Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Zubeneschamali

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

of course you would check it, and they have ample time to do so.

David Allen Green, a former UK government lawyer, has said on Twitter that he has read it and it would take him about 2 weeks work to be sure what it actually does.

Note that the Government could have circulated a draft for comment anytime during the last year, but they hid it in a drawer instead.

Hurrache

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

If nothing terrible has been found in Johnson's WAB in the 16 hours since publication then it's probably safe to say that nothing terrible exists in it.

Export licences required for NI businesses to export to the 'mainland' for one.

Also, if no future arrangements made between the UK and the EU have been agreed by a certain date, the government can unilaterally leave with no deal without any consultation with parliament.

Zubeneschamali

Joe_ Public wrote: »

they could be facing down the barrel of a no deal gun come end of 2020. Depends on make up of house, of course, but what does parliament do and could numbers be there to revoke?

Too late to revoke, they are out of the EU as soon as they pass this deal. The treaties cease to apply.

They would have to apply to rejoin - back of the queue behind Albania.

BarryD2

farmchoice wrote: »

the day Theresa may got into bed with the DUP probably every single person in Ireland shook their head and thought to themselves ''she will live to regret that''

we were right.

The faultlines were already there. Surely the basic issue is that Brexit is essentially at odds with the Belfast/ GFA. The latter was a fudge of sorts and possible as long as both the Republic and UK were part of the EU.

briany

Why is the EU waiting to decide about granting an extension? Mustn't one be granted anyway in order to give time to process supporting legislation?

Hurrache

Hurrache wrote: »

Export licences required for NI businesses to export to the 'mainland' for one.

Also, if no future arrangements made between the UK and the EU have been agreed by a certain date, the government can unilaterally leave with no deal without any consultation with parliament.

So we'd be looking at No Deal again at the end of 2020? No way the Brits wouldn't use that to get a better trade deal.

ancapailldorcha

Deleted User wrote: »

So we'd be looking at No Deal again at the end of 2020? No way the Brits wouldn't use that to get a better trade deal.

I don't think they would. If Johnson passes this and then wins an election then it's GG as far as the Remain side goes. No deal will already have been legitimized by voting for the deal. I might actually have to email my MP now. FFS.

VinLieger

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

you could give the Remainers MPs 6 or 12 months to check, examine, scrutinize this Bill and you know they still wont vote for it.

Which has nothing to do with why it needs to be scrutinised, god knows whats in there as the only plausible reason for not publishing it until the last minute is they have something to hide

Letwin_Larry

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

If nothing terrible has been found in Johnson's WAB in the 16 hours since publication then it's probably safe to say that nothing terrible exists in it.

This document has, rather uniquely amongst boring government stuff, been subjected to exhaustive scrutiny by legal people countrywide overnight.

So its not really comparable to occasions when MPs were given weeks to read something in years gone past. MPs were the only ones reading this stuff back in the day. Not so today.

the longer this nonsense goes on the more it comes back to the fundamental question,

are MPs prepared to honour the decision of the Referendum or not?

regardless of what you think about the result of the referendum, the wisdom of calling it, or how it was fought and argued, how informed or not the voter were, how intelligent, educated, rich or poor they were, how much you like, trust or detest the protagonists, that is the real question, that is the bottom line.

and that will be the basis of the GE when it is fought.

is_that_so

briany wrote: »

Why is the EU waiting to decide about granting an extension? Mustn't one be granted anyway in order to give time to process supporting legislation?

No, they can wait until 31st October if they choose. They will sit out this week to see what happens.

farmchoice

briany wrote: »

Why is the EU waiting to decide about granting an extension? Mustn't one be granted anyway in order to give time to process supporting legislation?

well on Saturday night it was not clear what was going to happen plus every national leader needs to be consulted.
now they are waiting to see what happens, if Johnson was to have a good day today they might sit on their hands until Thursday. by then they will know the lie of the land.
a 10 day technical extension to pass legislation is different from a 3/6/12 month delay for n election/ referendum.

ArmaniJeanss

Hurrache wrote: »

Export licences required for NI businesses to export to the 'mainland' for one.

Also, if no future arrangements made between the UK and the EU have been agreed by a certain date, the government can unilaterally leave with no deal without any consultation with parliament.

