Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Hurrache

So Jamie Bryson has launched an attempt to have a judicial review of the agreement based on that it contravenes the GFA. This line in the document is hilarious given the DUP shenanigans in Stormont yesterday

The respondent should give an undertaking that he will not distinguish unlawfully between UK citizens who reside in Northern Ireland from those who live in Great Britain

https://twitter.com/JamieBrysonCPNI/status/1186581773649616896

This guy points then out a few hypocritical tweets from the bould Bryson

https://twitter.com/Stephen40825524/status/1186586967594668032

CelticRambler

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

the longer this nonsense goes on the more it comes back to the fundamental question,

are MPs prepared to honour the decision of the Referendum or not?

They already did honour the result of the referendum. The UK voted to leave; the HoC formally declared the country's decision by giving notice to the EU under Art. 50.

Everything that has happened since then has been UK MPs squabbling amongst themselves as to what exactly "Leave" means, something that should have been defined before anyone turned up a polling booth in 2016. Theresa May's definition "Brexit means Brexit" has proven to be somewhat unfit for purpose (rather like many aspects of the UK's current political processes).

Akrasia

Deleted User wrote: »

So we'd be looking at No Deal again at the end of 2020? No way the Brits wouldn't use that to get a better trade deal.

Yep. As we've seen since the beginning of this car crash is that the Brexiters have no ideas other than to run down the clock, get to 'the last minute' and then try to force people to accept things they would normally refuse to contemplate at the barrell of a gun

RickBlaine

RickBlaine wrote: »

Will there by any votes today or will they be tomorrow?

Meant to be two later on this evening. First is on the second reading, then followed by one on the programme motion. This is the more important one as it will determine whether BJ can stick to his 3 day timetable or not. If he loses it, his Oct 31st deadline is more than likely out the window.

Kermit.de.frog

The first vote tonight is essentially the principle of the deal. Pretty much certain now to be agreed.

That means regardless of whether they agree the 2nd vote on the timetable for scrutiny or not they will probably be out by the new year. Both customs union and 2nd ref won't have the numbers apparently.

ToBeFrank123

I think there is a vote on the timetable/program. If Johnson wins this vote, its a good omen for his deal. If he loses it, its back to square one.

liamtech

Ok so im gonna bring this up - Lets just accept the basics for a start

1. The Unionists and mainly the DUP behaved appallingly during the Ref, and subsequently by only doubling down, and then trusting and supporting BoJo
2. They support brexit, and for the most part advocated the ludicrous line that nothing would change on the border
3. The GFA, they consistently claimed, would not be effected at all by Brexit

Now we could take the obvious line that, look they brought this on themselves - told ye so - they are reaping what they sowed etc

But i am genuinely of the belief that just as a No-Deal Brexit would seriously cripple the GFA - so does this deal. It seems to me that the only way to actually sort this would be to have No Brexit (by what ever means possible) - or have the UKGBNI remain so closely aligned that it almost renders brexit pointless

• Its emerging today that the term 'economic United Ireland' would actually apply to this deal - trade from NI to GB is effected but from GB to NI, well in that direction it is effectively NI importing from a foreign country - the outlines for trade show export licenses - import declarations
• It seems that in avoiding a hard border along the six counties, they ACTUAL HAVE created a semi hard border in the irish sea
• Given the way stormont will be seated (assuming it ever sits again) - NI will not leave the CU or SM, for the foreseeable future

So leaving aside the OBVIOUS fact that we said this from the beginning - is there any way to square this properly. Yes they are responsible, yes they voted Brexit - yes they LIED - but is this deal a runner? at all????

Shelga

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The first vote tonight is essentially the principle of the deal. Pretty much certain now to be agreed.

That means regardless of whether they agree the 2nd vote on the timetable for scrutiny or not they will probably be out by the new year. Both customs union and 2nd ref won't have the numbers apparently.

Why is the principle of the deal pretty much certain to be agreed now, when it looked like a razor thin margin only 3 days ago? If anything, Johnson is losing momentum?

Kermit.de.frog

Shelga wrote: »

Why is the principle of the deal pretty much certain to be agreed now, when it looked like a razor thin margin only 3 days ago?

Because Labour rebel MPs in leave or knife edge seats are terrified of their constituents reactions if the vote is not delivered ahead of an election...

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1186599924412141569

Letwin_Larry

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The first vote tonight is essentially the principle of the deal. Pretty much certain now to be agreed.

That means regardless of whether they agree the 2nd vote on the timetable for scrutiny or not they will probably be out by the new year. Both customs union and 2nd ref won't have the numbers apparently.

personally i dont see why BoJo/the Govt. is so hung up on the 31st Oct deadline. it's just a silly arbitrary date i believe.
give them another 6 weeks if that's what they need. i do seriously doubt their motivation for the delay tbh. personally i feel they are just hell bent on frustrating the referendum vote. that's just my opinion of course (before you all attack me).

so long as he gets the darn thing through and they move on, then i would welcome it.

