Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

FrancieBrady

Forty Seven wrote: »

I know, it's not as easy getting out as it was getting in.

My post about leverage. He's not trying to force the eu. He's forcing parliament to move. They have, now he just needs some kind of differently worded deal and they will either pass it or he gets an election. That's what I see. Hes trying to break a stalemate. You have to offer or threaten something different.

I'm bowing out. My partner is going in to be induced tomorrow and I have a lot to do. I will be back with another child in tow in a couple of days.

To answer the question of whether I'll be first over the top. No. I'm too old but I have children who might be expected. That's why I am more informed than most in this matter, that's also why I come here. You guys are very good with the facts.

Regards.

He has lost 6 votes, prorogued parliament and got pinged by the Supreme Court and still has got nothing to present a parliament that is now united against him rendering him a lame duck powerless PM the like of whom we have probably never seen.

Good luck with the impending birth.

prawnsambo

Forty Seven wrote: »

My post about leverage. He's not trying to force the eu. He's forcing parliament to move. They have, now he just needs some kind of differently worded deal and they will either pass it or he gets an election. That's what I see. Hes trying to break a stalemate. You have to offer or threaten something different.

I'd agree that this is his strategy, I said before that it had to be internally focused. But it's going to fail. If he hadn't shot his feet off by expelling Tory rebels (and tried to bring them with him even), he may have had a chance. But now he's in a serious minority and his faux negotiations with the EU have been laid bare. So he can't really promise a 'new' deal since there isn't even the semblance of one at this stage. But more fundamentally, he's lost the trust of parliament. He could conceivably come back with a NI only backstop, but he's burned so many bridges, I really doubt that even that would get through now. It's been a clusterfcuk of epic proportions imo.

jmayo

CelticRambler wrote: »

Uhhhh ... 70 years? There were more than three decades of violence and war within the territory of United Kingdom of GB&NI alone in the last 70 years.

In the grand scheme of Europe's history that is an inconsequential blip.
Likewise with the breakup of Yugoslavia.

We haven't had a major conflict between major European states in the last 70 odd years.

AllForIt

Peregrinus wrote: »

"All this talk of death threats is humbug; just do as I say and you won't receive death threats any more." is the gist of what he said. Going on to claim that "the best way to honor the memory of Jo Cox would be to get Brexit done" is just the cherry of personal vitriol on top of the sundae of fascism.

Since we're doing read between the lines, then what Paula Sheiff said was "Boris - the language you use is inciting people to make death threats and even carry them out so if there are any further murders you'll be personally responsible".

It was a slimy opportunistic comment by Sheiff and presenting it in stereotypical hysterical fashion per her gender didn't do anything to create an air of authenticity to her comment. Cuz you know they're good at faking it. I hear Joe's brother ain't to pleased with her name being dragged into the BREXIT debate. I don't believe it's the first time that's been done either - perhaps Labour though they were onto a winner doing so. Pull at the ole heart strings.

For one side of the Brexit argument to stand up in the HoC and chastise the other side for their language after what we've witnessed over the last 3 years is laughable. Clearly done to create the illusion of one side occupying the moral high ground. Pathetic, in that if they think it's going sway that public in their direction - no it won't. The public just see more of the same the minute parliament was recalled. Glad to see BJ didn't 'melt' under the onslaught. Sorry, that's the only ice cream analogy I can think of.

Water John

I think its best to refer you to the criticism of Alexander Johnson by his own sister Rachel. She is absolutely appalled and says so publicly.

prunudo

Getting personal now, his sister is having a pop at him calling the language he used as tasteless.

http://news.sky.com/story/boris-johnsons-language-was-tasteless-says-his-sister-11819940

lawred2

AllForIt wrote: »

Since we're doing read between the lines, then what Paula Sheiff said was "Boris - the language you use is inciting people to make death threats and even carry them out so if there are any further murders you'll be personally responsible".

It was a slimy opportunistic comment by Sheiff and presenting it in stereotypical hysterical fashion per her gender didn't do anything to create an air of authenticity to her comment. Cuz you know they're good at faking it. I hear Joe's brother ain't to pleased with her name being dragged into the BREXIT debate. I don't believe it's the first time that's been done either - perhaps Labour though they were onto a winner doing so. Pull at the ole heart strings.

