Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Duane Dibbley

spacecoyote wrote: »

You may well be right, but one word in your statement is pertinent, English

Polling in Wales, Scotland & NI shows they don't want Brexit, with even the Welsh starting to talk independence. In depth data reviews showed that Welsh speaking areas voted strongly to remain, with the Wales vote skewed by older English who have moved there.

So basically England dragging everyone down with them

Yep. England have 85% of the population so it’s really England’s on Brexit.

I don’t know the % of voters who can vote in England but I guess they would still highly outnumber the rest UK

Spanish Eyes

If it comes down to a GE Johnson could lose his seat. It isn't a safe seat, I think he only had a majority of about 5k at the last election.

BarryD2

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The reason leavers are not marching like that is because they won. And they rightly expect the result will be carried out.

If Leavers aren't marching, it's for multiple reasons a) some are embarrassed as they realise they were deceived and misled b) some privileged few might benefit from it and anyway wouldn't be seen dead on a march and c) the rest couldn't be arsed. You're left with the smaller number of right wing fascist type groups for whom protest and incitement to violence is meat & drink.

Professor Moriarty

BarryD2 wrote: »

If Leavers aren't marching, it's for multiple reasons a) some are embarrassed as they realise they were deceived and misled b) some privileged few might benefit from it and anyway wouldn't be seen dead on a march and c) the rest couldn't be arsed. You're left with the smaller number of right wing fascist type groups for whom protest and incitement to violence is meat & drink.

Quite a few have died of old age.

trellheim

Majority 5034 at last election. Anyone campaigning on him lying about Heathrow's 3rd runway should clean up ( if you remember he fked off to Afghanistan to avoid having to vote with the Government - same bolloxology he is at with the letter )

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uxbridge_and_South_Ruislip_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

PS - dug up the quotes from C4

Mr Johnson was an outspoken critic of Heathrow expansion throughout his time as Mayor of London. In December 2013, he told reporters that a third runway “would be a mistake.”

Fast-forward to September of the following year, when he penned a piece for the Telegraph, declaring: “There is no government in the Western world that would even contemplate an act so self-defeating, so short-termist, and so barbarically contemptuous of the rights of the population.

He went on: “That is why all three main parties have correctly ruled out expansion of Heathrow airport, in the form of a third runway.” Mr Johnson used the same piece to argue for a brand-new airport in the Thames Estuary, dubbed Boris Island. The project never took off.

In May 2015, Mr Johnson returned to the House of Commons. In his acceptance speech on his election as MP for Uxbridge, he promised: “I will lie down in front of those bulldozers and stop the building, stop the construction of that third runway.”


But just a few weeks later, Mr Johnson appeared to distance himself from the pledge: in July 2015, he suggested “I don’t think my services as a bulldozer blocker will be required, for decades, if ever.”

The strong rhetoric returned in 2016, when, in his first comments on the issue as foreign secretary, he dismissed Heathrow expansion as a “fantasy” and said plans for a third runway should be “consigned to the dustbin.”

Joe_ Public

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

If it comes down to a GE Johnson could lose his seat. It isn't a safe seat, I think he only had a majority of about 5k at the last election.

He would be losing it to a 24 year old british muslim which does seem a bit of a long shot, but the sheer irony of it would be delicious if it was to happen.

devnull

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

If it comes down to a GE Johnson could lose his seat. It isn't a safe seat, I think he only had a majority of about 5k at the last election.

He'll be parachuted into another seat if that's a danger.

BarryD2

Duane Dibbley wrote: »

Yep. England have 85% of the population so it’s really England’s on Brexit.

Indeed it's English Nationalism that has driven a lot of this Brexit sentiment. Just like excessive Irish Nationalism has been divisive in this country. At least within the framework of the EU, we were able to muddle along under a common canopy. As we've seen in other regions of Europe, the growth of nationalism can be corrosive, divisive and lead to the breaking up of political entities. That's the fire that the Brexiteers are stoking.

Call me Al

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

If it comes down to a GE Johnson could lose his seat. It isn't a safe seat, I think he only had a majority of about 5k at the last election.

