Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Zubeneschamali

Quantum Erasure wrote: »

theres going to have to be some compromise regarding the border on the EU side. If not then what? no deal exit, no further talks about any future deals until NI is effectively 'given back' to Ireland / the EU?

Exactly. As one of the NI business groups above said, this proposal is a Hard Border the same as No Deal. But if the UK get agreement on a hard border plus a WA with a transition period into a future Free Trade Deal, then the Hard Border is here to stay.


No - if they want a hard border, now or in a year after an extension, election and another referendum, then they get No Deal. Let's see how they feel about the border after 6 months of deep recession.

prunudo

Johnson on BBC breakfast now, how did such a spoofer get so far in life. The interviewer isn't letting him off the hook either. Will try and find a link to it.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49890199

https://twitter.com/BBCBreakfast/status/1178930933120032768?s=09

Unfortunately it seems the Twitter video editor put up a more favourable clip.

FrancieBrady

prunudo wrote: »

Johnson on BBC breakfast now, how did such a spoofer get so far in life. The interviewer isn't letting him off the hook either. Will try and find a link to it.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49890199

https://twitter.com/BBCBreakfast/status/1178930933120032768?s=09

Unfortunately it seems the Twitter video editor put up a more favourable clip.

Heard a bit of him on the news there but not the full clip/report.

Is he now saying it isn't the plan?

Nody

Peregrinus wrote: »

I mean, some Brexiters are astonishingly, incredibly, mind-bogglingly stupid. But they simply cannot be that stupid.

Occam's razor in play; if they listen to their peers, get the telegraph headlines etc. of EU running scared and been told by their Eton fellows that this is really a working solution and the specialists will sort out the details...

Quantum Erasure wrote: »

i read somewhere, probably on reddit, that the original Article 50 should have been written to include a 10 year negotiation/transition period, which looking at it now would probably be a more desirable (or at least likely) outcome to achieve a deal

It was written with two years specifically to a) force the country to really negotiate hard and honestly, b) give more power to EU in the negotiation simply by the fact said country will not have much time to get other deals prepared and c) minimize the duration of disruption for EU (see UKIP party for example). It's not written to benefit the leaving country and honestly even with ten years all we'd get is 9.5 years of posturing from UK anyway.

Christy42

So that plan to avoid a hard border reads very much like a hard border. Am I wrong?

joe40

Why would Britain put in a proposal, and now Boris Johnson say, this morning, it is not our real proposal, we have something else but we're not saying what it is.
It is beyond a joke.

dePeatrick

joe40 wrote: »

Why would Britain put in a proposal, and now Boris Johnson say, this morning, it is not our real proposal, we have something else but we're not saying what it is.
It is beyond a joke.

They are just flying kites to see what reaction they get, expect at least another one of them.

Strazdas

joe40 wrote: »

Why would Britain put in a proposal, and now Boris Johnson say, this morning, it is not our real proposal, we have something else but we're not saying what it is.
It is beyond a joke.

They're making it up as they go along. Apparently the leaked story was correct....if he's denying that now, it means he's switched to some other bonkers idea.

El Weirdo

joe40 wrote: »

Why would Britain put in a proposal, and now Boris Johnson say, this morning, it is not our real proposal, we have something else but we're not saying what it is.
It is beyond a joke.

Because he is a liar. Plain and simple.

Enzokk

I think this tweet below is some mistake,

https://twitter.com/ThairShaikh/status/1178770147177373696?s=20

It couldn't possibly be that the UK will once again for the 4th or 5th time try and bypass the EU negotiators to try and get a deal, would they?

As for the plans, seems like their plans for no-border is like our plans for no-deal. It makes you think that they want no-deal,

https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1178914767890796544?s=20

https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1178914772189880320?s=20

We will have to wait and see what Johnson says in his speech tomorrow. Does this leak represent where they are heading, or has Cummings played a blinder and had everyone looking to the left and he is working the solution to the right? I think I know where it is and it is not with the genius who has had to break the law and ignore parliament being smarter than everyone else.

Hermy

dePeatrick wrote: »

Now that's a very good point, the original which was written by Kier Starmer iirc and some others was written with Hungary and others East European countries in mind.

It was actually Lord Kerr who drafted Article 50.

Seth Brundle

Boris looks for EU help in leaving the EU...
https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1178889061886496768


As for Boris's friendship with Jennifer Arcuri...
https://twitter.com/abcpoppins/status/1178934464061345792

dePeatrick

Hermy wrote: »

It was actually Lord Kerr who drafted Article 50.

You're absolutely right, corrected.

CelticRambler

Quantum Erasure wrote: »

i read somewhere, probably on reddit, that the original Article 50 should have been written to include a 10 year negotiation/transition period, which looking at it now would probably be a more desirable (or at least likely) outcome to achieve a deal

The negotiation/transition period is written into the Withdrawal Agreement - we haven't even started on the "deal" phase yet. Two years would have been plenty of time for any normal government to agree the T&Cs of a starting point, but the ERG/DUP/Theresa May alliance decided that they were going to make inherently contradictory promises and demands.

On the bright side, at least any other country thinking about hitting the Art.50 switch in the future will know that they'd better have a realistic plan in place before locking themselves into the two-year countdown.

Russman

Quantum Erasure wrote: »

theres going to have to be some compromise regarding the border on the EU side.

I really don't think there will be, although predicting anything at this stage is like flipping a coin. The integrity of the single market is far, far more important to the EU (incl Ireland) than the potential consequences of a no-deal exit.
Plus what compromise could they make ? Checks in France or Waterford would effectively eject Ireland from the SM which is obviously a big no, no.

CelticRambler

Strazdas wrote: »

Apparently the leaked story was correct....if he's denying that now, it means he's switched to some other bonkers idea.

