Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

J Mysterio

Boris today doubled down on his language to 1922 Committee. What a sonofabitch.

Mr Johnson told a meeting of the influential 1922 Committee of backbench Tory MPs today that he had no intention of watering down his description of the rebel legislation.

He was rebuked by Commons Speaker John Bercow last night for repeatedly referring to the so-called Benn Act as the 'Surrender Act', prompting howls of derision from opposition MPs.

But Mr Johnson reportedly told his backbenchers that ‘they [Labour] are trying to drive us off the word surrender because they know it is cutting through’.

Source

A Dub in Glasgo

Akabusi wrote: »

With the performance yesterday his great plan was likely to try and goad the opposition into an early election, they rightly haven't fallen for that and if anything he'll have turned off a lot of moderates with his comments on Jo Cox.

Now he will look for an extension, he has no other choice, his simple message will be that he had was forced into it by a parliament who want to go against the people's will.

His promise will be to elect him with a strong majority and he will deliver Brexit no matter what the opposition try.

However the likely outcome of another election is that Johnson will have a lower number of seats than he has now.
In England on one side, the Brexit party will be eating away at him and on the other the Lib Dems will gobble up most of the moderates. I think Labour will perform similar to how it did last time. They will lose votes to the Brexit party in the hard line leave areas but gain some of the moderates to make up for this somewhat.
The Conservatives could end up not winning any seats in Scotland.
The Brexit Party could pick up somewhere around 3 - 5 seats because Johnson failed on the Oct 31st promise and where they don't win them they just dilute the Tory vote.
The Lib Dems gain about 10 - 15 seats, mostly from previously held Conservative seats but also a few Labour.
The DUP will loose 1 if not 2 seats to the Alliance Party, maybe SF could loose one to them as well.

I just don't see where Johnson gets enough votes to get a majority. Most likely in my mind is a Labour/Lib Dem coalition and if really needed the SNP but that will come at the price of independence for Scotland.

Not sure I see your optimism

If Labour still perform broadly as before and Lib Dems only gaining 10-15 seats, they will still be behind. The only way it can work is if the SNP are in the equation and they will inisist on a section 30 order to hold an independence referendum in Scotland (not the same thing as independence for Scotland). Swinson has performed verbal gymnastics about mandates and second referendums where most folk see her hypocrisy. she may even lose her seat

Sparko

A man has apparently been arrested in Birmingham for attacking the constituency office of Jess Phillips while shouting fascist.

Just reported on Sky News now.

VinLieger

Sparko wrote: »

A man has apparently been arrested in Birmingham for attacking the constituency office of Jess Phillips while shouting fascist.

Just reported on Sky News now.

The irony of this is not even funny, its kind of terrifying how peoples ignorance can be weaponised so easily and offhandedly

Fully expect bojo and moggy to victim blame her without batting an eyelid.

ath262

from SeanWhelan (RTE) - a general election cannot now be held before October 31...

https://twitter.com/seanwhelanRTE/status/1177209389872234496

LeinsterDub

ath262 wrote: »

from SeanWhelan (RTE) - a general election cannot now be held before October 31...

https://twitter.com/seanwhelanRTE/status/1177209389872234496

No what it means is you just need put a line in the bill saying the old law no longer applies or will continue to apply but just not in this case . It's this one line bill you may have heard about yesterday which would get a round the FTPA

VinLieger

LeinsterDub wrote: »

No what it means is you just need put a line in the bill saying the old law no longer applies or will continue to apply but just not in this case . It's this one line bill you may have heard about yesterday which would get a round the FTPA

That one lin bill specifically is regards the 2/3 required for calling an election under FTPA and changing ti to a simple majority, i think something else would be also needed to move the date to prior to the 31st as it will change the entire standardised schedule of the election process

ath262

so an election is basically out of the control of Boris & Co. - if the Rebel Alliance holds, then they are not going to call election until extension has been agreed, and Boris has missed hi out by the 31st promise

A Dub in Glasgo

LeinsterDub wrote: »

No what it means is you just need put a line in the bill saying the old law no longer applies or will continue to apply but just not in this case . It's this one line bill you may have heard about yesterday which would get a round the FTPA

The minimum time to prepare for the election is 25 working days which is 5 weeks

The earliest an election can take place is 1st Nov

ath262

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

The minimum time to prepare for the election is 25 working days which is 5 weeks

The earliest an election can take place is 1st Nov

I think the 25 days prep. could also be overridden by a one-off election option, but only the alliance has majority to get a bill like this through...

