Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Tea Shock

I don't know why they're talking on Sky News about sitting again on Saturday, maybe even Sunday, maybe thru the night if they have to.

It's normal working hours now, more than half the day is gone and they've done fooc all yet!

Hurrache

Hurrache wrote: »

I agree on the last statement, their support will lap it up.

Well as we all knew...
https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1186269267471323141

Duane Dibbley

BarryD2 wrote: »

Try contrasting the small mobs of angry right wing headbangers with the massive marches of people calling for a different approach. This minority Tory government is not only flying in the face of it's own citizens but also it's own parliament. It's the ultimate tail wagging the dog.

Can you expand on this?

Nody

Found this by random but it really fits with UK's reliance on traditions after all and they all do have a beginning...

https://twitter.com/julianpopov/status/1185664196178042880

Kermit.de.frog

BarryD2 wrote: »

Try contrasting the small mobs of angry right wing headbangers with the massive marches of people calling for a different approach.

The reason leavers are not marching like that is because they won. And they rightly expect the result will be carried out.

Remainers are desperate, they don't accept the result and hence they are more motivated.

jimmycrackcorm

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Elmer Brok was on rte yesterday saying very clearly they want to see a major development - he specifically mentioned referendum at least 3 or 4 times - so seems they are waiting a few days to see what emerges before deciding if short or long extension is required. Brok is supposedly close to merkel which is why what he says might be significant.

Just as we've known for so long that a working deal required a sea border, we all know that ultimately the correct way to resolve this is to now put the clear cut options to the people to vote in order of preference.

A GE is not a democratic way to resolve this, as witnessed in the last by-election where the combined leave vote was higher than remain yet it was a lib-dem remainer that won because of a split tory / BP vote.

The FPTP voting system is clearly unfit to represent people's wishes whether its to remain or leave.

Christy42

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The reason leavers are not marching like that is because they won. And they rightly expect the result will be carried out.

Remainers are desperate, they don't accept the result and hence they are more motivated.

I mean the leave MPs voted against May's deal which would have pulled them out of the EU. And many leavers were against it in spite of it honouring the result. Others seem to be pro leave but against no deal. Some seem in favour of this current deal. Quite frankly it seems to be a mess. Maybe they should ask people what they meant by leave since the leavers are putting in as much effort blocking the UK from leaving the EU as the remainers are!

I feel like the issue is they all seem to expect their wishes to be carried out except they all have different wishes!

jimmycrackcorm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The reason leavers are not marching like that is because they won. And they rightly expect the result will be carried out.

Remainers are desperate, they don't accept the result and hence they are more motivated.

If they won then why didn't the ERG accept May's deal and the UK would have left by now.

Should the ERG / TM /DUP not be blamed for blocking Brexit?

Nody

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The reason leavers are not marching like that is because they won. And they rightly expect the result will be carried out.

Remainers are desperate, they don't accept the result and hence they are more motivated.

You mean the vote that was proven to have had illegal funding, illegal influencing and would not have stand the test of courts except for it not being legally binding? With lies repeated through out the whole campaign? That's the vote you're talking about right? Yea, I can't see how anyone would not accept that vote as iron clad and once off only; esp. as the Tories made such huge strides backing leaving as the only option in the following GE. Clearly there is nothing here to discuss at all.

Strazdas

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The reason leavers are not marching like that is because they won. And they rightly expect the result will be carried out.

Remainers are desperate, they don't accept the result and hence they are more motivated.

At what point does Brexit become a bad idea? Or can this never happen?

Joe_ Public

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

Just as we've known Di so long that a working deal required a sea border, e all know that ultimately the correct way to resolve this is to now put the clear cut options to the people to vote in order of preference.

A GE is not a democratic way to resolve this, as witnessed in the last by-election where the combined leave vote was higher than remain yet it was a lib-dem remainer that won because of a split tory / BP vote.

The FPTP voting system is clearly unfit to represent people's wishes whether its to remain or leave.

Lot of people agree with that position, some dont. On a practical level, question is can a referendum amendment pass the parliament? Very debatable as things stand and not likely the pm will help facilitate it.

Dytalus

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The reason leavers are not marching like that is because they won. And they rightly expect the result will be carried out.

