Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

prawnsambo

lawred2 wrote: »

is it?

while it gives them free reign in Parliament - it's not exactly a winner in the old PR stakes... they have the numbers to defeat the Tories when the Tories are actually present and sitting so why be seen (rightly or wrongly) to be pulling such a 'stunt' to achieve the same result?

I'd like to hear the SNP's reasoning really..

I'm not sure a VONC is a good idea anyway. It puts the pressure back on the opposition parties and takes it off Johnson. They have 14 days to come up with an alternative government with the brexit clock ticking louder and louder. Wouldn't be the best strategy imo. And they would be risking an election that would take things entirely out of their hands. I think Jo Maugham had come up with an alternaive to a VONC that gives them control without the danger of an election.

The danger from an election (for those unaware) is that the PM can set the date regardless of what parliament agrees.

Strazdas

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

David Gauke (one of the expelled rebels) published an article today suggesting that Brexit won't happen on October 31st and Johnson will get the blame, which is probably true.

At the bottom, he suggests: If all of the leaders of the Leave campaign had had the courage to set out the trade-offs, faced up to reality and argued for a position based on the real costs and benefits, we could have concluded this process much earlier by leaving with a deal.

I think this is wrong, and it is why we are facing either No Deal or No Brexit. If Leave had championed a Norway deal (as the Telegraph suggested they should before the referendum), everyone would have seen immediately that Brexit is worse than Remain, and they would never Brexit at all.

In fact possible every deal, when spelled out as costs and benefits, is worse than Remain. The only option left is No Deal.

None of them can admit that leaving with a deal is the only workable solution. You have literally millions of hard Brexiteers who think May's deal is too soft and who want to smash up the UK-EU relationship.

An Ciarraioch

This lengthy thread (starting with the tweet below) on the Alternative Arrangements Commission event at the Tory conference has to be read to be believed, if only to illustrate the yawning gap that would need to be bridged by Friday, at the latest:

https://twitter.com/ConHome/status/1178671507523985408

CelticRambler

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

This lengthy thread (starting with the tweet below) on the Alternative Arrangements Commission event at the Tory conference has to be read to be believed, if only to illustrate the yawning gap that would need to be bridged by Friday, at the latest:

https://twitter.com/ConHome/status/1178671507523985408

I don't know whether a :eek: or a :pac: is more appropriate. After all this time, they are still saying there are versions of their proposed technological solutions in action around the world, yet the only examples they ever cite are countries that are part of a customs unions and/or single market and have physical infrastructure on the border.

Well, I suppose if they keep flogging that dead horse long enough, it'll be nice and tender when they're looking for a bit of meat for the post-Brexit Sunday roast ...

A Dub in Glasgo

prawnsambo wrote: »

I'm not sure a VONC is a good idea anyway. It puts the pressure back on the opposition parties and takes it off Johnson. They have 14 days to come up with an alternative government with the brexit clock ticking louder and louder. Wouldn't be the best strategy imo. And they would be risking an election that would take things entirely out of their hands. I think Jo Maugham had come up with an alternaive to a VONC that gives them control without the danger of an election.

The danger from an election (for those unaware) is that the PM can set the date regardless of what parliament agrees.

An election cannot take place before 31 October in any event so not sure why the reluctance

devnull

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

An election cannot take place before 31 October in any event so not sure why the reluctance

Don't want Parliament to be dissolved obviously, if it is and Boris tries a trick they cannot react against it very easily. By keep government active they keep options open.

CelticRambler

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

An election cannot take place before 31 October in any event so not sure why the reluctance

The date can be changed if Parliament votes for such a change. It would only take one "perfect" storm for things suddenly and unexpectedly to fall in favour of Johnson and give him an early election, so why force the matter?

Every day from Nov 1 onwards increases the pressure and risk for Johnson. Either he "gets Brexit done" (I really hate that phrase :mad:) with a crash-out and reality will hit home as time passes; or he doesn't deliver on his "do or die" promise, and his base will pick the "die" option for him.

Conversely, the longer the Rebel Alliance give themselves before seeking a VoNC, the longer they have to agree on a suitable plan of action, acceptable to all, if they're successful in sidelining Johnson.

prawnsambo

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

An election cannot take place before 31 October in any event so not sure why the reluctance

Because parliament is dissolved 25 days before polling day. So Boris can get his prorogation by setting the polling day close enough to b-day as that 25 days allows.

