaned a Unionist spurning the chance to have a veto only last week.
The place is in the care of an international agreement for a REASON.

Strazdas

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Dominic Grieve has said he thinks no deal should be on ballot so it does have some remain mp support. Though im not sure can you have something on a ballot that hadnt got through the house and i seriously doubt it would ever agree to it.

No, he's actually proposing Johnson's deal vs Remain on the ballot paper.

I don't think he could possibly stand over No Deal being one of the options.

Joe_ Public

Strazdas wrote: »

No, he's actually proposing Johnson's deal vs Remain on the ballot paper.

I don't think he could possibly stand over No Deal being one of the options.

I heard him say it on a bbc interview only a couple of weeks ago but not saying its his official position or he might reconsider it. But he definitely said it.

boggerman1

Tea Shock wrote: »

Only caught the last bit of it but sounds like Michael McDowell did a really good job of putting Andrew Bridgen in his place on the Marion Funnicsne show just now!

Bridgen displays all the signs of someone who has swallowed hook,line and sinker the so called benefits of the sunny uplands.the arrogance of the Tories that think the EU will still give in to them despite the evidence of the last 3 yrs.

Capt'n Midnight

Guy:Incognito wrote: »

Again though, why? Why are we jumping straight in to a united Ireland?

It's our very own Brexit . All the talk of how everything will be grand, lets just do it with no discussion of the downsides.

The bottom line is that the six counties can be weaned off the subvention if they get the same investment as down here. And with wages less than here it would get the investment. It wouldn't be easy but it is doable.


It's crazy to think that the A5 is more likely to get upgraded than the A6.

Letwin_Larry

RobMc59 wrote: »

Even some hardened unionists admit the demographics are changing and people`s political views are moving towards the centre-why can`t the moderate people of NI have the chance to run their own show?

i agree. let them off. most people on both of these islands would sigh a collective sigh of relief imo.

MrMusician18

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I have wondered whether irish support for the mercosur deal could be a price to pay for EU backing. Varadkar has said they wont back it without further reassurances so remains to be seen. I could be wrong, just a feeling i have.

Mercosur is dead, the Austrians killed it.

Capt'n Midnight

Guy:Incognito wrote: »

Let NI go independent then too. See how they cope for a while as an actually country, then look at the possibility of unification if its what both countries want.

But to do it fairly you'd have to let local areas decide which way to jump because you'd remove the €9Bn a year from the UK and setup a hard border.

Look at the maps of the Brexit vote. Or the elections.

South Down and everything west of the Bann apart from the coast, doesn't leave much of a hinterland for a city the size of Belfast.

Singapore on the Lagan ?

It's more likely that an independent DUP controlled state would become a theocracy with dissenting Catholics being forced to work in the salt mines, except the god fearing people of Carrickfergus wouldn't stand for that sort of thing.

Fr. Pat Noise

After all this is over Bertie reckons we will have a united Ireland sooner rather than later. So more trouble and strife in the north. Looks like we will have to build up the army and buy in weapons to keep the loyalists/unionists in check. There is no way they will go peacefully into United Ireland.

WomanSkirtFan8

Strazdas wrote: »

Varadkar has said repeatedly that Irish unification would have to be done very slowly - a two or three year build up to a referendum with meticulous planning for what happens if it is passed (the complete opposite of what happened with the Brexit shambles).

People are ignoring the elephant in the room that is Scottish independence though. If that happens, it is game over for NI. There's not a hope they could remain in the union long term if the UK is already breaking up. I predict they would be out within two or three years of Scottish independence.

Varadkar's right about a UI. It will have to be done extremely slowly and carefully as there is so much detail to be worked out with everyone up there.

Shelga

NotToScale wrote: »

I find the assumption that Northern Ireland would simply be a massive economic drain somewhat naive and also services like the NI NHS aren't going to just suddenly stop. Health spending in the Republic is actually significantly higher per capita than the UK. So, assuming the NI system remains largely as is (very likely) it suddenly becomes more resourced. The issues with healthcare in the Republic are largely legacy structural ones, not financial. If anything we could end up rolling out something far more like the NHS, but potentially better.

You're also very unlikely to be looking at NI or Ireland generally being entirely cut off from the UK. In reality either as those links will be preserved in many ways and I really cannot see the UK turning into North Korean style isolationism. Sanity will have to return eventually and a practical, realistic arrangement will be arrived at. They can only go on attempting to shoot themselves in the feet for so long.

I find your optimism that it would be anything other than an enormous economic drain incredibly naive! NI has been in the EU for over 4 decades, they've had peace for over 20 years and the region is still a complete basket case, economically. This surely has to be in large part because of two moronic main parties who are obsessed with tribalism and getting one up on each other, rather than looking out for their citizens in terms of developing infrastructure and making it a favourable place to do business. This isn't going to change any time soon- they can't even govern together. The fact that NI has been without a government for almost 3 years is disgraceful.

