Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Danzy

Joe_ Public wrote: »

You write that last sentence as if being granted an extension ("i'll die in a ditch before i ask for one") is another great triumph for the glorious leader. I'm not at all convinced to be honest.

No it's not, he knows, we all know that Brussels will grant him whatever to get the win.

It's their deal as much as his.

briany

FrancieBrady wrote: »

According to Newsnight Boris is on the phone tonight to EU telling them that he thinks he can get deal over the line and he only needs a few days extension.

EU: ....and what if you don't, Boris?

Boris: But I will!

EU: But what if you don't?

Boris: But I will!

Repeat until the EU hangs up.

is_that_so

Enzokk wrote: »

I don't know but I posted it to provide some balance to the thoughts that the EU was getting tired of the UK and Brexit. This is a contrary view and not the only one that they will give the UK the time it needs to find out what it wants. She also helpfully provided a solution to a yes/no question which the brilliant minds at the UK want to avoid.

It is amazing to me that consensus is that a general election that has a multitude of factors determining the result is thought to be the solution to Brexit which has a simple yes/no question at the heart of it.

Mostly because Boris looks like he'll win with a majority, thus making it easier to pass anything. This process is like a free shot and one it actually seems, against all odds, that he can make a success. He'll still have an election victory to come one way or another.

Water John

Once he has the 3 month Flexextension, he'll go for a GE.
He won't work with a minority.

is_that_so

briany wrote: »

What are the likely amendments to the deal, and which have the best chance of actually being tacked on? The 2nd ref is one that's being currently mooted, but when it comes down to it, I don't see that getting the numbers. The independent Conservatives will see to that, I'd say.

Second ref is one and I agree it will probably fail. Otherwise who knows what will emerge and what will have a chance of success. I think the message of the timetable vote is that they want time to review it properly.

is_that_so

FrancieBrady wrote: »

According to Newsnight Boris is on the phone tonight to EU telling them that he thinks he can get deal over the line and he only needs a few days extension.

The idea of that I would say is to take control of the timetable again. 2 weeks gives them nearly 3 weeks of debate. It doesn't suit him to get the full 3 months if he can avoid it.

Kermit.de.frog

Water John wrote: »

Once he has the 3 month Flexextension, he'll go for a GE.
He won't work with a minority.

This is the thing. The delays are pointless.

The Tories are on their way to a thumping majority anyway according to the polls.

They will have no problem getting the deal through then.

prawnsambo

is_that_so wrote: »

Mostly because Boris looks like he'll win with a majority, thus making it easier to pass anything. This process is like a free shot and one it actually seems, against all odds, that he can make a success. He'll still have an election victory to come one way or another.

I'm not sure that's a given. Assuming the SNP and the LibDems match their best showings (which they should - give or take), that leaves about 550 seats up for grabs. Of those, another 30 or so will go to NI, independents and Plaid. The Tories need 325 (roughly) to get a majority. Which means Labour will only come out with around the 200 mark. That just isn't likely.

briany

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The Tories are on their way to a thumping majority anyway according to the polls.

I'm not really in favour of the UK leaving the EU, but you'd have to say that if the Tories run on a Brexit platform and get a healthy majority, then there must be a majority for Leave among the electorate.

A Dub in Glasgo

The EU will grant the extension that was requested (up to end of Jan 2020) with the caveat that the extension falls if the deal is ratified before then

ancapailldorcha

prawnsambo wrote: »

I'm not sure that's a given. Assuming the SNP and the LibDems match their best showings (which they should - give or take), that leaves about 550 seats up for grabs. Of those, another 30 or so will go to NI, independents and Plaid. The Tories need 325 (roughly) to get a majority. Which means Labour will only come out with around the 200 mark. That just isn't likely.

Agreed.

The SNP look set to claw back Ruth Davidson's gains in Scotland in 2017. Leaving Wales and NI out of it, I just don't see where Johnson gets a winning vote from. He can't run on the Economy which is where the Conservatives are usually strong. Corbyn might be seen as being even weaker but at best Johnson wins a tiny majority similar to Cameron in 2015 and we move further away from a resolution of this whole saga.

