Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Infini

Tell me how wrote: »

I feel very confident with the idea of a phonecall (not that it is being suggested) between Michel Barnier and Simon Coveney ahead of Barnier meeting Barclay.

Both Coveney and Barnier will A, have been expecting this and B, will know how to deal with it.

We warned Europe of the "Brits at it again" shenanigans long before this came along. We warned them to expect this because they did it in the past when they wanted their own way.

Whats laughable is that even if they cause trouble here with their carryon they forget we're part of a continental wide organisation and likely France would have a word or 2 to say about that *cough* Slowcustomstime *cough*. They're so deluded thinking they could push us around that they forget we have ways of hitting back that will hurt them more. Its not us that want this but we arent gonna sit around and just take this carryon so long as the pseudotories are busy wrecking the place

Professor Moriarty

Strazdas wrote: »

What do they mean by 'disastrous'? Nearly every economic forecast says No Deal would be nothing remotely like 2008-09 (the crash cost the state something like €60bn and led to 15% unemployment).

It will be very hard, no doubt. But they are lying about Ireland to EU countries. Or maybe even implicitly threatening Ireland. What would you expect from a pig but a grunt.

Strazdas

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It will be very hard, no doubt. But they are lying about Ireland to EU countries. Or maybe even implicitly threatening Ireland. What would you expect from a pig but a grunt.

It would be a setback but economists think Ireland could quickly recover or begin to recover, say within 12 months....it would be nothing like the financial crash.

The UK are behaving disgustingly. That's no way to treat a close friend and ally.

lawred2

Strazdas wrote: »

It would be a setback but economists think Ireland could quickly recover or begin to recover, say within 12 months....it would be nothing like the financial crash.

The UK are behaving disgustingly. That's no way to treat a close friend and ally.

Close friend and Ally?

Tony Blair's labour government apart, when has Ireland been truly treated like a close friend and Ally by the UK?

Sierra Oscar

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

So, behind Ireland's back, the Tories have been hyping up the disastrous consequences for their nearest and dearest neighbour if the UK doesn't get its way. What would you expect from a donkey but a kick.

It really does seem that there is a complete operational failure on behalf of the UK negotiation team at this stage. The UK Government are completely misinterpreting the EU position if they genuinely are solely relying on other EU states to pressure Ireland into crumbling. I just don't see it happening and if that's all the UK has to offer then the prospect of a deal being struck is zero.

Capt'n Midnight

fash wrote: »

twitter.com/DPhinnemore/status/1175832293363126273
More "project fear for you but not for me".

The last CSO report had exports to the UK down to 8%. It used to be 9%*.

That 8% includes stuff like Viagra and Botox that can't be bought anywere else. A good few Irish brands would fit here too.

It includes stuff like grass fed beef and lamb that are a direct replacement for UK products blocked by EU tariffs.

It includes things like cheddar cheese where there's a new factory to produce European cheeses opposite Waterford can take 80% of the tonnage of previous UK cheddar exports to the UK.

A hard Brexit will hurt but not enough to give in to the UK.
Besides it would be political suicide to be seen to capitulate over the North


* maybe a statistical or seasonal variation. But I think not.

Strazdas

lawred2 wrote: »

Close friend and Ally?

Tony Blair's labour government apart, when has Ireland been truly treated like a close friend and Ally by the UK?

There had been major cooperation prior to June 2016, especially at EU level. We don't get to hear much about it but it was going on in the background (even the GFA contains a lot about the UK - Ire relationship).

bilston

FrankPoll. wrote: »

I think the DUP will lose mainstream voters back to the UUP if brexit goes wrong

If the DUP backs down some of their voters might go the other way to the TUV.

Maybe it's just me, but there seems to be more Donaldson and less Wilson and Dodds talking to the media recently. Maybe that's a sign of a shift within the DUP to a softer approach to Brexit. If it is they won't bring all their supporters with them.

listermint

bilston wrote: »

If the DUP backs down some of their voters might go the other way to the TUV.

Maybe it's just me, but there seems to be more Donaldson and less Wilson and Dodds talking to the media recently. Maybe that's a sign of a shift within the DUP to a softer approach to Brexit. If it is they won't bring all their supporters with them.