The only positive is that the cohort of people who identify as neither unionist nor nationalist is growing. When this chunk becomes big enough- in 20-30 years, maybe I'd give reunification more thought.

As it is, it looks like we may be forced into taking them on a lot sooner than that. In those circumstances, I would be hoping that any NI vote on reunification passes by over 55%, and that every single aspect is considered as carefully in advance as it possibly can be. Even then, I can't see myself being anything other than extremely reluctant.

The UK Brexiters should be ashamed of themselves- the selfishness of not giving Ireland a second thought honestly disgusts me.

volchitsa

Fr. Pat Noise wrote: »

After all this is over Bertie reckons we will have a united Ireland sooner rather than later. So more trouble and strife in the north. Looks like we will have to build up the army and buy in weapons to keep the loyalists/unionists in check. There is no way they will go peacefully into United Ireland.

I'm not so sure they matter that much any more - the days when loyalist paramilitaries were able to cause disruption like the loyalist strikes in the mid seventies is long gone. Without their state backers, they're no more powerful now than the latest IRA offshoots.

Same for possible terrorist activities: they were only ever able to carry those out thanks to serious help from supporters in the RUC and elsewhere. I don't believe they would have that support now, given how poorly the DUP has played the amazingly strong hand it was given in 2017. All the more so if the UK economy is seen to be suffering from Brexit, and if Scotland is restive.

Roanmore

Not exactly Brexit but semi related, is Same Sex Marriage and Abortion now legal in NI from tomorrow?

marno21

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

The bottom line is that the six counties can be weaned off the subvention if they get the same investment as down here. And with wages less than here it would get the investment. It wouldn't be easy but it is doable.


It's crazy to think that the A5 is more likely to get upgraded than the A6.

37km of A6 upgrades ongoing at present with 5km just open.

Meanwhile the A5 won't start until next year at the earliest, of course it's due yet another legal objection to slow it down even further.

Infini

volchitsa wrote: »

I'm not so sure they matter that much any more - the days when loyalist paramilitaries were able to cause disruption like the loyalist strikes in the mid seventies is long gone. Without their state backers, they're no more powerful now than the latest IRA offshoots.

Same for possible terrorist activities: they were only ever able to carry those out thanks to serious help from supporters in the RUC and elsewhere. I don't believe they would have that support now, given how poorly the DUP has played the amazingly strong hand it was given in 2017. All the more so if the UK economy is seen to be suffering from Brexit, and if Scotland is restive.

I'd agree with this the likes of the UDA and IRA aren't so much terroist/paramilitary organisations anymore but little more than organised criminal gangs hanging on to the old days. The IRA dont have the funds ilike then expecially after the whole September 11th thing and the UDA were only ever viable because of British State support and collusion. Neither side has the support of the wider communities either now they wont get anywhere near as effective as back then.

A United Ireland will ultimately be a result of anything that happens with Brexit unless it's cancelled and even then if Scotland becomes independent which is likely considering the way their MPs are being treated as well as the whole attitude of Westminster towards Scotland in general then the UK is finished all that will be left is the Republic of Scotland, United Ireland and the Kingdom of Wangland! (unless the welsh decide to nope out too!)

BorneTobyWilde

How can the likes of Boris argue that the people should be the ones to decide, yet argue too against letting them decide now the facts are known.
If there is a another peoples vote then the whole of N.I AND Scotland need to this time break themselves away from Emmerdale and go out and vote.

is_that_so

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Mercosur is dead, the Austrians killed it.

Actually unfinished, no final text yet but they did vote to reject the draft. Could be a couple of years at least before a final text goes anywhere near a vote.

Joe_ Public

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

How can the likes of Boris argue that the people should be the ones to decide, yet argue too against letting them decide now the facts are known.
If there is a another peoples vote then the whole of N.I AND Scotland need to this time break themselves away from Emmerdale and go out and vote.

Certainly struck me as a bit odd to hear tory after tory bang on about the "will of The People" in the hoc yesterday as a great many people expressed their frustration only a few metres away outside. They have basically subsumed "the people" as their trademark, as if they speak for everybody, the whole United kingdom, not just the 17m who voted leave. "The People" want it done, apparently, so it must be done.

RobMc59

How can johnson and co justify his toxic approach to brexit when things like this are happening as a result:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-no-deal-fruit-picking-apples-national-farmers-union-eu-workers-harvest-a9163781.html

Joe_ Public

RobMc59 wrote: »

How can johnson and co justify his toxic approach to brexit when things like this are happening as a result:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-no-deal-fruit-picking-apples-national-farmers-union-eu-workers-harvest-a9163781.html

If thats the damage it does to fruit picking, imagine the long term damage it'll do to the nhs.