Yes, those two were spotted quickly.
But my point is that that seems to be the extent of the bad things. There's no particular need to give MPs weeks to read it. Another 24 hours of every legal person in the UK poring over it with a fine toothcomb seems adequate to me.
Many MPs aren't particularly well-qualified to understand these documents anyway, legal minds are generally better.

If MPs accept the two negative points you've raised and wish to vote Yes anyway then that seems fair enough.

LeinsterDub

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

you could give the Remainers MPs 6 or 12 months to check, examine, scrutinize this Bill and you know they still wont vote for it.

You could use that logic for any bill ever. Sure why bother allowing any scrutiny . A member of the government should just write a bill , stick it on the floor in the middle of the HoC and say Vote!

Jim2007

is_that_so wrote: »

The HoC hasn't been fit for purpose since the last election. Every little faction is determined to see their own outcome and care little what they have to do to get it.

Because it does not function the way you want it? It's a representative democracy that is how it is supposed to work and it will produce the same kind of result as it does in most other European countries - a requirement to form a coalition government. It's just that the Brits have never been very good at being team players, but they are going to have to learn because that's the way the world works.

Zubeneschamali

Deleted User wrote: »

So we'd be looking at No Deal again at the end of 2020? No way the Brits wouldn't use that to get a better trade deal.

But they have already given up Northern Ireland, the €30 bn, and citizens rights, their bargaining chips.

Threatening No Deal in 2020 is just silly, like showing up to buy a car and threatening to burn your own money if they won't reduce the price.

Seth Brundle

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

the longer this nonsense goes on the more it comes back to the fundamental question,

are MPs prepared to honour the decision of the Referendum or not?
...
that is the bottom line.

and that will be the basis of the GE when it is fought.

Just to clarify, did the decision to leave the EU mean leaving with or without an agreement on the joint future relationship now that 40 years of trade agreements sudedenly stop for the UK?
Otherwise, you're just posting childsh populist nonsense!

RickBlaine

Will there by any votes today or will they be tomorrow?

Hurrache

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Yes, those two were spotted quickly.
But my point is that that seems to be the extent of the bad things. There's no particular need to give MPs weeks to read it. Another 24 hours of every legal person in the UK poring over it with a fine toothcomb seems adequate to me.
Many MPs aren't particularly well-qualified to understand these documents anyway, legal minds are generally better.

If MPs accept the two negative points you've raised and wish to vote Yes anyway then that seems fair enough.

24 hours for such a complex document, no matter who reads it, that requires scrutinising, as well as existing laws and contracts that are affected, that affects 4 countries, is ridiculously short.

I wouldn't sign off on complex specifications that I'm expected to deliver within 24 hours, never mind something that affects millions.

is_that_so

Jim2007 wrote: »

Because it does not function the way you want it? It's a representative democracy that is how it is supposed to work and it will produce the same kind of result as it does in most other European countries - a requirement to form a coalition government. It's just that the Brits have never been very good at being team players, but they are going to have to learn because that's the way the world works.

It doesn't function at all! Outside of this mess I largely don't care what they do.

Zubeneschamali

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

are MPs prepared to honour the decision of the Referendum or not?

They are not bound to honour it right now no matter what the cost, which is what you seem to be implying. This decision will affect the UK (and to a lesser extent, Ireland and the EU) for at least a generation, they should take their time and get it right.

moon2

The Good Friday agreement had a lot of scrutiny and they still managed to screw that one up. One of the primary rights it offers to NI citizens, the ability to be either Irish, British or both has been deemed inoperable.

Why shouldn't this significantly more complex document have sufficient time to scrutinise and ensure that existing laws don't render important aspects inoperable. With the current administration you'd nearly *expect* that to occur.

ArmaniJeanss

Hurrache wrote: »

24 hours for such a complex document, no matter who reads it, that requires scrutinising, as well as existing laws and contracts that are affected, that affects 4 countries, is ridiculously short.

I wouldn't sign off on complex specifications that I'm expected to deliver within 24 hours, never mind something that affects millions.

It has probably been cumulatively scrutinised more in the <1 day since publication than 99% of bills which meander through the house at a slower traditional pace.

Don't get me wrong, I'm still on the side of stopping Brexit by any means possible. But I do think Remainers are being disingenuous in this case, and there's no reason for us outside the UK not to acknowledge this.

Borderhopper

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

of course you would check it, and they have ample time to do so.

