Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

lawred2

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

If he secures an extension then I would think so. I can't see him winning by the margin he needs to get his deal through comfortably though.

There is no way that the EU aren't going to facilitate.

Joe_ Public

Its johnsons second vote win to be exact. Given their rarity, wouldnt want to deny him that!

As regards that majority of 30, if you take out the 14 lab mps who then opposed the second and more important motion, that majority effectively reduces to 2. Going forward as bill gets more and more fine print scrutiny, i would fancy him to lose more support for it than he would gain, notwithstanding how it might be amended.

prawnsambo

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

very interesting graphic.
it would seem the older, less educated and lower one's income the more likely that person voted leave.
conversely younger, more educated with higher incomes voted remain.

but last time i checked each vote cast is of equal importance and validity.

Yes. But it also raises the question of motivation. Why people vote the way they do is of interest to everyone who is trying to influence a vote or plan a campaign.

Letwin_Larry

there was a woman on LBC last night making the point that BoJo has the "teflon factor" in that indiscretions that would normally end most leader's careers appear to be having little or no impact on him.

woejus

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

very interesting graphic.
it would seem the older, less educated and lower one's income the more likely that person voted leave.
conversely younger, more educated with higher incomes voted remain.

but last time i checked each vote cast is of equal importance and validity.

Add 1500-2000 a day to the bottom, remain voting cohorts.
Lop the same if not more off the top end, leaver cohorts, every day.

This is why the ERG & swivel-eyed fellow travellers are in mortal fear of a re-run. The war metaphors and images of Britain battling the evil EUSSR just don't fly with anyone under 45 odd.

Tired Gardener

If the EU grant another extension; which they will more than likely do, as they don't want to be the ones to Kickstart a No Deal Brexit, I hope they add in a few clauses, and also grant a year. This should be enough for the UK parliament to sort it self out.

Now the question is what should the clauses be? A second referendum, a general election, or both.

Either way the EU have been more than accommodating, all the delay and confusion is coming out of the house of parliament.

If a general election is called for, I doubt Labour would vote to have one until there is a referendum. The Whole Brexit mess is due to infighting within the Tory party and then trying to poach UKIP voters, so changing to a Labour government, would mean that Labour is stuck with the job of cleaning up the Tory mess.

Brexit continues to be a poisoned chalice, hopefully Boris Johnson's career will be it's next victim.

Joe_ Public

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

there was a woman on LBC last night making the point that BoJo has the "teflon factor" in that indiscretions that would normally end most leader's careers appear to be having little or no impact on him.

Quite arguable position to hold i would think. Whether he has committed one or more career ending indiscretions is debatable, but bar for leaders behaviour is being pushed lower and lower, the tolerance for lying becoming alarmingly higher and higher. Post-truth or whatever you want to call it.

Letwin_Larry

woejus wrote: »

Add 1500-2000 a day to the bottom, remain voting cohorts.
Lop the same if not more off the top end, leaver cohorts, every day.

This is why the ERG & swivel-eyed fellow travellers are in mortal fear of a re-run. The war metaphors and images of Britain battling the evil EUSSR just don't fly with anyone under 45 odd.

indeed. there's no question this has divided communities and families along generational lines. i know personally of quite a few cases where parents and grandparents have fallen-out with younger family members over this.

Sunday roast & Yorkshire pudd may never be the same again!:eek:

josip

woejus wrote: »

Add 1500-2000 a day to the bottom, remain voting cohorts.
Lop the same if not more off the top end, leaver cohorts, every day.

This is why the ERG & swivel-eyed fellow travellers are in mortal fear of a re-run. The war metaphors and images of Britain battling the evil EUSSR just don't fly with anyone under 45 odd.

But everyone still alive who voted in the first referendum is now 3 years older and on average more conservative.

It's not as simple as old leavers have been replaced by young remainers.

Varta

woejus wrote: »

Add 1500-2000 a day to the bottom, remain voting cohorts.
Lop the same if not more off the top end, leaver cohorts, every day.

This is why the ERG & swivel-eyed fellow travellers are in mortal fear of a re-run. The war metaphors and images of Britain battling the evil EUSSR just don't fly with anyone under 45 odd.

