Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Letwin_Larry

there's no question some in the EU are losing patience,

https://news.sky.com/video/furious-eu-brexit-chief-slams-westminster-11841582

Zubeneschamali

liamtech wrote: »

Former Tories - 21 who were expelled (and yes i accept that where they will vote is not a forgone conclusion)

They are mostly still members of the Tory party, just not members of the Parliamentary party. They are also mostly pro Brexit, they were expelled for being anti No Deal, not anti Brexit.

They are unlikely to vote for a referendum or a Customs Union as a bloc, much more likely to vote for a Brexit deal.

Letwin_Larry

GM228 wrote: »

It's funny when you stand back and look at the shenanigans in the UK, the likes of the prorogation scandal, rushed bills, no impact statements, humbug comments etc and the EU are the ones referred to as the circus of clowns.

let me clarify please.
i really meant the whole Brexit business and the HoC in particular.

the EU has acted like adults throughout, but even they are growing increasingly frustrated after 3 years of this as the above clip shows.

is_that_so

https://twitter.com/GeorgeWParker/status/1186642949876129792

GM228

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

let me clarify please.
i really meant the whole Brexit business and the HoC in particular.

the EU has acted like adults throughout, but even they are growing increasingly frustrated after 3 years of this as the above clip shows.

My apologies, I read it as if you saying what the EU would offer.

prawnsambo

is_that_so wrote: »

https://twitter.com/GeorgeWParker/status/1186642949876129792

As I'm tired of saying, the EU won't grant an extension of a few weeks, they'll at least give the three months asked for. And they will (as before) allow an exit on the first day of the month following the passing and ratification of the WA in all stages. It's mad that there are people commenting on Twitter with such authority when they haven't read the salient documents.

SeaBreezes

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

dunno he might be signalling the exact opposite. maybe they've had enough and are going to pull the plug on them.

unlikely, but who knows what this circus of clowns has yet to offer us.

Who's 'Us'? In Ireland?

For the last few years the EU has done exactly as it said it would at every turn.

There is absolutely no evidence of any duplicity at any stage..

On the other hand. UK gov? Brexit parties? Brexit campaign? Well, let's just say Led by donkeys have plenty of ammunition...

I feel so incredibly sorry for UK residents. They have the impact assessment for this deal done but won't release it. Just like yellow hammer. Each person in uk 2,000 pounds worse off per annum!!

liamtech

prawnsambo wrote: »

As I'm tired of saying, the EU won't grant an extension of a few weeks, they'll at least give the three months asked for. And they will (as before) allow an exit on the first day of the month following the passing and ratification of the WA in all stages. It's mad that there are people commenting on Twitter with such authority when they haven't read the salient documents.

Would you agree that the EU are giving BoJo a chance to get his deal across the line? i suspect if they immediately gave a 3 month extension then there would be no excuse (on either side HOC) for not having an election -

And in the case of the election do you believe JC would actually push for an 'Ill get a better deal (renegotiate)' PLUS referendum - cause that seems to be Labor - Renegotiate and Referendum - would he have a chance in that scenario?

Joe_ Public

Is there any hurry on eu to make any immediate announcement? I dont see any. If johnson gets through tonight, then its all on home straight. If he's stymied again, they can see what develops from that, if they get to an election commitment which would make decisiom a lot easier - extension to next june would be my guess. If theres no clear indication of where the process is going, that does make it a bit more difficult.

PropJoe10

Dominic Grieve is a really impressive speaker.

Spanish Eyes

PropJoe10 wrote: »

Dominic Grieve is a really impressive speaker.

He is indeed, as are many other Tories, like them or not. All of the articulate ones have been sacked though. Typical scorched earth policy now. Left with the idiots like M Francois and JR Mogg etc. of course we are.

In response to a post I made yesterday about Johnson's rather tough prospects in his Uxbridge constituency, many mentioned that J would be parachuted into Grieve's. Honestly the machinations going on now are just so absolutely personal and awful. How Tory voters cannot see through this is mind boggling. But anyway, I am whistling in the wind I suppose at this stage.

PropJoe10

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

He is indeed, as are many other Tories, like them or not. All of the articulate ones have been sacked though. Typical scorched earth policy now. Left with the idiots like M Francois and JR Mogg etc. of course we are.

In response to a post I made yesterday about Johnson's rather tough prospects in his Uxbridge constituency, many mentioned that J would be parachuted into Grieve's. Honestly the machinations going on now are just so absolutely personal and awful. How Tory voters cannot see through this is mind boggling. But anyway, I am whistling in the wind I suppose at this stage.