In the medical/clinical field, it can take from weeks to months to introduce a new protocol, even though it will probably improve patient care. Every thing has to be checked against current practice, tested to ensure it complies with legislation/current guidelines, cross checked with international best practice, there are consultations with stakeholders, training for staff, piloted to ensure it’s effective, rolled out and then audited after a period of time in operation to ensure it actually does the thing it’s supposed to.

It amazes me that a large document is handed to parliament, with the instructions essentially being “here’s the gist of it, don’t bother reading it, it’s all good, sign here please”. And this isn’t the usual process in legislation, with 1st and 2nd readings, committee stages, Lords etc. how can someone sign something without actually understanding all the implications of something that’s going to affect the country for the next 40 years.

I think we could be witnessing a Yugoslavia style breakup in a western democracy. The UK was founded on the conquest by England of its neighbours. And each constituent part of the UK has its own regiments drawn from the local population, with distinctly regional traditions and identities. The Irish Guards, for example, take great pride in their Irish traditions and were only sent to NI as the troubles were winding down, for fear of rebellion. Are the Scots Guards really going to Inverness to crack heads? It might sound melodramatic, but I don’t believe that England will honour any vote for independence from any constituent part. No country willingly gives up large parts of its territory, and the UK is no different.

Joe_ Public

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

It has probably been cumulatively scrutinised more in the <1 day since publication than 99% of bills which meander through the house at a slower traditional pace.

Don't get me wrong, I'm still on the side of stopping Brexit by any means possible. But I do think Remainers are being disingenuous in this case, and there's no reason for us outside the UK not to acknowledge this.

Look at the benn legislation. All the time they spent on that, legal minds poring over it, and still they ended up leaving a loophole that needed to be closed by letwin.

Its a fair point that remain mps will always vote against, but what of those mps - moderate tories in particular - who could be spooked by more fine print details emerging. Thats what gov is afraid of imo.

VinLieger

moon2 wrote: »

The Good Friday agreement had a lot of scrutiny and they still managed to screw that one up. One of the primary rights it offers to NI citizens, the ability to be either Irish, British or both has been deemed inoperable.

Why shouldn't this significantly more complex document have sufficient time to scrutinise and ensure that existing laws don't render important aspects inoperable. With the current administration you'd nearly *expect* that to occur.

Actually its completely operable but the Brits just chose not to correctly implement the required legislation for the last 20 years,

Leroy42

One only has to look at the lack of care taken over both the legislation for the referendum itself and then the passing of the A50 act to understand what the consequences of failing to properly understand the implications of a piece of legislation can do.

And yet many Brexiteers are calling for exactly the same now.

Take back control by not actually doing their job!

Enzokk

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

i'm sorry but i just dont swallow MPs saying they dont have enough time to assess/scrutinize this bill.
i mean it's Treesa's WA with a few teaks and modifications (they said so themselves), which they've been debating for months.

this is just another excuse from Remainer MPs to seek to stifle Brexit.

and come the election, i believe the voters will not have forgotten this nonsense.

Not true, Theresa May never published the Withdrawal Agreement Bill and she would have faced the same problem as Johnson because it is a complicated piece of legislation that undoes a 40 year relationship. She also took it to the deadline and also wanted to rush it through but she never published the bill so nobody outside of those that wrote it and May I suppose saw it.

Enzokk

The Wild Animals in Circuses Act were given a longer time in the House of Commons than this bill. Anyone saying there is enough time for scrutiny is lying to themselves about what is happening here.

https://twitter.com/jl_owen/status/1186336047975809030?s=20

ancapailldorcha

Surely MP's will see this coming a mile off, no? I mean, Johnson has established himself as someone who is completely and utterly ruthless and treacherous at this stage. It's fairly obvious that he would try something with this deal and now we know what from that tweet of Caroline Lucas' that Enzokk shared earlier.

Joe_ Public

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Surely MP's will see this coming a mile off, no? I mean, Johnson has established himself as someone who is completely and utterly ruthless and treacherous at this stage. It's fairly obvious that he would try something with this deal and now we know what from that tweet of Caroline Lucas' that Enzokk shared earlier.

Its not very credible that they expected to dupe mps in that way. I know they have contempt for them but they dont believe they all button up at the back. Question is as to the possible ulterior motives, have to be one step ahead of these guys. Seems the big problem for gov today will be with the procedural bill, wont get very far if they cant get that through.