Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

farmchoice

Water John wrote: »

Yes, they all had it down to 1 or 2 either way on Sat. He lost by 16. I know a few incl Letwin will vote for WA.
Now we're to believe on Sunday he has the numbers. Lb are working on the waverers not throwing them out of the Party.

I suspect he'll end up going for a GE in a simple vote with the support of the SNP. He'll prefer that to having a Ref attached to the WA.

i believe there were 6 labour rebels up 1 on the previous WA vote, all the talk in the run up to Saturday was 16+ labour rebels.


i have been saying here all week, no way, no hope, it wont be half of that.

for me this is a passing interest, nothing more, i live on the west coast of Ireland i have a full time job and a wife and kids i have little time for this and yet it was blindingly obvious to me that there would be no more than 8 labour rebels.
how did i know this, how did i come to this brilliant insight? i looked back at when this exact same thing had happened 3 times previously in the past 10 months. anyone who tells you oh its completely different this time, different deal, different situation hasn't a clue, not a notion about what has happened in the last 12 months.
in their defence they are just listening to what they are hearing from what on the face of it are reputable journalists commentators.

Enzokk

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I dont fully understand that to be honest. Why are referring to it as a meaningful vote if its purely indicative? From what i can gather if he passes it he can then cancel extension request unless they pass another amendment stopping it. Which they probably can anyway so i dont know how far any of this is going to get this week.

It was supposed to be a "meaningful vote" on Saturday, but the Letwin amendment changed that. So now there is a new procedure to be followed before the same vote can happen. Some were skeptical that Johnson would get the legislation done in time even if he won the vote on Saturday. Now he has to get the legislation done first before his vote.

Parliament is sovereign and can decide what happens, usually a PM has a majority so he guides parliament the way he wants. Now Johnson doesn't so he gets pulled in the direction of the majority.

johnnyskeleton

theological wrote: »

I couldn't agree with this more. The principle of losers consent has been undermined. It is required for democracy to function.

I had never heard the phrase "losers consent" before Brexit. But I can see how a theory could run that if you believe in democracy, if you lose a vote which was freely and fairly carries out then you should respect the result.

I dont think this means that if the vote goes against you that you change your entire politicial view e.g. the Republicans won so now Im a Republican. Nor does it stop you criticising how an election was fought - indeed if there were a real doctrine of losers consent, it would be contingent on the decision being valid.

Finally, if losers consent applies to the brexit referendum result, then it should also apply to each and every constituency referendum. UKIP ran in most constituencies and they failed in all of them. Surely under the doctrine of losers consent they should accept that there is no appetite for their form of xenophobic little England no deal brexit?

Instead of parliamentarians respectfully deferring to the referendum result and implementing it MPs have been hell bent on undermining it.

They triggered art 50 and are committed to doing what is right for their individual constituents. That is a fairly respectful way of trying to achieve Brexit without destroying the rest of the country.

f MPs aren't willing to implement this result then the UK needs a new parliament that reflects the people's wish on this issue.

Maybe so. But what happens if the people vote the same group back in, more or less, or even a greater remain majority? Why would that be legitimate but the current parliament is not?

The reason Corbyn won't call an election or keeps the government and parliament hostage with the Fixed Term Parliament Act (which ought to be repealed when Johnson has a majority) is because he will lose very badly in an election to the Tories and the clearer positioned Lib Dems. I reckon Johnson will have a comfortable majority in this scenario.

There is some truth in this. However, Johnson can call a vote of no confidence in the government and trigger an election. Or he could get an election if he provided the necessary extension guarantee so that the UK doesnt slip out on a no deal while the campaign is being run.

If Johnson was really in charge, he could have an election called today if he wanted. But hes the leader of a minority party and doesnt have a majority in the HoC for anything

looksee

GM228 wrote: »

Not sure if this has already been posted or mentioned previously, but well worth reading this thread in relation to alleged electoral offences involving the Vote Leave campaign:-

https://twitter.com/IanCLucas/status/1186010245061103618?s=19

https://twitter.com/IanCLucas/status/1185962901368168449?s=19

That is interesting and I was not aware of it, but at a simpler level the referendum argument was based on lies on the leave side - they admitted it the day after the referendum - and the referendum was never a binding referendum anyway. Why have these two facts never been raised by the remain MPs? Why has there not been a legal challenge?