J Mysterio

New poll! Bad results for government!

https://twitter.com/benatipsosmori/status/1178709695785312258

liamtech

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/30/opposition-parties-to-start-planning-for-national-unity-government

This article, coupled with the reports from Sky News and the Beeb news channel, would seem to suggest its the Lib Dems who are holding up the VONC - and the reason seems to be the purely political; they wont back Jeremy Corbyn as PM even for the few days (week at most) that would be necessary for him to become PM, get the extension until Jan 2020, and then call a general election.

Reports on the SNP seem to be fluctuating??

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/snp-pushes-for-a-compromise-pm-to-oust-boris-johnson-1-5013650

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-snp-labour-no-deal-jeremy-corbyn-nicola-sturgeon-election-a9122731.html

its all rather shocking and difficult to pin down who is the 'stick in the mud' on the remainer side

Kermit.de.frog

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

This lengthy thread (starting with the tweet below) on the Alternative Arrangements Commission event at the Tory conference has to be read to be believed, if only to illustrate the yawning gap that would need to be bridged by Friday, at the latest:

https://twitter.com/ConHome/status/1178671507523985408

https://twitter.com/ConHome/status/1178687541773553670

Or in the Irish sea...

liamtech

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/ConHome/status/1178687541773553670

Or in the Irish sea...

Putting it on us - Anglo irish relations are deteriorating further and further

jimmycrackcorm

Brexiteers sense of illogic is quite dining in its idiocy. I quote below from a blog that popped up on my radar.

Not understanding how parliment elects a government or even that MPs actually represent all people not just the 51percent...

They’re openly, shamelessly talking about forcing out Boris Johnson and creating a ‘government of national unity’ whose job would be to delay Brexit – again – and then hold a second referendum or a General Election. That the political class is casually chatting about taking such a drastic, emergency, anti-democratic measure as setting up an unelected government to stop Brexit is the most worrying sign of the times yet.

lawred2

J Mysterio wrote: »

New poll! Bad results for government!

https://twitter.com/benatipsosmori/status/1178709695785312258

Not as bad as May's. Hilarious. For all her faults, at least she was trying to get a deal. And she never tried to subvert parliament.

This current lot are a bunch of overt subversives and proud of it.

Mr.Nice Guy

The poll findings also show:

https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1178709437281918977

https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1178709442713587713

As bad as the current government is, the UK electorate seems to believe Corbyn would be worse.

Professor Moriarty

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

The poll findings also show:

https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1178709437281918977

https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1178709442713587713

As bad as the current government is, the UK electorate seems to believe Corbyn would be worse.

Lying, cheating, fraudulent, Old Etonian Johnson: 50%
Corbyn: 29%

I'm surprised Corbyn is polling so well.

A Dub in Glasgo

prawnsambo wrote: »

Because parliament is dissolved 25 days before polling day. So Boris can get his prorogation by setting the polling day close enough to b-day as that 25 days allows.

25 working days which is 5 weeks

maebee

CelticRambler wrote: »

Either he "gets Brexit done" (I really hate that phrase :mad:) with a crash-out and reality will hit home as time passes; or he doesn't deliver on his "do or die" promise, and his base will pick the "die" option for him.

I heard a lady MP on with either Pat Kenny or Sean O'Rourke this morning complaining that the wifi password in parliament has now been changed to "getbrexitdone". I didn't catch it all but I think she meant that it was now configured in such a way that every MP has to log in with this password. More childish pettiness from BoJO and Cummings.

Strazdas

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

Brexiteers sense of illogic is quite dining in its idiocy. I quote below from a blog that popped up on my radar.

Not understanding how parliment elects a government or even that MPs actually represent all people not just the 51percent...

This is one of the most shocking aspects of Brexit. The national government and the parliament is supposed to represent the interests of every single person in the country equally, no matter which way they voted in a GE or referendum or if they abstained.

The way that Johnson and the Tories refer to the 52% of 2016 as "the British people" is pretty disgusting given the divisions.