Joe_ Public

Voting for bill to pass second reading isnt exactly rebelling in any extreme way, its just moving it on to committee stage for all the amendment fun to start.

They won't pass the timetable which is far more crtical as its the end of Johnsons do or die 31 oct brexit. Could even pull thre bill entirely at that point.

robinph

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

personally i dont see why BoJo/the Govt. is so hung up on the 31st Oct deadline. it's just a silly arbitrary date i believe.
give them another 6 weeks if that's what they need. i do seriously doubt their motivation for the delay tbh. personally i feel they are just hell bent on frustrating the referendum vote. that's just my opinion of course (before you all attack me).

so long as he get the darn thing through and they move on, then i would welcome it.

Because the leaders election was based on who could sound more of a believer in Brexit than anyone else. Absolutely no other reason for it.

Shelga

How can any Labour MP vote for this legislation, if the answer to the question “Will this make my constituents poorer?” is a resounding yes.

I’d rather resign/not run in next election. Let the ignorant masses vote for someone who will just say yes to self-harm for no reason other than staying in their seat.

Enzokk

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Because Labour rebel MPs in leave or knife edge seats are terrified of their constituents reactions if the vote is not delivered ahead of an election...

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1186599924412141569

It could be that finally those Labour MPs show up to vote for Brexit but I am skeptical as we have been hearing about these 20-30 Labour MPs in Leave areas for a long time now. They have been voting against Brexit all this time so I fail to see why they would start now.

It will happen I think, but I am a little tired of reading of these Labour Leave MPs and they never seem to appear.

Joe_ Public

JRM really helping things again. Not.

https://twitter.com/edvaizey/status/1186580857861087232?s=20

farmchoice

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Because Labour rebel MPs in leave or knife edge seats are terrified of their constituents reactions if the vote is not delivered ahead of an election...

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1186599924412141569

she's at it again!! to date laura has got every single prediction on the number of labour rebels wrong, as recently as last Saturday morning she was on the TV predicting in excess of 15 and up to 25.
it turned out to be 6, up 1 on previous WA vote.



her source as always is dom cummings or actors on his behalf.

Kermit.de.frog

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

personally i feel they are just hell bent on frustrating the referendum vote. that's just my opinion of course (before you all attack me).

Spot on. The remainers have tried every trick in the book to overturn the result of a democratic vote in which the majority voted to leave.

It's disgraceful really. The biased refuse to see it. The remainers don't mind because they never accepted the vote.

Kermit.de.frog

The horse trading is underway for the 2nd vote on the timetable according to the Guardian to get the former Tories over the line

Soft-Brexit Conservatives could back Boris Johnson’s plan to push through his deal in three days if he agrees to close a loophole that would allow the UK to crash out on World Trade Organization terms at the end of next year, the Guardian’s political team reports.

It is understood No 10 is preparing to concede on some amendments but is putting pressure on the former Tories not to block the programme motion, arguing this would delay Brexit.

There are believed to be only a handful of the group of former Tory MPs still threatening to vote with the opposition parties to give parliament more time to scrutinise the bill.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2019/oct/22/brexit-boris-johnson-deal-leave-eu-live-news

Professor Moriarty

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Spot on. The remainers have tried every trick in the book to overturn the result of a democratic vote in which the majority voted to leave.

It's disgraceful really. The biased refuse to see it. The remainers don't mind because they never accepted the vote.

And the Leavers have tried every trick in the book including multiple blatant lies.

It's disgraceful really how people were consistently lied to by biased English nationalists. The Leavers don't mind because they never accept the truth.

The disquiet over NI seems to be ratcheting up doesn't it? Why would SF want the assembly back anyway if theres a chance of it overturning the soft border which would dovetail nicely with their UI plans in the long run?


https://twitter.com/skydavidblevins/status/1186607660357050369?s=20

Enzokk

Screw it, if this is the people looking out for their voters let them screw themselves over. I cannot muster any sympathy if this is what voters want.

https://twitter.com/AyoCaesar/status/1186606116567953408?s=20

Hasn't ready anything of the bill but will vote for it.

Letwin_Larry

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Spot on. The remainers have tried every trick in the book to overturn the result of a democratic vote in which the majority voted to leave.

It's disgraceful really. The biased refuse to see it. The remainers don't mind because they never accepted the vote.

i actually disagree with the Brexit Leave vote. i think they are wrong to leave. but heck that's their decision. that's how the system works. if you dont like the answer, then dont ask the question.

it's so obvious that there are many remainer MPs who will do anything to overturn that vote. that is their democratic right.

but if only they could be upfront and honest about it.