There was speculation in the last week or two (after he visited schools there) that he was going to run in Dominic Grieve's constituency. His own seat was at risk.. This seemed a safer bet.

Joe_ Public

serfboard wrote: »

Interesting research carried out by an accountancy firm about debt levels in the UK:

Worth remembering that there are 120 seaside constituencies in the UK - 100 of them voted for Brexit.

Think of these towns in the 1950s - absolutely booming and packed full of tourists. Then think of people who grew up during that time knowing nothing but booming local economies. Once cheap jet travel was invented and developed, that was then end of that, and nothing has been done to replace those lost jobs.

There was one place that stood out that was not a seaside town:

Stoke-on-Trent voted to leave by three to one.

Another place that had a booming local industry (pottery) which has now seriously declined. And even one of the non-pottery industries, has shed thousands of jobs:


Of course, the kicking out against London that resulted in people voting to Leave is not news on this thread. However their woefully-misplaced thinking that things couldn't get worse for them is difficult to contemplate. It's also sad to think that they belived in slimy, sleazely, Tory used-car salesmen, who had done so much to cause the problems in the first place.

Cant wait for an election campaign when we finally get to ask farage and his followers what great vision and plans they have to address this decline.

Professor Moriarty

Gove just said that direct rule will have to return if Stormont isn't up and running after Brexit. Hope the EU picked this up.

serfboard

Joe_ Public wrote: »

ask farage and his followers what great vision and plans they have to address this decline.

Brexit!

And if you ask him to expand on any policy other than Brexit he'll get all stroppy, say that's it's an outrageous stitch-up and threaten never to appear on your TV channel again.

Kermit.de.frog

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Gove just said that direct rule will have to return if Stormont isn't up and running after Brexit. Hope the EU picked this up.

He also said discussions would have to be entered in to with the Irish government.

i.e veiled threat to unionists.

sondagefaux

spacecoyote wrote: »

You may well be right, but one word in your statement is pertinent, English

Polling in Wales, Scotland & NI shows they don't want Brexit, with even the Welsh starting to talk independence. In depth data reviews showed that Welsh speaking areas voted strongly to remain, with the Wales vote skewed by older English who have moved there.

So basically England dragging everyone down with them

Apart from London, and many, not all, towns and cities with universities.

For example, both Newcastle and Durham city (both with universities) voted majority Remain while the rest of the north-east of England (including Sunderland and Middlesborough, which both have universities) voted majority Leave.

Liverpool also voted Remain, partially down to the fact that most newsagents etc in the city don't stock The Sun.

If England outside of London left the UK, the rest of the UK could remain in the EU.

I don't think England minus London's wealth and Scotland's oil would have much of a chance economically...

Professor Moriarty

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

He also said discussions would have to be entered in to with the Irish government.

i.e veiled threat to unionists.

Yeah you could read it either way. It could be a threat or an inducement.

Kermit.de.frog

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Yeah you could read it either way. It could be a threat or an inducement.

Or it could be for the DUP as well...

- 'you guys are trying to screw our Brexit deal, we'll remember'

trashcan

Call me Al wrote: »

There was speculation in the last week or two (after he visited schools there) that he was going to run in Dominic Grieve's constituency. His own seat was at risk.. This seemed a safer bet.

If he does have to switch constituency the opposition should be able to make all sorts of hay with that - Boris running away from facing his electorate etc. Mind you, if it's a safe Tory seat no doubt he'd get elected anyway. These people don't do critical thinking.

robinph

devnull wrote: »

He'll be parachuted into another seat if that's a danger.

Whilst that might save Johnsons seat in Parliament, it would be a disaster for the party nationally that the PM can't even safely get elected in their current constituency.

Letwin_Larry

sondagefaux wrote: »

Apart from London, and many, not all, towns and cities with universities.

For example, both Newcastle and Durham city (both with universities) voted majority Remain while the rest of the north-east of England (including Sunderland and Middlesborough, which both have universities) voted majority Leave.

Liverpool also voted Remain, partially down to the fact that most newsagents etc in the city don't stock The Sun.

If England outside of London left the UK, the rest of the UK could remain in the EU.

