Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

FrancieBrady

Tell me how wrote: »

Has there ever been a case where someone contested for party leader and lost twice before winning on the 3rd attempt?
Gove is definitely streets ahead of Johnson, Davis, Raab, McVeigh, Javid, Leadsom in terms of mental dexterity and oration.

Not saying what he is saying makes sense or is factual or will build confidence but he does sound like he knows what he is talking about.

He is certainly behaving like someone who is biding his time.

Imreoir2

BarryD2 wrote: »

Yes, but we don't really have any ideas either. Other than them having another referendum and choosing to stay in. There's a lot of talk of division but how much of that is just hype and talk? Even if you judged by street protests, there were massive Remain crowds on the streets of London back in March, whilst the Leave marchers were relatively tiny in number. With a bit of leadership, I think Remain would be carried easily with a significant majority. But maybe that's just wishful thinking.

I think it is, there seems to be a small swing to remain in the polls over the last year, but that is in the absence of a second referendum being announced. I think there would be an energisation of the leave base should a second referendum be brought forward.

The reality of Brexit has yet to be experienced and as such the population has not been shown in real terms the depth of the mistake they have made. Untill that happens I think efforts to put an end to Brexit through referendum are a serious risk. That said, there may be no better way to put the issue to bed.

briany

Nigel Farage hinting that a move to the U.S. is on the cards if and when Brexit is delivered.

I think he should be persuaded to stay and really bask in his handiwork. Crowds carrying him through the streets, that sort of thing.

CelticRambler

BarryD2 wrote: »

Yes, but we don't really have any ideas either. Other than them having another referendum and choosing to stay in.

Who do you mean by "we" - boards members? the Irish government? the EU negotiating team? Whichever group, "we" haven't been short of ideas - but all of them require an acknowledgement by the British that invoking Art.50 without a clear plan was ... unwise ... and then drawing mutually incompatible, unshiftable red lines was downright idiotic. Those two steps created the situation where the only two realistic options are a crash-out Brexit or another referendum.

Zubeneschamali

Imreoir2 wrote: »

I think there would be an energisation of the leave base should a second referendum be brought forward.

I think quite the opposite. The Remain side was caught napping last time - but now Remainers know it's do or die this time, vote Remain or lose EU citizenship, face the implosion of the economy, end of the Union, live in a diminished, insular, xenophobic England ruled by Brexiteers forever.

If that doesn't get them off their @rses to vote, they deserve what they get.

Tell me how

Gove flat out refusing to say when the title on Yellow Hammer was changed.
Obviously it is clear at this point that it was indeed created as a base document.

Tell me how

briany wrote: »

Nigel Farage hinting that a move to the U.S. is on the cards if and when Brexit is delivered.

I think he should be persuaded to stay and really bask in his handiwork. Crowds carrying him through the streets, that sort of thing.

Interesting piece from the linked article.

In the same interview the Brexiteer also slammed Remainer MPs like Chuka Umunna for switching parties.

"How these guys have any legitimacy I do not know. Chuka Umunna changed once, changed again."

The Brexit Party leader himself has previously switched between the Tories, UKIP and then eventually Brexit Party, having also backed the Green Party at one point in the 80s.

If you have the neck, you really can say anything can't you.

Joe_ Public

Maybe the vote itself is the easy part, its getting there that could be the tricky part. Maybe the PM will facilitate it by bringing back a fudged deal with a PV tagged on and its all hunky dory in double quick time. But somehow i dont see it happening like that. Instead it drags on, there'll be an enormous bunfight about how the referendum is framed, very possibly ending up in the courts, and unless there's a credible leave option offered, as labour keep insisting to general derision, i can only see it being problematic. Dominic Grieve thinks there should be a no deal option offered, but not sure about that myself, dont think that works.

briany

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Maybe the vote itself is the easy part, its getting there that could be the tricky part. Maybe the PM will facilitate it by bringing back a fudged deal with a PV tagged on and its all hunky dory in double quick time. But somehow i dont see it happening like that. Instead it drags on, there'll be an enormous bunfight about how the referendum is framed, very possibly ending up in the courts, and unless there's a credible leave option offered, as labour keep insisting to general derision, i can only see it being problematic. Dominic Grieve thinks there should be a no deal option offered, but not sure about that myself, dont think that works.

It's simple enough.

- 3 options on the ballot. No Deal, Deal (if there is one), Remain
- Voters write a number beside each in order of preference, with 1 being highest and 3 being lowest.
- Whichever option gets the least 1s has votes redistributed among the other two options
- Ballots which aren't fully filled-out are null and void.

I mean, I know the UK voting public doesn't exactly do complexity, but I'm confident that even they, with a little teaching and patience, could master this format and deliver a vote that more wholly represents the wishes of the voting public.