Professor Moriarty

Enzokk wrote: »

Screw it, if this is the people looking out for their voters let them screw themselves over. I cannot muster any sympathy if this is what voters want.

https://twitter.com/AyoCaesar/status/1186606116567953408?s=20

Hasn't ready anything of the bill but will vote for it.

Similar to a former Tory MP (can't remember name) on Newsnight last night who said he wouldn't be able to read it fully but he would vote for it anyway because reasons.

Enzokk

The Customs Union amendment has interesting names on it, some Labour MPs that want to have Brexit done. This could derails the bill if it passed,

https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1186598832613810176?s=20

liamtech

Originally Posted by Letwin_Larry View Post
personally i feel they are just hell bent on frustrating the referendum vote. that's just my opinion of course (before you all attack me).

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Spot on. The remainers have tried every trick in the book to overturn the result of a democratic vote in which the majority voted to leave.

It's disgraceful really. The biased refuse to see it. The remainers don't mind because they never accepted the vote.

DO you realize that a Brexit where you leave the SM and CU, simply doesnt work for the UK? The reason being you have 2 communities in NI, a GFA that says what ever happens, systems need to benefit both communities

• BoJos deal places a Brexit Border in the Irish sea
• No Deal places one along the 6 counties

and as for the Referendum result - leave aside all the lies (this will be easy - great deal - dont worry about the GFA - 350million for the NHS) -

It was the Equivalent of the Republic having a Referendum on the following

People of Ireland, do you want to begin Colonizing the Moon in the next 5 years, creating Irelands first Colony by 2025 -

[] Yes
[] No

Whatever you vote for we will impliment


Its Unicorns and colonies on the moon.
It was never going to work and doubly so in its current hard LEAVE CU/SM form

prawnsambo

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Spot on. The remainers have tried every trick in the book to overturn the result of a democratic vote in which the majority voted to leave.

It's disgraceful really. The biased refuse to see it. The remainers don't mind because they never accepted the vote.

Except it was the hard leavers that actually brought down May's deal. In the first MV 118 Tories and all the DUP voted against it. In the second, 75 Tories and all the DUP and in the third 34 Tories and all the DUP. In all cases, if the so called pro-leave Tory party and the DUP had voted for it, it would have passed.

Among those who voted against MV3 (not including the DUP) were: Steve Baker, Priti Patel, Andrew Bridgen, Mark Francois, Peter Bone, Adam Afriye, Theresa Villiers, Bill Cash, Christopher Chope, Suella Braverman, Adam Holloway, David Jones, Julian Lewis, Marcus Fysh, John Baron, Andrea Jenkyns, Bernard Jenkin, John Redwood and Owen Paterson. That's 19 hard brexiters by my count. 24 of them plus the DUP would have carried it.

Edit to add James Duddridge, Philip Hollobone, Julia Lopez, Craig MacKinlay, Laurence Robertson, Andrew Rosindell and Anne Marie Morris

Joe_ Public

prawnsambo wrote: »

Except it was the hard leavers that actually brought down May's deal. In the first MV 118 Tories and all the DUP voted against it. In the second, 75 Tories and all the DUP and in the third 34 Tories and all the DUP. In all cases, if the so called pro-leave Tory party and the DUP had voted for it, it would have passed.

Among those who voted against MV3 (not including the DUP) were: Steve Baker, Priti Patel, Andrew Bridgen, Mark Francois, Peter Bone, Guto Bebb, Theresa Villiers, Bill Cash, Christopher Chope, Suella Braverman, Adam Holloway, David Jones, Julian Lewis, Marcus Fysh, John Baron, Andrea Jenkyns, Bernard Jenkin, John Redwood and Owen Paterson. That's 19 hard brexiters by my count. 24 of them plus the DUP would have carried it.

Absolutely spot on. Just Guto Bebb to be fair, is a well known tory rebel and Boris Johnson hater. I dont know is he actually an erg member but i have a feeling he wont back the deal today.

Shelga

How can they have an amendment to have a customs union when this is a non-negotiable, finalised deal with a third party? (Ie outside the UK)

Joe_ Public

Shelga wrote: »

How can they have an amendment to have a customs union when this is a non-negotiable, finalised deal with a third party? (Ie outside the UK)

Open to correction but i think it can only be done in relation to futute declaration so how ultimately binding it will be is a moot point. Its biggest value could just lie in potentially wrecking the bill or the 31 oct deadline at least.

prawnsambo

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Absolutely spot on. Just Guto Bebb to be fair, is a well known tory rebel and Boris Johnson hater. I dont know is he actually an erg member but i have a feeling he wont back the deal today.

Sorry, bad cut and paste by me. Meant to add Adam Afriye, the chap who wanted to have the referendum held earlier than planned. Edited my post to reflect this.