Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

CelticRambler

prawnsambo wrote: »

Johnson's government is in a minority and can basically be a glove puppet for parliament. He has to ask how high when they say jump and it's wonderful to think that the Tories are reduced to this. So he'll be sent off to Brussels to get an extension or he'll go to jail. He'll be told when to have an election and he'll be told when to dissolve parliament. What do they need a GNU for?

Because they can make him jump and twitch, but if they force an election, there's a risk that Johnson&Co will end up back in the HoC on the government benches. Better force Johnson out now, in the short term, put the election on hold for six months, get an everyone-but-Tories government in place to re-draw the Tory red lines and (finally) have a mature discussion with the EU and the electorate about the future of Brexit.

Zubeneschamali

briany wrote: »

She said that it would be worth reminding the EU in negotiations that in the event of a no-deal, Ireland's current supply chains would be disrupted, which is true.

She wasn't just saying that there would be disruption, which would be true.

She wanted to use the threat of disruption to bully Ireland into dropping the backstop, quite different.

prawnsambo

farmchoice wrote: »

well they have presented themselves as the anti brexit party who will do anything to save Britain from a disastrous crash out brexit and their recent increase in support seems to be a direct result of this.
they now have the opportunity to support a GNU (government of national unity) to unseat boris and place an alternative in situ to agree an extension and take matters forward to an election in an orderly manner.
corbyn as the leader of the main opposition party is on a democratic basis if nothing else the most entitled.
the lib dems have refused to countenance this, even discuss it and this is very much a party political position to take, so after all this talk of the opposition coming together to stop a crash out when it came to it they were frightened of losing potential votes more then they were committed to stopping Johnson.

Well somebody should tell Corbyn this. Because he's apparently insisting that it be a Labour 'caretaker' government with support from the other parties and not a GNU.

Labour swiftly dismissed the idea. Its officials said that as leader of the main opposition party, Corbyn was the only clear candidate. They also rejected the idea of a government of national unity, calling instead for a “strictly time-limited caretaker administration” that would be formed by Labour and supported by other opposition parties.

Mr.Nice Guy

Haven't seen any coverage of this exchange on Twitter between loyalist blogger/mischief-maker Jamie Bryson and the DUP's Jeffrey Donaldson.

https://twitter.com/J_Donaldson_MP/status/1178445297183334401

For context, Bryson's unhappy with the DUP for suggesting they'd be up for a time-limited backstop. Donaldson replies this has been the party position for a year now and links to an article with Nigel Dodds saying a time limited backstop is no longer then a backstop. Bryson then says:

"The purpose of that intervention was to make the backstop “inoperable”, according to Nigel Dodds. So the logic of your position now is basically that the notion of supporting a time limited backstop is just a strategic move to actually break the backstop. Yes?"

Donaldson's reply: "yes".

So here we have a senior figure from the DUP effectively admitting that the party aren't serious with their ideas to break the impasse.

Most people could have figured that out anyway, but strange to see it be acknowledged in public.

Professor Moriarty

briany wrote: »

I'll preface this by saying that I don't think Patel is a very nice person, and that she strikes me as the mascot of the Conservatives' lurch to the right. However, I don't remember her saying that the UK should starve Ireland. I know what quote people are getting that from, but it's been subjected to some Chinese whispers.

She said that it would be worth reminding the EU in negotiations that in the event of a no-deal, Ireland's current supply chains would be disrupted, which is true. The hurt would come from the UK simply observing its newfound trading relationship with the EU, not from going above and beyond.

I only point this out because if we let ourselves go with the hyperbole, we become as bad as the Brexiteers.

Just a point of order. In response to a leaked paper, Patel said the following:

“This paper appears to show the government were well aware Ireland will face significant issues in a no-deal scenario. Why hasn’t this point been pressed home during negotiations? There is still time to go back to Brussels and get a better deal.”

The "significant issues" in the paper were that Ireland's GDP would suffer a greater fall than Britain's GDP. And that Ireland would suffer food shortages.