Professor Moriarty

maebee wrote: »

I heard a lady MP on with either Pat Kenny or Sean O'Rourke this morning complaining that the wifi password in parliament has now been changed to "getbrexitdone". I didn't catch it all but I think she meant that it was now configured in such a way that every MP has to log in with this password. More childish pettiness from BoJO and Cummings.

That's amazing. Surely such a decision should/would be made by a civil servant?

Professor Moriarty

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

That's amazing. Surely such a decision should/would be made by a civil servant?

Most likely, one with a sense of humour, but "getbrexitdone" can be taken both ways, do something to get it off the agenda and get back to all the other stuff that is piling up to be done.

An Ciarraioch

With all the focus on the backstop, turns out today is the centenary of partition:

https://twitter.com/131Weeks/status/1178634352751759360

Professor Moriarty

Deleted User wrote: »

Most likely, one with a sense of humour, but "getbrexitdone" can be taken both ways, do something to get it off the agenda and get back to all the other stuff that is piling up to be done.

I don't think it's funny and it's one of Cummings new three word slogans. It epitomises how 'The Mother of all Parliaments' has descended into an embarrassing and dangerous farce.

ambro25

schmittel wrote: »

Anybody know of any UK forums with decent reasoned Brexit debate?
Have had a browse but most of the ones I have seen are a bit shouty, on both sides.

I'd been posting on Sheffield Forum for years, and the Brexit megathread (on its 8th or 9th inception, just like here) was long a worthy discussion. Not on this thread's level, for sure, but a couple of semi-worthy Brexiteer posters, and mostly civil tone (very strict moderating in that respect).

I just gave it up last week. Ever since Johnson arrived in no.10, there's just nothing left from Brexiteers but handwaving and bad faith to rival Johnson's Ministers. Any commenting by the Remain side based on news, and it's an insta-dead cat drop with an Express or Daily Mail linky, followed by Schrödinger EU (fat cats globalist EU / socialist EU) haranguing, and then the same debating points looping around (due to intellectual dishonesty/said bad faith, I'll give you one guess about which side).

It's just not healthy or stimulating to frequent anymore. Very happy to let them wallow in their biased ignorance now, until they're turned into soylent green.

An Ciarraioch

ambro25 wrote: »

I'd been posting on Sheffield Forum for years, and the Brexit megathread (on its 8th or 9th inception, just like here) was long a worthy discussion. Not on this thread's level, for sure, but a couple of semi-worthy Brexiteer posters, and mostly civil tone (very strict moderating in that respect).

I just gave it up last week. Ever since Johnson arrived in no.10, there's just nothing left from Brexiteers but handwaving and bad faith to rival Johnson's Ministers. Any commenting by the Remain side based on news, and it's an insta-dead cat drop with an Express or Daily Mail linky, followed by Schrödinger EU (fat cats globalist EU / socialist EU) haranguing, and then the same debating points looping around (due to intellectual dishonesty/said bad faith, I'll give you one guess about which side).

It's just not healthy or stimulating to frequent anymore. Very happy to let them wallow in their biased ignorance now, until they're turned into soylent green.

As I've mentioned here before, both the Digital Spy politics forum and the EU Referendum blog tend to have fairly intelligent debates.

careless sherpa

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

As I've mentioned here before, both the Digital Spy politics forum and the EU Referendum blog tend to have fairly intelligent debates.

There is a Scottish one call pieandbovril. Is a football forum but the politics section is pretty funny and has a few threads devoted to Brexit. The politics forum on betfair has an amazing amount of anti irish bile. Must not be moderated at all given the xenophobic utterings. Definitely one to avoid

J Mysterio

lol, facepalm etc.

"Customs Centres" 5-10 miles from the border.

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1178760377678618626Genius.

Imreoir2

Ok, they are seriously just trolling now. UK proposes replacing the backstop with the thing the backstop is supposed to prevent.

"UK proposes customs posts on both sides of border in bid to replace backstop"

MrMusician18

This is it so. He will be ousted tomorrow and replaced with a national Government.

This is part of the plan to force this election.

Strazdas

J Mysterio wrote: »

lol, facepalm etc.

"Customs Centres" 5-10 miles from the border.

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1178760377678618626Genius.

Tony said on the 9pm News this could well be the actual Johnson plan for the border.