Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Enzokk

This is an interesting thread of the week ahead and what the UK Government is facing,

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1185989844281020418?s=20

Seems that the second vote on the deal will not be allowed to happen because the government screwed up on Saturday by not bringing it forward for a division and so it was just nodded through. That means it cannot be brought back for a second vote as it is the same deal as before. It is an interesting thread and it seems we could be in for more fun and maneuvers from both sides.

We will have to see how it pans out but it seems like a crucial amendment, if it is brought forward, is one calling for an all UK customs union. Labour and the opposition would support this and the DUP as well. If it is passed then Johnson would have to oppose his own deal or at the very least he will have to face down the ERG who you would think not support that. Also, Johnson would need an extension to ask the EU for the all-UK customs union and I don't see him doing that.

We still have the Queens Speech to get through as well and Johnson could lose that vote. That was supposed to happen tomorrow and Tuesday but who knows what will happen with that.

54and56

54and56 wrote: »

Not sure about Brazillians in Tuam but I knowba very large Indian IT support services company here who have very talented people all of whom are earning a multiple of minimum wage!! There's nothing exploitative about their terms of employment!!

Correct, they're highly skilled, but being imported at the expense of training locals.
That is the point I'm making, growth at any cost.

Joe_ Public

Enzokk wrote: »

This is an interesting thread of the week ahead and what the UK Government is facing,

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1185989844281020418?s=20

Seems that the second vote on the deal will not be allowed to happen because the government screwed up on Saturday by not bringing it forward for a division and so it was just nodded through. That means it cannot be brought back for a second vote as it is the same deal as before. It is an interesting thread and it seems we could be in for more fun and maneuvers from both sides.

We will have to see how it pans out but it seems like a crucial amendment, if it is brought forward, is one calling for an all UK customs union. Labour and the opposition would support this and the DUP as well. If it is passed then Johnson would have to oppose his own deal or at the very least he will have to face down the ERG who you would think not support that. Also, Johnson would need an extension to ask the EU for the all-UK customs union and I don't see him doing that.

We still have the Queens Speech to get through as well and Johnson could lose that vote. That was supposed to happen tomorrow and Tuesday but who knows what will happen with that.

Good thread that. But it is hurting my head! Stuff about the CU just sounds mad but seems it could work as a total bill wrecker, maybe even lead to gov voting against their own bill. More madness awaits for sure...

Capt'n Midnight

prawnsambo wrote: »

A lot of them are put up on site. Or rent accommodation nearby. The problem for UK workers is that they would have to commute because they have homes in the UK. And they're not prepared to incur the extra cost or leave their families for protracted periods.

This from last year explains why the Eastern European's weren't coming then.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-44230865

99% of seasonal workers on British farms come from Eastern Europe. Two-thirds of these come from Romania and Bulgaria.
...
We used to take the crème de la crème. Now, we are scraping the barrel."

Spanish Eyes

Would ROI really welcome a UI?

I doubt it given the polarity of things up North. Does ROI really need to take that on with no realistic benefit?

Well if there is a benefit, tell me now.

Igotadose

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Good thread that. But it is hurting my head! Stuff about the CU just sounds mad but seems it could work as a total bill wrecker, maybe even lead to gov voting against their own bill. More madness awaits for sure...

Threadreader link: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1185989844281020418.html

UK needs a written constitution. What madness, the number of corners, dark alleys and potholes their parliament must stumble through to get *anything* done.

Guy:Incognito

Deleted User wrote: »

Nor is working as a bricklayer at 70, using this logic most people will die of physical working. Just because someone is physically able to work, shouldn't mean they must.

Really need to evaluate what life is about as it seems being part of the machine is all that matters to many.

Bricklayers arent really working till 65 anyway so its hardly the best comparison.

Whats your actual solution to people receiving everything back in pension that they paid in tax? What do we use to run the country?

murphaph

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Correct, they're highly skilled, but being imported at the expense of training locals.
That is the point I'm making, growth at any cost.