Tell me how

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

The minimum time to prepare for the election is 25 working days which is 5 weeks

The earliest an election can take place is 1st Nov

The next election is going to be 100% a defacto referendum with virtually zero time given to developing manifestos relating to other areas of UK society other than Brexit.

There'll be BS statements such as 4 day week, 75 gazillion a day for the NHS, everyone will be trained as a policeman and so on but they will receive zero attention.

It is stunning that a country with the history of the UK could, in the 21st century refuse to run a referendum and run a General Election in this way, all the while pontificating about upholding democracy.

prawnsambo

Bannasidhe wrote: »

Swinson was fairly adamant.
Anyone but Corbyn -including Harriet Harmen who would still have been a Labour PM so I'm not sure the argument that it was about party not person holds water.

There's a big difference between the leader of the LP and the 'Mother of the house'. And you're forgetting that she softened her stance on the subject following on from some Tory rebels saying that they would be able to support such a GNU.

Bannasidhe wrote: »

For whatever reason is it ridiculous to complain that the current PM is playing fast and loose with conventions while seeking to do the exact same thing yourself.

A convention that's hardly ever been used? Even the ones that held power in the early part of the last century, were more like coalition governments and afaik, none were in the form currently being suggested for a period as short as has been suggested.

Bannasidhe wrote: »

If the PM is going to be removed, and it is not possible for a member of his/her party to form a government (which is what happened when May was 'removed' ), the convention is that the leader of the largest opposition party would be invited to try and form a government, even a minority 'caretaker' government to guide the ship of State until a GE can be held.

There is no 'as long as you approve of them' clause.

There is such an implicit clause in the requirement for them to have the support of parliament.

MrMusician18

ath262 wrote: »

I think the 25 days prep. could also be overridden by a one-off election option, but only the alliance has majority to get a bill like this through...

It could be overridden, but the traditional timeframe came about due to the time required for the logistics of an election.
There needs to be an amount of time for nominations to be submitted and the time offered must be fair. There is also the time needed to print and distribute ballot papers.

Interestingly ballot papers are numbered and the number is recorded against the electoral roll in the polling station in the UK. So it's not really a true secret ballot

Tell me how

Boris Johnson's sister discussing his motivations for using the language he has been using.

https://twitter.com/LittleGravitas/status/1177209400332881921

His. sister.

This after his brother resigned from his government.

A Dub in Glasgo

ath262 wrote: »

I think the 25 days prep. could also be overridden by a one-off election option, but only the alliance has majority to get a bill like this through...

Anything can be changed but at the moment, 5 weeks is the law in the UK overseen by the Electoral Commission. It allows time for all the logistics

See the document referenced in this link

https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/media/2184

LeinsterDub

ath262 wrote: »

I think the 25 days prep. could also be overridden by a one-off election option, but only the alliance has majority to get a bill like this through...

The UK constitution is ultimately one line. 'Parliament is sovereign'. Want to bring back hanging just get 50% plus 1 of the MPs present in the HoC at the time to vote for it. All the rest is just noise

prunudo

J Mysterio wrote: »

Boris today doubled down on his language to 1922 Committee. What a sonofabitch.

Everything that I've heard and read about his behaviour in the last few days is straight out of the Donald Trump playbook. I thought he was more intelligent than that but either power has gone to his head or he's being led by his advisers.

Tell me how

Apparently a 36 year old man has been arrested after trying to enter Jess Philips constituency office screaming 'fascist'.
I wonder how long before MP's receive anonymous notes with the word Humbug included on it.

Jess challenged Boris in the lobby of Westminster this morning and asked him how did he feel about being quoted on a death threat sent to her but he didn't really respond.

Enzokk

With the news that someone broke into the office of Jess Phillips and shouted fascist and the PM not backing down I think this tweet and thread takes on more significance. This is the daughter of Yvette Cooper and Ed Balls so she has been part of the political life for a long time. It is a thread to please do open it and read what she has to say.

https://twitter.com/ellieelizaa/status/1177202032823939072?s=20

Strazdas

Enzokk wrote: »

With the news that someone broke into the office of Jess Phillips and shouted fascist and the PM not backing down I think this tweet and thread takes on more significance. This is the daughter of Yvette Cooper and Ed Balls so she has been part of the political life for a long time. It is a thread to please do open it and read what she has to say.

https://twitter.com/ellieelizaa/status/1177202032823939072?s=20

Interesting tweet underneath : Johnson and Cummings apparently are convinced inflammatory language and aggression is a vote winner

https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1177173630507245569

devnull

Tell me how wrote: »

Apparently a 36 year old man has been arrested after trying to enter Jess Philips constituency office screaming 'fascist'.
I wonder how long before MP's receive anonymous notes with the word Humbug included on it.