I find this notion that as new voters come on stream the electorate will suddenly become more in favour of remain a strange one. It belies the fact that a similar number of people are also moving into the other end of the spectrum, which is the reason change happens slowly.

Beaten to it by josip.

prawnsambo

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

there was a woman on LBC last night making the point that BoJo has the "teflon factor" in that indiscretions that would normally end most leader's careers appear to be having little or no impact on him.

I think that depends on where you get the data to make that assertion from. Johnson is cheerled from the rafters by the Telegraph, Mail etc. And we know why that is. None of those organs will do anything to portray him as anything worse than a lovable rogue. When people say that stuff doesn't stick, they are mostly basing that on how he's portrayed in the media.

But it was interesting to see the booing and other verbal attacks he was getting when he went walkabout in various UK towns and cities recently. Was roundly booed when he went to see Nicola Sturgeon, in Wales when he went to meet Mark Drakeford and in England at the chicken farm (among many others). Even the polls that are quoted to show that he's the most popular leader are pretty much damning with faint praise. Varying between 30% and 40%; not exactly resounding.

BonnieSituation

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

https://www.parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/db50ce98-55f0-4fad-a51b-d03bc468ccec

Go to 10:33:15 seconds.

Interesting use of words by the SoS.

"Dublin doesn't have a veto. We need to talk to them"

Water John

No 10 has the impression and expressed it to Corbyn that, the French would veto the Ext.

Mr.Wemmick

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

indeed. there's no question this has divided communities and families along generational lines. i know personally of quite a few cases where parents and grandparents have fallen-out with younger family members over this.

Sunday roast & Yorkshire pudd may never be the same again!:eek:

I am in the UK quite a lot and that is not my experience anymore. Maybe back in 2016 it was. More detailed info is now available compared to 2016, and anyone with a functioning brain cell can access info from respectable knowledgable specialists, industry heads, journalists to find that this whole brexit is a complete tory stitch-up. Tony Connelly, btw, is well known in the UK now.

And brexiteers Sun readers who still cry out loud for brexit, come across like eejits to everyone at this stage. Seriously, the country has woken up.. the longer Johnson doesn't deliver, the more clued-in folks will become.

Danzy

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

very interesting graphic.
it would seem the older, less educated and lower one's income the more likely that person voted leave.
conversely younger, more educated with higher incomes voted remain.

but last time i checked each vote cast is of equal importance and validity.

The middle and upper class largely benefit from globalization and neoliberalism, lower down the ladder do not.

London as the centre of both of those benefits from both, places like Manchester do as well so all classes depended on protecting such things.

The class element of leave vs remain is often over looked in this mix.

prawnsambo

Varta wrote: »

I find this notion that as new voters come on stream the electorate will suddenly become more in favour of remain a strange one. It belies the fact that a similar number of people are also moving into the other end of the spectrum, which is the reason change happens slowly.

Beaten to it by josip.

You can actually find the data for new voter registrations on the UK voter registration website.


This year so far, there were over 4 million new registrations from the under 25 to 44 year age bracket and just under 1.5 million in the over 44 age bracket. Taken in conjunction with the graphic I posted above, that represents a possibly larger margin of remain V leave voters coming on stream. Applying the same percentages as voted in each age group in 2016 to the new voters in the same demographics, you get 3.3 million remain and 2.3 million leave approximately. Not very far from the margin of leave over remain in 2016.

10000maniacs

prawnsambo wrote: »

This is a breakdown on this site.

That's the way it comes across when tv news reporters go out and meet the locals.
"I have diabetes and am worried about supply of insulin",
"Which way did you vote?"
"Leave"

briany

Show the graph above to a Leave voter and they might say something like, "Hm, it's as if the more life experience and wisdom you have, the more likely you are to vote Leave. Huh..."

c.p.w.g.w

Varta wrote: »

I find this notion that as new voters come on stream the electorate will suddenly become more in favour of remain a strange one. It belies the fact that a similar number of people are also moving into the other end of the spectrum, which is the reason change happens slowly.

Beaten to it by josip.