A Dub in Glasgo

briany wrote: »

I'm not really in favour of the UK leaving the EU, but you'd have to say that if the Tories run on a Brexit platform and get a healthy majority, then there must be a majority for Leave among the electorate.

Not true - the Tories could get a thumping majority on as little as 37% of the vote due to FPTP

Kermit.de.frog

briany wrote: »

I'm not really in favour of the UK leaving the EU, but you'd have to say that if the Tories run on a Brexit platform and get a healthy majority, then there must be a majority for Leave among the electorate.

There will also be a cohort you voted remain but accept the result and are sick and tired of the games.

It's not all black/white leave/remain...there is a grey area to be exploited too.

is_that_so

prawnsambo wrote: »

I'm not sure that's a given. Assuming the SNP and the LibDems match their best showings (which they should - give or take), that leaves about 550 seats up for grabs. Of those, another 30 or so will go to NI, independents and Plaid. The Tories need 325 (roughly) to get a majority. Which means Labour will only come out with around the 200 mark. That just isn't likely.

Lots of assumptions. Where the polls seem to point at present he will probably get one, unless deals can be done amongst opposition parties. That's the trouble of FPTP, it's a brutal,unforgiving system where a 30% share to 31% delivers no seats.

GM228

FrancieBrady wrote: »

According to Newsnight Boris is on the phone tonight to EU telling them that he thinks he can get deal over the line and he only needs a few days extension.

Jolyon et all will love that as will the Scottish courts if true.

prawnsambo

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Not true - the Tories could get a thumping majority on as little as 37% of the vote due to FPTP

That's from the YouGov poll. Which has been an outlier from the rest for some time now. But putting the polls aside, there's been a big number of new young voters registering this year. I read somewhere that over half a million had registered in the last few months alone. And there's the added confusion of what effect the LibDem's strong pro-remain stance will have on their seats count. Add in the fact that the SNP will pretty much sweep Scotland and Johnson is starting the race 25 seats behind.

Edit: The other thing about the YouGov polls is the striking similarity in numbers (1632-1635) polled each time. If they're asking the same people, they may get the same answer.

GM228

is_that_so wrote: »

The idea of that I would say is to take control of the timetable again. 2 weeks gives them nearly 3 weeks of debate. It doesn't suit him to get the full 3 months if he can avoid it.

It would be like the last extension no doubt, max 3 months, in other words leave sooner when deal is ratified.

prawnsambo

is_that_so wrote: »

Lots of assumptions. Where the polls seem to point at present he will probably get one, unless deals can be done amongst opposition parties. That's the trouble of FPTP, it's a brutal,unforgiving system where a 30% share to 31% delivers no seats.

The SNP taking back Scotland is pretty much written in stone with Ruth Davidson gone and Scotland being dragged out of the EU against their will.

Strazdas

is_that_so wrote: »

Lots of assumptions. Where the polls seem to point at present he will probably get one, unless deals can be done amongst opposition parties. That's the trouble of FPTP, it's a brutal,unforgiving system where a 30% share to 31% delivers no seats.

A GE would be risky for Johnson. The English hard right / far right / nationalists love him but he is hated by millions of others.....an overall majority is far from a given.

It's hard to imagine Labour Leavers voting for the likes of Johnson, Raab and Patel.

Joe_ Public

"Better than the worst."

As heard on newsnight to describe the deal, copywrite Oliver Letwin. It so totally nails it that i wonder if Dom will adopt it as part of his no doubt ace election campaign. Its a rubbish deal says Ed Vaizey/Amber Rudd/Ken Clarke but we'll vote for it anyway because ITS BETTER THAN THE WORST.

Very catchy, i think anyway.

Danzy

Johnson will also have a deal ready to go, he'll point out how delighted he was, Varadkar was, Brussels was on its completion, how they want it passed, he wants it passed but the opposition do not for their own reasons.

