Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Joe_ Public

liamtech wrote: »

Unless Labor and the Lib Dems co-operated in an election - this will go very badly in my opinion-
the only place 'remain' will win is Scotland -
Northern Ireland is not gonna assist remain due to the abstention of tshe republicans -

Swinson hates Corbyn and vice versa so a pact is out

and i cant see the Hard Brexit splitting between the Brexit Party and the Conservatives-

Does anyone see a way where a general election returns a remainer parliament??? given the polls

I think its too hard to call. People write off Corbyn and easy to see why, but he's a good campaigner and could surprise a few. Lot of young people registering, record numbers in fact, and they willl be split between lab, lib dem and green. So some hope i think, depending on how campaign can be framed and how alliances or lack of them work out. As for the polls, remember the magic figure of 22 i think it was - how many per cent corbyn was trailing in 2017. They were predicting a tory majority of 100 seats!

Danzy

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I think its too hard to call. People write off Corbyn and easy to see why, but he's a good campaigner and could surprise a few. Lot of young people registering, record numbers in fact, and they willl be split between lab, lib dem and green. So some hope i think, depending on how campaign can be framed and how alliances or lack of them work out. As for the polls, remember the magic figure of 22 i think it was - how many per cent corbyn was trailing in 2017. They were predicting a tory majority of 100 seats!

The shine has gone off Corbyn.

He is the Father of the house for Brexiteers and that is pushing many who would back him to the Lib Dems.

MrMusician18

Enzokk wrote: »

I remember how May was on her way to a thumping majority as well, with Labour on a projected 25% according to the polls. How did that work out for her?

You do feel it's different this time though. May destroyed her own campaign with a disasterous manifesto that intended to tax the conservative base (elderly property owners) and that Labour as well as Mays enemies in the press successfully labeled the dementia tax. Along with other poor media performances, she killed her own chances.

Johnson on the other hand is a charming media performer with large segments of the right wing press not just onside (Mail) but seemingly unwavering in their full throated support (Telegraph). The cons will learn from last time and Johnson will campaign on an undeliverable populist manifesto, paid for from the equally mythical Brexit dividend.

Meanwhile Labour will remain tangled in knots over remain and the anti semitism "problem" which is really a proxy battle for control between the centerists and left wingers.

Headshot

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I think its too hard to call. People write off Corbyn and easy to see why, but he's a good campaigner and could surprise a few. Lot of young people registering, record numbers in fact, and they willl be split between lab, lib dem and green. So some hope i think, depending on how campaign can be framed and how alliances or lack of them work out. As for the polls, remember the magic figure of 22 i think it was - how many per cent corbyn was trailing in 2017. They were predicting a tory majority of 100 seats!

He certainly surprised people in the last campaign, no one saw labour closing the gap on the Tory's especially after the polls.

If another election happens before Brexit is completed it will be such a waste of time as nothing will change in parliament.

Strazdas

MrMusician18 wrote: »

The Tories have turned into the well dressed, well educated posh hard right nationalists.

Just because they aren't skinhead England jersey wearing racists doesn't mean that can't be of the hard right.

The English press is dominated by the hard right and anyone reading them would be under the impression Johnson is a much loved and charismatic figure, akin to Tony Blair circa 1997.

In truth, it's the angry OAPs and the xenophobic Brexit Party types who are buying into the cult of Boris. He's way too divisive to be a popular or unifying figure.

Hurrache

Murmurings today from journalists reporting that some in the DUP are expressing regret for not supporting May's deal but instead trusting those who turned out to be English nationalists with only their own interests at heart.

Bridgen even had this to say
[url]

https://twitter.com/AmandaFBelfast/status/1186761748428283908?s=19[/url]

Naive fools. This follows from another Tory remarking sure that NI is nowhere near her constituency that someone linked to earlier.

Joe_ Public

Hurrache wrote: »

Murmurings today from journalists reporting that some in the DUP are expressing regret for not supporting May's deal but instead trusting those who turned out to be English nationalists with only their own interests at heart.

Bridgen even had this to say
[url]

https://twitter.com/AmandaFBelfast/status/1186761748428283908?s=19[/url]

Naive fools. This follows from another Tory remarking sure that NI is nowhere near her constituency that someone linked to earlier.

The dup will be jumping back on the boris bus when they help attach the cu amendment to it, at which point Bridgen and his pals jump straight off again.

Joe_ Public

Headshot wrote: »

He certainly surprised people in the last campaign, no one saw labour closing the gap on the Tory's especially after the polls.