For one side of the Brexit argument to stand up in the HoC and chastise the other side for their language after what we've witnessed over the last 3 years is laughable. Clearly done to create the illusion of one side occupying the moral high ground. Pathetic, in that if they think it's going sway that public in their direction - no it won't. The public just see more of the same the minute parliament was recalled. Glad to see BJ didn't 'melt' under the onslaught. Sorry, that's the only ice cream analogy I can think of.

Take your dislike for women elsewhere

Itssoeasy

Water John wrote: »

I think its best to refer you to the criticism of Alexander Johnson by his own sister Rachel. She is absolutely appalled and says so publicly.

Just saw her comments. The Christmas dinner in the Johnson house this year will be interesting. His brother left the government and parliament and his sister is calling his Language in parliament was "reprehensible"

FrancieBrady

Are there any motions down for today? Or just more back and forth.

Seth Brundle

...and the EU is back to repeating itself to the UK...
https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1177166036023611392


https://twitter.com/GermanyDiplo/status/1176163657320980480

20silkcut

lawred2 wrote: »

what a uniquely British interpretation of peace... ignoring a British civil war on the island of Ireland for near half of those '70 years of peace'

Crikey I’m not British. I ignored the Balkan conflict as well. There is no doubt that the last 70 years in Europe were a lot more peaceful than the previous 70 and indeed for 1000 + years before that.
A lot of that is because of the EU.
I’m just wondering could that period be coming to an end. Is this 70 year period just an outlier? Britain is a serious player openly attacking and wishing the destruction of the EU. That is all. I’m not taking sides with one poster or another.

biker16

first time poster,long time lurker the only logical way out of this mess has and always been the northern ireland only backstop...there is no other way of delivering brexit without dropping major red lines(not really a runner for boris)..it looks like its all falling apart for johnston...he wont get an election before the 31st now and will be forced to ask for an extension(which he said he would never do) so with the pressure that johnston was trying to put on parliament being flipped back onto himself is it possible that johnston will drop some red lines or do something with a northern irish only backstop to save his own backside at this rate...otherwise whats left?resign or get pushed out one or the other and johnston would do anything to avoid this humiliation...this is my unqualified view obviously!would anyone have any other views on how boris can make boris great again also to add obviously from the european side there will be no deal offered better than theresa mays deal so that rules out movement on the EU side...

Water John

Overall, a bad miscalculation by Cummings and Johnson and their Bannon playbook.

Sparko

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Are there any motions down for today? Or just more back and forth.

There's a motion to adjourn parliament to allow the Conservative conference to go ahead.

Bannasidhe

20silkcut wrote: »

Crikey I’m not British. I ignored the Balkan conflict as well. There is no doubt that the last 70 years in Europe were a lot more peaceful than the previous 70 and indeed for 1000 + years before that.
A lot of that is because of the EU.
I’m just wondering could that period be coming to an end. That is all. I’m not taking sides with one poster or another.

Bizarrely, I think the GUBU going on the the UK might actually help prolong the continental peace we have enjoyed under the EU for a bit longer.
Reason being those who were calling to leave in other EU states appear to have shut up. Looking at Brexit from the outside all but the most fervent nationalists will see that it's not looking like a good thing for a country to do.
Even Brexit's most ardent supporter the Right Hon R Mogg has stated it may be 50 years before the 'benefits' are felt - which is longer than the UK has actually been in the EU.

listermint

Bannasidhe wrote: »

Bizarrely, I think the GUBU going on the the UK might actually help prolong the continental peace we have enjoyed under the EU for a bit longer.
Reason being those who were calling to leave in other EU states appear to have shut up. Looking at Brexit from the outside all but the most fervent nationalists will see that it's not looking like a good thing for a country to do.
Even Brexit's most ardent supporter the Right Hon R Mogg has stated it may be 50 years before the 'benefits' are felt - which is longer than the UK has actually been in the EU.

Demonstrated severely in Poland and Italy where the 'lets leave the EU' talk has all but died down to nothing from its leading right wing parties. They are still Anti EU but the leave stuff is not used any longer, at least not in public

Enzokk

This is only a little frightening for MPs,

https://twitter.com/rowenamason/status/1177185908438831106?s=20

So Cummings was confronted by an MP about the language used and the threats it is bringing to MPs, and his response is to get them to vote for a Brexit deal? Do as I want or get hurt, is that really the message here? That is what happens when you let someone who is in contempt of parliament in as a special adviser. You get someone who doesn't care for laws or even common decency.