Locals who are capable of such jobs are already doing them. At a certain point you run out of people capable of doing the technical jobs and you either import them from abroad or stop growing. Not everyone is capable of doing these jobs no matter how much you spend on training.

54and56

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Nor is working as a bricklayer at 70, using this logic most people will die of physical working. Just because someone is physically able to work, shouldn't mean they must.

Really need to evaluate what life is about as it seems being part of the machine is all that matters to many.

People will increasingly have multiple different careers throughout their lives. The original retirement age was brought in because the average lifespan was 2 years older.

If the average lifespan increases to 95 and we retain 65 as the mandatory retirement age that places a huge burden on people to save enough in 45 years of employment to live another 30 years.

If we live to 95 why not work to 85 or 90? What's the point of spending 20 or 30 years sitting around (bar the odd trip here and there) waiting to die. That's my definition of a nightmare.

Why do you think Warren Buffett works every day in his late 80's and his Chairman Charlie Munger does the same aged 92? Because they need the money?

I've no objection to someone wanting to retire at 65 of they want to sit around watching daytime TV for a few decades and they have put away enough cash to fund that but personally I want to stay in the game as long as I can and if that means I end up moving away from my current career into roles more suited to my ability at that age then I'm 100% up for that so long as I'm interacting with people and being productive.

No one expects a 70 year old to work as a bricklayer just as no one expects a 45 year old to work as a professional footballer but if you choose a career which is dependent on physical strength you probably need to accept it's not going to be a lifelong career and you will need to plan what your 2nd career will be eg training bricklayers, working as a sales advisor or delivery driver for a builders providers, retraining for something completely new eg taxi driver or driving instructor etc

NotToScale

Deleted User wrote: »

Nor is working as a bricklayer at 70, using this logic most people will die of physical working. Just because someone is physically able to work, shouldn't mean they must.

Really need to evaluate what life is about as it seems being part of the machine is all that matters to many.

The other issue with that is 65 is generally a 'good average' when you get beyond that the health issues for some start cropping up sooner than others. You've got some people who are living well into their 80s. So, I would suspect if we keep cracking up the retirement age, we're going to end up with a lot of people on disability benefits and being unable to claim / losing their pensions because they became ill in their 60s.

There's a lot of problems being stored up for my generation in a few decades time.

Anyway, it's another topic - but I do think we're all getting a bit ridiculous about this. Something has to give as we're not machines. My own mom for example, didn't make it more than 1 year beyond retirement and was not in great shape in her 60s and while many people are definitely living into their 80s and beyond and are quite fit, active and healthy it's not a universal thing.

The UK risks the same fate as Japan (only without the tech and industrial base behind it) - simmering polite xenophobia / fear of immigration, low birth rates and a rapidly ageing population that is struggling to find carers. At least Japan has robots! I'm not quite sure what the UK plans to do.

The likes of IDS seem to ignore the biological reality of ageing and just see humans as 'production units'.

prawnsambo

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

This from last year explains why the Eastern European's weren't coming then.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-44230865

You probably didn't intend it, but that quote seemed to imply that the Bulgarians and Romanians were the scrapings of the barrel. It actually meant that there were so few applying that they were getting poorly experienced applicants and very few even of them. And as we all knew, brexit (falling sterling and uncertainty about visas etc.) is the cause.

Capt'n Midnight

prawnsambo wrote: »

You probably didn't intend it, but that quote seemed to imply that the Bulgarians and Romanians were the scrapings of the barrel. It actually meant that there were so few applying that they were getting poorly experienced applicants and very few even of them. And as we all knew, brexit (falling sterling and uncertainty about visas etc.) is the cause.

They were getting the best Romanians

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-44230865

"We used to have queues outside our office in Bucharest. Thirty to 40 people would come a day. Now, on a good day, it's a handful. We used to take the crème de la crème. Now, we are scraping the barrel."