I read something about that, pretty poor form and indicative of the way that the Tory party is developing, but not surprising. Interesting to hear that Grieve is voting against both the bill and the program motion later - wonder will many other moderate ex-Tories join him. Especially against the program motion which is ridiculous and disrespectful to MPs at best.

Junkyard Tom

I think it was Ken Maginnis who sold the GFA to his Unionist colleagues by claiming that every time they rejected a deal what they returned to was worse.



The man had a point it seems.

FrancieBrady

Sammy had the air of a man who knows the game is up tbh.

Spanish Eyes

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Sammy had the air of a man who knows the game is up tbh.

I am trying my best not be judgmental here, but with abortion and SSM being introduced soon also, it is very difficult indeed for me to not put my Schadenfreude hat on WRG Dup.

Joe_ Public

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

He is indeed, as are many other Tories, like them or not. All of the articulate ones have been sacked though. Typical scorched earth policy now. Left with the idiots like M Francois and JR Mogg etc. of course we are.

In response to a post I made yesterday about Johnson's rather tough prospects in his Uxbridge constituency, many mentioned that J would be parachuted into Grieve's. Honestly the machinations going on now are just so absolutely personal and awful. How Tory voters cannot see through this is mind boggling. But anyway, I am whistling in the wind I suppose at this stage.

Very silly man if he tried to parachute himself into grieves constituency. Not only would he have to contend with grieve as an independent, it would very easy for all other parties, including lab, to stand aside in support of grieve. Running away from his constituency is not a good look for any pm, let alone one so full of bluster as this one. You'd never know, but dont think he has any real option but to stay where he is and fight.

FrancieBrady

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

but with abortion and SSM being introduced soon also, .

Point of order: SSM and Abortion rights became legal at one minute past midnight today.

Spanish Eyes

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Point of order: SSM and Abortion rights became legal at one minute past midnight today.

Acceded to by the Speaker!

OK the legislation will be later on, but it is a shoo in, if the Assembly continues to mess around and refuse to reconvene anytime soon

The Assembly yesterday refused to appoint a Speaker and Deputy Speaker so it all went South after that (pun).

DUP must be raging, and I don't care much anymore now. I think if all other reps had said NO to abortion and SSM, they would have said YES. It is very difficult for me not to castigate them, but I will try my best to be civil.

is_that_so

Someone at the coalface offering reflections.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/22/operation-yellowhammer-brexit-preparations

ToBeFrank123

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Acceded to by the Speaker!

OK the legislation will be later on, but it is a shoo in, if the Assembly continues to mess around and refuse to reconvene anytime soon

The Assembly yesterday refused to appoint a Speaker and Deputy Speaker so it all went South after that (pun).

DUP must be raging, and I don't care much anymore now. I think if all other reps had said NO to abortion and SSM, they would have said YES. It is very difficult for me not to castigate them, but I will try my best to be civil.

The latest in a long line of own goals from the DUP. They've long had a disrespect for the Assembly and only belatedly signed up for the GFA when they thought power was near, but generally are quite happy to outsource big decisions to Westminister. Only to then cry foul when those decisions go against them. Another protest party at best with no interest in making unpopular decisions.

devnull

Just heard John Redwood talking about no such thing as no deal as its either having a withdrawal agreement or not and not no deal.

Then there is the number 10 source saying that Boris is ringing round leaders to tell them not to grant extension which clearly is frustrating the Benn act?

But starting to think most of this number 18 source stuff is a variation on dead cat strategy being used as cover for the real reasons for things.

prawnsambo

liamtech wrote: »

Would you agree that the EU are giving BoJo a chance to get his deal across the line? i suspect if they immediately gave a 3 month extension then there would be no excuse (on either side HOC) for not having an election -

And in the case of the election do you believe JC would actually push for an 'Ill get a better deal (renegotiate)' PLUS referendum - cause that seems to be Labor - Renegotiate and Referendum - would he have a chance in that scenario?

The EU well know that this isn't possible. But they also know that most MPs couldn't read a line of text without forgetting how it started. So they'll wait as long as possible before granting an extension. Partly because of the above and partly because there are so many possible outcomes, not least a GE that could manifest in the next week.

I have no idea what Corbyn will do. But polls aren't looking good for him at the moment. So an election manifesto is needed first.

liamtech

prawnsambo wrote: »

The EU well know that this isn't possible. But they also know that most MPs couldn't read a line of text without forgetting how it started. So they'll wait as long as possible before granting an extension. Partly because of the above and partly because there are so many possible outcomes, not least a GE that could manifest in the next week.

I have no idea what Corbyn will do. But polls aren't looking good for him at the moment. So an election manifesto is needed first.