Jess challenged Boris in the lobby of Westminster this morning and asked him how did he feel about being quoted on a death threat sent to her but he didn't really respond.

Society is completely broken in the UK and people are hugely divided and sooner or later someone is going to get killed and I'd be shocked if they are the only ones. My own family situation gets worse by the week as I'm now banned from my uncles because of my "anti-democratic views" which basically means I'm kicked out of the family as far as he is concerned and my relationship with my father is fast heading the same way as I am not going to align myself with far right views and that will never change. Every time I speak to him I have his far right views rammed down my throat.

I cannot even start a conversation with my father without Brexit being mentioned and some comment about Boris Johnson delivering on the peoples will and how he is the best Prime Minister ever, and how I should stop trying to prevent the will of the people. My father is so obsessed with this that he doesn't want to talk about anything else. This is what Britain has become, a situation where delivering Brexit is more important than anything else, even family relationships.

I have seen a few furious arguments about Brexit where people are really starting to lose it and as has been said on twitter last night and today, yesterday things started to boil over and it's no surprise that an MP has been intimidated like this. This is going to be a wider problem for society in the UK soon and the police are going to have a tough time controlling it and it's all going to be Boris Johnson's fault. I'm seeing even mild mannered people on the remain side now also starting to get to the point where they are now furious and on the edge of boiling over.

As someone who has grown up in a mixture of the UK and Ireland what happens now is honestly the darkest time for me for a country that I used to admire but now I just hate it, I hate that my job means I have to work from there at times, I hate the level of debate and the breakdown of society and what it has done to personal and family relationships. It is so wrong and it rattles my moral bones very heavily and honestly if I was there I'm not sure how much longer I would be able to put up with it before it would drive me totally insane.

The United Kingdom is severely broken, perhaps beyond repair. Unfortunately there will be many victims of this and sadly unless this agenda is stopped soon, then people being the victim of attacks and being badly injured is inevitable and today's despicable act of intimidation to a passionate MP like Jess, is just going to be the start of far, far, far worse to come.

Sorry for the rant, but honestly, this is what it's like to have a connection with the UK and hate every single thing about how it is now and have to face the reality of how it impacts personal relationships and how Brexit has poisoned the whole country.

This is the country that the ERG and Boris and pals have created.

woohoo!!!

An interesting one with his sister publicly criticising him. I don't think it hurts him, probably reflects what's going on in households up and down the country.

Back to yesterday's rhetoric and bluster, it's all just spitting out the dummy and throwing the toys out of the pram. He can't get his way and he only has himself to blame. Each new tactic and cunning plan has only served to drop him deeper in the doodoo.

So here's one cunning phrase to fling back in his face (and a nod to Mourinho), he's a 'specialist in failure', has the track record to prove it and it would be wise to dismiss any other plans he suggests. Cummings coarse tactics will I think only alienate people and will backfire.

Tell me how

Strazdas wrote: »

Interesting tweet underneath : Johnson and Cummings apparently are convinced inflammatory language and aggression is a vote winner

I've said it already. I see what is going on and how it is being done has Steve Bannon's fingerprints all over it. Maybe I'm being too cynical but the similarities between the invective in the US and here and the relationships amongst some of the key people involved makes me think it is extremely likely to be the case.

Maybe it just goes as far as cummings seeing how Trump succeeded and deciding to copy that playbook but I wouldn't be surprised if there is even more direct contact.

darem93

Just when you thought they couldn't sink any lower. Here they are literally justifying attacks against her.

https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/1177256643094036481

gooch2k9

darem93 wrote: »

Just when you thought they couldn't sink any lower. Here they are literally justifying attacks against her.

https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/1177256643094036481

Considering we're talking about a country where a girl was charged for quoting song lyrics which included a racial slur on Twitter, I cannot comprehend how tweets such as that are let go.

Yvette Cooper's daughter's Twitter thread was a good read. Very well written but the message will be lost on those who most need to hear it.

Mal-Adjusted

devnull wrote: »

Society is completely broken in the UK and people are hugely divided and sooner or later someone is going to get killed and I'd be shocked if they are the only ones.

Er... somebody was killed.

I missed the start of the debate today but there seemed to be a lot odd mention of Jo cox. Can some one tell me who brought hey up and why?

