Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Inquitus

Rjd2 wrote: »

Good post this.:)

However I don't believe their is any deal whatsoever in the works and I don't think he has the numbers no matter if he does.

The vocal remainer MPS of the Tory party will vote no, while I don't see him getting many non Tory/Dup voters,,,Skinner, Hoey, Stringer, Flint, Field....

Is that enough? And even then not totally sure of those 5:pac:

He needs the ERG, the DUP, the Lab Leavers you mention and some of the Tories who got turfed out of the party. Personally, I don't think this i possible.

MrMusician18

schmittel wrote: »

Johnsons/Cummings strategy has come off the rails big style, largely because I think they underestimated the ability of the opposition to work together, and now they seem to have doubled down on everything which does not look good!

Having said that I still think it's possible Johnson will get a deal done by 31st October, and I think the following has been his strategy all along, i.e I think much of what he have seen so far is design to get get MPs to back down and approve a deal, not to try and make the EU blink.

All he has to do is:

1) Get past Tory conference without having to discuss or defend any specifics of whatever deal he is proposing - he has been vague enough and secretive enough so far, that this wont be a problem.

2) Ask the EU to agree to the original WA deal with the customs border down the Irish Sea. The EU will say fine, but only if you can demonstrate how you think you'll get it past the HoC. He'll say sure, I have the largest party, all I have to do is win over those who voted down May's deal. Don't worry my 21 Tory rebels I expelled are voters for a deal.

3) Tell the DUP to back it or he will have a UI border poll in Northern Ireland, and tell them Cummings will be working his 'genius' to spin No Deal or UI, you decide. Under those circumstances DUP will back it.

4) A lot of the hardcore Brexiteer/ERG who voted down Mays deal are now on govt payroll, they will vote as whipped. The resolute Spartans - Mark Francois, hard man Steve Baker et al - will be told 'I expelled Churchill's grandson, and the Father of House from the party, you don't think I won't do the same to you?" No point in grandstanding to your constituents if we will deselect you for the imminent election." They will also vote as whipped.

5) Tell the EU he has his entire party and DUP on board, and presumably rebel Tories who voted for May's deal, and then say whilst this is technically a majority, it does not leave much margin for error in case some of them go rogue. Remind the EU that one of the main reason the May's vote lost 3 times was that Remainer MPs knew they in the absence of a deal there would be an extension.

Hence ask the EU to categorically rule out an extension in advance of the vote in the HoC, thereby ensuring the vote in HoC is binary WA or No Deal, rather than WA or extension. If needs be the EU can throw a member state a bung to veto it. Spain springs to mind. They can hold their hands up and say without a current formal government in place we cannot approve an extension, our hands are tied etc.

6) Johnson presents this to HoC and says it is this or No Deal, GE to follow, knock yourself out, either way I am happy.

It might sound nonsense, but the EU is nothing if not pragmatic, and the above offers them a way to resolve this mess, preserving the integrity of the single market, the GFA, and allows them to move on.

And far as Johnson is concerned, there has been much speculation on this thread as to whether he has some left field legal chicanery with which he can bypass the Benn bill. I think that is nonsense, the reason he is so confident that he will not have to ask for an extension is he believes he can persuade the EU to rule one out before the deadline.

Doesn't he have to ask for an extension or bring back a deal?

Surely if he wants no deal he can bring back a deal from the EU that won't pass the Commons. He can then blame the Commons for no deal.

ILoveYourVibes

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Doesn't he have to ask for an extension or bring back a deal?

Surely if he wants no deal he can bring back a deal from the EU that won't pass the Commons. He can then blame the Commons for no deal.

As far as i know if he doesn't ask for for an extension formally nor come back with a deal the uk automatically exits the EU.

Rjd2

Inquitus wrote: »

He needs the ERG, the DUP, the Lab Leavers you mention and some of the Tories who got turfed out of the party. Personally, I don't think this i possible.

The ERG won't be an issue, even the most fanatical Brexiter must know its now or never for Brexit. Mogg and Patel in prominent positions was clever by Boris so they will spell it out to them.

Labour leavers he probably gets but their is very few of them. Their is some soft remainers in leave areas who did seem like they were open to voting to approve any deal such as Nandy, but the antagonistic approach by Johnson will have put them of especially the female ones.

They will be under immense pressure to reject any deal so its probably not worth the hassle of approving it. Labour knows they would struggle in an election afterwards if it gave Boris such a win.

Remainer Tories....

Some would vote for a deal like Clarke and Sewart, but unsure about the likes of Hammond, Greening, Grieve and Sandbach and tbh sure they are a few others who are probably more aligned with the Lib Dems brexit stance atm.


DUP?

I try not to think much about how the DUP think as its not good for the soul. Nothing with the DUP is ever easy so this most certainly won't be.


Best of luck Boris.:pac:


I think best case scenario for Boris is a narrow defeat for his bill and then he, Cummings and the right wing press can spin it as establishment v the Public.

axer

The problem with asking the EU to play ball with any possible Boris/Cummins plan is it is very clear that the UK government cannot be trusted in any way. They have lied left, right and center. Would the EU make statements that are not 100% true (since the EU probably would give an extension) to play along with such an untrustworthy partner knowing that the partner are likely to then throw them under a bus and possibly have an alternative motive for any request for "help"? Id hope the EU are smarter than that now. Fool me once...

woohoo!!!

