Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Irish Praetorian

briany wrote: »

When O'Neill is on Dunphy's podcast, he can say what he likes virtually unopposed and think he's great, but I've only ever seen him struggle against anyone who is halfway competent in debate. The only person I've seen who can really make an eloquent case of no-deal Brexit and not really on the usual emotive soundbites is Mogg.

From what I've seen of Mogg's arguments he relies on the lack of a competent opposition also. Admittedly, he comes from the position of making a more conventional libertarian argument, which is more coherent than the usual arguments for Brexit, but still not sensible.

briany

Irish Praetorian wrote: »

From what I've seen of Mogg's arguments he relies on the lack of a competent opposition also. Admittedly, he comes from the position of making a more conventional libertarian argument, which is more coherent than the usual arguments for Brexit, but still not sensible.

What are some good examples of times when Mogg's been put up against people who've bested him in a Brexit debate?

jimmycrackcorm

At this juncture I think the Irish government, EU and our media should stop referring to the Irish border when it comes to Brexit.

Instead call it correctly the British border in Ireland. Why do we wish to view this issue as an Irish problem when it should be a stark reminder of a British failure in the first place that is blocking the brexiteers dreams.

maebee

GM228 wrote: »

This issue now is an investigation into an illegal act, that he broke the law and committed a criminal offence.

It's very often something out of left field that catches politicians out. Despite BoJo's impeachable behavior since he became PM, he may very well fall on his sword as a result of his "relationship" with an American business woman. Also wonder if Carrie will stick around ?

Trump has gotten away with appalling behavior since he came to office and now who would have thought that Ukraine may well be his undoing?

Two major world leaders may well be up that creek very soon.

maebee

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

At this juncture I think the Irish government, EU and our media should stop referring to the Irish border when it comes to Brexit.

Instead call it correctly the British border in Ireland. Why do we wish to view this issue as an Irish problem when it should be a stark reminder of a British failure in the first place that is blocking the brexiteers dreams.

I was surprised to hear a lady MP from Plaid Cymru on Sky News today referring to the British border in Ireland. I know that their party is anti-Brexit but I think it was the first time I ever heard a British MP refer to the border that way.

Robert McGrath

lawred2 wrote: »

EU always blinks at the last minute

Sorry! Sarcasm detector switched off this evening!

prawnsambo

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Barnier replies to a letter from Barclay:

https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1177654377303216129

I don't see a copy of Steve Barclay's letter that Barnier is replying to. For the sake of completeness, here it is. You could say it smacks of arrogance, but tbh, it looks a lot like desperation to me. Bizarre stuff either way.

lawred2

prawnsambo wrote: »

I don't see a copy of Steve Barclay's letter that Barnier is replying to. For the sake of completeness, here it is. You could say it smacks of arrogance, but tbh, it looks a lot like desperation to me. Bizarre stuff either way.

It's mind boggling to be honest. I wonder are there a few pennies dropping in Westminster at the moment.

GM228

prawnsambo wrote: »

I don't see a copy of Steve Barclay's letter that Barnier is replying to. For the sake of completeness, here it is. You could say it smacks of arrogance, but tbh, it looks a lot like desperation to me. Bizarre stuff either way.

It seems a part of that letter is redacted. Note the large gap between paragraphs and the continuation of the letter with "the" as opposed to "The", the start of that paragraph is missing.

FrancieBrady

prawnsambo wrote: »

I don't see a copy of Steve Barclay's letter that Barnier is replying to. For the sake of completeness, here it is. You could say it smacks of arrogance, but tbh, it looks a lot like desperation to me. Bizarre stuff either way.

What's going on at the bottom of it?

GM228

FrancieBrady wrote: »

What's going on at the bottom of it?

Perhaps some legal advice from Cox.

prawnsambo

GM228 wrote: »

It seems a part of that letter is redacted. Note the large gap between paragraphs and the continuation of the letter with "the" as opposed to "The", the start of that paragraph is missing.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

What's going on at the bottom of it?

Apologies folks, made a bit of a horlicks of clipping it and have now fixed it and edited my post to reflect this. The original is here.

Barnier's reply is here.

maynooth_rules

briany wrote: »

When O'Neill is on Dunphy's podcast, he can say what he likes virtually unopposed and think he's great, but I've only ever seen him struggle against anyone who is halfway competent in debate. The only person I've seen who can really make an eloquent case of no-deal Brexit and not really on the usual emotive soundbites is Mogg.

