Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

MrMusician18

Water John wrote: »

The real Boris stood up last night. This is not the bumbling simpleton image he carefully cultivated, this was Boris showing his bare teeth. It wasn't a pleasant sight.
Andrew Marr alerted us some years ago to that. He knew the real Boris and said to his face, 'you are a nasty man, aren't you?'

Any one who votes with him now, owns him and what he stands for.

Glad Clarke and Harman are using their status to deal with this.
Bercow pointedly tried to rein in Boris last night but Boris didn't care. He behaved like a cornered rat.

It wasn't Andrew Marr, it was Eddie Mair.

Forty Seven

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Forty Seven wrote: »

The parliament is not the country. An election or another referendum will show that hence the reason we are getting neither.

So will you be voting Remain again of there is an election or Ref?

My Mp is a safe SNP so can't change anything there. I will likely spoil my vote as I don't support independence.

I will be more attentive to a referendum. I doubt we will see such simplistic options if one is offered. I will vote for what I think is best for the country. I would like a compromise but have yet to see one. If none is offerred I will have to vote remain. Then I will start digging a bunker.

FrancieBrady

Forty Seven wrote: »

My Mp is a safe SNP so can't change anything there. I will likely spoil my vote as I don't support independence.

I will be more attentive to a referendum. I doubt we will see such simplistic options if one is offered. I will vote for what I think is best for the country. I would like a compromise but have yet to see one. If none is offerred I will have to vote remain. Then I will start digging a bunker.

But meanwhile you are going to trenchantly support a PM who will not compromise? I get it.

Water John

A lot of Tory MPs know Boris went too far. Big efforts by them today to go past the vitriol of yesterday. That is backbenchers, doubt the front bench will comply.
Stephen Parkinson former advisor to TM, enviscerating Johnson. He esp noted at the end that Johnson was asked 6 times last night if he would obey the Benn Bill and he answered No. The PM thus said in Parliament that he would not obey the law.

GM228

One of the few to publicly support some of Johnson's select words:-

https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1177149837181149184?s=19

When Boris Johnson uses words like surrender and betrayal, he is right

But, there really is no surprise there coming from Farage.

ZX7R

Forty Seven wrote: »

I lived in Galway 15 years, Poland for 2 and my children are distributed between Ireland, Spain and one will be born tomorrow here in the UK. I own land in Poland and a house in Ireland. I'd be mad to have voted to leave.

Unless you are a polish citizen or married to a polish person the maths don't add up for owning land in Poland

woejus

Forty Seven wrote: »

I voted remain.

I never said which way you voted? You voted in the referendum, correct?

ZX7R

20silkcut wrote: »

The frightening thought is that we have had 70 years of peace in the worlds most historically violent war torn continent.
Maybe it’s an unnaturally long period.

Not really plenty of civil wars in former block countries that every major player had their noses stuck into

GM228

Good article in the Irish Times showing the UK vs EU perspective on things:-

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/brexit-how-dublin-and-brussels-view-the-current-state-of-play-1.4031179?mode=amp

The EU side has severe doubts about the British government’s desire and ability to 1) reach a deal, and 2) pass a deal through parliament.

Johnson’s pronouncements that both sides know the shape of a deal – Northern Ireland-only backstop, all-Ireland sanitary and phytosanitary zone, alternative arrangements to manage the Border, a consent role for Stormont – ignore the fact that this is miles away from the existing withdrawal agreement.

The EU believes that Johnson’s political authority has been severely damaged by Tuesday’s supreme court judgment that his five-week suspension of parliament was “unlawful”.This will be exacerbated by the scenes in the House of Commons last night. This makes it harder - if not impossible - for him to pull together a coalition in favour of a deal that would offend Tory Brexiteers and Labour Remainers (many of whom are facing reselection) to pass a new deal in the Commons. In fact, the draining of his political capital constrains his options generally and makes it probably impossible for him to employ devices to get around the Benn Act, which seeks to block a no-deal. All this, it is now widely believed, makes an extension more likely, whether it is Johnson who asks for it or not.

Forty Seven

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Forty Seven wrote: »

My Mp is a safe SNP so can't change anything there. I will likely spoil my vote as I don't support independence.

I will be more attentive to a referendum. I doubt we will see such simplistic options if one is offered. I will vote for what I think is best for the country. I would like a compromise but have yet to see one. If none is offerred I will have to vote remain. Then I will start digging a bunker.