...
She says she now considers those that, "have two hands and two legs, and stand a 50% chance of making it".

Guy:Incognito

Guy:Incognito wrote: »

Bricklayers arent really working till 65 anyway so its hardly the best comparison.

Whats your actual solution to people receiving everything back in pension that they paid in tax? What do we use to run the country?

You treat money as a lubricant, rather than a store of wealth that flows to the top.

Imreoir2

Shelga wrote: »

I find your optimism that it would be anything other than an enormous economic drain incredibly naive! NI has been in the EU for over 4 decades, they've had peace for over 20 years and the region is still a complete basket case, economically. This surely has to be in large part because of two moronic main parties who are obsessed with tribalism and getting one up on each other, rather than looking out for their citizens in terms of developing infrastructure and making it a favourable place to do business. This isn't going to change any time soon- they can't even govern together. The fact that NI has been without a government for almost 3 years is disgraceful.

I don't think so. Prosperity is not a Green vs Orange issue. Neither side is going out of their way to make NI poorer (except in relation to Brexit of course). The reality is that NI is a peripheral region of the UK and British economic policy has largely abandoned its regions. NI is not the only poor underdeveloped region of the UK. The assembly does not have the economic levers to influence the prosperity of NI and British policy, focused as it is on the South East of England and the City of London does nothing for them. Before Brexit came along both sides were willing to work together in the economic sphere. The island is a single unit when it comes to tourism and that model has been successful. Even the DUP were on board to diverge from British policy and align with the rest of the island on the corporate tax rate in the hope of stimulating inward investment, but Stormont did not have the power to do it themselves and the proposal was ignored by London.

RobMc59

Deleted User wrote: »

So do you think that the exploitation of cheap foreign labour is a good idea!
Not really an EU thing, more a result of globalisation and the exploitation that it has allowed.

As far as I`m aware,the majority of pickers and farm owners are both happy with the arrangement-the thing that is causing the problem is the uncertainty for the pickers in regard to whether they will be allowed in.

This is a good read from Lewis Goodall. There could be unprecedented bedlam in the HoC this week. Watch out for any Customs Union related events, especially with the uncoupled DUP votes floating around in a vacuum.


https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1185989844281020418?s=20

Imreoir2

Deleted User wrote: »

Correct, they're highly skilled, but being imported at the expense of training locals.
That is the point I'm making, growth at any cost.

What do you mean at the expense of training locals? What is stopping locals from getting into that industry if they want to? The problem is a lack of locals interested in working in that sector, that is why labour has to be brought in.

4068ac1elhodqr

Maybe the DUP can be bought with a land connection to (indy) New Alba:
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/bridge-linking-northern-ireland-and-scotland-should-not-be-dismissed-varadkar-1.4056840
Just don't try taking a Honda50 across those very deep waters, during one of the many Atlantic storms.

Anyhoe, just added 'UK To Leave The EU On/Before 31/10/19? - UK Brexit Date' on the weekly accumulator bet @3.5.
It's now or never.

Imreoir2

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Would ROI really welcome a UI?

I doubt it given the polarity of things up North. Does ROI really need to take that on with no realistic benefit?

Well if there is a benefit, tell me now.

NI being a basket case is a drain on our economey. The benefit of peace and the development of the all-island economey has benefited us, the further development of the all-island economey and the elimination of the massive waste inherent in having two economic systems on one small island will also benefit us.

briany

Deleted User wrote: »

This is a good read from Lewis Goodall. There could be unprecedented bedlam in the HoC this week.

God, considering what we've seen from the HoC so far, I shudder to think what 'unprecedented bedlam' might look like! :eek::eek::eek:

Strazdas

Deleted User wrote: »

This is a good read from Lewis Goodall. There could be unprecedented bedlam in the HoC this week. Watch out for any Customs Union related events, especially with the uncoupled DUP votes floating around in a vacuum.


https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1185989844281020418?s=20

Very messy : Goodall thinks it was a mistake for Johnson not to hold a vote on the deal of some description yesterday.

