Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

PropJoe10

Its unfortunate that the government are acting like two year old children. Corbyn made them an offer, Ken Clarke even suggested they take an hours recess for them to reconsider business for the next few days. But they refused.

FrancieBrady

Water John wrote: »

The DUP have given Johnson his bloodied nose. the 10 votes would have got his 3 day scrutiny of the legislation through and given him the possibility of leaving by Oct 31st.

It's a bizarre thing to inflict...the Fixed Term thing. Forcing a government that cannot win anything significant to carry on is promoting pantomime. I wonder will that be overturned in the future.

Joe_ Public

Liam Fox trying his best to blame the whole thing on labour. Hilarious! What is the job of the opposition? To oppose. Would suggest, beyond much commentary to the contrary, that they haven't actually done all that badly.

And job of government? To lead, to establish consensus, to get things done. How have they done with that then, Mr Fox?

briany

derrymcorry wrote: »

A) What is the exact definition of 'fairly clear that a majority of the north would want unification' in the context of the holding of the border poll? Does that mean the SoS can hold it following opinion polls? Censuses? Nationalist majority in the Assembly? I know it doesn't say in the GFA but what are the most likely conditions for it being held?

I don't think that should stop a border poll being held.

C) I couldn't agree more.

I'd say a healthy nationalist majority in the Assembly (if it ever sits again) would be a reasonably good indicator of an appetite for a United Ireland. I don't think there's any event specified in the GFA that is supposed to indicate that a majority will is there for a UI, though, but I'm open to correction on that.

The reason I say a politically-charged backdrop would not be for a border poll is because it would lead to people voting with the hearts rather than their heads and not stopping to consider the practicalities of the thing. At the worst, it would be like Ireland's own Brexit. Not a solid foundation for a new state, imo.

Also, a border poll can't be a good solution for Brexit because you'd ideally want the preparation to take a while, where both sides can make their arguments and so on and put together very clear, detailed proposals on what their respective futures would look like. Can't be a kangaroo referendum ala Brexit. I'd suggest the timeframe be of similar length to the currently mooted Brexit transition period. In my opinion, a UI is very unlikely to get over the line before an economically-damaging Brexit, as the pragmatic Unionists and Nationalists are more likely to vote to stay in the UK and continue on with the NHS and generally what they know, rather than taking a leap into the unknown. To hold one today, I'd say a UI would be defeated around 60-40.

Imreoir2

SeaBreezes wrote: »

That's something I don't understand. no matter what amendments they add, then they have to go back to EU and ask again and again? They're trying to haggle? What happens if EU reject suggested amendments?

It depends on the amendment. If it is for a referendum, then all the EU has to agree is an extension long enough to allow one to be held. Given they EU has constantly said that an extension must have a purpose, such a purpose is likely to be acceptable to the EU.

If on the other hand the amendment is to strip out the NI frontstop, the EU is likely to tell the UK to go whistle.

Duane Dibbley

What possible amendments would the EU accept besides a referendum on the deal?

Joe_ Public

listermint wrote: »

Election solves nothing.

Run a deal decider referendum. Including a deal. Complete exit no deal and remain.


Then they should decide this in complete because it's not being decided on people's behalf the people can choose.

You need the parliament numbers for referendum. Are they there? Not sure they are.

Imreoir2

FrancieBrady wrote: »

It's a bizarre thing to inflict...the Fixed Term thing. Forcing a government that cannot win anything significant to carry in is promoting pantomime. I wonder will that be overturned in the future.

I may be wrong, but I think it was brought in at the time of the coalition between the Lib-Dems and the Torys to reasure the Lib-Dems that the Torys could not pull the rug on the government whenever it suited them. Obviously it has had a terrible impact on their political system and I can't see any government with a majority holding onto it.

Letwin_Larry

PropJoe10 wrote: »

Its unfortunate that the government are acting like two year old children. Corbyn made them an offer, Ken Clarke even suggested they take an hours recess for them to reconsider business for the next few days. But they refused.

i agree. why they cannot sit down like adults and agree a delay sufficient to consider this Bill i just dont know.
he's got the darned thing over the line or so we thought.

this is dysfunctional on so many levels

Kermit.de.frog

Seems to be a flextention is likely.

i.e EU gives until end of January but UK can leave any time up to then if it approves the deal.

This also opens up election space + time to get it through.

Itssoeasy

Seeing as the MPs in the House of Commons are quoting dantes inferno amongst other things, can I describe this whole brexit mess in the way Mr Evans who was a member of Robert scotts failed journey to the South Pole in 1912(or 14) when he said "I'm just going outside, and I may be some time." I don't know about anyone else but for something most of no hand act or part in I'm utterly **** sick of brexit at this stage in 2019.

devnull

Cummings spin machine in full flow now
https://twitter.com/Conservatives/status/1186719122777952257

Once again the Tories being economical with the truth, the Brexit deal passed its first key hurdle in the Commons - not parliament and still needs to go to the amendments stage, but no doubt that stage will be dressed up as being something that has been created by remainers rather than normal procedure.

briany

FrancieBrady wrote: »

It's a bizarre thing to inflict...the Fixed Term thing. Forcing a government that cannot win anything significant to carry on is promoting pantomime. I wonder will that be overturned in the future.