They don't want a deal and never have. A brexit with benefits is a great sell but is not deliverable. This is why they're using pre-ref arguments about no deal being a possibility. 3 plus years of gaslighting with previous 40 years of anti EU guff. They see the dangers of the opposition getting organised and are throwing tantrums. They'd rather see the country burn.

An Ciarraioch

woohoo!!! wrote: »

They don't want a deal and never have. A brexit with benefits is a great sell but is not deliverable. This is why they're using pre-ref arguments about no deal being a possibility. 3 plus years of gaslighting with previous 40 years of anti EU guff. They see the dangers of the opposition getting organised and are throwing tantrums. They'd rather see the country burn.

And Tony Connelly also believes the non-papers make a deal practically impossible, let alone the Commons arithmetic:

https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2019/0927/1078626-brexit-supreme-court/

MrMusician18

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

As far as i know if he doesn't ask for for an extension formally nor come back with a deal the uk automatically exits the EU.

What happens though if he comes back with a deal that is unacceptable to the Commons?

hometruths

MrMusician18 wrote: »

What happens though if he comes back with a deal that is unacceptable to the Commons?

If Commons votes against a deal, he has to ask for an extension.

A Shropshire Lad

MrMusician18 wrote: »

What happens though if he comes back with a deal that is unacceptable to the Commons?

The same thing that happened last time with T May. The UK has to ask for an extension.


To be honest until there is an election in the UK nothing will be agreed. Even then, the likelyhood of a hung parliament is high. Its more likely we would have a non conservative government.



So, I can see a second refererendum within 6 months

murphaph

Any further extensions should be on our (EU) terms. They should align with EU budget cycles and be much longer so companies and people can plan more than 3 months into the future.

gooch2k9

murphaph wrote: »

Any further extensions should be on our (EU) terms. They should align with EU budget cycles and be much longer so companies and people can plan more than 3 months into the future.

Exactly, the uncertainty is a killer. In my own situation I'm thinking of buying a house but don't really know if I should if they're going to cripple the North with a stupid no-deal exit.

The UK have absolutely wasted the last extension, using it only to put in place a government that cannot be trusted. Macron was spot on last time. I hope this time it gets settled on the 17th/18th and not having extraordinary meetings just before the deadline. The EU have indulged the UK for far too long.

SeaBreezes

Just curious can anyone list what preparations have been made in Ireland for Brexit? I read about 2 new ferries and that aer lingus will carry belly cargo. Also that Lidl and aldi have moved warehouses here. Anyone know of other preparations?

Professor Moriarty

GM228 wrote: »

Letter sent from the GLA to Johnson today:-

https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1177676558795968512?s=19

This is actually a serious transgression. And it's very obvious they were lovers and she received favourable treatment as a result. Elegant lady of the night stuff. In normal times, it would make for screaming headlines. Of course, these are abnormal time so this will be lost in the Brexit snowstorm. Just waiting for Cummings to say Fake News.

woohoo!!!

Anecdotally I'm hearing some busineeses have very little to no work lined up for the next 2 months. Developers and investors are holding off the building projects. Warehouses are full to the brim.

All down to the uncertainty caused by Westminster. I think we're going to see a contraction in the economy and wider than the directly affected sectors.

Infini

murphaph wrote: »

Any further extensions should be on our (EU) terms. They should align with EU budget cycles and be much longer so companies and people can plan more than 3 months into the future.

One important condition sould be passing of anti tax evasion legisltation as agreed by the EU as well. That would burn quite a few like Moggles and co.

Infini

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Just curious can anyone list what preparations have been made in Ireland for Brexit? I read about 2 new ferries and that aer lingus will carry belly cargo. Also that Lidl and aldi have moved warehouses here. Anyone know of other preparations?

I'd suspect theres quite a few contingency plans on standby as well but because of the uncertainty some might not have pulled the trigger or are waiting to see wether an extention happens or not before comitting. That being said we won't be waiting till Oct 31st we'll know likely in 2 or 3 weeks wether it's gonna be an extention or car crash scenario.

The whole problem is the unknown really, Britain are in no shape for this and will be ruined by it, the only way this will end if Bojo is removed to be honest as the whole lot of the Brexitards had no problem breaking the law to win to begin with, they might not care with their mirage of a delusion so close now.

murphaph

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Just curious can anyone list what preparations have been made in Ireland for Brexit? I read about 2 new ferries and that aer lingus will carry belly cargo. Also that Lidl and aldi have moved warehouses here. Anyone know of other preparations?

Biggest one is the steady reduction in the proportion of Irish exports going to the UK. You can see it on German supermarket shelves as more and more Irish food is available here. That's the best way to prepare for Brexit really.

Leroy42

On Brexitcast, Katya finally delivered some reality to the team. I was most taken by simply how quiet the rest were whilst she gave them the reality, they normally talk all over each other but not this time.