That podcast is bloody infuriating. He just spouts pure uneducated bile without any retaliation to any of the stupid points he makes from Dunphy. Makes me want to throw my phone at the wall

Tell me how

lawred2 wrote: »

It's mind boggling to be honest. I wonder are there a few pennies dropping in Westminster at the moment.

Doubt it. The die has been cast since Johnson became PM, he never put any great effort in to negotiating.

No Deal is what they want.

Alun

Full PDFs of both letters can be found here ...

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/brexit-preparedness-correspondence-with-the-eu-institutions

Other versions are probably badly done screenshots.

Edit: sorry, just saw prawnsambo's explanation of what went wrong.

hometruths

Johnsons/Cummings strategy has come off the rails big style, largely because I think they underestimated the ability of the opposition to work together, and now they seem to have doubled down on everything which does not look good!

Having said that I still think it's possible Johnson will get a deal done by 31st October, and I think the following has been his strategy all along, i.e I think much of what he have seen so far is design to get get MPs to back down and approve a deal, not to try and make the EU blink.

All he has to do is:

1) Get past Tory conference without having to discuss or defend any specifics of whatever deal he is proposing - he has been vague enough and secretive enough so far, that this wont be a problem.

2) Ask the EU to agree to the original WA deal with the customs border down the Irish Sea. The EU will say fine, but only if you can demonstrate how you think you'll get it past the HoC. He'll say sure, I have the largest party, all I have to do is win over those who voted down May's deal. Don't worry my 21 Tory rebels I expelled are voters for a deal.

3) Tell the DUP to back it or he will have a UI border poll in Northern Ireland, and tell them Cummings will be working his 'genius' to spin No Deal or UI, you decide. Under those circumstances DUP will back it.

4) A lot of the hardcore Brexiteer/ERG who voted down Mays deal are now on govt payroll, they will vote as whipped. The resolute Spartans - Mark Francois, hard man Steve Baker et al - will be told 'I expelled Churchill's grandson, and the Father of House from the party, you don't think I won't do the same to you?" No point in grandstanding to your constituents if we will deselect you for the imminent election." They will also vote as whipped.

5) Tell the EU he has his entire party and DUP on board, and presumably rebel Tories who voted for May's deal, and then say whilst this is technically a majority, it does not leave much margin for error in case some of them go rogue. Remind the EU that one of the main reason the May's vote lost 3 times was that Remainer MPs knew they in the absence of a deal there would be an extension.

Hence ask the EU to categorically rule out an extension in advance of the vote in the HoC, thereby ensuring the vote in HoC is binary WA or No Deal, rather than WA or extension. If needs be the EU can throw a member state a bung to veto it. Spain springs to mind. They can hold their hands up and say without a current formal government in place we cannot approve an extension, our hands are tied etc.

6) Johnson presents this to HoC and says it is this or No Deal, GE to follow, knock yourself out, either way I am happy.

It might sound nonsense, but the EU is nothing if not pragmatic, and the above offers them a way to resolve this mess, preserving the integrity of the single market, the GFA, and allows them to move on.

And far as Johnson is concerned, there has been much speculation on this thread as to whether he has some left field legal chicanery with which he can bypass the Benn bill. I think that is nonsense, the reason he is so confident that he will not have to ask for an extension is he believes he can persuade the EU to rule one out before the deadline.

GM228

prawnsambo wrote: »

Apologies folks, made a bit of a horlicks of clipping it and have now fixed it and edited my post to reflect this. The original is here.

Barnier's reply is here.

No breaking news of leaked non redacted letters so.

prawnsambo

GM228 wrote: »

No breaking news of leaked non redacted letters so.

No. But to be fair, there's juicy enough meat in them without that. Barclay trying on the "we can help each other if it all goes pear shaped, mini deals please?" and Barnier saying "eh, we're all prepared, look at these hundred or so documents from up to two years ago... PFO with your mini deals"

Adamcp898

The letter was a publicity stunt and, for want of a better word, "strategy."

They knew exactly what they were asking when wording it as a "plea" to compromise because they knew the exact type of response they would receive. And they got what they wanted.

