Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

An Ciarraioch

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Not much drop in their vote I'd imagine until real Brexit sets in. They have already set in motion their finely honed 'unionism under siege' strategy which has rallied the support before for them.

Although Steve Aiken has already pledged that the UUP will contest all 18 NI constituencies, which could leave the DUP vulnerable in N, S and E Belfast, as well as South Antrim.

CelticRambler

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Tories with a 16-point lead, which would give them a larger majority than Blair in 1997:

Not if it doesn't translate into an equivalent majority of seats in the HoC, and seeing as FPTP is completely unsuited to a four-way contest, non-specific polling in this (next) election is pretty pointless.

dePeatrick

Infini wrote: »

Unfortunately for them their thinking and positions are relics of a past era and they're finding out being stupid and putting flegs and ideology before the common interest doesnt get them what they want, it gets them nothing and made examples of why the opinions of ididots should be ignored and ridiculed.

They didn't think about how the position they were taking would backfire on them so spetacularly, by pushing and jumping into the leave camp not only have they drawn attention to themselves which ultimately got abortion and SSM legalised in the last week but also they went and reactivated the Irish Question which had they just left things well enough alone would not be something that could be decided in the next decade or less and not 40 odd years from now. They literally brought forward the chance of a border poll by decades with their shenanigans.

What they also failed in all this is they screwed the buisness and the farming communities in all of this and who did they go to when they had to decide all this, not their buisness or farming supporters but their loyalist "terrorist" friends who like "IRA" are nothing more than glorified criminal outfits today, relics of a past era unfit for modern times.

They shít the bed and now the can lie in it, get nothing and like it and be ridiculed and ultimately be sidelined by the people of NI they're unfit for any sort of goverment and should be sidelined and mocked as such for human stupidity is the cancer of this existence and they're the prime example of why the opinions of idiots should not be listened to.

Also have exposed their 17th century thinking to the politicians, media and public in the UK as well as here...Some legacy!

prawnsambo

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Not much drop in their vote I'd imagine until real Brexit sets in. They have already set in motion their finely honed 'unionism under siege' strategy which has rallied the support before for them.

Last poll I saw in NI showed them losing at least one seat and at worst three. The likely one was to Alliance.

A Dub in Glasgo

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Tories with a 16-point lead, which would give them a larger majority than Blair in 1997:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1188150296209436673

Con 425
Lab 145
SNP 35
Lib Dems 24
DUP 9
SF 7
Plaid 4
Green 2
Alliance 1
Sylvia Hermon 1

Quite depressing although I find it hard to belive those seat numbers

prawnsambo

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Tories with a 16-point lead, which would give them a larger majority than Blair in 1997:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1188150296209436673

Con 425
Lab 145
SNP 35
Lib Dems 24
DUP 9
SF 7
Plaid 4
Green 2
Alliance 1
Sylvia Hermon 1

Just shows how FPTP can defy these polls. There's no way the SNP will end up with just 35 seats.

FrancieBrady

prawnsambo wrote: »

Last poll I saw in NI showed them losing at least one seat and at worst three. The likely one was to Alliance.

Wait until an election is called and they go into the blame game and siege stuff. 'Their very existence'' will be under threat if themun's gain a vote'.
'Themuns' will become everyone else, including the UUP.

bilston

I've asked it a lot but how on earth is Corbyn still leader of the Labour party? He is single handedly destroying them. It's almost as if he is a Tory agent.

Joe_ Public

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Tories with a 16-point lead, which would give them a larger majority than Blair in 1997:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1188150296209436673

Con 425
Lab 145
SNP 35
Lib Dems 24
DUP 9
SF 7
Plaid 4
Green 2
Alliance 1
Sylvia Hermon 1

Just a couple of days ago the same polling firm had labour actually ahead in the event the uk hadnt left by the oct deadline. So how much point is there reading anything worthwhile into any of them?

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1187399919604289538?s=20

Edit: two different firms as pointed out below, just to correct the record.

Fogmatic

I see Westminster visitors can buy a House of Commons Christmas jumper. The design's ok I suppose in a staid kind of way, but I couldn't help picturing a few updates to better reflect today's government (certain motifs that sprang to mind, flaws such as no head opening when it's too late to return it, etc).

Excuse the levity - it's a coping mechanism! After 3 years of disbelief at each twist in the Downing Street plot, it's getting hard to keep track of the latest cliffhangers. On the news, anyway. I find reading this thread (however sporadically) the best source of updates and the most balanced mix of viewpoints. The best descriptions in printed matter that I've come across of what Belfast's like despite the Good Friday Agreement, and the way the Brexit argument has been polarising the UK and inducing hate between its citizens, are both novels. (Perhaps because we can't interrupt a fictional character, sack them, or take their words out of context for a hate campaign).

I'm sure I can't say anything that hasn't been said here already, but couldn't resist a chance to sound off anyway (where I don't have to keep explaining why what happens to the Irish and EU borders matters).

My spouse and I are Brits with no Irish connections, and it was pure chance that we landed in Donegal. But it's enabled a wider view of Brexit implications than most of our mainland compatriots have been encouraged to (or permitted by the media, even).