Perhaps he's learnt from his Leave/Remain journalism adventure and written two different, contradictory plans? :pac:

murphaph

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Someone mentioned earlier in thread (or in earlier versions of) that Boris is doing silly things specifically to bury bad articles about himself

Nice find. He could have just started talking about his model bus "hobby" again to give google a bum steer. Anyone who doesn't think words are chosen for their impact in search engines is naive. It's almost too easy now that he is PM and everything he says will be reported immediately and indexed by google.

LeinsterDub

Enzokk wrote: »

We will have to wait and see what Johnson says in his speech tomorrow. Does this leak represent where they are heading, or has Cummings played a blinder and had everyone looking to the left and he is working the solution to the right? I think I know where it is and it is not with the genius who has had to break the law and ignore parliament being smarter than everyone else.

There is literally no evidence for this Cummings is a genius playing 3D chess . He "won" one referendum before that he was considered a madman and since Johnson has come to power he and Johnson have constantly been beaten

murphaph

LeinsterDub wrote: »

There is literally no evidence for this Cummings is a genius playing 3D chess . He "won" one referendum before that he was considered a madman and since Johnson has come to power he and Johnson have constantly been beaten

Cummings is good at the old social media manipulation lark but that's not enough to run an actual country.

Christy42

LeinsterDub wrote: »

There is literally no evidence for this Cummings is a genius playing 3D chess . He "won" one referendum before that he was considered a madman and since Johnson has come to power he and Johnson have constantly been beaten

They are trying to convince a country to tank itself and any trade or economic leverage it has. It is a pretty tough sell. I think he has played this pretty well. No deal is still the de facto choice with less than a month to go.

I mean he is also a madman, I fully believe he is aware of what his actions will do to the UK but he is getting results for his financial backers.

Christy42

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49890199

For months we had people telling us the UK was promising to not put up a hard border and the hard border would be all the fault of the EU. Repeatedly even when all the massive flaws in the argument where pointed out.

Now we have the statement that the British government were lying all this time (shock horror). Where are they now. It is becoming increasingly clearer that we will have a hard border. This is what the UK has proposed as an alternative (avoid a hard border by agreeing to a hard border?!?). The blame for the border will lie solely at the feet of the UK.

robinph

Christy42 wrote: »

They are trying to convince a country to tank itself and any trade or economic leverage it has. It is a pretty tough sell. I think he has played this pretty well. No deal is still the de facto choice with less than a month to go.

I mean he is also a madman, I fully believe he is aware of what his actions will do to the UK but he is getting results for his financial backers.

I'm not sure if there is a level of cash someone could pay me to persuade me to destroy my country, or someone elses country, for them. It's got to be more madman than money as the motivation. The money is obviously a bonus for them, but they have to actually believe in the cause as well.

Zubeneschamali

robinph wrote: »

The money is obviously a bonus for them, but they have to actually believe in the cause as well.

Everyone knows Johnson doesn't believe in the cause, he famously wrote both a Leave and Remain column for the Telegraph before deciding at the last minute to go with Leave. This was simply because Cameron was for Remain, so Boris though being on the Leave side gave him a better chance at the Tory leadership and #10.

Penn

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Everyone knows Johnson doesn't believe in the cause, he famously wrote both a Leave and Remain column for the Telegraph before deciding at the last minute to go with Leave. This was simply because Cameron was for Remain, so Boris though being on the Leave side gave him a better chance at the Tory leadership and #10.

Absolutely. The only cause Boris has likely ever truly believed in is that he deserved to be Prime Minister.

And now he deserves the mess he helped create that got him there.

Imreoir2

Quantum Erasure wrote: »

theres going to have to be some compromise regarding the border on the EU side. If not then what? no deal exit, no further talks about any future deals until NI is effectively 'given back' to Ireland / the EU?

There has already been quite a lot of compromise from the EU. Do you think any serious negiotiatior would consider further compromise with a government that has already gone back on its own word, is threathning to go back on even more commitments it made, and clearly is not in a position to get a deal ratified regardless of what compromises are offered?

I can't think of any reason to reward that kind of behaviour. There is a deal on the table, the UK can choose to ratify it or crash out with no deal. The choice is theirs to make.

robindch

LeinsterDub wrote: »

I'd dread to think what this country would be like without the EU

Probably still tied to UK Sterling, probably still doing 50% of our trade with the UK, probably still strongly under the influence of the UK. Probably screwed.

robindch

Former Prime Minister of Australia, Julia Gillard, weighs in with her thoughts about the an Australian "deal' with the the UK, post-Brexit:

https://twitter.com/Femi_Sorry/status/1178685195152711680

20silkcut

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Everyone knows Johnson doesn't believe in the cause, he famously wrote both a Leave and Remain column for the Telegraph before deciding at the last minute to go with Leave. This was simply because Cameron was for Remain, so Boris though being on the Leave side gave him a better chance at the Tory leadership and #10.

Boris was writing anti EU articles back nearly to the time of thatcher. I believe he was always anti EU. He just waited to see what way the wind was blowing before becoming a full brexiteer.

Zubeneschamali

20silkcut wrote: »

Boris was writing anti EU articles back nearly to the time of thatcher. I believe he was always anti EU.

That was just a handy job at the Telegraph. Sit in Brussels and make up nonsensical anti-EU stories, easy peasy.

But before the referendum, he called many times for the UK to stay in the Single Market. Have a read of this 2003 speech in Hansard, which begins:

Mr. Boris Johnson (Henley) It is hard to think of a measure that the Government could have brought to the House that I could support more unreservedly and with greater pleasure than this Bill to expand the European Union. To sum up my response, I would merely say, "And about time too."

Water John

That's some burn from Gillard.