J Mysterio

devnull wrote: »

Society is completely broken in the UK and people are hugely divided and sooner or later someone is going to get killed and I'd be shocked if they are the only ones. My own family situation gets worse by the week as I'm now banned from my uncles because of my "anti-democratic views" which basically means I'm kicked out of the family as far as he is concerned and my relationship with my father is fast heading the same way as I am not going to align myself with far right views and that will never change. Every time I speak to him I have his far right views rammed down my throat.

I cannot even start a conversation with my father without Brexit being mentioned and some comment about Boris Johnson delivering on the peoples will and how he is the best Prime Minister ever, and how I should stop trying to prevent the will of the people. My father is so obsessed with this that he doesn't want to talk about anything else. This is what Britain has become, a situation where delivering Brexit is more important than anything else, even family relationships.

I have seen a few furious arguments about Brexit where people are really starting to lose it and as has been said on twitter last night and today, yesterday things started to boil over and it's no surprise that an MP has been intimidated like this. This is going to be a wider problem for society in the UK soon and the police are going to have a tough time controlling it and it's all going to be Boris Johnson's fault. I'm seeing even mild mannered people on the remain side now also starting to get to the point where they are now furious and on the edge of boiling over.

As someone who has grown up in a mixture of the UK and Ireland what happens now is honestly the darkest time for me for a country that I used to admire but now I just hate it, I hate that my job means I have to work from there at times, I hate the level of debate and the breakdown of society and what it has done to personal and family relationships. It is so wrong and it rattles my moral bones very heavily and honestly if I was there I'm not sure how much longer I would be able to put up with it before it would drive me totally insane.

The United Kingdom is severely broken, perhaps beyond repair. Unfortunately there will be many victims of this and sadly unless this agenda is stopped soon, then people being the victim of attacks and being badly injured is inevitable and today's despicable act of intimidation to a passionate MP like Jess, is just going to be the start of far, far, far worse to come.

Sorry for the rant, but honestly, this is what it's like to have a connection with the UK and hate every single thing about how it is now and have to face the reality of how it impacts personal relationships and how Brexit has poisoned the whole country.

This is the country that the ERG and Boris and pals have created.

I genuinely feel for you, that's a horrible situation. I only have loose connections to the UK but found out that family friends (friends of parents) for 50+ years are in the Brexit camp and immediately lost a great deal of respect for them. I also have an elderly 2nd cousin who is same. It boggles the mind as I had always considered them good, intelligent people. This can/ does define people.

At it's core, Brexit is a nationalist myth and draws on people's heartstrings. It's heart over head for many of them where they just can't see logic, become blind to it. It's like the 'red mist' in some ways. They feel they as a nation are being impugned/ disrespected and so the only thing to do is fight against it. Just as we understand Brexit could destroy the UK, many of them feel that they must be 'free' now, or lose the 'chance'. Should that happen they will have allowed Britain to be shamed and humiliated. There's no reasoning with it.

It's civil war territory now, and we know all about that here: what it does to friends, family, communities, societies. People can lose all sense of perspective or control under these conditions and can do terrible things. There were a lot of nasty little murders during our civil war, and many after it was over too. There is a small stone cross just off the side of a bog road by my homeplace - it is for a young man who was tied and shot by a gang of men, two days after the war was officially over.

Boris Johnson is not one of these fanatics, however, which makes him even worse. He is a snide, calculating manipulator who is actively driving the language of conflict and division and helping tear the country apart for his own gain. Hard to comprehend it. UK is really at the tipping point.

PeadarCo

Tell me how wrote:

This after his brother resigned from his government.

It would interesting to be a fly on the wall at the next Johnson family get together.

On a more serious note it says how messed up at least sections of the UK population are. When you have a family war in public in a family that's used to politics in addition to what devnull has described on a less public level. The whole Brexit debate has appeared to have gone completely out of control.

J Mysterio

This is... Illuminating.

https://twitter.com/damocrat/status/1177276277344100352

Rjd2

The issue with the discourse in Brexit neither side will call out their sides shocking behavior. Cox was terrible yesterday and got criticised rightfully but Bary Sherman roaring all Gammon esque was terrible. He was playing to the crowd and that really set up what was a volatile day.

Then the reaction to Boris who was rightfully called out. David Lammy sulking about it a man who called the ERG Nazis, and Bercow a man who allegedly bullied a women into quitting her job telling MPS they need to do better. :rolleyes:

Its ****ed now really, Leavers have been called Nazis, fascists while remainers have been called remoaners, snowflakes etc.

The Lib Dem who made the proposal that they would vote for the Boris deal if they could take it to the country was a rare moment of common sense and non grand standing last night, obviously shot down instantly though.