Doubt it. It'll be a minority.

lawred2

Strazdas wrote: »

There had been major cooperation prior to June 2016, especially at EU level. We don't get to hear much about it but it was going on in the background (even the GFA contains a lot about the UK - Ire relationship).

Interests aligned temporarily. Ultimately history betrays where Ireland truly stands where the UK is concerned. This attitude to Ireland has always existed hidden away in the shadows. It doesn't stay hidden for too long.

20silkcut

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

It really does seem that there is a complete operational failure on behalf of the UK negotiation team at this stage. The UK Government are completely misinterpreting the EU position if they genuinely are solely relying on other EU states to pressure Ireland into crumbling. I just don't see it happening and if that's all the UK has to offer then the prospect of a deal being struck is zero.

Are they nuts do they think this kind of threatening rhetoric is going to work against us. With all the history between us??

J Mysterio

This Channel 4 documentary is illuminating, particularly as regards this bastard Crispin Odey.

https://twitter.com/fascinatorfun/status/1175812415482728449

Water John

Well it seems likely, they will be all heading back to Parliament, with the Court finding against the Govn't on Prorogation.
https://www.theguardian.com/law/2019/sep/22/supreme-court-verdict-boris-johnson-prorogation

Infini

J Mysterio wrote: »

This Channel 4 documentary is illuminating, particularly as regards this bastard Crispin Odey.

https://twitter.com/fascinatorfun/status/1175812415482728449

Its bastards like that who are responsible for all this carryon to be fair as noted in a previous post many of those are of hedge fund or financial backrounds who are attempting to cause a wreck for their own monetary benefit.

Its a pity that in the event of a crash out the EU cant go after these types and sieze their assets.

Spanish Eyes

Water John wrote: »

Well it seems likely, they will be all heading back to Parliament, with the Court finding against the Govn't on Prorogation.
https://www.theguardian.com/law/2019/sep/22/supreme-court-verdict-boris-johnson-prorogation

Wonder what the TeleToryGraph is saying though. No one knows, unless there are leaks from the Supreme Court judges. It is all to play for.

Anyway, even if the ruling is that this prorogation was unlawful, I doubt the current Administration will care much. They appear to be on a mission of destruction now.

I think UK is now punch drunk. Nothing happened when Johnson ejected Tory stalwarts. Nothing happened when he talks rubbish. Nothing actually appears to have any consequences now IMO.

Robert McGrath

Jesus. I can’t believe the British are doing it again. Heavy handed tactics by the British during the Troubles were the IRA’s greatest recruitment tool. This behaviour from the current British government is stirring previously dormant nationalist feelings in moderates in the ROI that would never dream of voting SF.

As somebody on Twitter put it succinctly:

“And with that, the last three people in Ireland not already born again Fenians finally cast an eye thatchwards”

Imreoir2

Strazdas wrote: »

That's no way to treat a close friend and ally.

I really don't like this terminology, friendship aside, we are not and have never been an ally of the UK. We are a non-aligned country, we are not allies of the UK in NATO or any other alliance.

J Mysterio

Sophie Ridge (Sky) is actually tweeting this like it is news.

https://twitter.com/SophyRidgeSky/status/1175676131175030784

This was pointed out three years ago. Its the fundamental reason we have the backstop ffs.

SeaBreezes

J Mysterio wrote: »

This Channel 4 documentary is illuminating, particularly as regards this bastard Crispin Odey.

https://twitter.com/fascinatorfun/status/1175812415482728449

Depresses the hell out of me there are so few retweets of that.

Everybody knows the 1% are deliberately crashing the economy to avoid paying tax on the billions they already own and they make another 8 billion on vulnerable people's misery when sterling tanks.

Now they need a war to distract while the clock is counting down. What's the betting the UK will go to war before October 31st if parliament go back? To keep the house distracted?

We are watching a stand off between what money can buy (and that includes the monarchy who have Cayman Island accounts to protect as well) and the actual democratic process in the UK.

You would hope the people win, but so far it seems the money is winning.

boggerman1

Just watching that documentary on the Tories.a horrible shower to put it nicely.the headbangers are really a cult .and Nicky Morgan is spineless

Cork Boy 53

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Depresses the hell out of me there are so few retweets of that.

Everybody knows the 1% are deliberately crashing the economy to avoid paying tax on the billions they already own and they make another 8 billion on vulnerable people's misery when sterling tanks.