Chips Lovell

Memnoch wrote: »

He has not played into their hands at all. It is just relentless propaganda from a determinedly united establishment to stop him from taking any real action on wealth inequality and closing tax loopholes.

Going to have to disagree with you there. Time and again, he or the party he leads has managed to alienate potential voters and generously hand ammunition to their opponents.

Take the motion on primary education passed at this year's party conference. Lot's of good stuff in there about prioritising state schools and removing removing the charitable status of private schools. Ought to have been a sure-fire vote winner, especially now given the antics of Old Etonians over the past few years. But what do they go and do, but only also advocate seizing and redistributing the assets of private schools? People may not agree with private schools, but talk of expropriations will make a lot of voters very nervous.

Ditto with John McDonnell talking about letting tenants buy their houses for below market value. Again, higher taxes on landlords would likely attract a lot of support, but suggesting that someone could be forced to sell up their own property for less than the going rate is going to drive away a lot of potential support.

I don't think I've every come across a politician before who's said so much I'd agree with, yet I'd still hesitate to vote for. My main impression of Corbyn is that despite being of pensionable age, he hasn't moved far beyond student politics. He's seems too enamoured with radical chic to moderate his positions and make himself more electable.

It says a lot about his leadership that after a weak May government and a chaotically inept Johnson premiership, he could still lose the next election.

Joe_ Public

briany wrote: »

It's simple enough.

- 3 options on the ballot. No Deal, Deal (if there is one), Remain
- Voters write a number beside each in order of preference, with 1 being highest and 3 being lowest.
- Whichever option gets the least 1s has votes redistributed among the other two options
- Ballots which aren't fully filled-out are null and void.

I mean, I know the UK voting public doesn't exactly do complexity, but I'm confident that even they, with a little teaching and patience, could master this format and deliver a vote that more wholly represents the wishes of the voting public.

In theory, it's simple enough alright, but from following all this for past couple of years i find myself wary of anything that looks simple on paper. If you provide no deal, how then do you deal with a parliament that may not be willing to implement it? Do you make the referendum legally binding? I'm for the whole idea in principle, just dont think its straightforward to get right. Which is why i'm willing to give labour some credit for its approach, it at least acknowledges the complexities of it that i dont believe others do.

Akrasia

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1176833382174642176


Looks like the opposition is going to force Johnson's hand . It makes sense , move the request forward , force Johnson to ask for it , then call the GE

It makes perfect sense, of course, he will pretend that he was on the verge of striking a deal and the 'Remoaners' iterfered and took away his bargaining chips

Complete nonsense to anyone who is informed on the status of the negotiations, but amongst his supporters, that's not very many people

briany

Joe_ Public wrote: »

In theory, it's simple enough alright, but from following all this for past couple of years i find myself wary of anything that looks simple on paper. If you provide no deal, how then do you deal with a parliament that may not be willing to implement it? Do you make the referendum legally binding? I'm for the whole idea in principle, just dont think its straightforward to get right. Which is why i'm willing to give labour some credit for its approach, it at least acknowledges the complexities of it that i dont believe others do.

No, it's fairly simple. I think that in UK law no referendum can be legally binding, but each option represents a clear instruction to parliament with no real room for interpretation. The only potential problem would be another slim majority one way or another, but this is the risk the UK will always take if it has another referendum on the matter unless it has a supermajority in place, but this would never happen as it would be seen as stacking the deck.

As for parliament not willing to implement it, I don't think they care so much as keeping their respective seats. I think they'd be easier in delivering no-deal if they had the fallback of saying it was the expressed public wish.

MadYaker

maebee wrote: »

I predict that these two charlatans will be toast by the end of this year.

People have been saying that about Trump since he got elected. I wouldn't be so sure tbh on either counts.

Joe_ Public

Chips Lovell wrote: »

Going to have to disagree with you there. Time and again, he or the party he leads has managed to alienate potential voters and generously hand ammunition to their opponents.

Take the motion on primary education passed at this year's party conference. Lot's of good stuff in there about prioritising state schools and removing removing the charitable status of private schools. Ought to have been a sure-fire vote winner, especially now given the antics of Old Etonians over the past few years. But what do they go and do, but only also advocate seizing and redistributing the assets of private schools? People may not agree with private schools, but talk of expropriations will make a lot of voters very nervous.

Ditto with John McDonnell talking about letting tenants buy their houses for below market value. Again, higher taxes on landlords would likely attract a lot of support, but suggesting that someone could be forced to sell up their own property for less than the going rate is going to drive away a lot of potential support.

I don't think I've every come across a politician before who's said so much I'd agree with, yet I'd still hesitate to vote for. My main impression of Corbyn is that despite being of pensionable age, he hasn't moved far beyond student politics. He's seems too enamoured with radical chic to moderate his positions and make himself more electable.