I'm a Londoner, and most of our working lives was there. We've had Irish friends since the early 1970s, from a good cross-section of the island of Ireland. Those from both communities in the North left it because of the Troubles, the last straw often being a friend killed. One from Belfast who moved here about the same time as us was hard to engage in conversation at first, the habit of being careful what you say was so firmly ingrained (it took years to relax out of that wariness). Even we obvious outsiders have had the odd tense moment in the North (e.g. asking an innocent question in the wrong pub).

The border posts were still there when we moved here (and unavoidable on our only sensible route to the UK). We're near the border and get UK TV with NI local news, where the incidents reported had settled down to around one person shot/home damaged per day, but now seem to be getting more serious again. (Which are sectarian and which simply money-motivated (or a mixture) is hard to tell from the increasingly carefully worded bulletins, but either way the shortage of witnesses seems only natural).

We can also imagine the effects of Brexit on businesses all too well (and know a little about the possible effects on the economy generally). We were virtually always self-employed, and know how a seemingly small problem can make the difference between managing and going under (and have a domino effect on other businesses). Our own enterprises were very small (ranging from just one of us, to us and 4 full-time employees), but the principles are the same whatever the size.

Our personal question marks feel trivial, but have led to thinking about other Brexit ramifications. (Will we still manage financially? How often will we get to the UK to see family, when it's already only just do-able in one (very long) day each way? Will we be spending a big chunk of increasingly precious time dealing with the official paperwork of a big transition?).

Meanwhile, I care very much about my home country and was an instant remainer for that reason alone. For the same reason that when we were a builder in London I wouldn't have signed a contract to renovate for a fixed price a big house that we couldn't look at, and with the specs to be decided by the client at some point in the future. I was assuming at that point that I'd have a vote, as it was being described as for 'UK citizens', not 'UK citizens who happen to be living here at the moment' (yet another detail that most mainland UK people couldn't have been expected to be aware of).

The UK government petition website has been a voice of sorts, but the front page gave the impression that only UK residents could sign. It was only because of wanting to try with a relative's UK postcode that I got as far as seeing the long country drop-down list including Ireland, and then signed several against Brexit. (The wording seems to have been improved now; no way of telling if my email had anything to do with it!). Another annoyance was that every petition I went to had the identical prominent official statement just above the 'Sign' link, saying that the government would abide by the referendum result (making it sound as if the petition had already run its course and wasn't worth bothering with).

I don't understand the resistance to a 2nd referendum. (It's not as if voters would have to change tack publicly, or as if confirming their original vote would be such a great inconvenience). I'm sure more people would vote now they've had thinking time, and been informed somewhat of the implications (even of those for this island). In spite of most news media being quite parochial (even the Web seems to be getting less and less World Wide). I still think staying in the EU would be best for Britain's future, but if Leave won now I would at least feel that the people had been respected.

I'm keeping my fingers crossed, and hoping that by some miracle the people of influence will somehow decide that logical thinking about the fate of the nation should trump (sorry!) ephemeral party politics. I wish they could just have an amnesty, follow their hearts whichever way, and then land wherever that put them in the party political world.

I haven't yet needed an insurance green card (having only driven in the UK and Ireland), but got mine in February when renewal came up. I wanted to avoid any last-minute rush, as it's hard to predict my UK holidays, or having to go there. But it was largely because I hoped it would invoke Sod's Law and become unnecessary (I'm still hoping)!

I'm no monarchist, but think the Queen's continued resolve not to interfere with politics is quite heroic (especially as she can probably see the big picture better than anyone!).

Thanks for your patience, if you got this far!

prawnsambo

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Just a couple of days ago the same polling firm had labour actually ahead in the event the uk hadnt left by the oct deadline. So how much point is there reading anything worthwhile into any of them?

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1187399919604289538?s=20

The one above is Opimium, the one you're quoting is ComRes.

Joe_ Public

prawnsambo wrote: »

The one above is Opimium, the one you're quoting is ComRes.

Stand corrected, thanks. I'm still not minded to pay much heed all the same. Even as a supposed current barometer at least one of those is well out. If i have to pick one to trust, then I'll pick neither.

Infini

MEANWHILE.. in another thread the 12th incarnation is a coming!

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058025860

We about to hit yet ANOTHER new thread at this rate do we have to make a 13th to see an ends to this debacle in the Brits being at it again?

Strazdas

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Only three more Christmases 'till Brexit :pac:

How about three more Rugby World Cups

prunudo

Infini wrote: »

MEANWHILE.. in another thread the 12th incarnation is a coming!

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058025860

We about to hit yet ANOTHER new thread at this rate do we have to make a 13th to see an ends to this debacle in the Brits being at it again?

You can bet a 13th wouldn't be the last either, there'll still be threads discussing Brexit in 10 years. They may approve the WA but the notion of getting Brexit done is laughable. Passing the WA is probably the easiest part, every deal and negotiation after will be tough. Just it will be the senior civil servants rather the politicians who will be dealing with it.

ancapailldorcha

Now that we have a bit of a lull before yet another week laden with political developments, I think I'll lock this a little early. Thanks all.

New thread here:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058025860