Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

prawnsambo

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Seems to be a flextention is likely.

i.e EU gives until end of January but UK can leave any time up to then if it approves the deal.

This also opens up election space + time to get it through.

The current extension is flexible. Whenever the WA is ratified, it becomes operative on the first of the next month. The previous one was also flexible but with different parameters to suit the situation that existed then.

is_that_so

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Not way i would read it. Just corbyn rubbing it in and taking little bit of high moral ground when it was going, knowing fully that johnson would reject it anyway. Even if he accepted, wouldnt change much, just push big decisions a bit further down the line which suits opposition well enough. Allow lot more scrutiny of bill too and juicy stories of ecomonic disadvantage to emerge!

Nah, he was onto a loser once Boris came back with a deal, even more so now that it has "passed". It's face saving at this stage and offering to be part of the solution and not being the problem. I think the message of the first vote was this is all but over or will be once we've taken a good look at it.

Joe_ Public

is_that_so wrote: »

Nah, he was onto a loser once Boris came back with a deal, even more so now that it has "passed". It's face saving at this stage and offering to be part of the solution and not being the problem. I think the message of the first vote was this is all but over or will be once we've taken a good look at it.

Ok. Thats your view.

jimmycrackcorm

devnull wrote: »

Just heard John Redwood talking about no such thing as no deal as its either having a withdrawal agreement or not and not no deal.

Then there is the number 10 source saying that Boris is ringing round leaders to tell them not to grant extension which clearly is frustrating the Benn act?

But starting to think most of this number 18 source stuff is a variation on dead cat strategy being used as cover for the real reasons for things.

One person I'm sure he isn't running is Angela Merkel after the previous leak. Because I think she did really tell him NI needed to stay within EU customs and Leo then sold the idea.

joe40

Going slightly off topic, but I was just contrasting the way the Irish government has treated NI and the way Boris Johnson did.
Ultimately a fine Gael government has zero interest in pursuing a United Ireland agenda or a republican agenda, despite what UK gutter press might suggest.
Most of Ireland economic activity is south and east very little in border regions so I think they would have coped with border infrastructure better than the all Ireland negative impact of a "no deal exit".
But imo the Irish government put concerns of the gfa and the welfare of NI residents above the economic hit Ireland would take in "no deal scenario"
That is massively to their credit and supported by all parties.
Compare that to Boris promising the Moon and stars to the DUP and then selling them out.
Why can't the DUP not see there is no interest in Irish politics, of forcing a UI. Why can they not see the benefits of closer cooperation with the south instead of this built in animosity.
They fawn after the British establishment and the Tory party, who blatantly despise them. Kinda sad to see really.

Enzokk

This is an interesting tweet,

https://twitter.com/TerryReintke/status/1186594060234039302?s=20

So the EU will not hasten the UK in making a decision, it is up to the PM to get his deal through.

As for the votes tonight, Johnson and No.10 has again been shown up and the likes of Kuenssberg that parroted the news that if they would lose the vote program motion they would pull the bill has been shown up for the propaganda machines they are being used for.

As for No.10 claiming this was a vote for his deal, it is this kind of dishonesty that makes my blood boil. Yes there were votes to just get it done but others were to get it to the stage where they could add amendments to the bill as well. It is dishonest, in fact it is lying, to claim this is a vote for his deal. But what do you expect of a liar and cheat running the country.

I am really concerned for the UK, even if we are relatively shielded from the effect of Brexit with the deal we have agreed, but the ordinary person who has been led astray by liars who will suffer the most. It is not fair that these people should suffer because MPs are too freaking lazy to read the bill or are tired of Brexit. They should not suffer because the millionaires in government will be fine and their friends will make a killing from deregulation.

At the end of the day we will suffer as well if the UK suffers long term. They are still an important partner of ours and we should want to see them as strong as possible, but they are making it very hard to root for them to turn this doomed ship around.

liamtech

With the Deal bill technically being passed (but not the timetable) - Is it not permissible for the EU Parliament to ratify on their end????

Where is Guy Verhofstadt on this i wonder? - he was rightly infuriated earlier

Letwin_Larry

the EU leadership must be collectively tearing its hair out at this stage.

devnull

liamtech wrote: »

With the Deal bill technically being passed (but not the timetable) - Is it not permissible for the EU Parliament to ratify on their end????