But meanwhile you are going to trenchantly support a PM who will not compromise? I get it.

My belief is that he is trying to force the issue. Keeping no deal as a negotiating tool makes perfect sense. Parliament needed a wake up and he put them on their first snooze. Now we wait and see what happens.

VinLieger

Forty Seven wrote: »

My belief is that he is trying to force the issue. Keeping no deal as a negotiating tool makes perfect sense. Parliament needed a wake up and he put them on their first snooze. Now we wait and see what happens.

This right here is why people do not believe you voted remain. The idea that shooting your own foot off could be used as a negotiating tool makes no sense whatsoever as is ripped straight from bexiteer talking points.

FrancieBrady

Forty Seven wrote: »

My belief is that he is trying to force the issue.

Force what issue?

There is a deal on the table, we know he is making no serious attempts to negotiate a new one, and that he will not ask for an extension. We also know the EU have been clear, concise and adamant since the WA was agreed, it will not be reopened.

What is he trying to 'force'?

J Mysterio

Forty Seven wrote: »

Really? You think this is going to end without bloodshed?

We are on about chapter 5 of the future bestseller 'WW3 a complete history'.

Chapter 1 was the financial crisis. We are at the polarisation phase and mistrust of political systems. Soon will come the strong leaders.

You'll be one of the first over the top for Blighty?

lawred2

Forty Seven wrote: »

My belief is that he is trying to force the issue. Keeping no deal as a negotiating tool makes perfect sense. Parliament needed a wake up and he put them on their first snooze. Now we wait and see what happens.

What are you waffling about? Parliament has rendered him completely powerless.

PeadarCo

Forty Seven wrote:

My belief is that he is trying to force the issue. Keeping no deal as a negotiating tool makes perfect sense. Parliament needed a wake up and he put them on their first snooze. Now we wait and see what happens.

It's crazy keeping no deal as a negotiation tool for the UK. For the EU it only makes getting a good deal from the EUs perspective even easier. The UK must do a deal with the EU. So a few days later after a no deal the UK has to start a multi year trade negotiation with its economy wrecked.

The idea that a the EU is afraid of a no deal is pure fantasy. Certain EU countries would even welcome a no deal. No deal is not and never was a negotiation tool. The biggest concession the UK has managed in talks so far is the UK wide backstop. The reaction to this concession tells you all you need to know about the UKs bargaining power. That's before a no deal scenario. And remember one EUs reaction to the threats of a no deal was Luxembourg humiliating Boris Johnson.

El Weirdo

Forty Seven wrote: »

I'd be mad to have voted to leave.

That didn't stop Welsh sheep farmers or "ex-pats" living in Spain from doing so.

prawnsambo

Forty Seven wrote: »

My belief is that he is trying to force the issue. Keeping no deal as a negotiating tool makes perfect sense. Parliament needed a wake up and he put them on their first snooze. Now we wait and see what happens.

It makes no sense whatsoever. The EU caving to this kind of MAD blackmail would be the death knell of the Union. And monumentally stupid. It's been a long standing brexiter talking point that never stood up to a minute's scrutiny since it is so destructive to the UK economy. The only reason Johnson is invoking it now is to persuade the erstwhile Tory voters who have defected to the BP that he's their man. It's purely for internal consumption as is the faux talks and alternative arrangements discussions with the EU that are going nowhere because they have no substance. Johnson is working from the Trump playbook and trying to build a base of the so-called 17.4 million who he thinks will lap this stuff up and sweep him into a majority.

Unfortunately for him, the 17.4 million are made up of many different strands of brexiters who don't all think that no-deal is a good idea. There is no majority for him on this path.

CelticRambler

20silkcut wrote: »

The frightening thought is that we have had 70 years of peace in the worlds most historically violent war torn continent.

Uhhhh ... 70 years? There were more than three decades of violence and war within the territory of United Kingdom of GB&NI alone in the last 70 years.

Forty Seven

ZX7R wrote: »

Forty Seven wrote: »

I lived in Galway 15 years, Poland for 2 and my children are distributed between Ireland, Spain and one will be born tomorrow here in the UK. I own land in Poland and a house in Ireland. I'd be mad to have voted to leave.