"We will not enter into any negotiations with the United Kingdom"

That is what will be trotted out to the people now at every opportunity to rile up Brexit support - whether it's during debate in parliament on how to force Boris to ask for the extension/no confidence vote/general election campaigning/2nd referendum campaigning - that is what will be plastered on buses.

Poor Steve, going cap in hand, asking Michel for a little help - for the greater good, naturally - only to be slapped.

Dyr

schmittel wrote: »

Johnsons/Cummings strategy has come off the rails big style, largely because I think they underestimated the ability of the opposition to work together, and now they seem to have doubled down on everything which does not look good!

Having said that I still think it's possible Johnson will get a deal done by 31st October.
.

Then you don't understand their strategy. Cummings is willing to leave without a deal. That's what makes him playing chicken viable as a strategy

Strazdas

Bambi wrote: »

Then you don't understand their strategy. Cummings is willing to leave without a deal. That's what makes him playing chicken viable as a strategy

Johnson himself has no interest in Brexit and is not a Brexiteer. His sole priority is to win a GE.

prawnsambo

Adamcp898 wrote: »

The letter was a publicity stunt and, for want of a better word, "strategy."

They knew exactly what they were asking when wording it as a "plea" to compromise because they knew the exact type of response they would receive. And they got what they wanted.

"We will not enter into any negotiations with the United Kingdom"

That is what will be trotted out to the people now at every opportunity to rile up Brexit support - whether it's during debate in parliament on how to force Boris to ask for the extension/no confidence vote/general election campaigning/2nd referendum campaigning - that is what will be plastered on buses.

Poor Steve, going cap in hand, asking Michel for a little help - for the greater good, naturally - only to be slapped.

Still makes them look weak. All that talk about being prepared and here it is in writing that they're not and want to do mini-deals. And although I'm sure there are plenty who'll fall for it, many more will know that bilateral agreements with individual MS are impossible. And the real kicker about using no deal as a bargaining chip and here they are pleading for help if it happens.

hometruths

Bambi wrote: »

Then you don't understand their strategy. Cummings is willing to leave without a deal. That's what makes him playing chicken viable as a strategy

I understand their strategy perfectly well:

it is this or No Deal, GE to follow, knock yourself out, either way I am happy

And I agree it is viable strategy.

Adamcp898

prawnsambo wrote: »

Still makes them look weak. All that talk about being prepared and here it is in writing that they're not and want to do mini-deals. And although I'm sure there are plenty who'll fall for it, many more will know that bilateral agreements with individual MS are impossible. And the real kicker about using no deal as a bargaining chip and here they are pleading for help if it happens.

I'm talking purely in terms of the sound bite that could be taken from the reply (as much as a letter can produce a "sound-bite"). Politics has never been based on rational thinking, and Brexit is in another world again when it comes to a lack of reason. You only have to look at last night's Question Time for the latest in the series of entrenched "Us Vs. Them" Leave/Remain rhetoric, audience members lambasting Gina Miller with "and you're not helping" when it comes to why hasn't Brexit "been done."

Steve's letter can easily be painted as a magnanimous gesture that was swatted away by the arrogant EU to those who so wish to believe.

CelticRambler

Adamcp898 wrote: »

Steve's letter can easily be painted as a magnanimous gesture that was swatted away by the arrogant EU to those who so wish to believe.

That assumes that "those who so wish to believe" will read it and not wonder how the EU responded. Reading and critical thinking have not been much in evidence amongst that cohort ...

If (if) this is all part of a cunning Johnson-Cummings plan for winning an election, it is as likely to backfire spectacularly as the prorogation. Theresa May has already demonstrated how risky it is to muddle a GE campaign with a pseudo-referendum on Brexit. It's more likely than not that the Rebel Alliance will get their extension, somehow or other, and if they do, Johnson will fight that election on the basis of failure - failure to get a deal, failure to prevent an extension, failure to leave, failure to unite the Tories, failure fix anything that's wrong with the UK ...

That'll make him - and any hard Brexit Tory - an easy target in every pre-election debate, when wavering voters are makeing up their minds and during which nobody will be reading letters from one civil servant to another.

GM228

Letter sent from the GLA to Johnson today:-

https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1177676558795968512?s=19

Naggdefy

I have tuned out of Brexit for 2 weeks or so.