Now they need a war to distract while the clock is counting down. What's the betting the UK will go to war before October 31st if parliament go back? To keep the house distracted?

We are watching a stand off between what money can buy (and that includes the monarchy who have Cayman Island accounts to protect as well) and the actual democratic process in the UK.

You would hope the people win, but so far it seems the money is winning.

A war before Brexit deadline day? Against who and what reason would be given for such an act?

FrankPoll.

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

A war before Brexit deadline day? Against who and what reason would be given for such an act?

Wmds

45 mins from a missile strike

They just make sh1t up

Harry Palmr

J Mysterio wrote: »

Sophie Ridge (Sky) is actually tweeting this like it is news.

https://twitter.com/SophyRidgeSky/status/1175676131175030784

This was pointed out three years ago. Its the fundamental reason we have the backstop ffs.

Sometimes journalists ask "stupid" questions to elicit a clear policy position for the dozy public, something being known for three years means it's long since drifted off into the stupefying ether of the UK's domestic politics where Ireland is seen little and heard even less.

Strazdas

Imreoir2 wrote: »

I really don't like this terminology, friendship aside, we are not and have never been an ally of the UK. We are a non-aligned country, we are not allies of the UK in NATO or any other alliance.

Ally....partner....we're splitting hairs here. The GFA has a whole section on promoting UK - Ireland relations. The close links between the two countries are obvious : the CTA, the two countries shared the same currency for 50 years, citizens can vote in the other's general elections etc

Imreoir2

Strazdas wrote: »

Ally....partner....we're splitting hairs here. The GFA has a whole section on promoting UK - Ireland relations. The close links between the two countries are obvious : the CTA, the two countries shared the same currency for 50 years, citizens can vote in the other's general elections etc

Yes we have close links, but we are specifically not allies, and more broadly the trend in Irish/British relations is one of increasing divergance over time.

Strazdas

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Yes we have close links, but we are specifically not allies, and more broadly the trend in Irish/British relations is one of increasing divergance over time.

I would argue they were moving closer together in the period 2011-16 : the Queen's visit, the President's state visit to the UK three years later. UK / Irish trade lessening over time is a separate matter.

The referendum result threw a massive spanner in the works and has soured everything.

Peregrinus

Deleted User wrote: »

From the previous thread:

It's easy to forget that 5 years ago, there was no hope of ever leaving the EU in the minds of many, that's why they didn't think about it.
Now they've been given hope, a referendum and a favorable result that shows a majority (of voters) want to leave, now they want it to happen.

That is not "brainwashing", it's a suppressed aspiration that now has a real possibility of happening. So it's foremost in their minds and they want it done.

Well, possibly. But very few of them seem to have given any thought to how it might be done, and very few seem at all bothered by the fact that the opportunity to do it is being squandered by the shambolic incompetence of the political leadership of the Brexit movement.

It seems to that the Brexit movement is still largely fuelled by wishful thinking, rather than an engagement with reality. We probably all engage in a bit of wishful thinking when all other avenues are closed to us, and we find it consoling. But to prefer wishful thinking when you actually have a real chance to achieve something you claim to want, to sabotage your own position in this way, is just . . . well, a bit disturbing.

Peregrinus

Strazdas wrote: »

I would argue they were moving closer together in the period 2011-16 : the Queen's visit, the President's state visit to the UK three years later. UK / Irish trade lessening over time is a separate matter.

I wouldn't see those things as evidence of the UK and Ireland "moving together", but as evidence of them normalising their relationship as independent sovereign states.

Strazdas wrote: »

The referendum result threw a massive spanner in the works and has soured everything.

Yes.

fash

fash wrote: »

https://twitter.com/DPhinnemore/status/1175832293363126273
More "project fear for you but not for me".

That tweet has aroused more anti-British sentiment in me than living on the border for twenty years surrounded by two families full of Ra heads did. Didn't expect to ever feel this way.

Giving them the option to revoke unilaterally was a mistake.

prunudo

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

A war before Brexit deadline day? Against who and what reason would be given for such an act?

It's already started to play out, not war but military action.
http://news.sky.com/story/saudi-arabia-drone-attacks-johnson-refuses-to-rule-out-military-action-11817540