By advertising the referendum as an advisory poll, then treating it as an official and binding referendum, in spite of the shortcomings of the way it was run, large numbers of the electorate were effectively disenfranchised. How has it been allowed to get this far with no challenge to its legality?

Enzokk

https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1186197513717587969?s=20

And this could be a reason why the government just wanted the WAB nodded through, because it will struggle once it gets scrutinized. It is going to be a interesting week, whatever happens. This could be the week that Brexit dies or where it gets a shot in the arm.

Igotadose

Enzokk wrote: »

https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1186197164902551553?s=20

And this could be a reason why the government just wanted the WAB nodded through, because it will struggle once it gets scrutinized. It is going to be a interesting week, whatever happens. This could be the week that Brexit dies or where it gets a shot in the arm.

Link 404

Enzokk

looksee wrote: »

That is interesting and I was not aware of it, but at a simpler level the referendum argument was based on lies on the leave side - they admitted it the day after the referendum - and the referendum was never a binding referendum anyway. Why have these two facts never been raised by the remain MPs? Why has there not been a legal challenge?

By advertising the referendum as an advisory poll, then treating it as an official and binding referendum, in spite of the shortcomings of the way it was run, large numbers of the electorate were effectively disenfranchised. How has it been allowed to get this far with no challenge to its legality?

Because legally the courts see the referendum as advisory, no matter what the politicians say. They could stop Brexit tomorrow and nobody could take them to court to have them implement the result because it was advisory only.

I know, politicians are treating it as binding but legally it isn't, up is down and black is white. That is another reason why Cameron will go down as the worst PM ever, because he made such a hash of the referendum he allowed the chaos of the last 3 years and May and Johnson to be leaders. He owns it all, and the sickening thing is other than very few voices in his own party and UKIP, nobody was even thinking about the EU.

Enzokk

Igotadose wrote: »

Link 404

Try this?

https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1186199265250594816?s=20

Edited the original to hopefully work as well.

BarryD2

Enzokk wrote: »

Parliament is sovereign and can decide what happens, usually a PM has a majority so he guides parliament the way he wants. Now Johnson doesn't so he gets pulled in the direction of the majority.

And I guess what will happen depends on the mood of said parliament. If there is a mood that the matter has gone on too long and should be resolved now, the MPs will hold their noses and vote all through quickly. If the mood is that only a GE will resolve the matter, then the MPs will continue to vacillate and the EU will extend to allow for same.

If Johnson is as confident of his vote as he says he is, he should have no problem with an extension for a GE as going by his reckoning, the Tories will win handsomely.

LeinsterDub

There is something very 1984 about this. Double speak at its finest

https://twitter.com/edmorrish/status/1186199806353403904

trellheim

THeres a couple of things in play

One - A deal is not a done deal until parliament ratifies - this is where Theresa May always fell . Currently parliament are refusing to ratify until they see the laws to be passed to make it a reality.

Two - see links above for scary Henry VIII stuff. BUT the real fear is that of amendments - any legislation can have an amendment tabled " this house approves this deal"

AMENDMENT NO 1 ... add after the phrase "this deal" "..and commits to a Customs Union with the European Union" . Amendments are like anything in parliament - anyone can add them... up to the speaker to select which ones get picked - see Oliver Letwin etc ... and they get voted on.

The Tories do NOT have a majority here and can be outvoted especially if the DUP are pissed off . Also remember Rory stewart led the voting for the CU indicative vote ( remember that ? ) and still commands a lot of support.

farmchoice

there is an article in the telegraph today (cant link it paywall) claiming that it is lord Pannick (gina miller's barrister) who is the brains behind the letwin amendment.
this makes a lot of sense because letwin never struck me as shape enough to come up something as smart as this.

Igotadose

farmchoice wrote: »

there is an article in the telegraph today (cant link it paywall) claiming that it is lord Pannick (gina miller's barrister) who is the brains behind the letwin amendment.
this makes a lot of sense because letwin never struck me as shape enough to come up something as smart as this.

Interesting, but so what? The amendment's been approved. Gina Miller's team has played chess versus seagull checkers played by HMG.

trellheim

there is an article in the telegraph today (cant link it paywall) claiming that it is lord Pannick (gina miller's barrister) who is the brains behind the letwin amendment.
this makes a lot of sense because letwin never struck me as shape enough to come up something as smart as this.