Enzokk

Bloomberg is telling us that the EU is ready to consider a time limit on the backstop.

EU Ready to Consider Major U.K. Concession on Irish Backstop

I unfortunately cannot access the article but from the responses to a tweet that highlighted the article there is one caveat, Ireland has to agree to the time limit. So the EU will give us the chance to get the UK out of a hole that will hurt us now and in 2 or whatever years time the time limit ends.

And it will throw a current member under the bus, one that is a net contributor as well, for one looking to leave the union.

prawnsambo

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The "significant issues" in the paper were that Ireland's GDP would suffer a greater fall than Britain's GDP. And that Ireland would suffer food shortages.

Doesn't appear to have been a very well researched paper. Were they using the import figures from Dev's time again?

Nate--IRL--

Enzokk wrote: »

Bloomberg is telling us that the EU is ready to consider a time limit on the backstop.

EU Ready to Consider Major U.K. Concession on Irish Backstop

I unfortunately cannot access the article but from the responses to a tweet that highlighted the article there is one caveat, Ireland has to agree to the time limit. So the EU will give us the chance to get the UK out of a hole that will hurt us now and in 2 or whatever years time the time limit ends.

And it will throw a current member under the bus, one that is a net contributor as well, for one looking to leave the union.

"European Union governments have discussed giving the U.K. a major concession on Brexit by possibly time-limiting the contentious backstop mechanism for the Irish border, two people familiar with the matter said."


I'm calling bull**** on this one.


Nate

jimmycrackcorm

Patel, like many English, has no concept of how the Irish psyche responds to centuries of British dominance.

Probably also unaware that we import potatoes from Cyprus these days also.

Professor Moriarty

prawnsambo wrote: »

Doesn't appear to have been a very well researched paper. Were they using the import figures from Dev's time again?

Probably a kite flying exercise. The actual figures quoted were 7% drop for Ireland versus 5% for Britain. But nobody takes seriously anything the Tories say nowadays.

Professor Moriarty

Enzokk wrote: »

Bloomberg is telling us that the EU is ready to consider a time limit on the backstop.

EU Ready to Consider Major U.K. Concession on Irish Backstop

I unfortunately cannot access the article but from the responses to a tweet that highlighted the article there is one caveat, Ireland has to agree to the time limit. So the EU will give us the chance to get the UK out of a hole that will hurt us now and in 2 or whatever years time the time limit ends.

And it will throw a current member under the bus, one that is a net contributor as well, for one looking to leave the union.

Here you go:

European Union governments have discussed giving the U.K. a major concession on Brexit by possibly time-limiting the contentious backstop mechanism for the Irish border, two people familiar with the matter said.

The pound jumped as much as 0.4% to its highest level of the day was up 0.3% to $1.2321 at 5:57 p.m. in London.

A time limit -- something the EU has long said was out of the question -- would only be on offer if the U.K. accepted the backstop, which would keep Northern Ireland in a customs union with the bloc. Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who is planning to reveal his own proposals for the issue this week, has said he won’t accept the backstop, which was agreed to by his predecessor Theresa May but opposed by the British Parliament.

Any time limit granted by the EU could be linked to giving the Northern Ireland Assembly a say in whether the province remains in the backstop, which is designed to prevent a hard Irish border, the people said. Johnson’s refusal to accept the idea of the backstop suggests the EU concession won’t come into play, but it could do if the U.K. softens its stance, the people said.

Any concession to the U.K. on a time limit would have to be accepted by the Irish government and there has been no indication that it would be.

prawnsambo

Enzokk wrote: »

Bloomberg is telling us that the EU is ready to consider a time limit on the backstop.

EU Ready to Consider Major U.K. Concession on Irish Backstop

I unfortunately cannot access the article but from the responses to a tweet that highlighted the article there is one caveat, Ireland has to agree to the time limit. So the EU will give us the chance to get the UK out of a hole that will hurt us now and in 2 or whatever years time the time limit ends.

And it will throw a current member under the bus, one that is a net contributor as well, for one looking to leave the union.

Here's the salient bit from a very short article:

European Union governments have discussed giving the U.K. a major concession on Brexit by possibly time-limiting the contentious backstop mechanism for the Irish border, two people familiar with the matter said.
A time limit -- something the EU has long said was out of the question -- would only be on offer if the U.K. accepted the backstop, which would keep Northern Ireland in a customs union with the bloc.

Which two people I wonder. Afaik, Wishart (who wrote the piece) is based in the UK.

jimmycrackcorm

Nate--IRL-- wrote: »

"European Union governments have discussed giving the U.K. a major concession on Brexit by possibly time-limiting the contentious backstop mechanism for the Irish border, two people familiar with the matter said."


I'm calling bull**** on this one.


Nate

It's interesting though...
What happens after the backstop?
What if the thinking is that they're still be a comprehensive trade agreement, and at that point, the EU says, as part of that, the border issue has to be solved.

It's kicking the can down the road, but the can is still there

Igotadose

prawnsambo wrote: »

Here's the salient bit from a very short article:



Which two people I wonder. Afaik, Wishart (who wrote the piece) is based in the UK.

David Dennison and Boris Alexander?

This kind of junk's been out before, UK are good at ginning up false headlines.

Professor Moriarty

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

Patel, like many English, has no concept of how the Irish psyche responds to centuries of British dominance.

Probably also unaware that we import potatoes from Cyprus these days also.

She doesn't give a damn. She's beholden to business interests. Always has been.

briany

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

It's interesting though...
What happens after the backstop?
What if the thinking is that they're still be a comprehensive trade agreement, and at that point, the EU says, as part of that, the border issue has to be solved.

It's kicking the can down the road, but the can is still there

The British government is, I think, currently of the hope or belief that when the current game ends, that can will be quietly removed from the field of play.

prawnsambo

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

It's interesting though...
What happens after the backstop?
What if the thinking is that they're still be a comprehensive trade agreement, and at that point, the EU says, as part of that, the border issue has to be solved.

It's kicking the can down the road, but the can is still there

That can goes any further down the road than brexit day and it explodes. There's no way you could trust the UK to do any backstopping once they were out and free to cause trouble. And giving them the extra time of a TP without nailing down the backstop would be playing right into their hands.

Sam Russell

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

Patel, like many English, has no concept of how the Irish psyche responds to centuries of British dominance.

Probably also unaware that we import potatoes from Cyprus these days also.

Patel is of Ugandan Asian stock - kicked out by Idi Amin. I doubt that many of the CP would look on her as English - whatever else she might be considered to be.

prunudo

If the current extension is anything to go by they can't be trusted. Any time limited backstop will be wasted away and before you know it we're approaching the deadline.
There should be no movement on the backstop from the Irish governments.
Also to add, I don't believe they could get the WA through parliament even with the backstop time limited or gone. There are too many opposing views to get anyhing through at present.
Best outcome is a further extension followed by an GE.

briany

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

She wasn't just saying that there would be disruption, which would be true.

She wanted to use the threat of disruption to bully Ireland into dropping the backstop, quite different.

To take your definition of bullying, we could just as easily say that reminding the UK of the potential security risks of a hard Irish border is also bullying in order to get the UK to drop red lines, that it's also a threat. That's how Brexiteers would certainly take it.

If you want to say that the UK would go above and beyond the measures that are involved in observing WTO trade rules to make Ireland suffer, then that's a different story, but that's not what I heard in Patel's words.

Strazdas

Nate--IRL-- wrote: »

"European Union governments have discussed giving the U.K. a major concession on Brexit by possibly time-limiting the contentious backstop mechanism for the Irish border, two people familiar with the matter said."


I'm calling bull**** on this one.


