Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

LeinsterDub

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

If the result was overturned in the UK I think that will be the 5th time a vote against the EU by referendum has been overturned including in France, the Netherlands and Ireland.

Don't know about anyone else but i'm spotting a trend here...

That people often vote use the EU vote as a proxy vote to send a message to their current government ?

Duane Dibbley

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Can you point to a poll from 2019 which supports this?

Leave has actually only been ahead of Remain for a rather short period coinciding with the 2016 campaign with all the dark money/Cambridge Analytica shenanigans at their height.

7 poll-of-polls show results from dead level to 4% remain:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#Polls_of_polls

Its stupid pointing at Polls.

Polls before the Referendum pointed at a remain victory.

VinLieger

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

If the result was overturned in the UK I think that will be the 5th time a vote against the EU by referendum has been overturned including in France, the Netherlands and Ireland.

Don't know about anyone else but i'm spotting a trend here...

Yeah there's definitely a conspiracy, maybe someone should also investigate every election where the opposition beats the current government, classic examples of a previous result being suspiciously overturned if you ask me

ToBeFrank123

At this stage, my money is on:

Delay until Jan 31st
A vote on Bojo's deal before then which will fail narrowly - to lose by about 4 votes
An election somehow forced through despite the best efforts by Labour not to hold one
Johnson to win a narrow majority. Lib Dems and Brexit Party to make gains, Labour to lose many seats.
Another vote on his deal which will succeed

Seth Brundle

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

If the result was overturned in the UK I think that will be the 5th time a vote against the EU by referendum has been overturned including in France, the Netherlands and Ireland.

Don't know about anyone else but i'm spotting a trend here...

Right - I'm going to call you out on this.
Can you clarify which vote against the EU did the Irish people overturn and why?
Did the Irish people vote on exactly the same thing the second time around?

Letwin_Larry

briany wrote: »

Brexit and the Northern Irish status quo are ultimately incompatible. You cannot have both. The issue was barely talked about before the referendum, and rubbished as project fear when it was.

It's not even a minor detail. It's a great big elephant of an issue with neon signs pointing towards it. Think about it for a moment - you're giving a choice to an electorate who doesn't appreciate any level of detail and then certain politicians are holding up their decision as an informed one. The mind does truly boggle.

i've said all along it is a square that you cannot circle, unless one side concedes which they clearly dont want to, or at least not enough.

Ireland has always been a footnote in English history, why should they change now? if it wasn't for the EU do you honestly think they would give us a seconds consideration?

ToBeFrank123

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Right - I'm going to call you out on this.
Can you clarify which vote against the EU did the Irish people overturn and why?
Did the Irish people vote on exactly the same thing the second time around?

There's pros and cons to EU membership.

The current arguing in the HoC highlights both the strengths and flaws of national parliaments.

The EU can impose directives on countries which can then be rubber stamped by national parliaments. This helps avoid the petty politics and corruption endemic in almost all parliaments.

Some say the EU is a dictatorship but sometimes you need a dictatorship to get things done fast.

Seth Brundle

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

There's pros and cons to EU membership.

The current arguing in the HoC highlights both the strengths and flaws of national parliaments.

The EU can impose directives on countries which can then be rubber stamped by national parliaments. This helps avoid the petty politics and corruption endemic in almost all parliaments.

Some say the EU is a dictatorship but sometimes you need a dictatorship to get things done fast.

That's different to what Kermit.de.frog was implying.
Kermit.de.frog is trying to suggest that the Irish were bullied into a second vote on Lisbon and we decided to change our mind but what he doesn't mention is that we secured some guarrantees from the EU and therefore voted on something different.

devnull

Chancellor rejects request to publish economic assessment of Brexit deal

https://twitter.com/TomBoadle/status/1186284597409173509

The Chancellor also dismisses claims that the deal could lead to GDP being 6.7% lower after 15 years than if the UK remained in the EU. Says the "FTA modelled in the analysis (see below) does not correspond to the agreement we will be seeking".

More hiding away things which they don't want people to see as they might see the sham for what it is.

farmchoice

https://www.parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/d0537ce3-6000-4751-b120-360a2cf3da88
bercow on his feet now

dublinman1990

It's not going ahead. Nothing to see here folks.

Letwin_Larry

i'm sensing a big slap in the face from Bercow here

Joe_ Public

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

At this stage, my money is on:

Delay until Jan 31st
A vote on Bojo's deal before then which will fail narrowly - to lose by about 4 votes
An election somehow forced through despite the best efforts by Labour not to hold one
Johnson to win a narrow majority. Lib Dems and Brexit Party to make gains, Labour to lose many seats.
Another vote on his deal which will succeed

I suspect you are wrong on first point, seems to me EU is deliberating on a short, technical extension to get deal over the line or a much longer one (next summer perhaps) to cater for a referendum and/or election. Even for an election january 31 doesnt offer half enough time to facilitate a new end point imo. Money is on the long extension for parliament to vote yay or nay.

John Bercow rules out an MV until the WAB is passed.

Letwin_Larry

"repetitive & disorderly"

Igotadose

Bercow has disallowed the government from bringing the WAB to a vote. Bercow referenced Erskine-May, saying the motions are essentially the same. "

Motion will not be debated as it will be repetitive and disorderly to do so"

liamtech

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

"repetitive & disorderly"

That should really be the actual tag line for Brexit

Brexit in 3 words - 'Repetitive and disorderly'

trellheim

watching it on the phone he does not look happy

devnull

Bone was swatted off by Bercow pretty well there. Bone said MPs voted on Saturday not knowing whether Boris Johnson would send a letter requesting a Brexit delay or not, so something has changed and therefore he should be allowing a vote.

Bercow fired back at him he didn't even consider this, because it's not pertinent to think a minister would disobey the law.

dublinman1990

The vote is going ahead tomorrow.

https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1186292106651942913

briany

The Conservatives are going to throw a massive shindig the day that Bercow steps down.

Hurrache

Mistake by Johnson's government, they could have tried it on Saturday with a chance it may have passed.

ToBeFrank123

Seth Brundle wrote: »

That's different to what Kermit.de.frog was implying.
Kermit.de.frog is trying to suggest that the Irish were bullied into a second vote on Lisbon and we decided to change our mind but what he doesn't mention is that we secured some guarrantees from the EU and therefore voted on something different.

From memory, the second time around people felt they had sent a message to their own government and the EU with the first vote. I'm sure there was some subtle digs from the EU and our own political parties that if we didn't vote a certain way there would be consequences. I cannot recall exactly what the consequences would have been. The general feeling was we were holding up the entire EU project. As its a separate issue I will leave it at that.

Headshot

Ahh poor old Bernard

what a nasty piece of work

GM228

You have to admire Bercow, he is well able for what is thrown at him and gives well reasoned replies unlike others in the HoC, he will be missed when he goes.

PropJoe10

Headshot wrote: »

Ahh poor old Bernard

what a nasty piece of work

Bercow really slapped him down emphatically there!

farmchoice

Headshot wrote: »

Ahh poor old Bernard

what a nasty piece of work

bercow tore him apart

Water John

He demolishes JRM as well. The man who agreed with the Speaker on repetition in March and on Saturday reintroduced the same motion in 21 minutes.

trellheim

So they need the legislation now , from their point of view worth a throw of the dice because now its up on blocks

Joe_ Public

That tory has seriously embarrassed himself with that second referendum question. How amateurish can you be?