If another election happens before Brexit is completed it will be such a waste of time as nothing will change in parliament.

Will be curious to see what new attack lines the rightwing press will mobilise against him. All that ira terrorist/marxist stalinist ad hominen stuff they threw at him last time completely missed its target. Voters under 40 dont relate to that kind of stuff, half of them wouldnt have a clue what your talking about. We'll see what new lines they come up with, am sure they're already hard at work in preparation.

Danzy

Strazdas wrote: »

The English press is dominated by the hard right and anyone reading them would be under the impression Johnson is a much loved and charismatic figure, akin to Tony Blair circa 1997.

In truth, it's the angry OAPs and the xenophobic Brexit Party types who are buying into the cult of Boris. He's way too divisive to be a popular or unifying figure.

He
Doesn't have to unify, he just has to win a majority.

Teresa May was in Tony Blair 97 election territory in 2017.

Looking at his figures in the YouGov poll , he may not be universally loved but he enjoys massive support from nearly every demographic, losing out slightly in 18 24 to Corbyn and only being a few points ahead in London.

He'll be delighted with his figures.
Pretending it means they are all hard right or false consciousness is the sort of guff that has Labour polling at about half the Tory rate in Working Class voters.

Strazdas

Danzy wrote: »

He
Doesn't have to unify, he just has to win a majority.

Teresa May was in Tony Blair 97 election territory in 2017.

Looking at his figures in the YouGov poll , he may not be universally loved but he enjoys massive support from nearly every demographic, losing out slightly in 18 24 to Corbyn and only being a few points ahead in London.

He'll be delighted with his figures.
Pretending it means they are all hard right or false consciousness is the sort of guff that has Labour polling at about half the Tory rate in Working Class voters.

Easier said than done : he could easily fall short of a majority and it results in a hung parliament.

His support is not 'massive' either. In the same YouGov polls, far more people dislike him than like him.

liamtech

Strazdas wrote: »

A GE would be risky for Johnson. The English hard right / far right / nationalists love him but he is hated by millions of others.....an overall majority is far from a given.

It's hard to imagine Labour Leavers voting for the likes of Johnson, Raab and Patel.

Unfortunately and respectfully i disagree - a few points i will make

• Its clearly the dream of the remainers and labor that Farage splits the brexit vote, and therefore the conservatives across the board. I cannot see this happening. Even with BJ not agreeing to pact, the Brexit Party will campaign cleverly in weak tory seats - easy to see them taking the seats of ardently remain labor MPs from LEAVE MAJORITY seats - if the Tories lose anything to Farage and his crew it will be the 21 soft brexit pro remainers who are out of the party anyway - easy to slip in some of the MEP's like Lucy Harris and farage himself and take those seats - it will be proper electioneering on their part and i believe it could work
• Unfortunately Brexit has created a new and dangerous political cleavage among the british electorate. The way we feel passionately that brexit is a terrible idea, is mirrored (darkly) among Brexit Voting Labor supporters who have bought into the view of a corrupt undemocratic EU that is costing millions. i am concerned that the Brexit cleavage will over-ride typical left right politics for these voters and they will defect to either the tories - OR more probably the brexit party
• I feel like every time i make this point i need to qualify myself so in a nut shell (LEFTY - used to LOVE CORBYN - hate new labor champagne socialism etc et al) - But Corbyn has gone from being the savior of old labor, to its ultimate destroyer in my opinion - i dont care how magnificent a grass roots activist he is, the man is not a politician. His manifesto, if it goes ahead and i pray it doesnt, is laughable and would require a large diagram to explain. He says its principled. In fact it is a shambles that will only searve to freak people out - potentially remainers will vote against him to avoid his bizarre plan

Offering the British People another year of Brexit - Corbyn negotiating a new deal - then putting it to the people - but allowing practically his entire party to vote and campaign against it - insanity - i pray he doesnt do this

happy to discuss, but i am now seriously thinking remain is lost - unless there is some last gasp co-operation between remain parties - but with corbyn more interested in doing away with private schools - not gonna happen

10000maniacs

is_that_so wrote: »

Lots of assumptions. Where the polls seem to point at present he will probably get one, unless deals can be done amongst opposition parties. That's the trouble of FPTP, it's a brutal,unforgiving system where a 30% share to 31% delivers no seats.

There are always a few shocks in any election. Probably the biggest will be the no show of the Brexit party. But they will take enough seats off the Tories to make a dent. The Tories are a spent force and the longer Corbyn keeps them hanging, the worse it will be for them.
It will be another hung Parliament with the Tories slightly edging it over Labour. But no DUP to save them this time.