Nate

Simon Coveney said on Drivetime he would be completely opposed to a time limit (he says there would be nothing to stop the UK simply running down the clock to the end date and then changing all the arrangements).

briany

prunudo wrote: »

If the current extension is anything to go by they can't be trusted. Any time limited backstop will be wasted away and before you know it we're approaching the deadline.
There should be no movement on the backstop from the Irish governments.
Also to add, I don't believe they could get the WA through parliament even with the backstop time limited or gone. There are too many opposing views to get anyhing through at present.
Best outcome is a further extension followed by an GE.

Yeah, the UK would definitely sit on its hands and wait out the clock. It would be far easier for them just to sit on their hands then it would to come up with an innovative solution.

Whenever you see the idea of a time limit being kicked around, you want to ask what happens at the end? Not a question I think there's an acceptable answer for.

ath262

Phil Hogan approved as EU trade commissioner by INTA

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1179083869494169600

according to a report in German - with some homework for him

https://twitter.com/berndlange/status/1178990170613407745

"Phil #Hogan delivered # 2-3 in the #Hearing to the #Commercial Commissioner, no mistakes, but sometimes a bit vague and not very clear pledges. Now there will be a letter of approval tomorrow, which will include some homework"

A Shropshire Lad

Sam Russell wrote: »

Patel is of Ugandan Asian stock - kicked out by Idi Amin. I doubt that many of the CP would look on her as English - whatever else she might be considered to be.

She sounds well posh to me !

Capt'n Midnight

Not even kite flying unless it's to keep the DUP on side.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-01/eu-ready-to-consider-time-limit-on-irish-backstop-in-brexit-deal

Any time limit granted by the EU could be linked to giving the Northern Ireland Assembly a say in whether the province remains in the backstop the people said.

This would effectively hand a veto to them through exploiting the Petition Of Concern. Just needs TUV and some UUP to align with them against the common enemy.


https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/dup-under-fire-on-scrapping-petition-of-concern-1-7823991

During the 2011 to 2016 Assembly, there were 118 petitions of concerns used.

Investigative website The Detail analysed 115 last November, and found DUP members had signed 86 – almost three times more than second-biggest users Sinn Fein.

An Ciarraioch

Johnson admits to Laura Kuenssberg that customs checks would be required:

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1179063447398563840

CelticRambler

Enzokk wrote: »

Bloomberg is telling us that the EU is ready to consider a time limit on the backstop.

A time limit -- something the EU has long said was out of the question -- would only be on offer if the U.K. accepted a backstop which would keep Northern Ireland in a customs union with the bloc. Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who is planning to reveal his own proposals for the issue this week, has said he won’t allow the U.K. to be trapped in the backstop, which was agreed to by his predecessor Theresa May but opposed by the British Parliament.



The discussions on a time limit haven’t found their way into the negotiating room but have taken place between major EU capitals including Paris and Berlin, one of the people said. Any backstop concession could only come if the U.K. and EU could rebuild trust. It wouldn’t be the starting point of a new negotiations, according to the second person.



“The EU is not considering this option at all,” a European Commission spokesman said. “We are waiting for the U.K. to come forward with a legally operational solution that meets all the objectives of the backstop.”

Unnamed sources, Paris and Berlin involved in off-the-books discussions, suspiciously convenient solution just before the deadline, EU saying "it's news to us ..." I'm sure I saw this episode already! :rolleyes:

An Ciarraioch

Not to mention that Johnson has no interest in an NI backstop, time-limited or otherwise.

Professor Moriarty

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

The damage has been done however by this fake news. Newstalk going on about how EU is about to throw Ireland under the bus.

Which helps fuel eurosceptics here even though it's obviously fake news.

EU spokesperson this afternoon:

"The EU is not considering this option at all. We are waiting for the U.K. to come forward with a legally operational solution that meets all the objectives of the backstop."

Tell me how

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

The damage has been done however by this fake news. Newstalk going on about how EU is about to throw Ireland under the bus.

Which helps fuel eurosceptics here even though it's obviously fake news.

Who on NT is saying this?

They often have Edwina Currie on who parrots this line ad nauseum. That is not the same as the station presenting a line that the EU are about to capitulate to UK demands.