The talk of a customs union amendment seems purely be a wrecking tactic by the opposition. They must know there's not a hope in hell the EU will reopen negotiations with the UK.

road_high

Imreoir2 wrote: »

NI being a basket case is a drain on our economey. The benefit of peace and the development of the all-island economey has benefited us, the further development of the all-island economey and the elimination of the massive waste inherent in having two economic systems on one small island will also benefit us.

The south benefitted massively from the peace process as it was part of a massive economic offensive focused on exports and attracting all possible investments- the north by contrast is stagnant and ruderless with no economic direction or anything much to build on- they always wait for a few crumbs from London rather than any local dynamism or initiative. Over dependence on welfare and state activity has stifled all initiative really. The north is an utter basket case economically now with a deeply ingrained dependency culture (both welfare and state employment). It’ll take massive strides to correct this if possible at all

LeinsterDub

[Deleted User] wrote: »

This is a good read from Lewis Goodall. There could be unprecedented bedlam in the HoC this week. Watch out for any Customs Union related events, especially with the uncoupled DUP votes floating around in a vacuum.


https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1185989844281020418?s=20

Was just going to post this. I'll be tuned to LBC all week!

Water John

Don't know how the EU would react to being asked for what is basically, a softer Brexit. They wouldn't be conceding anything.
On the other side Johnson won't do it, even if instructed by Parliament.

Kermit.de.frog

This would all end tomorrow in the HoC if the EU explicitly said they will not grant an extension.

So long as the EU is not going to block an extension or it seems likely they won't remainers will continue playing games and engaging in obstruction.

They have a deal tirelessly negotiated, people voted to leave, they should move on with it now.

listermint

Imreoir2 wrote: »

What do you mean at the expense of training locals? What is stopping locals from getting into that industry if they want to? The problem is a lack of locals interested in working in that sector, that is why labour has to be brought in.

I wouldn't bother .

He's a moving goal post.

First it's Indians getting all the jobs because theyre underpaid. Then when he finds out they're ionn over 70 grand a year it's they are taking jobs from locals.

Both equally as nonsense and non factual view points.

As I said people who hold these views never met this figment of their imagination in their lives and have no first hand experience of it.

Made up bogey man

listermint

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

This would all end tomorrow in the HoC if the EU explicitly said they will not grant an extension.

So long as the EU is not going to block an extension or it seems likely they won't remainers will continue playing games and engaging in obstruction.

They have a deal tirelessly negotiated, people voted to leave, they should move on with it now.

No they shouldn't.

They have a goal and they should stick to it. Fair play to them.

And frankly they are in the majority in the country they have no right to give up now nor should they . Nor should folks like yourself deride them for it.

Water John

Remainers etc are not playing games. They are fighting for the future direction of their country, the same as the Brexiteer side. It's a battle for the heart of the nation. People should be glad that, this time, it's being done without blood being spilt.
A bit of drama in the HOC I can live with.

Strazdas

Water John wrote: »

Don't know how the EU would react to being asked for what is basically, a softer Brexit. They wouldn't be conceding anything.
On the other side Johnson won't do it, even if instructed by Parliament.

If it came from the current Tory government, badly. There's not a chance they are going to negotiate anything more with Johnson....it would be farcical.

I suspect Labour are opting for this as a stalling tactic and to mess Johnson around.

Strazdas

Strazdas wrote: »

Very messy : Goodall thinks it was a mistake for Johnson not to hold a vote on the deal of some description yesterday.

The talk of a customs union amendment seems purely be a wrecking tactic by the opposition. They must know there's not a hope in hell the EU will reopen negotiations with the UK.

Not sure if its a case of reopening negotiations. As Water John says above its a softer Brexit, so its a pivot back towards what the EU (and Ireland) would like. Remain though would be liked most of all IMO.