Remainers are desperate, they don't accept the result and hence they are more motivated.

I wouldn't necessarily say they "don't accept it" (although for a variety of sketchy actions by the Vote Leave and Leave.EU campaigns, I'd say it's fair if they didn't). Had Ireland voted against SSM in our referendum, I'd have 'accepted' it in so far as "yup, vote happened, I lost."

I'm not suddenly going to think it's ok that SSM is illegal and would have continued to campaign to have it changed - calling for another referendum. If enough of the public change their mind, there absolutely should be a round two.

I used to be of the view of: the vote happened, absolutely they should Leave under anything that qualifies as leaving the EU - whether that's the EEA, No Deal, Canada+, or whatever. Their fault for not making it specific, but any of those qualify as "leaving the EU". But the two major campaigning forces for the Leave vote were, at best, unethical in their actions - and seems likely they actually broke the law. It's been 3 years. New information has come to light, they've had an elections, there's a new EU Parliament.

I'd say the circumstances have changed enough from 2016 to justify "redoing it" in the same way we "redid" our referendum on divorce when things changed. If it were still 2017, and none of the illegal activities of the Leave campaign had come to light, I'd have agreed "they voted leave, they'll have to accept whatever leave they're able to get". Things have changed since then.

Zubeneschamali

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The reason leavers are not marching like that is because they won. And they rightly expect the result will be carried out.

We don't know they are right to expect that, and I am not sure how many actually do expect that. I have seen lots of Leavers say that they expect the Elite/EU will prevent Brexit from ever happening.

I'd say many would be relieved to be able to go back to harmlessly complaining instead of gazing into the actual abyss of Brexit, as long as they don't have to admit they were reckless.

Letwin_Larry

we heard a lot of concerns being expressed about the likelihood of violence returning if a NI border was reinstalled.
personally i thing parts of GB will explode if (as now seems likely) Brexit is frustrated/prevented/avoided depending on your point of view.

the fault lines of the Union have really been exposed.

Joe_ Public

EU confirm that Monsieur Barnier will be staying in place to negotiate any future trade deals. Wonder how he'll fare when he comes up against the intellectual might of Liz Truss, a woman who makes David Davis seem like a mensa legend by comparison.

Seth Brundle

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The reason leavers are not marching like that is because they won. And they rightly expect the result will be carried out.

What exactly did they win?
In terms of the result being carried out, what exactly is to be carried out?

Duane Dibbley

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

We don't know they are right to expect that, and I am not sure how many actually do expect that. I have seen lots of Leavers say that they expect the Elite/EU will prevent Brexit from ever happening.

I'd say many would be relieved to be able to go back to harmlessly complaining instead of gazing into the actual abyss of Brexit, as long as they don't have to admit they were reckless.

I dont agree with this.

I think most English people still want Brexit. I dont believe they see the EU the same way Irish and People from the EU mainland.

Tacitus Kilgore

Seth Brundle wrote: »

What exactly did they win?
In terms of the result being carried out, what exactly is to be carried out?

If this was twitter you would be sent a picture of the ballot paper in reply.

Which, itself is no more an answer than I am, but it is what we, and the rest* of the UK are up against.






*The sane ones

Letwin_Larry

Duane Dibbley wrote: »

I dont agree with this.

I think most English people still want Brexit. I dont believe they see the EU the same way Irish and People from the EU mainland.

Ireland's relationship and attitude towards the EU is the polar opposite of many (not sure about a majority though) in the UK.
let's face it, because of our colonial past, they are used to having "the whip hand", Ireland was a victim of colonialism.

The EU now for the first time in our history allows us a seat at the table with the big boys. The UK (England in particular) resents what it sees as EU interference.

Kermit.de.frog

If the result was overturned in the UK I think that will be the 5th time a vote against the EU by referendum has been overturned including in France, the Netherlands and Ireland.

Don't know about anyone else but i'm spotting a trend here...

Kermit.de.frog

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

If the result was overturned in the UK I think that will be the 5th time a vote against the EU by referendum has been overturned including in France, the Netherlands and Ireland.

Don't know about anyone else but i'm spotting a trend here...