I do think there was a few elements in the first referendum that will be different for a 2nd referendum.
Red Bus of lies has be proven to be a lie
Protest Voters(who never thought leave would win) will vote remain

Varta

prawnsambo wrote: »

You can actually find the data for new voter registrations on the UK voter registration website.


This year so far, there were over 4 million new registrations from the under 25 to 44 year age bracket and just under 1.5 million in the over 44 age bracket. Taken in conjunction with the graphic I posted above, that represents a possibly larger margin of remain V leave voters coming on stream. Applying the same percentages as voted in each age group in 2016 to the new voters in the same demographics, you get 3.3 million remain and 2.3 million leave approximately. Not very far from the margin of leave over remain in 2016.

However, that doesn't take into account the remain voters who are now older and have perhaps changed their mind as a consequence. It's all very unclear tbh, but it's wrong to assume that new voters automatically increases the remain vote by any significant margin.

Varta

Mr.Wemmick wrote: »

I am in the UK quite a lot and that is not my experience anymore. Maybe back in 2016 it was. More detailed info is now available compared to 2016, and anyone with a functioning brain cell can access info from respectable knowledgable specialists, industry heads, journalists to find that this whole brexit is a complete tory stitch-up. Tony Connelly, btw, is well known in the UK now.

And brexiteers Sun readers who still cry out loud for brexit, come across like eejits to everyone at this stage. Seriously, the country has woken up.. the longer Johnson doesn't deliver, the more clued-in folks will become.

I suspect you are mixing with remainers mostly. I've been there quite a lot this year and all I see is a country bitterly divided.

Water John

Prawn sets out the logic as to why the Remain vote may have caught up with the Leave numbers. Has anyone got recent polling?

Varta

Varta wrote: »

I suspect you are mixing with remainers mostly. I've been there quite a lot this year and all I see is a country bitterly divided.

Yeah, the majority of leave voters would vote leave again, same for remain.
It is the ones who did not vote last time that will decide the outcome.

There will be few that switch sides.

ancapailldorcha

Water John wrote: »

Prawn sets out the logic as to why the Remain vote may have caught up with the Leave numbers. Has anyone got recent polling?

This is from August:



From LBC:

https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/remain-55-45-second-referendum-brexit-poll/

Prorogation won't have hurt Remain's odds.

This is more recent:



Source.

Strazdas

Apparently, many of the Leave voting OAPs are well off, middle class pensioners in the south of England with three bedroom houses and two cars in the driveway.

It would be fascinating to discover how this demographic acquired such a hatred of the EU.

ancapailldorcha

Strazdas wrote: »

Apparently, many of the Leave voting OAPs are well off. middle class pensioners in the south of England with three bedroom houses and two cars in the driveway.

It would be fascinating to discover how this demographic acquired such a hatred of the EU.

The press.

Gerry T

Strazdas wrote: »

Apparently, many of the Leave voting OAPs are well off, middle class pensioners in the south of England with three bedroom houses and two cars in the driveway.

It would be fascinating to discover how this demographic acquired such a hatred of the EU.

Decades of this crap didn't help
https://blogs.ec.europa.eu/ECintheUK/euromyths-a-z-index/

Strazdas

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The press.

Brainwashing mainly then.....many of their reasons for disliking the EU are facile and don't stand up to any sort of scrutiny.

ancapailldorcha

Strazdas wrote: »

Brainwashing mainly then.....many of their reasons for disliking the EU are facile and don't stand up to any sort of scrutiny.

It's because it's a conclusion that they never arrived at themselves, it's one which has been pushed as part of the British tabloid owners' agenda which is driven by their hatred of the EU and their upcoming anti-tax avoidance measures. They've been fed this drivel for decades well before skepticism of the news became so entrenched in society so they took it in good faith.

Strazdas

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

It's because it's a conclusion that they never arrived at themselves, it's one which has been pushed as part of the British tabloid owners' agenda which is driven by their hatred of the EU and their upcoming anti-tax avoidance measures. They've been fed this drivel for decades well before skepticism of the news became so entrenched in society so they took it in good faith.

Yes, Brexit has been a bit of a perfect storm. A lying, toxic media coupled with a failed political system with no constitution.....it couldn't have happened in any other country in Europe.