To summarise, she basically said that the EU know the UK need an extension, there is no point negotiating since Johnson has no interest in compromise and time is simply too short and Johnson is focused on an election not a deal

ZX7R

woohoo!!! wrote: »

Anecdotally I'm hearing some busineeses have very little to no work lined up for the next 2 months. Developers and investors are holding off the building projects. Warehouses are full to the brim.

All down to the uncertainty caused by Westminster. I think we're going to see a contraction in the economy and wider than the directly affected sectors.

As far as development and building projects yes there is a large amount of holding off mainly down to the fact the tenders for a lot of projects have been pulled because British companies wone them.
There is a shocking number of retenders happening and a push for eu building construction companies to bid for them.

AllForIt

In the same week that Labour Party MP Paula Sherriff calls on the PM to use less inflammatory language such as 'surrender' (well known dog whistle call to rioting and of course deeply racist) , her colleague Tom Watson today says on Twitter that "The Torries have become a sinister extremist sect....". Well it's not like anyone would have expected to see consistency in the Labour party these days so I suppose one shouldn't really be in any way surprised.

https://twitter.com/tom_watson/status/1177641878939942913

It seems that if your on the right side of the Brexit argument you can just about say whatever you like and are exempt from feeling thoroughly ashamed of yourself.

greenfield21

Support for brexit is still there, no point in another extension now. Just cut them free and hope for the best.

Enzokk

AllForIt wrote: »

In the same week that Labour Party MP Paula Sherriff calls on the PM to use less inflammatory language such as 'surrender' (well known dog whistle call to rioting and of course deeply racist) , her colleague Tom Watson today says on Twitter that "The Torries have become a sinister extremist sect....". Well it's not like anyone would have expected to see consistency in the Labour party these days so I suppose one shouldn't really be in any way surprised.

https://twitter.com/tom_watson/status/1177641878939942913

It seems that if your on the right side of the Brexit argument you can just about say whatever you like and are exempt from feeling thoroughly ashamed of yourself.

Sinister - giving the impression that something harmful or evil is happening or will happen.

Extremist - a person who holds extreme political or religious views, especially one who advocates illegal, violent, or other extreme action.

Sect - a group of people with somewhat different religious beliefs (typically regarded as heretical) from those of a larger group to which they belong.

woejus

greenfield21 wrote: »

Support for brexit is still there, no point in another extension now. Just cut them free and hope for the best.

That's not really true is it?

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/brexit/all

gooch2k9

BBC link.

SNP saying VONC could take place next week. I hope that is the case. Delaying necessary action has been an ongoing feature of this whole debacle.

Hoping they can get an agreement made!

Dyr

I still remember the labour party having conniptions about the behaviour of the unwashed barbarians who supported Corbyn during the leadership heaves.
Truth is, this now a political tactic, smearing you're opponents by claiming they're extremists who are making you unsafe.

They've cried wolf so much that no one cares when the wolf actually shows up.

FrancieBrady

AllForIt wrote: »

In the same week that Labour Party MP Paula Sherriff calls on the PM to use less inflammatory language such as 'surrender' (well known dog whistle call to rioting and of course deeply racist) , her colleague Tom Watson today says on Twitter that "The Torries have become a sinister extremist sect....". Well it's not like anyone would have expected to see consistency in the Labour party these days so I suppose one shouldn't really be in any way surprised.

https://twitter.com/tom_watson/status/1177641878939942913

It seems that if your on the right side of the Brexit argument you can just about say whatever you like and are exempt from feeling thoroughly ashamed of yourself.

you are comparing that to belittling the assassination of an MP?

Really?

hometruths

AllForIt wrote: »

It seems that if your on the right side of the Brexit argument you can just about say whatever you like and are exempt from feeling thoroughly ashamed of yourself.

Agreed. In the aftermath of the toxic Commons debate Brendan Cox, husband of Jo Cox, wrote an intelligent commentary piece on the current divisive language. I was particularly impressed he of all people had the presence of mind to recognise:

Remainers are quick to notice irresponsible language when they are called ‘saboteurs’, traitors’ or ‘enemy of the people’, but some of these same people are less quick to recognise how unacceptable it is to call leavers ‘racists’, ‘fascists’ or supporters of a coup.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/brendan-cox-hate-filled-language-20291646

Rjd2

schmittel wrote: »

Agreed. In the aftermath of the toxic Commons debate Brendan Cox, husband of Jo Cox, wrote an intelligent commentary piece on the current divisive language. I was particularly impressed he of all people had the presence of mind to recognise:



https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/brendan-cox-hate-filled-language-20291646

Brave article, he got criticism from both side obviously on twitter because the site is a hellhole and nobody has any idea what nuance is.

fr336

I would be over the moon if this government was brought down by a confidence vote this week when they already think they've won and Corbyn is temporary PM. Then in opposition Boris makes such a shamble of things that we end up with a rainbow coalition of Labour and other opposition parties as the government. This is the only guaranteed route to blowing apart Johnson and Cumming's plans and it would be a delight to see the look on their faces. Time to call their bluff.