Maybe Boris Johnson and his cronies should stop to consider that if they hadn't taken such a hard line and alienated a good chunk of their own party, they wouldn't be running a minority government. Funny how the Cons always gloss over that tidbit when crying about how they opposition won't grant an election. They're running a minority government because they're representing a minority viewpoint.

Mr.Nice Guy

https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1186718369342509059

https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1186720573616996353

Doesn't sound like the EU will be doing anything dramatic.

RickBlaine

Agreeing to the 31st Jan deadline as per the Benn Act is the most neutral thing they can do.

Joe_ Public

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Seeing as the MPs in the House of Commons are quoting dantes inferno amongst other things, can I describe this whole brexit mess in the way Mr Evans who was a member of Robert scotts failed journey to the South Pole in 1912(or 14) when he said "I'm just going outside, and I may be some time." I don't know about anyone else but for something most of no hand act or part in I'm utterly **** sick of brexit at this stage in 2019.

Titus Oates!

I'm sure many agree with you. I think its fascinating personally but does really need to move onto election if thats obvious next step.

hotmail.com

Dying in a ditch will be forgotten.

Itssoeasy

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Titus Oates!

I'm sure many agree with you. I think its fascinating personally but does really need to move onto election if thats obvious next step.

Was it ? Well my apologies to the family of mr Evans for killing off before he did and to the members of this thread for an error. Ah yes hadn't Oates feet become completely frostbiten and he just had enough(can't blame him when you read about the voyage) ?

Danzy

Duane Dibbley wrote: »

What possible amendments would the EU accept besides a referendum on the deal?

There isn't a reason to think the EU would accept a ref on the deal.

Talk from Govts in the EU is a short technical extension so he can get it passed.

Spanish Eyes

I may be totally wrong, but I doubt anyone really WANTS to leave the EU at all.

The posturing and drama is for their constituents, who may be equally daft, and fed by the Daily Mail but there we are.

I am getting the feeling that leaving the EU is just a totally ridiculous thing now, but if they slowly negotiate over a few years well then it might happen with mutual consent.

BarryD2

I suppose the question is now: assuming a decent extension is given, will the Tories & Labour now take their chances and agree on a general election. That might well sort the matter out one way or the other or somewhere in between. It'd be a very interesting election, all bets would be off - not sure if any sitting MP would feel entirely safe, including the bums up North.

Itssoeasy

RickBlaine wrote: »

Agreeing to the 31st Jan deadline as per the Benn Act is the most neutral thing they can do.

Well yes because now the brexiteer crowd can't say this extension was forced on them by the EU given that it's a House of Commons date.

Letwin_Larry

it seems to me that both sides consider the other side to be complete shysters. (can you blame them?)
trust has completely broken down with each side expecting the other to shaft them given the slightest opportunity.
a bit like one of wildlife docs with 2 reptiles locked in a battle to the death.

is_that_so

BarryD2 wrote: »

I suppose the question is now: assuming a decent extension is given, will the Tories & Labour now take their chances and agree on a general election. That might well sort the matter out one way or the other or somewhere in between. It'd be a very interesting election, all bets would be off - not sure if any sitting MP would feel entirely safe, including the bums up North.

Corbyn said that Labour would work with them on the amount of time. That to me is almost a tacit acceptance that the game is all but up.

briany

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1186718369342509059

https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1186720573616996353

Doesn't sound like the EU will be doing anything dramatic.

Yeah, except the very act of offering a short technical extension or a longer one has an effect on the attitude of UK politicians toward getting a deal done. If the extension is shorter, UK politicians will feel a greater pressure to act. This means that the EU should decide very carefully.

Spanish Eyes

hotmail.com wrote: »

Dying in a ditch will be forgotten.

Just like the anti democratic Proroguation of Parliament which was not used to good effect either, And the so called Anti Democratic Backstop and so on.

It is all about what happens TODAY, and all else is forgotten really. Am I mad thinking this?

is_that_so

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Just like the anti democratic Proroguation of Parliament which was not used to good effect either, And the so called Anti Democratic Backstop and so on.

It is all about what happens TODAY, and all else is forgotten really. Am I mad thinking this?

Yeah they are finally closer to passing the deal than they have ever been.

Joe_ Public

is_that_so wrote: »

Corbyn said that Labour would work with them on the amount of time. That to me is almost a tacit acceptance that the game is all but up.

Not way i would read it. Just corbyn rubbing it in and taking little bit of high moral ground when it was going, knowing fully that johnson would reject it anyway. Even if he accepted, wouldnt change much, just push big decisions a bit further down the line which suits opposition well enough. Allow lot more scrutiny of bill too and juicy stories of ecomonic disadvantage to emerge!

am i bovvered

briany wrote: »

A) That's not how the border poll is supposed to work. It's supposed to be called at a time when it's fairly clear that a majority in the North would want unification. It's not a mechanism to allow the UK to exit the EU smoothly.

Things up north are a bit politically charged at the moment. I don't think this would be the best backdrop for a border poll.

C) Brexit was brought about without hardly a thought given to NI and the peace process. There is no easy answer to the questions being posed to the Brexit movement. They made their bed. Now they must lie in it.

This is such an important post.
Let’s not let a rushed UI vite become our version of this Brexit nightmare !
There needs to be a clear consensus look at the damage 52% to 48% does to a society.

Danzy

Relief in Brussels and Dublin tonight that the first vote on it had a 30 vote majority.