Just a quick question. Do people think the 31st October is an absolute deadline or will the UK government be able to produce some sort of fudge for the EU to enable them to get an extension?

Stacksofwacks

Naggdefy wrote: »

I have tuned out of Brexit for 2 weeks or so.

Just a quick question. Do people think the 31st October is an absolute deadline or will the UK government be able to produce some sort of fudge for the EU to enable them to get an extension?

Parliment has legislated that Boris has to ask for an extension if he cannot get a deal at the EU summit on October 17(which is very unlikely) so we are lookingat another extension and a UK election. EU will unlikely deny an extension but may demand a longer one til UK sorts its shyte out, and Boris will be unable to crash out without a deal as he would be breaking the law. If he tries any stunts I assume the UK Parliment would remove him

Naggdefy

Stacksofwacks wrote: »

Parliment has legislated that Boris has to ask for an extension if he cannot get a deal at the EU summit on October 17(which is very unlikely) so we are lookingat another extension and a UK election. EU will unlikely deny an extension but may demand a longer one til UK sorts its shyte out, and Boris will be unable to crash out without a deal as he would be breaking the law. If he tries any stunts I assume the UK Parliment would remove him

Thanks very much for the summation. Appreciated.

Rjd2

schmittel wrote: »

Johnsons/Cummings strategy has come off the rails big style, largely because I think they underestimated the ability of the opposition to work together, and now they seem to have doubled down on everything which does not look good!

Having said that I still think it's possible Johnson will get a deal done by 31st October, and I think the following has been his strategy all along, i.e I think much of what he have seen so far is design to get get MPs to back down and approve a deal, not to try and make the EU blink.

All he has to do is:

1) Get past Tory conference without having to discuss or defend any specifics of whatever deal he is proposing - he has been vague enough and secretive enough so far, that this wont be a problem.

2) Ask the EU to agree to the original WA deal with the customs border down the Irish Sea. The EU will say fine, but only if you can demonstrate how you think you'll get it past the HoC. He'll say sure, I have the largest party, all I have to do is win over those who voted down May's deal. Don't worry my 21 Tory rebels I expelled are voters for a deal.

3) Tell the DUP to back it or he will have a UI border poll in Northern Ireland, and tell them Cummings will be working his 'genius' to spin No Deal or UI, you decide. Under those circumstances DUP will back it.

4) A lot of the hardcore Brexiteer/ERG who voted down Mays deal are now on govt payroll, they will vote as whipped. The resolute Spartans - Mark Francois, hard man Steve Baker et al - will be told 'I expelled Churchill's grandson, and the Father of House from the party, you don't think I won't do the same to you?" No point in grandstanding to your constituents if we will deselect you for the imminent election." They will also vote as whipped.

5) Tell the EU he has his entire party and DUP on board, and presumably rebel Tories who voted for May's deal, and then say whilst this is technically a majority, it does not leave much margin for error in case some of them go rogue. Remind the EU that one of the main reason the May's vote lost 3 times was that Remainer MPs knew they in the absence of a deal there would be an extension.

Hence ask the EU to categorically rule out an extension in advance of the vote in the HoC, thereby ensuring the vote in HoC is binary WA or No Deal, rather than WA or extension. If needs be the EU can throw a member state a bung to veto it. Spain springs to mind. They can hold their hands up and say without a current formal government in place we cannot approve an extension, our hands are tied etc.

6) Johnson presents this to HoC and says it is this or No Deal, GE to follow, knock yourself out, either way I am happy.

It might sound nonsense, but the EU is nothing if not pragmatic, and the above offers them a way to resolve this mess, preserving the integrity of the single market, the GFA, and allows them to move on.

And far as Johnson is concerned, there has been much speculation on this thread as to whether he has some left field legal chicanery with which he can bypass the Benn bill. I think that is nonsense, the reason he is so confident that he will not have to ask for an extension is he believes he can persuade the EU to rule one out before the deadline.

Good post this.:)

However I don't believe their is any deal whatsoever in the works and I don't think he has the numbers no matter if he does.

The vocal remainer MPS of the Tory party will vote no, while I don't see him getting many non Tory/Dup voters,,,Skinner, Hoey, Stringer, Flint, Field....

Is that enough? And even then not totally sure of those 5:pac: