Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

liamtech

briany wrote: »

"We can't support a Brexit that would put a hard border on the island of Ireland"

"We can't support a Brexit that would put a hard border in the Irish sea"

Looks like you can't support Brexit, then.

Exactly but it is a matter of fact

GM228

So Johnson threatening to pull the Bill and call a GE if Parliament does not pass the timetable, hope he realises he can't simply call a GE.

liamtech

So Labor seem to not be whipping on this - do we think tonight's vote will pass then??

Zubeneschamali

briany wrote: »

"We can't support a Brexit that would put a hard border on the island of Ireland"

"We can't support a Brexit that would put a hard border in the Irish sea"

Looks like you can't support Brexit, then.

How many times must Labour's policy be explained? They would keep the whole UK close enough to allow no hard border, and then hold a referendum and Remain.

Joe_ Public

GM228 wrote: »

So Johnson threatening to pull the Bill and call a GE if Parliament does not pass the timetable, hope he realises he can't simply call a GE.

Lot of pressure on opposition to grant that election though. If bill goes down, where else can they feasibly go?

briany

Tea Shock wrote: »

I don't know how I've missed him but I never seen that Michael Fabricant before.

I initially thought he was someone wearing a joke Boris wig!

The first time I saw Michael Fabricant, it was like the Conservatives had got a more Borisy Boris. There's a fair few mad English-eccentric heads knocking around the Conservative party, hidden away on the back benches.

BarryD2

GM228 wrote: »

So Johnson threatening to pull the Bill and call a GE if Parliament does not pass the timetable, hope he realises he can't simply call a GE.

Boris goes for the broad picture all the time, that's just a pesky detail.

liamtech wrote: »

So Labor seem to not be whipping on this - do we think tonight's vote will pass then??

Another sign of how weak and ineffectual the Labour Party are. Full of bluff and bluster but couldn't collectively organise a piss up in a brewery at the moment.

liamtech

BarryD2 wrote: »

Boris goes for the broad picture all the time, that's just a pesky detail.



Another sign of how weak and ineffectual the Labour Party are. Full of bluff and bluster but couldn't collectively organise a piss up in a brewery at the moment.

looks like the votes today may well go for BOJO in this scenario - Those parties opposed to a hard brexit and in favor of a possible second ref - im running out of sympathy for them - they should be able to get the numbers between the SNP Labor and the Lib Dems - but its the usual nonsense - swinson hates corbyn, feeling is mutual - labor defectees berger etc al, hate corbyn etc etc etc - and round we go

briany

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

How many times must Labour's policy be explained? They would keep the whole UK close enough to allow no hard border, and then hold a referendum and Remain.

Where, exactly, is this second referendum that Corbyn keeps on 'hinting' he's going to back? Is the amendment coming today, or what? They should get a move on with it.

Joe_ Public

BarryD2 wrote: »

Boris goes for the broad picture all the time, that's just a pesky detail.



Another sign of how weak and ineffectual the Labour Party are. Full of bluff and bluster but couldn't collectively organise a piss up in a brewery at the moment.

You are underestimating labour. There was all manner of talk of 20-30 lab rebels on saturday and yet, with no 3 line whip in place, there ended up 6. Just 6! Corbyn doesnt want to see what hapened with tory expulsions and i think thats fair enough. Theres enormous pressure on lab mps at moment and to give them some credit i think it is holding together reasonably well so far.

Letwin_Larry

briany wrote: »

The first time I saw Michael Fabricant, it was like the Conservatives had got a more Borisy Boris. There's a fair few mad English-eccentric heads knocking around the Conservative party, hidden away on the back benches.

that's brillant. he looks like BoJo's & Trump's lovechild.

Kermit.de.frog

With the bill being pulled if the timetable is not agreed tonight that means Labour MPs in leave constituencies have a big decision to make - back it or lose their seats.

Labour are desperate to avoid an election at all costs. This will probably help focus minds.

farmchoice

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

With the bill being pulled if the timetable is not agreed tonight that means Labour MPs in leave constituencies have a big decision to make - back it or lose their seats.

Labour are desperate to avoid an election at all costs. This will probably help focus minds.

if you were right surely they would have voted against letwin on saturday

GM228

BarryD2 wrote: »

Boris goes for the broad picture all the time, that's just a pesky detail.

Pretty certin he also mentioned the European Commission offering an extension, another broad picture statement.

Kermit.de.frog

farmchoice wrote: »

if you were right surely they would have voted against letwin on saturday

No because that on it's own was never going to lead to an election.

If the bill is pulled it is highly likely there will be an election before Christmas.

And the tories will be licking their lips at the prospect of explaining to constituents who is responsible for the UK not having left on Oct 31st.

It's a home run.

GM228

I think a GE could throw out a few surprises, in the current climate that is Brexit anything can happen and I'm not so sure about any guarantee as to what would happen to Labour or the Conservatives after a GE to be honest.

Joe_ Public

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

No because that on it's own was never going to lead to an election.

If the bill is pulled it is highly likely there will be an election before Christmas.

And the tories will be licking their lips at the prospect of explaining to constituents who is responsible for the UK not having left on Oct 31st.

It's a home run.

No he was totally correct. If the labour mps in leave areas were solely concerned about their seats they'd have voted en masse against letwin. Only 6 did. There were commentators speculating thst there'd be any number up to 30.

Letwin_Larry

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

No because that on it's own was never going to lead to an election.

If the bill is pulled it is highly likely there will be an election before Christmas.

And the tories will be licking their lips at the prospect of explaining to constituents who is responsible for the UK not having left on Oct 31st.

It's a home run.

they have to go for a GE if this fails.
they cant be going around in never-ending circles. it's madness imo.

Joe_ Public

GM228 wrote: »

I think a GE could throw out a few surprises, in the current climate that is Brexit anything can happen and I'm not so sure about any guarantee as to what would happen to Labour or the Conservatives after a GE to be honest.

Agree. 2017 was billed as a brexit election yet ended up being as much about other issues so no reason opposition cant hope to achieve that again. Also think they could make capital out of the fact the tories seem determimed to keep no deal on the table.

Zubeneschamali

liamtech wrote: »

Those parties opposed to a hard brexit and in favor of a possible second ref - im running out of sympathy for them - they should be able to get the numbers between the SNP Labor and the Lib Dems

Where do you suggest they "should be able to get the numbers" from, exactly?

Labour - 245
SNP - 35
LD - 19


They do not have the numbers, that's why they are the opposition.

murphaph

Shelga wrote: »

How can any Labour MP vote for this legislation, if the answer to the question “Will this make my constituents poorer?” is a resounding yes.

I’d rather resign/not run in next election. Let the ignorant masses vote for someone who will just say yes to self-harm for no reason other than staying in their seat.

Yep. You expect it from a Tory but no self respecting Labour MP should vote for economic annihilation no matter what their constituents voted for. They should resign and let their constituents elect a Tory.

GM228

https://twitter.com/eucopresident/status/1186546756709945345?s=19

"But I made it clear to PM Johnson: a no-deal #Brexit will never be our decision"

Think he is signalling an extension will be granted if the WA is not voted in.

And it seems the negotiations will take a lot longer than the transition period allowed for (which is of no real surprise):-

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/22/donald-tusk-indicates-eu-would-grant-brexit-extension

Zubeneschamali

murphaph wrote: »

Yep. You expect it from a Tory but no self respecting Labour MP should vote for economic annihilation no matter what their constituents voted for. They should resign and let their constituents elect a Tory.

No, they should run hard and tell the truth, try to change some voters minds.

If their constituents elect a Tory, so be it, they did their best and lost.

is_that_so

Tusk saying that EU are likely to grant extension request.

Letwin_Larry

GM228 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/eucopresident/status/1186546756709945345?s=19

"But I made it clear to PM Johnson: a no-deal #Brexit will never be our decision"

Think he is signalling an extension will be granted if the WA is not voted in.

dunno he might be signalling the exact opposite. maybe they've had enough and are going to pull the plug on them.

unlikely, but who knows what this circus of clowns has yet to offer us.

briany

What happens if Johnson's deal is voted through 'in principle'? Does that mean the UK will definitely leave the EU on 31/10?

Zubeneschamali

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

dunno he might be signalling the exact opposite.

He has already acknowledged receipt of the extension request letter, and now in so many words he says "a no-deal #Brexit will never be our decision"

If the UK do not pass the WAB, Tusk is guaranteeing an extension rather than no-deal crashout at the end of the month.

He is not hinting or signalling - he is saying it in plain English.

Zubeneschamali

briany wrote: »

What happens if Johnson's deal is voted through 'in principle'? Does that mean the UK will definitely leave the EU on 31/10?

No.

[Edit] the chance for an In Principle vote was last Saturday, and they didn't have that vote. Instead they voted that the agreement would be accepted if the WA Bill is passed, and now they are going to have debate, amendments and votes on the WAB.

So if the WAB passes all stages this week, the WA is ratified. Then it is over to the EU parliament, who probably don't have time to ratify before 31st, so there'd be a short technical extension and they'd be out mid November.

If the WAB does not pass, either voted down or pulled by the Government, there would need to be a longer extension, maybe to January or June or next October, who knows.

GM228

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

dunno he might be signalling the exact opposite. maybe they've had enough and are going to pull the plug on them.

unlikely, but who knows what this circus of clowns has yet to offer us.

It's funny when you stand back and look at the shenanigans in the UK, the likes of the prorogation scandal, rushed bills, no impact statements, humbug comments etc and the EU are the ones referred to as the circus of clowns.

liamtech

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Where do you suggest they "should be able to get the numbers" from, exactly?

Labour - 245
SNP - 35
LD - 19


They do not have the numbers, that's why they are the opposition.

Former Tories - 21 who were expelled (and yes i accept that where they will vote is not a forgone conclusion)

Change UK -5

Caroline Lucas

Sylvia Hermon (campaigned remain)

Thats roughly 327 if everyone listed voted with the Opposition/remainer/softbrexit block- and there would undoubtedly be abstentions - and given they are about to get a ECO-United Ireland, The DUP would also be influential with their seats

I get what your saying, just because the Government no longer has a majority, doesnt necessarily mean the Opposition benches do?

But they are CLOSER to a majority than BoJo

Happy to discuss