Joe_ Public

liamtech wrote: »

Unfortunately and respectfully i disagree - a few points i will make

• Its clearly the dream of the remainers and labor that Farage splits the brexit vote, and therefore the conservatives across the board. I cannot see this happening. Even with BJ not agreeing to pact, the Brexit Party will campaign cleverly in weak tory seats - easy to see them taking the seats of ardently remain labor MPs from LEAVE MAJORITY seats - if the Tories lose anything to Farage and his crew it will be the 21 soft brexit pro remainers who are out of the party anyway - easy to slip in some of the MEP's like Lucy Harris and farage himself and take those seats - it will be proper electioneering on their part and i believe it could work
• Unfortunately Brexit has created a new and dangerous political cleavage among the british electorate. The way we feel passionately that brexit is a terrible idea, is mirrored (darkly) among Brexit Voting Labor supporters who have bought into the view of a corrupt undemocratic EU that is costing millions. i am concerned that the Brexit cleavage will over-ride typical left right politics for these voters and they will defect to either the tories - OR more probably the brexit party
• I feel like every time i make this point i need to qualify myself so in a nut shell (LEFTY - used to LOVE CORBYN - hate new labor champagne socialism etc et al) - But Corbyn has gone from being the savior of old labor, to its ultimate destroyer in my opinion - i dont care how magnificent a grass roots activist he is, the man is not a politician. His manifesto, if it goes ahead and i pray it doesnt, is laughable and would require a large diagram to explain. He says its principled. In fact it is a shambles that will only searve to freak people out - potentially remainers will vote against him to avoid his bizarre plan

Offering the British People another year of Brexit - Corbyn negotiating a new deal - then putting it to the people - but allowing practically his entire party to vote and campaign against it - insanity - i pray he doesnt do this

happy to discuss, but i am now seriously thinking remain is lost - unless there is some last gasp co-operation between remain parties - but with corbyn more interested in doing away with private schools - not gonna happen

Lot there to digest and some very compelling and thoughtful points.

Have no time to go deeply into it, but a couple of thoughts. Labours policies are very popular with voters, this has been commented on time and time again. Stuff like nationalisation of trains and other utilities is a vote winner, if they can get off brexit, even just a bit, they could make some headway. Admittedly thats a challenge!

Other challenge they have imo is tories are very patently stealing their clothes with all their ridiculous spending promises, which are full of lies, but which could sway enough target labour voters. The tories are even trying to claim themselves as the party of the nhs which tells you how far we've gone into a posttruth world. This stuff needs to be countered but remains to be seen how.

I do believe whoever fights the smartest, more progressive campaign will fare best and that's up for grabs. Will be a truly fascinating contest when it happens, that is for sure!

Letwin_Larry

I think the Tories will win a majority. the combination of Boris/Cummings and a confused Lab message will prove decisive. The Lib Dems will hoover up Remainer votes, but from both Lab & Tory, and will negate their effect. Farage as ever will be an also ran.

that said it's all up for grabs, and will be viscious in the extreme.

let the games commence!

Leroy42

Johnson said it today in the HoC, and others have said it but very clearly they are pushing the NI solution as temporary.

Whilst it may be nothing more that talk, it has the possibility of creating a sense of grievance in NI when it doesn't happen. And you can be sure that the blame will be placed firmly on Ireland.

Its a very dangerous situation.

liamtech

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Lot there to digest and some very compelling and thoughtful points.

Have no time to go deeply into it, but a couple of thoughts. Labours policies are very popular with voters, this has been commented on time and time again. Stuff like nationalisation of trains and other utilities is a vote winner, if they can get off brexit, even just a bit, they could make some headway. Admittedly thats a challenge!

Other challenge they have imo is tories are very patently stealing their clothes with all their ridiculous spending promises, which are full of lies, but which could sway enough target labour voters. The tories are even trying to claim themselves as the party of the nhs which tells you how far we've gone into a posttruth world. This stuff needs to be countered but remains to be seen how.

I do believe whoever fights the smartest, more progressive campaign will fare best and that's up for grabs. Will be a truly fascinating contest when it happens, that is for sure!