The deal hasn't been passed, it's just gone to the next stage.

prawnsambo

liamtech wrote: »

With the Deal bill technically being passed (but not the timetable) - Is it not permissible for the EU Parliament to ratify on their end????

Where is Guy Verhofstadt on this i wonder? - he was rightly infuriated earlier

It isn't technically or any other way passed. It has just got through to committee stage. It has a lot of travelling to go yet.

liamtech

With the Deal bill technically being passed (but not the timetable) - Is it not permissible for the EU Parliament to ratify on their end????

Where is Guy Verhofstadt on this i wonder? - he was rightly infuriating
Oh there he is

https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1186733216251691009

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">You’re all thinking: another extension. I am thinking: another three weeks listening to Farage <a href="https://t.co/Cob2wPmghP">pic.twitter.com/Cob2wPmghP</a></p>&mdash; Guy Verhofstadt (@guyverhofstadt) <a href="

https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1186733216251691009?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&quot;&gt;October

22, 2019</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js&quot; charset="utf-8"></script>

prawnsambo

liamtech wrote: »

With the Deal bill technically being passed (but not the timetable) - Is it not permissible for the EU Parliament to ratify on their end????

Where is Guy Verhofstadt on this i wonder? - he was rightly infuriating
Oh there he is

https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1186733216251691009

A bills stages through the Houses:

HoC
1st reading
2nd reading
Committee stage
Report stage
3rd reading

HoL
1st reading
2nd reading
Committee stage
Report stage
3rd reading

Royal Assent.

A Dub in Glasgo

liamtech wrote: »

With the Deal bill technically being passed (but not the timetable) - Is it not permissible for the EU Parliament to ratify on their end????

Where is Guy Verhofstadt on this i wonder? - he was rightly infuriated earlier

This is misreading the vote, the deal has gone to the amendment stage. It is very possible that the HoC amends the legislation that is not compatible with the deal agreed with the EU therefore it is not the agreed WA

joe40

I thought I had a handle on this Brexit but must admit now I'm confused and apologies if this stupid but is this where we are now?
The deal has been passed but not the timetable.
MPs have supported the deal but then want to add amendment s which will change the deal they have supported. So they're not really supporting the deal. Is that what is happening now or have I got it all wrong?

Mr.Nice Guy

Enzokk wrote: »

I am really concerned for the UK, even if we are relatively shielded from the effect of Brexit with the deal we have agreed, but the ordinary person who has been led astray by liars who will suffer the most. It is not fair that these people should suffer because MPs are too freaking lazy to read the bill or are tired of Brexit. They should not suffer because the millionaires in government will be fine and their friends will make a killing from deregulation.

At the end of the day we will suffer as well if the UK suffers long term. They are still an important partner of ours and we should want to see them as strong as possible, but they are making it very hard to root for them to turn this doomed ship around.

The UK is finished long term. If the Scots have any sense they will head for the life rafts and vote for independence and a return to the EU. Unionists in NI meanwhile are starting to realise that not even the conservatives across the water care about them. The older generation will cling to the fleg, but younger voters have different priorities. Even the Welsh are starting to have conversations about their future.

Spanish Eyes

if Bercow had not been Speaker for this session, there would have been no scrutiny of the lengths some would have gone to achieve their aims.

I give him 10/10 and wish him a very happy exit from the Speaker's Chair. He will go far.

The next incumbent has a hard act to follow, and I will miss the drama.

prawnsambo

joe40 wrote: »

I thought I had a handle on this Brexit but must admit now I'm confused and apologies if this stupid but is this where we are now?
The deal has been passed but not the timetable.
MPs have supported the deal but then want to add amendment s which will change the deal they have supported. So they're not really supporting the deal. Is that what is happening now or have I got it all wrong?

Look at my post above. It's just got through the 2nd reading in the house of commons. The programme motion is not a legislative stage, just a procedural issue as to how long it takes up on the timetable.

Enzokk

liamtech wrote: »

With the Deal bill technically being passed (but not the timetable) - Is it not permissible for the EU Parliament to ratify on their end????

Where is Guy Verhofstadt on this i wonder? - he was rightly infuriated earlier

This is just propaganda, they have moved to the next stage where they should study the deal and where amendments could be tabled. If there is an amendment the government doesn't like, like a permanent customs union, then it is likely the government could vote against their own deal.