That people change their mind?

robinph

Duane Dibbley wrote: »

I dont agree with this.

I think most English people still want Brexit. I dont believe they see the EU the same way Irish and People from the EU mainland.

That we don't currently know, the "most" bit.

All that anyone can say at the moment is that a bunch of different people want a bunch of different things, nothing more specific than that can be said.

trellheim

To no-one's surprise the Govt did not want this to come out beforehand

The #Brexit Minister Stephen Barclay just confirmed to me in his @LordsEUCom evidence that, under the Govt's proposals, Northern Irish businesses sending goods to Great Britain will have to complete export declaration forms.

https://twitter.com/StewartWood/status/1186250252191457280

Zubeneschamali

Duane Dibbley wrote: »

I think most English people still want Brexit.

Can you point to a poll from 2019 which supports this?

Leave has actually only been ahead of Remain for a rather short period coinciding with the 2016 campaign with all the dark money/Cambridge Analytica shenanigans at their height.

7 poll-of-polls show results from dead level to 4% remain:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#Polls_of_polls

Tacitus Kilgore

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

If the result was overturned in the UK I think that will be the 5th time a vote against the EU by referendum has been overturned including in France, the Netherlands and Ireland.

Don't know about anyone else but i'm spotting a trend here...

To be fair Kermit, you offer some fantastic discussion on here, it's also good to be a sceptic - but you've been talking about the Bus that's coming for Ireland from the EU on Brexit for over 3 years now and it still hasn't arrived, it's blatantly obvious to the rest of us that the EU doesn't even own such a bus.

This trend above is non-existent, the Brexit vote should be reversed absolutely, not because the EU would like it, but because the whole idea of Brexit is ridiculous and is just not compatible with the modern world - and that's before you even try to pick just one of the possible routes of Brexit..

seamus

Ward J. Littell wrote: »

That people change their mind?

It's more that any people's vote with a loose relation to the EU gets hijacked by nationalists and demagogues who use it as an opportunity to spread disinformation and gain power. And even worse is that they've now realised they no longer need to hijack votes, they can just create unnecessary ones, like Brexit.

It speaks to the necessity for a EU-wide RefCom-style body whose duty it is to create and distribute impartial information within EU countries whenever an EU-relevant referendum or European Election is taking place.

Duane Dibbley

robinph wrote: »

That we don't currently know, the "most" bit.

All that anyone can say at the moment is that a bunch of different people want a bunch of different things, nothing more specific than that can be said.

What do you think has changed their mind since the referendum?

Zubeneschamali

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

If the result was overturned in the UK I think that will be the 5th time a vote against the EU by referendum has been overturned including in France, the Netherlands and Ireland.

Don't know about anyone else but i'm spotting a trend here...

Judging by the Irish and UK example, torrents of lies and bullsh!t from the anti-EU crowd can get a win, and then reason, evidence and a bit of flexibility from the EU can overturn it.

Does that pattern hold in France and the Netherlands cases?

moon2

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

If the result was overturned in the UK I think that will be the 5th time a vote against the EU by referendum has been overturned including in France, the Netherlands and Ireland.

Don't know about anyone else but i'm spotting a trend here...

In the case of Ireland, at least, I would view this as a sign of a functional democracy. A proposal was put forward, it was rejected for reasons, an amended proposal addressing the reasons was put forward and that was deemed acceptable.

The fact this happens so infrequently is two fold. Firstly not every country must hold a vote for a given piece of legislation. Secondly, perhaps the EU excel at coming to agreements with appropriate concessions before putting something forward for ratification.

briany

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

we heard a lot of concerns being expressed about the likelihood of violence returning if a NI border was reinstalled.
personally i thing parts of GB will explode if (as now seems likely) Brexit is frustrated/prevented/avoided depending on your point of view.

the fault lines of the Union have really been exposed.

Brexit and the Northern Irish status quo are ultimately incompatible. You cannot have both. The issue was barely talked about before the referendum, and rubbished as project fear when it was.

It's not even a minor detail. It's a great big elephant of an issue with neon signs pointing towards it. Think about it for a moment - you're giving a choice to an electorate who doesn't appreciate any level of detail and then certain politicians are holding up their decision as an informed one. The mind does truly boggle.