Thanks for discussing - just about to go to bed but a little thought would be that your correct. If they could push by Brexit for a bit, which is possible, they might survive and make gains

The two problems that could prevent that are:

-The Lib Dems are the only ones who are actively courting remainers - at present - all will depend on Labors actual manifesto - if they can counter the Lib Dems, attack Swinsons Revoke as being a bridge too far, and adopt a clear Peoples Vote approach, they could well make a run of it and it could be close. The problem for me is that i cant see them doing that under Corbyn. His 'Principles' wont let him do that, he wants a shot at negotiating the UK out of the EU but remaining in the CU/CM - and thats fatal. Its another year of Brexit which people wont want. Its potentially another meltdown if his deal is not supported by his entire party, or those he is in coalition with. It could not be taken seriously given the bulk of Labor MP's saying they want the peoples vote ASAP - and honestly if brexit is to be stopped, it needs to be ASAP!!!! Corbyn is a huge disappointment in British Left wing politics. The only thing i can say is that perhaps if Brexit had never happened, he would have got in! And properly turned around the years of NewLabor(Tory-lite) and Conservative policies - what might have been eh?

- I totally agree that we are living in a post truth world, and the UK sadly has become almost as bad as the US for that. But in truth this election, if and when it happens, is the peoples vote, and probably the last they will get on Brexit. Given FPTP Boris doesnt need a majority of 50%+1 to win - he just needs some clever electioneering - and he will play the game like a pro, it pains me to say that. He will appeal to hearts over heads (How dare they suggest we have a second referendum - they might do that in ireland but not here). He will point to Corbyn's aim of renegotiations, and highlight how long it will take, and how it wont actually be brexit. And he will surely highlight that labor would give the Scots a second indyRef. He is the incumbent. Thanks to todays vote, and the EU ACTUALLY GIVING him a deal (god i never thought i would say that) - he gets to set the agenda

I will say this as i nod off.. i really really hope im wrong. but this election could be terrible for both labor and the remainer cause.. it need not be, but it will be none the less

Kermit.de.frog

Leroy42 wrote: »

Johnson said it today in the HoC, and others have said it but very clearly they are pushing the NI solution as temporary.

Whilst it may be nothing more that talk, it has the possibility of creating a sense of grievance in NI when it doesn't happen. And you can be sure that the blame will be placed firmly on Ireland.

Its a very dangerous situation.

If a majority vote in the local assembly to leave the arrangements, they can leave.

Seems democratic to me?

jimmycrackcorm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

If a majority vote in the local assembly to leave the arrangements, they can leave.

Seems democratic to me?

Sure it is. Because of course they'll vote to reinstate the border.

Saying this is temporary is based on the idea that the UK think they're going to get an amazing FTA with the EU. However there is no way the EU will give them anything like what they had as its not in their interest to show that leaving is going to be better.

murphaph

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

If a majority vote in the local assembly to leave the arrangements, they can leave.

Seems democratic to me?

Should a reintroduction of border controls mean we bring back articles 2 and 3 as they were before the 98 referendum? We held up our end of the bargain. Just a thought.

BonnieSituation

murphaph wrote: »

Should a reintroduction of border controls mean we bring back articles 2 and 3 as they were before the 98 referendum? We held up our end of the bargain. Just a thought.

Ah the classic Nationalists meeting unionists halfway but yet seemingly being intransigent. Who would have thunk it.

Rather than bringing back 2 and 3, let's have a border poll within the next decade.

Heaven forbid that the PUL community might have to live in a mere Economic United Ireland.

LuckyLloyd

briany wrote: »

EU: ....and what if you don't, Boris?

Boris: But I will!

EU: But what if you don't?

Boris: But I will!

Repeat until the EU hangs up.

But he will. 329 MPs in favour of the second reading. It’s over. Just a matter of time.

LeinsterDub

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

But he will. 329 MPs in favour of the second reading. It’s over. Just a matter of time.

Just because an MP voted for the second reading stage doesn't mean they'll make it law. Any number of reasons to vote for it now and reject it later

Enzokk

MrMusician18 wrote: »

You do feel it's different this time though. May destroyed her own campaign with a disasterous manifesto that intended to tax the conservative base (elderly property owners) and that Labour as well as Mays enemies in the press successfully labeled the dementia tax. Along with other poor media performances, she killed her own chances.

Johnson on the other hand is a charming media performer with large segments of the right wing press not just onside (Mail) but seemingly unwavering in their full throated support (Telegraph). The cons will learn from last time and Johnson will campaign on an undeliverable populist manifesto, paid for from the equally mythical Brexit dividend.

Meanwhile Labour will remain tangled in knots over remain and the anti semitism "problem" which is really a proxy battle for control between the centerists and left wingers.