Unless you are a polish citizen or married to a polish person the maths don't add up for owning land in Poland

My ex is polish. The land was bought together, currently before Irish family court. It's our own personal European nightmare. Spread across 3 countries and zero consensus.

ZX7R

Forty Seven wrote: »

My ex is polish. The land was bought together, currently before Irish family court. It's our own personal European nightmare. Spread across 3 countries and zero consensus.

Sorry to hear,
Best of luck with that, just a heads up, polish courts have the last say in polish land rights,it won't matter what Irish courts rule

lawred2

20silkcut wrote: »

The frightening thought is that we have had 70 years of peace in the worlds most historically violent war torn continent.
Maybe it’s an unnaturally long period.

what a uniquely British interpretation of peace... ignoring a British civil war on the island of Ireland for near half of those '70 years of peace'

lawred2

CelticRambler wrote: »

Uhhhh ... 70 years? There were more than three decades of violence and war within the territory of United Kingdom of GB&NI alone in the last 70 years.

you beat me to it

prawnsambo

lawred2 wrote: »

what a uniquely British interpretation of peace... ignoring a British civil war on the island of Ireland for near half of those '70 years of peace'

To be fair, I don't think he was talking about 'local' wars, otherwise we'd be (and should) include the Balkans as well.

ZX7R

prawnsambo wrote: »

To be fair, I don't think he was talking about 'local' wars, otherwise we'd be (and should) include the Balkans as well.

There Never is local wars as such, there is always interference from other nations

lawred2

prawnsambo wrote: »

To be fair, I don't think he was talking about 'local' wars, otherwise we'd be (and should) include the Balkans as well.

Well NATO got involved in the Balkans so that doesn't even fit in to a 'local' war category.

Water John

Ken Clarke is such a wonderful Parliamentarian. Really called out the PM's strategy of deliberate abuse.

prawnsambo

lawred2 wrote: »

Well NATO got involved in the Balkans so that doesn't even fit in to a 'local' war category.

Yes. But it didn't spill over the borders of what used to be Yugoslavia. The context of the OPs post was the world wars, which should have been obvious, given the time span he indicated.

Forty Seven

ZX7R wrote: »

Forty Seven wrote: »

My ex is polish. The land was bought together, currently before Irish family court. It's our own personal European nightmare. Spread across 3 countries and zero consensus.

Sorry to hear,
Best of luck with that, just a heads up, polish courts have the last say in polish land rights,it won't matter what Irish courts rule

I know, it's not as easy getting out as it was getting in.

My post about leverage. He's not trying to force the eu. He's forcing parliament to move. They have, now he just needs some kind of differently worded deal and they will either pass it or he gets an election. That's what I see. Hes trying to break a stalemate. You have to offer or threaten something different.

I'm bowing out. My partner is going in to be induced tomorrow and I have a lot to do. I will be back with another child in tow in a couple of days.

To answer the question of whether I'll be first over the top. No. I'm too old but I have children who might be expected. That's why I am more informed than most in this matter, that's also why I come here. You guys are very good with the facts.

Regards.

prawnsambo

Forty Seven wrote: »

I know, it's not as easy getting out as it was getting in.

My post about leverage. He's not trying to force the eu. He's forcing parliament to move. They have, now he just needs some kind of differently worded deal and they will either pass it or he gets an election. That's what I see. Hes trying to break a stalemate. You have to offer or threaten something different.

I'm bowing out. My partner is going in to be induced tomorrow and I have a lot to do. I will be back with another child in tow in a couple of days.

To answer the question of whether I'll be first over the top. No. I'm too old but I have children who might be expected. That's why I am more informed than most in this matter, that's also why I come here. You guys are very good with the facts.

Regards.

Good luck. Hope all goes well for all concerned.

WomanSkirtFan8

Forty Seven wrote: »

I know, it's not as easy getting out as it was getting in.

My post about leverage. He's not trying to force the eu. He's forcing parliament to move. They have, now he just needs some kind of differently worded deal and they will either pass it or he gets an election. That's what I see. Hes trying to break a stalemate. You have to offer or threaten something different.

I'm bowing out. My partner is going in to be induced tomorrow and I have a lot to do. I will be back with another child in tow in a couple of days.

To answer the question of whether I'll be first over the top. No. I'm too old but I have children who might be expected. That's why I am more informed than most in this matter, that's also why I come here. You guys are very good with the facts.

Regards.

good luck dude. Hope it all works out for you.