Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Enzokk

GM228 wrote: »

A treaty can not be ratified until 21 sitting days have passed under the terms of the Constitutional Reform and Governance Act 2010, but there are exceptions such as for exceptional circumstances.

I guess, "just get it done", would not count as exceptional circumstances. Seeing that an extension has been applied for as well you would assume there is no need to rush this through, right?

Joe_ Public

GM228 wrote: »

A treaty can not be ratified until 21 sitting days have passed under the terms of the Constitutional Reform and Governance Act 2010, but there are exceptions such as for exceptional circumstances.

Thanks. Are these truly exceptional circumstances though? Why does it need to be rushed as we know EU will grant a technical extension if required (well 99 % sure anyway!)?

briany

What does it mean to vote for the WA in principle? What is this concept that I'm suddenly only hearing about, now? Were the votes on May's deal only in principle as well? Sounds like it makes the vote next to worthless as we've seen what the UK can do with agreements 'in principle' before.

GM228

Enzokk wrote: »

I guess, "just get it done", would not count as exceptional circumstances. Seeing that an extension has been applied for as well you would assume there is no need to rush this through, right?

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Thanks. Are these truly exceptional circumstances though? Why does it need to be rushed as we know EU will grant a technical extension if required (well 99 % sure anyway!)?

It should be noted that the 21 day procedure does not apply to the WAB as it is not a treaty, it is just an instrument, and note S33 of the WAB:-

Section 20 of the Constitutional Reform and Governance Act 2010 (treaties to be laid before Parliament before ratification) does not apply in relation to the withdrawal agreement (but this does not affect whether that section applies in relation to any modification of the agreement).

They are effectively legislating their own loophole and avoiding the question of what is an exceptional circumstance.

Once (IF) the WAB is passed the WA can be ratified straight away.

Joe_ Public

It just sounds crazy to me, even if they are technically within their rights in what they are doing. As an mp i would automatically vote no on basis it did not give enough time for proper scrutiny and feel entirely justified. When asked about an economic impact analysis, sajid javid shrugged and declared it "self evident" that the deal was good for the uk economy. Thats banana republic stuff if you ask me.

LeinsterDub

Enzokk wrote: »

I guess, "just get it done", would not count as exceptional circumstances. Seeing that an extension has been applied for as well you would assume there is no need to rush this through, right?

I'd not get too excited about these things. They can all be undone by a one line bill.

Capt'n Midnight

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Gove just said that direct rule will have to return if Stormont isn't up and running after Brexit. Hope the EU picked this up.

A wee bit more on the DUP's latest cunning plan to get Stormont up and running.

And they might have gotten away with it if they hadn't left the original date on the letter they sent to the NI Attorney General yesterday asking about legislative competence.

Typos happen. But typing June when you mean October ?

It completely undermines the stunt at Stormont earlier because it implies they've been actively not sending that letter for the last four months.


So yeah the executive will be reforming any day now :rolleyes:

Professor Moriarty

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

A wee bit more on the DUP's latest cunning plan to get Stormont up and running.

And they might have gotten away with it if they hadn't left the original date on the letter they sent to the NI Attorney General yesterday asking about legislative competence.

Typos happen. But typing June when you mean October ?

It completely undermines the stunt at Stormont earlier because it implies they've been actively not sending that letter for the last four months.


So yeah the executive will be reforming any day now :rolleyes:

They lost whatever shred of credibility they had left with today's farcical stunt. The sight of Foster saying how sad she was that SSM legislation was coming in made her look like an old biddy from the 60s.

briany

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The sight of Foster saying how sad she was that SSM legislation was coming in made her look like an old biddy from the 60s.

Yes, Foster has really gone against her modern, hip, fresh & funky image on this one.

Professor Moriarty

briany wrote: »

Yes, Foster has really gone against her modern, hip, fresh & funky image on this one.

Yes. She had me fooled for a long time. The truth will out though.

weemcd

It's quite stunning how long the list of failures run for Arlene Foster's tenure as DUP leader, since 2015:

RHI
Stormont collapse
Loss of overall Unionist majority
Brexit
Irish Language Act
Gay Marriage
Abortion rights

Every single one a monumental failure on her and her party. I've surely forgotten another half a dozen.

Professor Moriarty

weemcd wrote: »

It's quite stunning how long the list of failures run for Arlene Foster's tenure as DUP leader, since 2015:

RHI
Stormont collapse
Loss of overall Unionist majority
Brexit
Irish Language Act
Gay Marriage
Abortion rights

Every single one a monumental failure on her and her party. I've surely forgotten another half a dozen.

Party support has tanked.

GM228

weemcd wrote: »

It's quite stunning how long the list of failures run for Arlene Foster's tenure as DUP leader, since 2015.....

She's in competition with Johnson to see who can achieve the most failures :pac:

Enzokk

GM228 wrote: »

She's in competition with Johnson to see who can achieve the most failures :pac:

You cannot lose 6 votes in a row if you aren't sitting in Stormont though.:eek:

10000maniacs

Donaldson: Assembly dead if Johnson's deal goes ahead. Newsnight headline.

Mr Velo

So, who can give me the low-down on where things stand tonight following the release of the WAB. Been offline since late this afternoon.

Shelga

So are they voting on the WAB tomorrow? Does that basically mean they’re voting on the entirety of the legislation to pass Johnson’s WA?

And they’ll vote on amendments such as customs union first? (Completely ignoring the fact that the EU is done negotiating)

Strazdas

10000maniacs wrote: »

Donaldson: Assembly dead if Johnson's deal goes ahead. Newsnight headline.