It's not like May didn't have the backing of the press either. We don't know what will be in the manifesto for Johnson but if it is only getting Brexit done he is dead. If it is spending galore, well he will have to explain austerity the last 10 years if he can just turn on the taps when Brexit will leave them worse off as well. If it is staying the course with spending, i.e. more austerity, well good luck with that one.

I agree that Corbyn looks terrible right now, but he did before the last election as well. With a manifesto that is costed and a viable Brexit plan to sort it out, if the EU allows a new deal or Johnsons deal against remain to sort it out in a new referendum, he should do better than people think, just like in 2017 I think.

I just don't think it is a slam dunk as many seems to think it is. The challenge for Labour is the Lib Dems but if they can put their differences aside they can at least ensure that Johnson doesn't get a majority and that Johnson will know the only way to get this mess done is a confirmatory vote on Brexit.

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

But he will. 329 MPs in favour of the second reading. It’s over. Just a matter of time.

Doesn't explain him losing the program motion if it was sure his deal would pass. Why else would he try to ram it through? If he knew he had time he would take his time but he knows the longer they look at the deal the worse it becomes and once an economic impact assessment is done it will be even harder to find reasons to back it.

And then we get to the amendments.

A Dub in Glasgo

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

But he will. 329 MPs in favour of the second reading. It’s over. Just a matter of time.

The issue for Johnson here is that his deal will be subject to amendments and it is those amended bills that parliament will be voting on..... if he brings it back. At the moment, the bill is paused. Parliament may vote for none of the amendments or they might vote for one of them that is incompatible with his deal with the EU and he will have to go back to the EU

If MPs wanted to just pass Johnsons deal they would have either voted

1. for his deal on Saturday without the Letwin amendment
or

2. Agreed to his rush job to force his bill through parliament last night

MPs did not go for either of these and there is still a lot of way to go on this

Leroy42

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

If a majority vote in the local assembly to leave the arrangements, they can leave.

Seems democratic to me?

It is not the democratic part of it that worries me. Surely you can see how easily democracy can be manipulated during this whole Brexit saga.

Its the way that Ireland will be blamed, how unionist grievances will be stoked to create a bogeyman to rail against.

Enzokk

So this is interesting, the man shouting about getting Brexit done is being paid to do so, but by whom?

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1186786650728390656?s=20

A Dub in Glasgo

Enzokk wrote: »

So this is interesting, the man shouting about getting Brexit done is being paid to do so, but by whom?

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1186786650728390656?s=20

Tom Newton Dunn is the Political Editor of the Sun newspaper and the the first response to his tweet nails it

https://twitter.com/AlanCrowe73/status/1186796366732902405

PeadarCo

jimmycrackcorm wrote:

Saying this is temporary is based on the idea that the UK think they're going to get an amazing FTA with the EU. However there is no way the EU will give them anything like what they had as its not in their interest to show that leaving is going to be better.

It's not that the EU won't offer the UK a great deal. It's that the UK or Brexiters anyway won't accept the restrictions that come with a good deal. If you want to sign up to a deal that gives you the same benefits as the customs Union and or single market you are going to have to accept the costs. Ie adhere to a common rule book, common tarrifs etc. Without those you don't have a customs union or single market and the benefits that come with that.

farmchoice

Anyone who thinks Boris had any kind of win last night is misreading the situation.
during the debate it became clear that if corbyn was not actually putting some MP's up to voting for the deal he was most certainly not discouraging them.
this makes sense from a labour point of view. if the bill fell at second reading last night then its straight to an election and its Parliaments fault.


This way the bill carries on, it was expected that Johnson would pull it in a fit of pique, even thought parliament had voted for it.
this would have made Johnson look pathetic and seem to be afraid of scrutiny of his own bill.
he did not quite go that far but he did pause it.
now he has to see through what he said he would never do regarding the extension and he will have to open the bill up to forensic scrutiny.
following on from that MP's will be able to make amendments to the bill. based on all previous votes there is now almost certainly a majority for a second ref and if there is any doubt about this the calculation is that there certainly will not be after the bill is gone through.

Johnson is now backed into a corner he cant readily get out of, he wants an election but it is not within his powers to call one. he cant say the house wont accept his WA, they just have and he has been forced into doing what he said he would never do.

Joe_ Public

Being one of the worlds foremost classical scholars, johnson will no doubt appreciate he enjoyed a magnificent triumph last night the way King Pyrrhus did when he defeated the romans at the battle of hercules.