It says a lot about his leadership that after a weak May government and a chaotically inept Johnson premiership, he could still lose the next election.

I agree to an extent. Good interesting, radical policies that got unfortunately lost amid the brexit flotsam, but they rather go too far. But i think by manifesto time they'll almost certainly be watered down to reflect a dynamic but still realistic approach, as is often the way. Remains to be seen, of course. Your assessment of Corbyn is interesting, as it seems to suggest he's stubborn and unbending in his positions (possibly true) while listening to other criticism of him here, it suggests he constantly flip flops and doesnt seem to know what his positions are at all. Personally i'm not that pro- or anti-, but i find him one of the most fascinating politicians of modern times, just the range of reactions he provokes alone. He faces crunch time for his whole project and is up against it, but there's a tendency to underestimate him so definitely not writing him off in this corner.

Tell me how

maebee wrote: »

I predict that these two charlatans will be toast by the end of this year.

I remember in 2016 telling people, imagine in 6 months, the leader of the 2 most impactful countries on Irish people, outside of Ireland, could be Trump and Johnson.

Scarcely believed it. Not confident either that they are on their last legs. Labour made a mess of presenting themselves as government ready at their conference this week and America is an absolute vipers nest in terms of what people will do to protect themselves. Pelosi's hesitancy in launching impeachment hearings and the weakness of an alternative to Trump from the Democrat side don't give me any confidence that things are going to change there.

FrancieBrady

What is the story with the PM, is he going to make an appearance?

Headshot

FrancieBrady wrote: »

What is the story with the PM, is he going to make an appearance?

Yup he should be on shortly.

More drivel expected from taunting for another election to lies on the way I would expect.

Headshot

FrancieBrady wrote: »

What is the story with the PM, is he going to make an appearance?

Confirmed to make an appearance at 18:30pm

GM228

Headshot wrote: »

Confirmed to make an appearance at 18:30pm

And Sky predicting he will throw it to the opposition to call for a vote of no confidence.

Enzokk

GM228 wrote: »

No, the Scottish court held "the circumstances demonstrate that the true reason for the prorogation is to reduce the time available for Parliamentary scrutiny of Brexit", the media just painted it as the court declaring specifically he lied to the Queen.

They may not have called him out on it but unless he sent those 3 Privy Council members in to tell the Queen they want to prorogue parliament to reduce scrutiny, they lied to her. We are not aware of the conversation and you can only think that the reason given by No.10 and The Palace for prorogation was the reason they brought to her. If that is the case, then he lied to the Queen.

Arghus wrote: »

Gove is such a polished talker that you'd nearly believe him.

He stated that car and retail are ready. A few hours later, well...

https://twitter.com/pkelso/status/1176904242084438016?s=20

That is voice for the automotive industry and the retail sector calling into question what Gove is saying. If they go from the fraud Cameron, to the vindictive liar May, to just the lying and incompetent Johnson and then to the lying and in my eyes scary Gove, then the UK deserves all the pain they have coming for them. Is this the best they have?

robinph

Just got an email from the kids primary school saying they will be closed for an election, obviously not giving any date though but expecting one in the next few weeks seems to be what they have been told.

Strazdas

robinph wrote: »

Just got an email from the kids primary school saying they will be closed for an election, obviously not giving any date though but expecting one in the next few weeks seems to be what they have been told.

The GE is definitely coming no matter what, presumably in November.

Tell me how

robinph wrote: »

Just got an email from the kids primary school saying they will be closed for an election, obviously not giving any date though but expecting one in the next few weeks seems to be what they have been told.

Why would any school email that they are going to be closed but not give a date?

What is the point? Are people going to be pleased that they have been told we are going to be closed one day at some point within the next 4-8 weeks?

Headshot

Headshot wrote: »

Confirmed to make an appearance at 18:30pm

Now sky are saying within the next hour

GM228

Andrew Bridgen asking who do the SC judges answer to when deflecting the question of an apology to the nation by Johnson, dear god.

Anyway, popcorn is ready...

prunudo

GM228 wrote: »

Andrew Bridgen asking who do the SC judges answer to when deflecting the question of an apology to the nation by Johnson, dear god.

Anyway, popcorn is ready...

Also said the whole thing is a storm in a tea cup. Nothing to see here, move along.

otnomart

started now...

Itssoeasy

He’s bloody some bull**** artist.

prunudo

Pretty poor showing from Johnson so far, the wind has been taken out of his bluster.

I wish they would also remember the other approx 45 million who didn't vote for Brexit when they continually mention the 17m who voted for it. Its like the 17m are the only proportion of the population that matter.