MadYaker

biker16 wrote: »

first time poster,long time lurker the only logical way out of this mess has and always been the northern ireland only backstop...there is no other way of delivering brexit without dropping major red lines(not really a runner for boris)..it looks like its all falling apart for johnston...he wont get an election before the 31st now and will be forced to ask for an extension(which he said he would never do) so with the pressure that johnston was trying to put on parliament being flipped back onto himself is it possible that johnston will drop some red lines or do something with a northern irish only backstop to save his own backside at this rate...otherwise whats left?resign or get pushed out one or the other and johnston would do anything to avoid this humiliation...this is my unqualified view obviously!would anyone have any other views on how boris can make boris great again also to add obviously from the european side there will be no deal offered better than theresa mays deal so that rules out movement on the EU side...

It seems the easiest way forward and I’m not sure why it hasn’t been announced thats it’s going to happen. What use are the DUPs votes to Johnson’s government in the current situation?

20silkcut

MadYaker wrote: »

It seems the easiest way forward and I’m not sure why it hasn’t been announced thats it’s going to happen. What use are the DUPs votes to Johnson’s government in the current situation?

The next parliament could be as hung as this one.
The DUP could still be relevant after the next election.

J Mysterio

MadYaker wrote: »

It seems the easiest way forward and I’m not sure why it hasn’t been announced thats it’s going to happen. What use are the DUPs votes to Johnson’s government in the current situation?

The WA has even less support now then when May was in government.

Its the best deal possible given the red lines.

quokula

MadYaker wrote: »

It seems the easiest way forward and I’m not sure why it hasn’t been announced thats it’s going to happen. What use are the DUPs votes to Johnson’s government in the current situation?

The problem is that the backstop is just an excuse for the hardliners to vote against any deal - they'll find something else to cling onto if that was no longer there.

In addition to that the vast majority of those voting against the WA (i.e. the opposition) either did so because they've been holding out for a second referendum, or wanted May to drop her red lines and go for a closer relationship and a customs union.

FrancieBrady

20silkcut wrote: »

The next parliament could be as hung as this one.
The DUP could still be relevant after the next election.

They aren't much addition to a government that wants a deal. Ask Theresa May.

reslfj

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Bus Eireann and Dublin bus are going to have to find a new supplier of buses it seems.

Tariff for new busses imported into the EU (e.g. Ireland) from a 3. country (WTO MFN) seems to be 16% (Product 87021011)

This is the 'No Deal' case.
When you voted for a border - looks like you got it and all the benefits - including unemployment benefits.

Insolvency or no insolvency - a 16% tariff would have made NI built busses non-competitive within the EU27 anyway.


Lars

20silkcut

quokula wrote: »

The problem is that the backstop is just an excuse for the hardliners to vote against any deal - they'll find something else to cling onto if that was no longer there.

In addition to that the vast majority of those voting against the WA (i.e. the opposition) either did so because they've been holding out for a second referendum, or wanted May to drop her red lines and go for a closer relationship and a customs union.

If that’s the case brexit will never happen.

quokula

20silkcut wrote: »

If that’s the case brexit will never happen.

Not before an election. After one, a deal without May's red lines could have a decent chance of getting through. Even now there would be a lot of support in Labour and amongst moderate Tories / ex-Tories, but it wouldn't get through without SNP support and I'm not sure if they're all-in on second referendum or bust.

Harry Palmr

Hopefully the house will vote against a recess for the Tory party conference. Make them stay in class.

Professor Moriarty

I'm guessing that Johnson has narrowed down his future options for any possible coalition/confidence and supply scenario in the past few days. Not the smartest move given the polls.

A Dub in Glasgo

We are almost at the point where it is not possible to hold an election before 31 October. The case in Scotland for an official to p.p the extension request letter should Johnson refuse to sign is still to be heard in the courts

FrancieBrady

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

We are almost at the point where it is not possible to hold an election before 31 October. The case in Scotland for an official to p.p the extension request letter should Johnson refuse to sign is still to be heard in the courts

If that wins, the UK's political system has to be consigned to the bin. How could that be a workable situation? Government would be rendered redundant surely?

A Dub in Glasgo

FrancieBrady wrote: »

If that wins, the UK's political system has to be consigned to the bin. How could that be a workable situation? Government would be rendered redundant surely?

A Prime Minister refusing to obey the law is making his own government redundant. It allows the extension letter to be sent and then general election to take place