Brains or not it still had to get a majority in the Commons

looksee

Enzokk wrote: »

Because legally the courts see the referendum as advisory, no matter what the politicians say. They could stop Brexit tomorrow and nobody could take them to court to have them implement the result because it was advisory only.

I know, politicians are treating it as binding but legally it isn't, up is down and black is white. That is another reason why Cameron will go down as the worst PM ever, because he made such a hash of the referendum he allowed the chaos of the last 3 years and May and Johnson to be leaders. He owns it all, and the sickening thing is other than very few voices in his own party and UKIP, nobody was even thinking about the EU.

Thank you, that makes sense, in terms of the legality. However there is still the question of why the remain MPs are not challenging the actions of the Government and Leave MPs. They are reacting to events as they unfold, but I don't recall any of them standing up and saying that the whole 'will of the people' argument is nonsense.

If the government had announced that as a result of an opinion poll in the Telegraph they were going to turn the economy of the UK upside down because it was the 'will of the people' I doubt they would have got any traction, but this referendum was much the same thing.

At this stage I do agree that the UK has to go, the situation is toxic, but it would be much better if they could stay. As a (long time away) Brit, I am very sad to see the state they have got themselves into, and I reluctantly can see broadly how they got there.

Lewis Goodall thinks the coming weeks events could end up with a general election.


https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1186202739153494017?s=20

farmchoice

Igotadose wrote: »

Interesting, but so what? The amendment's been approved. Gina Miller's team has played chess versus seagull checkers played by HMG.

ya a post of no great import i just found it interesting, i suppose it highlights the kind of brains working behind the scenes on this on the remain side.
when the history of this come s to be written, this i feel will be the story.
how against all the odds a collection of sharp legal minds, Millar, grieve, Benn, Cherry and some others managed to thwart Brexit. And how on the other side a collection of ideological MP's got so hamstrung by their position they managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.......and of course the DUP

Igotadose

farmchoice wrote: »

ya a post of no great import i just found it interesting, i suppose it highlights the kind of brains working behind the scenes on this on the remain side.
when the history of this come s to be written, this i feel will be the story.
how against all the odds a collection of sharp legal minds, Millar, grieve, Benn, Cherry and some others managed to thwart Brexit. And how on the other side a collection of ideological MP's got so hamstrung by their position they managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.......and of course the DUP

If there'd been some sharp political minds campaigning for Remain, we'd have had this sorted long ago. Once the 2017 GE was done, it was clear to me there was an opportunity for strong Remain leadership to undo the clusterf*ck.

farmchoice

Igotadose wrote: »

If there'd been some sharp political minds campaigning for Remain, we'd have had this sorted long ago. Once the 2017 GE was done, it was clear to me there was an opportunity for strong Remain leadership to undo the clusterf*ck.

i didn't say sharp political minds i said sharp legal minds. there was a complete absence of shape political minds at the front of the opposition, in fact corbyn and the labour leadership were about as far away from sharp on this subject as you could get.
indeed the shape legal minds i mentioned previously were by and large battling both the government and the opposition most of the time.

edit: apologies i slightly mid read your post you didn't suggest i said sharp political minds, i think we are probably in agreement.

Purgative

Just listened to a DUP MP on Pat Kenny. Now I can take or leave Kenny but he seemed really on the ball today.


PK - Surely with a border down the Irish Sea you'd be as well choosing Remain.

DUP - Didn't work so well for Greece and Portugal has really high unemployment.

PK - But we're not Portugal or Greece.

DUP - No we'll see what they come up with.

PK - Go back to the EU? (Incredulous)

DUP - See what they come up with in the UK


FFS more unicorns

devnull

https://twitter.com/DKShrewsbury/status/1185990368795463680

Tory MP Daniel Kawczynski colluding with foreign government and undermining sovereignty again.

trellheim

DUP - See what they come up with in the UK

Since the EU let them have a little bit of compromise, to the DUP mind it stands to reason a little push will get them what they want.

FrancieBrady

trellheim wrote: »

Since the EU let them have a little bit of compromise, to the DUP mind it stands to reason a little push will get them what they want.

They supported Boris going back for more and ended up worse off.

Will they never learn on a morning the world is moving on without them again on LGBT and Same Sex Marriage rights.