Suzanne Breen of the Belfast Tel was also on Newsnight saying the DUP will try every trick in the book to bring down Johnson's deal, even voting for a second referendum.

Joe_ Public

Have to agree with Stephen Bush take on newsnight. This all feels like election triggering from boris johnson. Today was pure theatre, not a genuine attempt to secure a vote and very likely he hopes to see the wab torpedoed too. Election is the desired destination. Always has been.

Strazdas

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Have to agree with Stephen Bush take on newsnight. This all feels like election triggering from boris johnson. Today was pure theatre, not a genuine attempt to secure a vote and very likely he hopes to see the wab torpedoed too. Election is the desired destination. Always has been.

Yes, his take was that Johnson actually wants the WAB to collapse and for he to go to the public in a GE as a "Brexit martyr".

Joe_ Public

Strazdas wrote: »

Yes, his take was that Johnson actually wants the WAB to collapse and for he to go to the public in a GE as a "Brexit martyr".

That is it and so very transparent too. And if somehow they managed to get the deal through, thats alright too because it would put no deal back on the table, thus giving them a further option. Actually having the no deal option so strongly hinted at in the bill almost reads like a provocation to mps to vote it down.

GM228

Something important I forgot to mention in the WAB, S32:-

Repeal of section 13 of EUWA

(1) Section 13 of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 (Parliamentary approval of the outcome of negotiations with the EU) is repealed.

(2) Accordingly, none of the conditions set out in paragraphs (a) to (d) of subsection (1) of that section apply in relation to the ratification of the withdrawal agreement.

This means if passed there will be no requirement for a MV in order to ratify the WA!

A Dub in Glasgo

Shelga wrote: »

So are they voting on the WAB tomorrow? Does that basically mean they’re voting on the entirety of the legislation to pass Johnson’s WA?

And they’ll vote on amendments such as customs union first? (Completely ignoring the fact that the EU is done negotiating)

This is the legislation to enact the WA. This is the most important piece of legislation for years and they are expecting to only give 2 days to it. Not a lot of time to scrutinise it (there will be nightshift teams looking at it tonight and tomorrow). The HoC is unlikely to vote for it without a suite of amendments which end up making the WA null and void.

GM228

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

This is the legislation to enact the WA. This is the most important piece of legislation for years and they are expecting to only give 2 days to it. Not a lot of time to scrutinise it (there will be nightshift teams looking at it tonight and tomorrow). The HoC is unlikely to vote for it without a suite of amendments which end up making the WA null and void.

3 days have been allocated.

In total there are only 8 sitting days to allow the readings, the committee stage and the report stage in the Commons, then the same in the Lords and then the Parliamentary Ping-Pong session.

For comparison:-

The European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 which was only 62 pages of a Bill had 36 days for the above (allocated 12 days in the Commons).

The European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Act 2017 had 11 days (allocated 5 days in the Commons) for the process - it contained the grand of of 5 sentences in the Bill and still had greater debate.

Danzy

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Have to agree with Stephen Bush take on newsnight. This all feels like election triggering from boris johnson. Today was pure theatre, not a genuine attempt to secure a vote and very likely he hopes to see the wab torpedoed too. Election is the desired destination. Always has been.

If he has a majority he'll pass a deal easily.

Of course he wants to trigger an election, he'll win it.

You surely don't Imagine that he wants No Deal Brexit.

No one still believes that will happen.

Joe_ Public

Can somebody clear this up for me? When they talk about "getting brexit done" by end of the month, does this include EU ratification? Are they out on 1 November if hoc passes bill even though EU parliament hasnt yet ratified it?

Danzy

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Can somebody clear this up for me? When they talk about "getting brexit done" by end of the month, does this include EU ratification? Are they out on 1 November if hoc passes bill even though EU parliament hasnt yet ratified it?

No, they will have voted out but the ratification will happen later.

There isn't an exact science abour it.

Joe_ Public

Danzy wrote: »

If he has a majority he'll pass a deal easily.

Of course he wants to trigger an election, he'll win it.

You surely don't Imagine that he wants No Deal Brexit.

No one still believes that will happen.

Its not just passing the deal (numbers incredibly tight still, so definitely not easy) but what opposition will do to compromise it. If they wreck it, as is very possible, theres every chance johnson will just scupper the deal and pressure parliament to move to trigger that election. Thats what Stephen Bush is getting at - Johnson is actively looking for that to happen. Just have to wait and see, i just believe it might be perceptive analysis.

GM228

Danzy wrote: »

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Can somebody clear this up for me? When they talk about "getting brexit done" by end of the month, does this include EU ratification? Are they out on 1 November if hoc passes bill even though EU parliament hasnt yet ratified it?

No, they will have voted out but the ratification will happen later.

There isn't an exact science abour it.

There is no deal without ratification from both sides, the EP must ratify the deal before the 31st (assuming that's still the deadline day).

The EP would need to convey a special plenary session to ratify the deal before the deadline.

Letwin_Larry

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Its not just passing the deal (numbers incredibly tight still, so definitely not easy) but what opposition will do to compromise it. If they wreck it, as is very possible, theres every chance johnson will just scupper the deal and pressure parliament to move to trigger that election. Thats what Stephen Bush is getting at - Johnson is actively looking for that to happen. Just have to wait and see, i just believe it might be perceptive analysis.

BoJo is itching for a GE. has been since he got the job. and besides his options are fast running out.
i think he'll win if he gets it. Lab are a joke. Lib Dems are on the rise but will do as much damage to Lab as the Tories imo. i really dont think Farage will make any inroads.