I don't think England minus London's wealth and Scotland's oil would have much of a chance economically...

most of these poorer areas voted LEAVE.
these areas have been ignored and neglected for decades, certainly since Thatcher destroyed them.
so along comes the referendum and for the first time in ages they have come out and engage with the political process and vote, but the REMAIN side is desperate to ignore/twart their vote.

it's no wonder they are cheesed off.

A Dub in Glasgo

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

most of these poorer areas voted LEAVE.
these areas have been ignored and neglected for decades, certainly since Thatcher destroyed them.
so along comes the referendum and for the first time in ages they have come out and engage with the political process and vote, but the LEAVE side is desperate to ignore/twart their vote.

it's no wonder they are cheesed off.

I think you mean the Remain side? If not, I agree the Leave side are ignoring their plight and twisting their vote to suit their own ends

Letwin_Larry

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

I think you mean the Remain side? If not, I agree the Leave side are ignoring their plight and twisting their vote to suit their own ends

yes of course i meant the REMAIN side.

btw i happen to think Leaving the EU is a crazy decision. but if you dont like the answer, then it's best not to ask the question. Eh Mr. Cameron?

GM228

Rjd2 wrote: »

GM228 wrote: »

You have to admire Bercow, he is well able for what is thrown at him and gives well reasoned replies unlike others in the HoC, he will be missed when he goes.

Until their is an investigation into those bullying allegations aimed at Bercow, I really wish people would stop putting him on a pedestal.

Innocent until proven guilty and all that....

Whatever about any allegations against him it does not take away from the point I made, he's an excellent speaker, is well able to handle what is thrown at him and seems to be very fair in the chamber.

GM228

Some light reading.

The Withdrawal Agreement Bill.

There's loads to pick out, but first thing which really stands out is the lack of an ability for Parliament to request an extension to the transition period.

Strazdas

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

most of these poorer areas voted LEAVE.
these areas have been ignored and neglected for decades, certainly since Thatcher destroyed them.
so along comes the referendum and for the first time in ages they have come out and engage with the political process and vote, but the REMAIN side is desperate to ignore/twart their vote.

it's no wonder they are cheesed off.

That was an anti-Tory vote though and yet the Tories and their enablers in the right wing press are claiming to be on the side of the 17.4m.

It stands to reason that millions of Leave voters despise the Conservatives, Westminster and the elite of the Daily Telegraph.

looksee

I think he is great (edit: Bercow) but he can be a bit abrasive or patronising. He reminds me of the slagging that used to go on in the Prison forum here (when the prison forum was entertaining).

Joe_ Public

Been scratching my head for a while at the extreme brexiteer carryon of Labour mp Caroline Flint and this thread sheds some light. Not only was she in receipt of brexiter funding (pre referendum) but she is a member of tory brexit think tank Prosperity UK. Among other stuff.

https://twitter.com/tinymattresses/status/1186298530719293442?s=20

She is a total disgrace. At least with Kate Hoey you kind of accept where she is coming from. No place for her in the party but unfortunately the damage is already done.

GM228

GM228 wrote: »

Some light reading.

The Withdrawal Agreement Bill.

There's loads to pick out, but first thing which really stands out is the lack of an ability for Parliament to request an extension to the transition period.

As I thought, S30 will not go down well with the opposition:-

https://twitter.com/hilarybennmp/status/1186373549025615878?s=19

Joe_ Public

Read something about gov needing to give 21 days notice before a vote on a treaty bill which this is. So they are obviously using some dastardly fiendish loophole to get around it, but question is, will it work?

Enzokk

It would be crazy for MPs to try and get this done in a week or two when the original timeline left 3 months for them to get the legislation done. The reason why? It takes time to get it right. If Johnson gets his way and this is rushed through it will cause damage that should have been caught in the time to make sure everything is correct.

GM228

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Read something about gov needing to give 21 days notice before a vote on a treaty bill which this is. So they are obviously using some dastardly fiendish loophole to get around it, but question is, will it work?

A treaty can not be ratified until 21 sitting days have passed under the terms of S20 of the Constitutional Reform and Governance Act 2010, but there are exceptions such as for exceptional circumstances.