0gac3yjefb5sv7

Sorry to hijack the thread but can anyone advise what is the most likely outcome now? Another extension? Referendum? Or just bill passed and Brexit goes ahead on 31st Oct.

trellheim

1. NI first - Abortion and same-sex marriage becomes legal at midnight tonight unless the DUP cave and Sinn Fein agree to form an Exec . Thats your background music


2. Commons : ruling on MV - widely held that Bercow wont let it go
3. Commons - PM introduces legislation to implement WA - it will be amendable and thus open to messing

4. EU - Boris has requested an extension - EU holding fire for the next few days to see how it plays they can extend right up until 31 October.

Expect serious messing over the next fortnight

Letwin_Larry

Purgative wrote: »

Just listened to a DUP MP on Pat Kenny. Now I can take or leave Kenny but he seemed really on the ball today.


PK - Surely with a border down the Irish Sea you'd be as well choosing Remain.

DUP - Didn't work so well for Greece and Portugal has really high unemployment.

PK - But we're not Portugal or Greece.

DUP - No we'll see what they come up with.

PK - Go back to the EU? (Incredulous)

DUP - See what they come up with in the UK


FFS more unicorns

i worked in sales for many years, and was quite good at it if i say so myself.

one thing a good salesperson learns very quickly is, if you wish to close a sale and what salesperson does not i hear you ask, then it's best not to give the customer too much choice.
sounds counter-intuitive, but too much choice confuses people. give them a bit of choice, so they feel they are in control of the decision making process, but allowing the customer an endless array of options will lead to confusion, indecision, exhaustion, frustration and failure.

sound familiar?

ancapailldorcha

devnull wrote: »

https://twitter.com/DKShrewsbury/status/1185990368795463680

Tory MP Daniel Kawczynski colluding with foreign government and undermining sovereignty again.

That is literally treason but I suppose we can just add it to the pile of Brexit oxymorons:

• Embrace free trade by leaving the world's biggest single market
• Restore Sovereignty of Parliament by proroguing Parliament
• Free the UK from onerous EU regulations by replicating said regulations in the Great Withdrawal bill
• Restore the primacy of the UK supreme court and then undermine said court
• Reduce immigration by ending freedom of movement despite the fact that most migrants enter via the venerated Australian-style points system from outside the EU
• Negotiate great trade deals by decimating national diplomatic leverage
• Appoint the "Details guy" who doesn't know how important the Dover-Calais ferry route is to UK-EU trade
• Fix the border in Northern Ireland by proposing a backstop that is then rejected
• Promise additional funding to the NHS as the result of disaster capitalism designed to destroy the NHS
• Maintain the NI-UK union by aligning Belfast towards Dublin and Brussels and further from London
• Help farmers and fishermen by advocating WTO trading which means tariffs on their imports and exports
• Collude with foreign powers in order to thwart the will of the directly elected Parliament

Zubeneschamali

Pheonix10 wrote: »

Sorry to hijack the thread but can anyone advise what is the most likely outcome now? Another extension? Referendum? Or just bill passed and Brexit goes ahead on 31st Oct.

Extension. Johnson has requested it, the EU are considering it.

There isn't time for the HoC to scrutinize and pass all the associated legislation by Oct 31st - the Government have been hiding the draft legislation for over a year, it is guaranteed to be absolutely horrible when it is published, and will be debated and amended for weeks.

The Euro parliament also needs to approve the deal, and will take a minimum of a few weeks.

Jan 31st is probably reasonable if everyone thinks the deal as proposed is OK, but I strongly doubt that, and an election or new referendum are quite likely before any deal is done.

Strazdas

Purgative wrote: »

Just listened to a DUP MP on Pat Kenny. Now I can take or leave Kenny but he seemed really on the ball today.


PK - Surely with a border down the Irish Sea you'd be as well choosing Remain.

DUP - Didn't work so well for Greece and Portugal has really high unemployment.

PK - But we're not Portugal or Greece.

DUP - No we'll see what they come up with.

PK - Go back to the EU? (Incredulous)

DUP - See what they come up with in the UK


FFS more unicorns

Support for the EU is actually very strong in Portugal and Greece. This guy has obviously been reading Daily Telegraph opinion pieces.

trellheim

As far as I can tell Steve Barclay moved the motion on Saturday

https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2019-10-19/debates/48144FF8-0E08-455A-8175-1EB64918D29E/EuropeanUnion(Withdrawal)Acts

"I beg to move" .


( long read but worth it. )