So please, the bill has not technically been passed, not by a long shot. In fact the votes tonight shows in what a precarious position Johnson is, he doesn't have the votes to get anything through, not by begging or threatening.

To add to my earlier tweet about where the European Parliament stands, here is another MEP advocating the obvious for anyone but those who know they sold a defective product and cannot honor the promises they made,

https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1186611134993960960?s=20

There has to be a second referendum on the deal vs Remain. If the people vote for the deal then Labour will support the government in getting it through.

liamtech

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

This is misreading the vote, the deal has gone to the amendment stage. It is very possible that the HoC amends the legislation that is not compatible with the deal agreed with the EU therefore it is not the agreed WA

Ok so we are effectively being spun a great success but again its unicorns - splendid

Still the EU could push ahead -

Enzokk

joe40 wrote: »

I thought I had a handle on this Brexit but must admit now I'm confused and apologies if this stupid but is this where we are now?
The deal has been passed but not the timetable.
MPs have supported the deal but then want to add amendment s which will change the deal they have supported. So they're not really supporting the deal. Is that what is happening now or have I got it all wrong?

It would have been embarrassing had Johnson lost the first vote but it would have meant little as MPs are also aware they have to give the deal a chance. If they had rejected it at the first stage it would have allowed Johnson more ammunition in his People vs Parliament narrative he will fight the next GE on. The vote was only to move it on to the next stage, not on the deal itself. You cannot vote against the deal or add amendments if it doesn't move forward, so this vote was not an approval of the deal no matter how much No.10 want people to think it was.

joe40

prawnsambo wrote: »

Look at my post above. It's just got through the 2nd reading in the house of commons. The programme motion is not a legislative stage, just a procedural issue as to how long it takes up on the timetable.

Thanks makes it clearer, I hadn't seen your post when typing.
So Boris making a big fuss of the deal been passed is not fully true. Surprise surprise

Kermit.de.frog

Dutch politicians have nothing better to do than get involved in a sovereign matter for the UK?

The UK voted to leave.

They should mind their own business.

liamtech

just announced Tusk has advised EU27 to accept an extension in line with the Benn Act - the January 2020 one -

prawnsambo

joe40 wrote: »

Thanks makes it clearer, I hadn't seen your post when typing.
So Boris making a big fuss of the deal been passed is not fully true. Surprise surprise

No. His real problems are just beginning. Because he's lost the programme motion, he is now going to have to let it be scrutinised over a longer time period. And that's where it will get really sticky. All the holes will be found and it will be amended to fix them.

Enzokk

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Dutch politicians have nothing better to do than get involved in a sovereign matter for the UK?

The UK voted to leave.

They should mind their own business.

The European Parliament has been waiting to vote on Brexit for almost a year but the UK hasn't been able to agree to a deal. They are proposing a sensible way forward. I suspect the UK will not listen to the advice but there is nothing wrong with trying to help out their friends (as Johnson is so find of calling the EU) from the UK.

As for the extension, here is the Tusk view,

https://twitter.com/eucopresident/status/1186737952313004032?s=20

So he will recommend they accept the request as written.

J Mysterio

Hurrache wrote: »

Who'd have thought that Michael Collins would be quoted in the HoC in a debate on Brexit when this deal is said to be a step to freedom!

https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1186708343378927616?s=19

That is just totally surreal.

joe40

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Dutch politicians have nothing better to do than get involved in a sovereign matter for the UK?

The UK voted to leave.

They should mind their own business.

She was asked her opinion by the British media, the BBC no less, and gave her personal opinion.

prawnsambo

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Dutch politicians have nothing better to do than get involved in a sovereign matter for the UK?

The UK voted to leave.

They should mind their own business.

They're MEPs. They get to vote on the WA too y'know.

GM228

prawnsambo wrote: »

A bills stages through the Houses:

HoC
1st reading
2nd reading
Committee stage
Report stage
3rd reading

HoL
1st reading
2nd reading
Committee stage
Report stage
3rd reading

Royal Assent.

Your forgetting the Parliamentary Ping Pong stage which would come after the HoL third reading, whilst rare a bill can fail at the very last hurdle.

Enzokk

prawnsambo wrote: »

No. His real problems are just beginning. Because he's lost the programme motion, he is now going to have to let it be scrutinised over a longer time period. And that's where it will get really sticky. All the holes will be found and it will be amended to fix them.

It will only be scrutinized if he brings it back. Who knows if they will even be brave enough to do that.