He'll appeal for stability and an end to it and I suspect he'll get a big response.

Strazdas

Joe_ Public wrote: »

"Better than the worst."

As heard on newsnight to describe the deal, copywrite Oliver Letwin. It so totally nails it that i wonder if Dom will adopt it as part of his no doubt ace election campaign. Its a rubbish deal says Ed Vaizey/Amber Rudd/Ken Clarke but we'll vote for it anyway because ITS BETTER THAN THE WORST.

Very catchy, i think anyway.

Nobody can admit Brexit is a disaster and the public messed up royally in 2016.

If Brexit was a government policy and hadn't been voted for, it would have been chucked in the garbage bin after five minutes when people realised what a mess it is.

Joe_ Public

Strazdas wrote: »

A GE would be risky for Johnson. The English hard right / far right / nationalists love him but he is hated by millions of others.....an overall majority is far from a given.

It's hard to imagine Labour Leavers voting for the likes of Johnson, Raab and Patel.

I agree but Labour leavers will vote for farage sadly. Just to cok a snoop at the bigwigs down south. They know it will do sweet damn all for them long term, but they'll get a little temporary fix out of it which is better than nothing.

Danzy

Strazdas wrote: »

A GE would be risky for Johnson. The English hard right / far right / nationalists love him but he is hated by millions of others.....an overall majority is far from a given.

It's hard to imagine Labour Leavers voting for the likes of Johnson, Raab and Patel.

This is the sort of loolah stuff that will have him get several terms.

He has circa 35 to 48% support in nearly all demographics, are we seriously pretending they are all far right?

Strazdas

Danzy wrote: »

This is the sort of loolah stuff that will have him get several terms.

He has circa 35 to 48% support in nearly all demographics, are we seriously pretending they are all far right?

It's a myth that he is extremely popular. His support is coming from hardcore Tory and Brexit Party types.

Millions of others in the UK hate him and wouldn't trust him for a moment. The Johnson supporters and the right wing press are very vocal though and giving the impression he is a popular and charismatic figure.

liamtech

Unless Labor and the Lib Dems co-operated in an election - this will go very badly in my opinion-
the only place 'remain' will win is Scotland -
Northern Ireland is not gonna assist remain due to the abstention of tshe republicans -

Swinson hates Corbyn and vice versa so a pact is out

and i cant see the Hard Brexit splitting between the Brexit Party and the Conservatives-

Does anyone see a way where a general election returns a remainer parliament??? given the polls

MrMusician18

Danzy wrote: »

This is the sort of loolah stuff that will have him get several terms.

He has circa 35 to 48% support in nearly all demographics, are we seriously pretending they are all far right?

The Tories have turned into the well dressed, well educated posh hard right nationalists.

Just because they aren't skinhead England jersey wearing racists doesn't mean that can't be of the hard right.

tuxy

Strazdas wrote: »

A GE would be risky for Johnson. The English hard right / far right / nationalists love him but he is hated by millions of others.....an overall majority is far from a given.

It's hard to imagine Labour Leavers voting for the likes of Johnson, Raab and Patel.

He has a minority now he may have a minority in the future but if he can cling to the title of PM or even leader of the tories for longer he will.

Enzokk

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

This is the thing. The delays are pointless.

The Tories are on their way to a thumping majority anyway according to the polls.

They will have no problem getting the deal through then.

I remember how May was on her way to a thumping majority as well, with Labour on a projected 25% according to the polls. How did that work out for her?

Danzy

Strazdas wrote: »

It's a myth that he is extremely popular. His support is coming from hardcore Tory and Brexit Party types.

Millions of others in the UK hate him and wouldn't trust him for a moment. The Johnson supporters and the right wing press are very vocal though and giving the impression he is a popular and charismatic figure.

I didn't say he was extremely popular, but he polls well. He is by far the most popular choice for PM.

Especially in Working Class England, which will hit Labour.

Lot of people who dislike him may also give the Torys a vote to get a resolution.

God only knows what Labour would do on Brexit and the lib dems just want to make it all go away.