Well sky and the Beeb definitely stating that this is the closest of the votes, and is simply to difficult to call - more labor leavers may well vote for this - So yea i guess all eyes on 7pm me thinks

Do we fully know whether a defeat of the first will cancel the second vote?

My understanding is

VOTE ONE - Bill itself putting beginning process of translating deal to law

VOTE TWO - timing and schedule

EDIT

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-50142367

Im totally confused cause the BBC just stated first is bill itself - and this article, also BEEB says if timing is defested bill will be pulled


????

Do we have one of those very informative charts per chance - with all remaining outcomes and timelines?

sondagefaux

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

most of these poorer areas voted LEAVE.
these areas have been ignored and neglected for decades, certainly since Thatcher destroyed them.
so along comes the referendum and for the first time in ages they have come out and engage with the political process and vote, but the REMAIN side is desperate to ignore/twart their vote.

it's no wonder they are cheesed off.

Many affluent areas had a majority vote in favour of Leave too.

The biggest indicator of voting Leave was age, closely followed by formal educational attainment level.

prawnsambo

liamtech wrote: »

Well sky and the Beeb definitely stating that this is the closest of the votes, and is simply to difficult to call - more labor leavers may well vote for this - So yea i guess all eyes on 7pm me thinks

Do we fully know whether a defeat of the first will cancel the second vote?

My understanding is

VOTE ONE - Bill itself putting beginning process of translating deal to law

VOTE TWO - timing and schedule

EDIT

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-50142367

Im totally confused cause the BBC just stated first is bill itself - and this article, also BEEB says if timing is defested bill will be pulled


????

Do we have one of those very informative charts per chance - with all remaining outcomes and timelines?

The Bill will then go through committee stage, which is where it will start to attract amendments like flies to excrement. So the programme vote is important as it cuts short the amount of time available for this. Hence the threat to pull the bill if the programme doesn't go through.

Spanish Eyes

sondagefaux wrote: »

Many affluent areas had a majority vote in favour of Leave too.

The biggest indicator of voting Leave was age, closely followed by formal educational attainment level.

Eh, there were disaffected ignored in so called poorer areas voting to Leave too, you know.... in the hope things might improve for them.

Unfortunately the Parties that gave them an austerity kicking do not care about the great unwashed At All, and will continue to kick them when they are down. They don't care.

Sad times for the aspirations of those people, and everyone else, it has to be said. (I sound like Marian Finucane there).

Spanish Eyes

Well if the progamme vote is passed, it will be a fait accompli now, kind of like the opposite to filibustering to oppose it.

That MPs could actually vote for such a thing is beyond me now. But why am I surprised?

I place my trust in the Lords. They won't stand for this bullsh!t. I hope anyway.

But not sure if the Progamme Vote needs Lords approval. Anyone know?

sondagefaux

prawnsambo wrote: »

As I'm tired of saying, the EU won't grant an extension of a few weeks, they'll at least give the three months asked for. And they will (as before) allow an exit on the first day of the month following the passing and ratification of the WA in all stages. It's mad that there are people commenting on Twitter with such authority when they haven't read the salient documents.

The European Parliament will not consent to the Withdrawal Agreement unless and until it has been ratified by the UK.

The consent of the European Parliament can only be granted if a majority of MEPS in a plenary session of the parliament votes to grant consent.

There is a plenary session of the European Parliament on Thursday. The next scheduled plenary session after this week is in mid-November.

It's not going to be possible to call an emergency plenary session next week as too many MEPS are away on visits etc.

Once the EP grants its consent, the European Council can then approve the WA and it can come into force.

If the UK ratification isn't completed by this Thursday, there is no way for the UK to leave with the Withdrawal Agreement in place by 31st October.

If the EU does grant an extension until 31st January, as requested by Johnson, the UK could still leave earlier as Article 50 says that the EU treaties cease to apply to a withdrawing state as soon as a Withdrawal Agreement is concluded, which is possible from mid-November.

sondagefaux

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Eh, there were disaffected ignored in so called poorer areas voting to Leave too, you know.... in the hope things might improve for them.

Unfortunately the Parties that gave them an austerity kicking do not care about the great unwashed At All, and will continue to kick them when they are down. They don't care.

Sad times for the aspirations of those people, and everyone else, it has to be said. (I sound like Marian Finucane there).

My post was in response to an implication that only poorer areas voted majority Leave. That was not the case.

Capt'n Midnight

Joe_ Public wrote: »

The wild animals and circuses act was in relation to 19 animals. Na na na na na 19!

Just for the record ,
- because this is just as important as the future of the 66 million people living in the UK.

Is it Lions and tigers and bears, oh my!

Nope. There's six reindeer, four zebra, camels, three raccoons, a fox, a macaw, and a zebu.